| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/2 | GP | 1 1/16 D | MSW | 4th/7 -2½L | 69 | 6.6-1 | Early bid;no cls kick | |
| 8/31 | GP | 6f D | sMdSpWt | 3rd/6 -6L | 67 | 5.9-1 | 3w turn; mild rally | |
| 8/9 | GP | 5½f D | sMdSpWt | 5th/7 -7L | 67 | 6.0-1 | b | Jostled st;no threat |
| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11 | GP | 1 1/16 D | MCL 35k | 4th/10 -5½L | 62 | 4.8-1 | b | Chased rail; ran on |
| 9/19 | GP | 5f D | MSW | 3rd/5 -3L | 66 | 4.8-1 | b | Tracked;lack clsng bid |
| 8/15 | GP | 5f D | MSW | 4th/6 -5L | 59 | 4.8-1 | b | Lean out st;5wd;no bid |
| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11 | GP | 1 1/16 D | MCL 35k | 5th/10 -13L | 61 | 8.1-1 | Bmp'd st; gaining 5wd | |
| 10/2 | GP | 1 1/16 D | MSW | 7th/7 -6L | 63 | 7.5-1 | Prompt; through early; | |
| 9/6 | GP | 1 1/16 D | Moc50000 | 6th/7 -1½L | 65 | 9.8-1 | Stmbl'd st; boxed in |
| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/18 | GP | 5f D | MCL 35k | 5th/7 -4½L | 67 | 16-1 | b | Bumped st; inside |
1New Friend▼Ran 5thY. Torres · J. D'AngeloTorres · D'AngeloB62 66 59►6-1Fair 7-221%
► Steady62 66 59B▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 782Card model 21% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 62 66 59
▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 78Jockey Yolber Torres 32% career 0-for-24 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Jose Francisco D'Angelo 37% career ★ 8-for-37 on turf this meet (22%)Also today · Jockey R6: Starship Stella 5-2, R9: Brutally Honest 6-1, R10: American Tact 20-1 · Trainer this race: No Love Lost 10-1, R5: Alpenglow 7-2, R6: Starship Cougar 4-1, R6: Starship Stella 5-2 +4 moreSwitches from dirt to turf. Was running in maiden claiming $35,000; today's maiden claiming $25,000 is an easier level on paper.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.WORKS SHARP 5f in 1:02.00 on Aug 8 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30dRECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts hereRECORD Yolber Torres from post 1 here: 14 wins, 48 top-3 in 117 rides · 10% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/11 GP 1 1/16 D MCL 35k 4th/10 -5½L 62 4.8-1 b Chased rail; ran on 9/19 GP 5f D MSW 3rd/5 -3L 66 4.8-1 b Tracked;lack clsng bid 8/15 GP 5f D MSW 4th/6 -5L 59 4.8-1 b Lean out st;5wd;no bid 2Fight and Pray▼Ran 2ndD. Herrera · A. SanoHerrera · SanoC61 63 65▼-3≡6-1Fair 5-117%
▼ Down -361 63 65 ≡C▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 783Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -3 · ≡ Steady figures 61–65 · Last 3 figs 61 63 65
▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 78Jockey Diego A Herrera 27% career 8-for-56 on turf this meet (14%) · Trainer Antonio Sano 26% career 0-for-17 on turf this meet (0%)Also today · Jockey R2: Golden Ambition 9-2, R3: Rudi 3-1, R4: Wannabeeloved 9-5, R5: Chance To Party 12-1 +4 more · Trainer R3: Rudi 3-1, R9: Champagne Brunch 30-1Jky 20/69 from post 2Beaten 13 lengths for 5th in a 10-horse maiden claiming $35,000 race at GP. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 65 against a 78 par.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Bmp'd st; gaining 5wd), and the figure already reflects it.WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 7d backRECORD Not on the board in 4 starts hereRECORD Diego A Herrera from post 2 here: 20 wins, 33 top-3 in 69 rides · 20% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/11 GP 1 1/16 D MCL 35k 5th/10 -13L 61 8.1-1 Bmp'd st; gaining 5wd 10/2 GP 1 1/16 D MSW 7th/7 -6L 63 7.5-1 Prompt; through early; 9/6 GP 1 1/16 D Moc50000 6th/7 -1½L 65 9.8-1 Stmbl'd st; boxed in 3No Love Lost▼L. Reyes · J. D'AngeloReyes · D'AngeloB6510-1<1%
—65B▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 78Card model <1% · Our #9 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 65
▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 78Jockey Leonel Reyes 30% career ★ 13-for-55 on turf this meet (24%), #3 of 20 · Trainer Jose Francisco D'Angelo 37% career ★ 8-for-37 on turf this meet (22%)Also today · Jockey R2: Deuxieme Chance 9-5, R3: Fifteen Hundred R 5-1, R5: Alpenglow 7-2, R6: Cipresa 9-2 +5 more · Trainer this race: New Friend 6-1, R5: Alpenglow 7-2, R6: Starship Cougar 4-1, R6: Starship Stella 5-2 +4 moreGoes a mile after running 5 furlongs last time. Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 21 days agoRECORD Leonel Reyes from post 3 here: 49 wins, 156 top-3 in 332 rides · 13% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/18 GP 5f D MCL 35k 6th/7 -5L 65 10-1 b 2w; no threat 4Bandari▼J. Morelos · F. GutierrezMorelos · GutierrezA70 67 70►@trip 673-1<1%
