Pick sheet
Race 112:00 PM Md 25000
1 Mi · Turf · 9 entered. Our model's top pick, Etruscan Warrior, is 28% to win (morning line implies 24%). Pace: #9 is the only true speed and could control it.
Top pick #9 Etruscan Warrior ML 9-2 Fair 5-2 Model #1 ▼ Down -3 Blinkers off
Jockey N. Juarez · Trainer N. Palmer · 29 days off
DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
10/2GP1 1/16 DMSW4th/7 -2½L696.6-1Early bid;no cls kick
8/31GP6f DsMdSpWt3rd/6 -6L675.9-13w turn; mild rally
8/9GP5½f DsMdSpWt5th/7 -7L676.0-1bJostled st;no threat
Case: Last out 4th/7 -2½L in the MdSpWt at GP. Last Brisnet figures 69-67-67. N. Palmer / N. Juarez.
Knock: Never raced at Gulfstream Park.
Contender #1 New Friend ML 6-1 Fair 7-2 Model #2 ► Steady ▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 78
Jockey Y. Torres · Trainer J. D'Angelo · 20 days off
DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
10/11GP1 1/16 DMCL 35k4th/10 -5½L624.8-1bChased rail; ran on
9/19GP5f DMSW3rd/5 -3L664.8-1bTracked;lack clsng bid
8/15GP5f DMSW4th/6 -5L594.8-1bLean out st;5wd;no bid
Case: Last out 4th/10 -5½L in the Md35000 at GP. Last Brisnet figures 62-66-59. J. D'Angelo / Y. Torres.
Knock: Never raced at Gulfstream Park.
Use #2 Fight and Pray ML 6-1 Fair 5-1 Model #3 ▼ Down -3 ≡ Steady 61–65 ▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 78 1st-time blinkers Last out 5th/10 -13L in the Md35000 at GP. Last Brisnet figures 61-63-65. 0-for-1 at Gulfstream Park. A. Sano / D. Herrera. Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.
Jockey D. Herrera · Trainer A. Sano · KEE 1: 0-0-0 · 20 days off
DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
10/11GP1 1/16 DMCL 35k5th/10 -13L618.1-1Bmp'd st; gaining 5wd
10/2GP1 1/16 DMSW7th/7 -6L637.5-1Prompt; through early;
9/6GP1 1/16 DMoc500006th/7 -1½L659.8-1Stmbl'd st; boxed in
Longshot #7 Mr. Hetty ML 8-1 Fair 5-1 Model #4 ▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 78
Jockey J. Torrealba · Trainer P. Biancone · 13 days off
DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
10/18GP5f DMCL 35k5th/7 -4½L6716-1bBumped st; inside
Case: Last out 5th/7 -4½L in the Md35000 at GP. Last Brisnet figures 67. P. Biancone / J. Torrealba.
Knock: Never raced this far (longest 5f). Never raced at Gulfstream Park.
Narrowing the field: A #4, #5, #9 · B #1, #3, #7 · C #2, #6, #8
Angles: #1 Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 78 · #2 Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 78 · #3 Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 78 · #4 Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 78 · #5 Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 78 · #6 Best fig 52 is 5+ under today's par 78 · #7 Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 78 · #8 Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 78

R1 Gulfstream Park · Maiden Claiming $25,000

12:00 PM ET · 1 Mile Turf · $30,000 · 6 runners (3 out)12:00 PM · 1m Turf · 6 runners (3 out)

Official $30K · Maiden Claiming $25,000

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles
  1. 1New Friend▼Ran 5thY. Torres · J. D'AngeloTorres · D'AngeloB62 66 59►6-1Fair 7-221%► Steady62 66 59B▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 782

    Card model 21% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 62 66 59

    ▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 78
    Jockey Yolber Torres 32% career 0-for-24 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Jose Francisco D'Angelo 37% career ★ 8-for-37 on turf this meet (22%)
    Also today · Jockey R6: Starship Stella 5-2, R9: Brutally Honest 6-1, R10: American Tact 20-1 · Trainer this race: No Love Lost 10-1, R5: Alpenglow 7-2, R6: Starship Cougar 4-1, R6: Starship Stella 5-2 +4 more

    Switches from dirt to turf. Was running in maiden claiming $35,000; today's maiden claiming $25,000 is an easier level on paper.

    PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
    WORKS SHARP 5f in 1:02.00 on Aug 8 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30d
    RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts here
    RECORD Yolber Torres from post 1 here: 14 wins, 48 top-3 in 117 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/11GP1 1/16 DMCL 35k4th/10 -5½L624.8-1bChased rail; ran on
    9/19GP5f DMSW3rd/5 -3L664.8-1bTracked;lack clsng bid
    8/15GP5f DMSW4th/6 -5L594.8-1bLean out st;5wd;no bid
  2. 2Fight and Pray▼Ran 2ndD. Herrera · A. SanoHerrera · SanoC61 63 65▼-3≡6-1Fair 5-117%▼ Down -361 63 65 ≡C▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 783

    Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -3 · ≡ Steady figures 61–65 · Last 3 figs 61 63 65

    ▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 78
    Jockey Diego A Herrera 27% career 8-for-56 on turf this meet (14%) · Trainer Antonio Sano 26% career 0-for-17 on turf this meet (0%)
    Also today · Jockey R2: Golden Ambition 9-2, R3: Rudi 3-1, R4: Wannabeeloved 9-5, R5: Chance To Party 12-1 +4 more · Trainer R3: Rudi 3-1, R9: Champagne Brunch 30-1
    Jky 20/69 from post 2

    Beaten 13 lengths for 5th in a 10-horse maiden claiming $35,000 race at GP. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 65 against a 78 par.

    PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
    TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Bmp'd st; gaining 5wd), and the figure already reflects it.
    WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 7d back
    RECORD Not on the board in 4 starts here
    RECORD Diego A Herrera from post 2 here: 20 wins, 33 top-3 in 69 rides · 20% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/11GP1 1/16 DMCL 35k5th/10 -13L618.1-1Bmp'd st; gaining 5wd
    10/2GP1 1/16 DMSW7th/7 -6L637.5-1Prompt; through early;
    9/6GP1 1/16 DMoc500006th/7 -1½L659.8-1Stmbl'd st; boxed in
  3. 3No Love Lost▼L. Reyes · J. D'AngeloReyes · D'AngeloB6510-1<1%—65B▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 78

    Card model <1% · Our #9 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 65

    ▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 78
    Jockey Leonel Reyes 30% career ★ 13-for-55 on turf this meet (24%), #3 of 20 · Trainer Jose Francisco D'Angelo 37% career ★ 8-for-37 on turf this meet (22%)
    Also today · Jockey R2: Deuxieme Chance 9-5, R3: Fifteen Hundred R 5-1, R5: Alpenglow 7-2, R6: Cipresa 9-2 +5 more · Trainer this race: New Friend 6-1, R5: Alpenglow 7-2, R6: Starship Cougar 4-1, R6: Starship Stella 5-2 +4 more

    Goes a mile after running 5 furlongs last time. Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 21 days ago
    RECORD Leonel Reyes from post 3 here: 49 wins, 156 top-3 in 332 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/18GP5f DMCL 35k6th/7 -5L6510-1b2w; no threat
  4. 4Bandari▼J. Morelos · F. GutierrezMorelos · GutierrezA70 67 70►@trip 673-1<1%► Steady70 67 70@trip 67A▼ Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 78

    Card model <1% · Our #7 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 67 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 70 67 70

    ▼ Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 78
    Jockey Jose E Morelos 29% career 2-for-28 on turf this meet (7%) · Trainer Faustio Gutierrez 32% career 2-for-9 on turf this meet (22%)
    Also today · Jockey R2: Freedom Street 6-1, R3: Lighting Arrow 6-1, R4: Friolento 12-1, R6: Bashfully 5-1 +3 more · Trainer R11: Bourbon Dream 15-1
    3/3 board here

    Drops from maiden claiming $35,000 to maiden claiming $25,000. A 70 is the high figure lately, short of the 78 par.

    PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
    TROUBLED TRIP Split horses; 5wd rally last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 61 days ago
    RECORD On the board in all 3 starts here (0 wins)
    RECORD Jose E Morelos from post 4 here: 22 wins, 85 top-3 in 271 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/11GP1 1/16 DMCL 35k3rd/10 -6½L702.8-1Split horses;5wd rally
    9/27GP1m TMCL 25kc2nd/7672.3-1Pace;kick;overtaken
    9/5GP7½f TMCL 25k2nd/8 -½L7030-1Steady advance; 2d bst
  5. 5Slew Vinbiz▼S. Leon · K. O'ConnellLeon · O'ConnellA724-1<1%—72A▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 78

    Card model <1% · Our #8 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 72

    ▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 78
    Jockey Sonny Leon 29% career 2-for-22 on turf this meet (9%) · Trainer Kathleen O'Connell 32% career 1-for-5 on turf this meet
    Also today · Jockey R2: Ky's Law 10-1, R3: Henry's Buddy 9-5, R7: Indian Pharoah 8-1, R8: Velociraptor 4-1 +2 more · Trainer R6: Lady Bluesville 20-1

    Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here. Class relief: maiden claiming $35,000 last time, maiden claiming $25,000 today.

    EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.
    WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 7d ago
    RECORD Sonny Leon from post 5 here: 5 wins, 20 top-3 in 63 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/11GP1 1/16 DMCL 35k2nd/10 -3L7230-1bRail bid; late gain
  6. 6Chief Lion▼Ran 3rdM. Meneses · A. SanchezMeneses · SanchezC528-1Fair 5-116%—52C▼ Best fig 52 is 5+ under today's par 78

    Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 52

    ▼ Best fig 52 is 5+ under today's par 78
    Jockey Marcos Meneses 27% career 5-for-26 on turf this meet (19%) · Trainer Amador Merei Sanchez 34% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet
    Also today · Jockey R2: Leo's Rocket 5-1, R5: Flowko 6-1, R8: Java Buzz 12-1, R9: Ditched 10-1 +1 more · Trainer R4: Wannabeeloved 9-5, R8: Velociraptor 4-1
    3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

    Quick turnaround, just 8 days since the last start. Finished 8th in an 8-horse maiden special weight race at GP, beaten 11 lengths.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 3 works in 30d and the last 14d back
    RECORD Marcos Meneses from post 6 here: 12 wins, 40 top-3 in 99 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/23GP6f DMSW8th/8 -11L5244-1Bmp brk;3p;no factor
  7. 7Mr. Hetty▼LSRan 1stJ. Torrealba · P. BianconeTorrealba · BianconeB678-1Fair 5-116%—67B▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 78LS

    Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 67

    ▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 78LS

    Longshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 16% against a line of 9%. A read, not a bet.

    Jockey Jg Torrealba 31% career 4-for-21 on turf this meet (19%) · Trainer Patrick L Biancone 28% career 2-for-11 on turf this meet (18%)
    Also today · Jockey R4: Brother Brad 5-1, R5: Laila Bella Girl 6-1, R6: Starship Cougar 4-1, R7: Caribbean Comet 20-1 +2 more · Trainer R7: Caribbean Comet 20-1, R11: Redland Rebels 3-1
    ◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE

    Stretches out from 5 furlongs to a mile. Best recent figure is 67, well under the 78 par for this level.

    PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
    TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Bumped st; inside), and the figure already reflects it.
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 16d ago
    RECORD Jg Torrealba from post 7 here: 3 wins, 7 top-3 in 16 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/18GP5f DMCL 35k5th/7 -4½L6716-1bBumped st; inside
  8. 8Save Our Soul▼Ran 6thC. Martinez · G. JamesMartinez · JamesC48 63 56▼▼-12@trip 6315-1Fair 30-13%▼▼ Big drop -1248 63 56@trip 63C▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 78

    Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -12 · Best fig at today's trip 63 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 48 63 56

    ▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 78
    Jockey Carlos Martinez 33% career 1-for-14 on turf this meet (7%) · Trainer Gerald James 15% career 0-for-2 on turf this meet
    Also today · Jockey R2: Value Inthe Clouds 20-1
    Jky 0/15 from post 8

    Carlos Martinez takes over from Rasheed Hughes in the saddle. Carries 113 pounds, 7 less than last time.

    PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
    TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: 5wd trip; no rally. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 57d back)
    RECORD Not on the board in 3 starts here
    RECORD Carlos Martinez has never won from post 8 here (4 top-3 in 15 rides) · 7% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/11GP1 1/16 DMCL 35k9th/10 -17L4826-1b5wd trip; no rally
    9/27GP1m TMCL 25k4th/7 -1¼L6320-1bBid ins; flattened out
    9/12GP7f DMSW8th/8 -11L5652-1bNo factor; outrun
  9. 9Etruscan WarriorRan 4thN. Juarez · N. PalmerJuarez · PalmerA69 67 67▼-39-2Fair 5-228%▼ Down -369 67 67A1

    Card model 28% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -3 · Last 3 figs 69 67 67

    Jockey Nik Juarez 30% career 0-for-8 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Nicholas Palmer 23% career 0-for-6 on turf this meet
    Also today · Jockey R5: Tizasweetlady 10-1, R10: Forty Love 2-1, R11: Justin Smiles 20-1

    Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 83, with 72 next best. Gets a new rider, Nik Juarez replacing Marcos Meneses.

    PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 6)
    WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 7d ago
    RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 5 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/2GP1 1/16 DMSW4th/7 -2½L696.6-1Early bid;no cls kick
    8/31GP6f DsMdSpWt3rd/6 -6L675.9-13w turn; mild rally
    8/9GP5½f DsMdSpWt5th/7 -7L676.0-1bJostled st;no threat

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: #9 is the only true speed and could control it.

How to read these marks
1 2 3
Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair
The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?
The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72
Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕
≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★
Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips
Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #9 Etruscan Warrior, finished 4th.

1st7Mr. HettyWin$8.40Place$3.60Show$4.00Our #4
2nd2Fight And PrayWin—Place$4.00Show$2.80Our #3
3rd6Chief LionWin—Place—Show$4.80Our #5
4th9Etruscan WarriorOur #1
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
¼½¾FINISHSTART1 MILE · TURF · infield2-turn

GULFSTREAM PARK · RACE 1

OFFICIAL

Maiden Claiming $25,000

Field
9 runners
Purse
$30,000
Post
12:00 PM ET
Pace
Pressed Pace
Card model top pick
#9 · 28%

Maiden Claiming, for 2-year-olds.

Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.

● Track record at 1 Mile: 91.41

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #9 Etruscan Warrior (early speed, M/L 9-2). Recent figures: 69 · 67 · 67. Backup is #1 New Friend at 6-1. Use #2 Fight And Pray in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · OUT

Mr. Hetty won (our #4) · top pick Etruscan Warrior ran 4th

What didn't

  • ✗ Top pick off the board (4th)
  • ✗ Winner was outside our top 3 (our #4)
  • ✗ Our top 3 finished 4th, 5th, 2nd

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1#9 ETRUSCAN WARRIOR4th
#2#1 NEW FRIEND5th
#3#2 FIGHT AND PRAY2nd
#4#7 MR. HETTY1st
#5#6 CHIEF LION3rd

Actual finish

1st#7 Mr. Hettyour #4
2nd#2 Fight and Prayour #3
3rd#6 Chief Lionour #5
4th#9 Etruscan Warriorour #1
5th#1 New Friendour #2
At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

  • Market favourite #4 BANDARI (3-1) — our number has it ranked #7.
  • #9 ETRUSCAN WARRIOR — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 24.6%, they've got 14.1%.
  • #1 NEW FRIEND — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 19.3%, they've got 11.0%.
  • #2 FIGHT AND PRAY — our #3 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 19.0%, they've got 11.0%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

  • #9 ETRUSCAN WARRIOR — we make it 24.6%, the morning line works out to 14.1%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
  • #1 NEW FRIEND — we make it 19.3%, the morning line works out to 11.0%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
  • #2 FIGHT AND PRAY — we make it 19.0%, the morning line works out to 11.0%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
  • Longshot the model rates above its line: #7 MR. HETTY (8-1) — our fair 15.6% is above the morning line's 8.6%; supported by: last out: "Bumped st; inside" — trouble the figure under-credits
Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #9 Etruscan Warrior; pressure from #4 Bandari; the shape helps #1 New Friend, #2 Fight And Pray, #4 Bandari; and works against #3 No Love Lost, #6 Chief Lion, #7 Mr. Hetty.

Lead
9Etruscan Warrior75
Press
4Bandari77
Stalk
1New Friend822Fight And Pray728Save Our Soul71
Close
5Slew Vinbiz80
No style yet
6Chief Lion817Mr. Hetty803No Love Lost78

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

1
New Friend
82
4
Bandari
77
9
Etruscan Warrior
75
2
Fight And Pray
72
8
Save Our Soul
71

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

5
Slew Vinbiz
21
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Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

$1 DAILY DOUBLE / $1 EXACTA / $.50 TRIFECTA / $.10 SUPERFECTA

$1.00 BET 3 (RACES 1-2-3) / $.50 PICK 5 (RACES 1-2-3-4-5)

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

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