► Steady70 67 70@trip 67A▼ Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 78Card model <1% · Our #7 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 67 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 70 67 70
▼ Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 78Jockey Jose E Morelos 29% career 2-for-28 on turf this meet (7%) · Trainer Faustio Gutierrez 32% career 2-for-9 on turf this meet (22%)Also today · Jockey R2: Freedom Street 6-1, R3: Lighting Arrow 6-1, R4: Friolento 12-1, R6: Bashfully 5-1 +3 more · Trainer R11: Bourbon Dream 15-13/3 board hereDrops from maiden claiming $35,000 to maiden claiming $25,000. A 70 is the high figure lately, short of the 78 par.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.TROUBLED TRIP Split horses; 5wd rally last out; the speed figure already reflects it.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 61 days agoRECORD On the board in all 3 starts here (0 wins)RECORD Jose E Morelos from post 4 here: 22 wins, 85 top-3 in 271 rides · 11% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/11 GP 1 1/16 D MCL 35k 3rd/10 -6½L 70 2.8-1 Split horses;5wd rally 9/27 GP 1m T MCL 25kc 2nd/7 67 2.3-1 Pace;kick;overtaken 9/5 GP 7½f T MCL 25k 2nd/8 -½L 70 30-1 Steady advance; 2d bst 5Slew Vinbiz▼S. Leon · K. O'ConnellLeon · O'ConnellA724-1<1%
—72A▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 78Card model <1% · Our #8 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 72
▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 78Jockey Sonny Leon 29% career 2-for-22 on turf this meet (9%) · Trainer Kathleen O'Connell 32% career 1-for-5 on turf this meetAlso today · Jockey R2: Ky's Law 10-1, R3: Henry's Buddy 9-5, R7: Indian Pharoah 8-1, R8: Velociraptor 4-1 +2 more · Trainer R6: Lady Bluesville 20-1Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here. Class relief: maiden claiming $35,000 last time, maiden claiming $25,000 today.
EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 7d agoRECORD Sonny Leon from post 5 here: 5 wins, 20 top-3 in 63 rides · 11% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/11 GP 1 1/16 D MCL 35k 2nd/10 -3L 72 30-1 b Rail bid; late gain 6Chief Lion▼Ran 3rdM. Meneses · A. SanchezMeneses · SanchezC528-1Fair 5-116%
—52C▼ Best fig 52 is 5+ under today's par 78Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 52
▼ Best fig 52 is 5+ under today's par 78Jockey Marcos Meneses 27% career 5-for-26 on turf this meet (19%) · Trainer Amador Merei Sanchez 34% career 0-for-1 on turf this meetAlso today · Jockey R2: Leo's Rocket 5-1, R5: Flowko 6-1, R8: Java Buzz 12-1, R9: Ditched 10-1 +1 more · Trainer R4: Wannabeeloved 9-5, R8: Velociraptor 4-13 WORKS IN 30 DAYSQuick turnaround, just 8 days since the last start. Finished 8th in an 8-horse maiden special weight race at GP, beaten 11 lengths.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 3 works in 30d and the last 14d backRECORD Marcos Meneses from post 6 here: 12 wins, 40 top-3 in 99 rides · 11% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/23 GP 6f D MSW 8th/8 -11L 52 44-1 Bmp brk;3p;no factor 7Mr. Hetty▼LSRan 1stJ. Torrealba · P. BianconeTorrealba · BianconeB678-1Fair 5-116%
—67B▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 78LSCard model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 67
▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 78LSLongshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 16% against a line of 9%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Jg Torrealba 31% career 4-for-21 on turf this meet (19%) · Trainer Patrick L Biancone 28% career 2-for-11 on turf this meet (18%)Also today · Jockey R4: Brother Brad 5-1, R5: Laila Bella Girl 6-1, R6: Starship Cougar 4-1, R7: Caribbean Comet 20-1 +2 more · Trainer R7: Caribbean Comet 20-1, R11: Redland Rebels 3-1◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLEStretches out from 5 furlongs to a mile. Best recent figure is 67, well under the 78 par for this level.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Bumped st; inside), and the figure already reflects it.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 16d agoRECORD Jg Torrealba from post 7 here: 3 wins, 7 top-3 in 16 rides · 14% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/18 GP 5f D MCL 35k 5th/7 -4½L 67 16-1 b Bumped st; inside 8Save Our Soul▼Ran 6thC. Martinez · G. JamesMartinez · JamesC48 63 56▼▼-12@trip 6315-1Fair 30-13%
▼▼ Big drop -1248 63 56@trip 63C▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 78Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -12 · Best fig at today's trip 63 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 48 63 56
▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 78Jockey Carlos Martinez 33% career 1-for-14 on turf this meet (7%) · Trainer Gerald James 15% career 0-for-2 on turf this meetJky 0/15 from post 8Carlos Martinez takes over from Rasheed Hughes in the saddle. Carries 113 pounds, 7 less than last time.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: 5wd trip; no rally. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 57d back)RECORD Not on the board in 3 starts hereRECORD Carlos Martinez has never won from post 8 here (4 top-3 in 15 rides) · 7% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/11 GP 1 1/16 D MCL 35k 9th/10 -17L 48 26-1 b 5wd trip; no rally 9/27 GP 1m T MCL 25k 4th/7 -1¼L 63 20-1 b Bid ins; flattened out 9/12 GP 7f D MSW 8th/8 -11L 56 52-1 b No factor; outrun 9Etruscan WarriorRan 4thN. Juarez · N. PalmerJuarez · PalmerA69 67 67▼-39-2Fair 5-228%
▼ Down -369 67 67A1Card model 28% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -3 · Last 3 figs 69 67 67
Jockey Nik Juarez 30% career 0-for-8 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Nicholas Palmer 23% career 0-for-6 on turf this meetBest Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 83, with 72 next best. Gets a new rider, Nik Juarez replacing Marcos Meneses.
PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 6)WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 7d agoRECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 5 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/2 GP 1 1/16 D MSW 4th/7 -2½L 69 6.6-1 Early bid;no cls kick 8/31 GP 6f D sMdSpWt 3rd/6 -6L 67 5.9-1 3w turn; mild rally 8/9 GP 5½f D sMdSpWt 5th/7 -7L 67 6.0-1 b Jostled st;no threat
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: #9 is the only true speed and could control it.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
● Official result
$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below
Our top pick, #9 Etruscan Warrior, finished 4th.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
GULFSTREAM PARK · RACE 1
OFFICIALMaiden Claiming $25,000
Maiden Claiming, for 2-year-olds.
Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.
● Track record at 1 Mile: 91.41
The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.
Our number tops on #9 Etruscan Warrior (early speed, M/L 9-2). Recent figures: 69 · 67 · 67. Backup is #1 New Friend at 6-1. Use #2 Fight And Pray in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
● OUTCOME · OUT
Mr. Hetty won (our #4) · top pick Etruscan Warrior ran 4th
What didn't
- ✗ Top pick off the board (4th)
- ✗ Winner was outside our top 3 (our #4)
- ✗ Our top 3 finished 4th, 5th, 2nd
TBredIQ ranking → finish
| #1 | #9 ETRUSCAN WARRIOR | 4th |
| #2 | #1 NEW FRIEND | 5th |
| #3 | #2 FIGHT AND PRAY | 2nd |
| #4 | #7 MR. HETTY | 1st |
| #5 | #6 CHIEF LION | 3rd |
Actual finish
| 1st | #7 Mr. Hetty | our #4 |
| 2nd | #2 Fight and Pray | our #3 |
| 3rd | #6 Chief Lion | our #5 |
| 4th | #9 Etruscan Warrior | our #1 |
| 5th | #1 New Friend | our #2 |
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #4 BANDARI (3-1) — our number has it ranked #7.
- #9 ETRUSCAN WARRIOR — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 24.6%, they've got 14.1%.
- #1 NEW FRIEND — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 19.3%, they've got 11.0%.
- #2 FIGHT AND PRAY — our #3 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 19.0%, they've got 11.0%.
Model vs the morning line
- #9 ETRUSCAN WARRIOR — we make it 24.6%, the morning line works out to 14.1%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
- #1 NEW FRIEND — we make it 19.3%, the morning line works out to 11.0%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
- #2 FIGHT AND PRAY — we make it 19.0%, the morning line works out to 11.0%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
- Longshot the model rates above its line: #7 MR. HETTY (8-1) — our fair 15.6% is above the morning line's 8.6%; supported by: last out: "Bumped st; inside" — trouble the figure under-credits
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #9 Etruscan Warrior; pressure from #4 Bandari; the shape helps #1 New Friend, #2 Fight And Pray, #4 Bandari; and works against #3 No Love Lost, #6 Chief Lion, #7 Mr. Hetty.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
$1 DAILY DOUBLE / $1 EXACTA / $.50 TRIFECTA / $.10 SUPERFECTA
$1.00 BET 3 (RACES 1-2-3) / $.50 PICK 5 (RACES 1-2-3-4-5)
BET OPTIONS
WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta