Pick sheet

Race 73:25 PM ArmdForceB75k

1 Mi · Turf · 9 entered. Our model's top pick, Sushi Party, is 39% to win (morning line implies 36%). Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #3 Sushi Party ML 5-2 Fair 8-5 Model #1 ▼ Best fig 78 is 5+ under today's par 83

Jockey C. Gil · Trainer H. Motion · Dist 1: 1-0-0 · 51 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/10	DEL	7½f T	MSW	Won/9 by hd	78	2.3-1		Tracked ins; rallied
8/14	PID	5½f D	MSW	2nd/6 -½L	56	2.8-1		Bid;led;outkick;2d bst

Case: Last out won in the MdSpWt at DEL. Last Brisnet figures 78-56. 1-for-1 at the distance. H. Motion / C. Gil.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 7½f). Never raced at Gulfstream Park.

Contender #8 Lord Henry ML 7-2 Fair 3-1 Model #2 ► Steady ▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 83

Jockey D. Herrera · Trainer J. Orseno · KEE 3: 1-1-0 · Dist 1: 1-0-0 · 35 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	GP	5f T	HlywdBchB100k	6th/8 -2½L	71	11-1		Passed tiring rivals
8/10	GP	7½f T	sMdSpWt	Won/6	76	0.7-1		Tracked; bid; clear
7/13	GP	5f T	MSW	2nd/6 -5½L	68	4.3-1	b	Awkward st; 3wd rally

Case: Last out 6th/8 -2½L in the HlywdBchB100k at GP. Last Brisnet figures 71-76-68. 1-for-1 at the distance. 1-for-3 at Gulfstream Park. J. Orseno / D. Herrera.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 7½f). Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Use #9 Mitzman ML 8-1 Fair 5-1 Model #3 ▼ Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 83 Last out won in the MdSpWt at GP. Last Brisnet figures 77-65. J. D'Angelo / L. Reyes. Knock: Never raced at Gulfstream Park.

Jockey L. Reyes · Trainer J. D'Angelo · 29 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	GP	1 1/16 D	MSW	Won/7 by 1½	77	2.2-1	b	Stdy adv;held safe
8/30	GP	1 1/16 D	MSW	4th/8 -8½L	65	6.6-1	b	Broke in; hit gate

Narrowing the field: A #1, #3, #6 · B #5, #8, #9 · C #2, #4, #7

Angles: #1 Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 83 · #2 Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 83 · #3 Best fig 78 is 5+ under today's par 83 · #4 Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 83 · #5 Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 83 · #7 Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 83 · #8 Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 83 · #9 Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 83

R7 Gulfstream Park · Armd Force Stakes

3:25 PM ET · 1 Mile Turf · $75,000 · 9 runners3:25 PM · 1m Turf · 9 runners

Upcoming $75K · Armd Force Stakes

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Indian Pharoah▼S. Leon · H. MotionLeon · MotionA77 73 76►8-1<1%► Steady77 73 76A▼ Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 83
Card model <1% · Our #9 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 77 73 76
▼ Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 83
Jockey Sonny Leon 29% career 2-for-22 on turf this meet (9%) · Trainer H Graham Motion 35% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Slew Vinbiz 4-1, R2: Ky's Law 10-1, R3: Henry's Buddy 9-5, R8: Velociraptor 4-1 +2 more · Trainer this race: Sushi Party 5-2, R11: Turf Star 2-1
Runs for $75,000 today after a $150,000 race last time. Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 56d back)
RECORD Sonny Leon from post 1 here: 10 wins, 28 top-3 in 78 rides · 11% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/3 DEL 1m D RockyRunB150k 5th/7 -5L 77 13-1 Pressed;vied;weakened
9/9 DEL 6f D MSW Won/5 73 0.8-1 Under pressure; held
7/31 DEL 5½f D MSW 2nd/8 -¾L 76 3.5-1 4-5wd;late bid;hung
2Megaplumb▼J. Morelos · D. HurtakMorelos · HurtakC69@trip 6920-1Fair 20-15%—69@trip 69C▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 83
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Best fig at today's trip 69 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 69
▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 83
Jockey Jose E Morelos 29% career 2-for-28 on turf this meet (7%) · Trainer Daniel Hurtak 21% career 1-for-5 on turf this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Bandari 3-1, R2: Freedom Street 6-1, R3: Lighting Arrow 6-1, R4: Friolento 12-1 +3 more · Trainer R2: Leo's Rocket 5-1, R2: Ky's Law 10-1
WON LAST
Won last out in a 7-horse maiden claiming $25,000 race at GP. Changes barns, from La Cerda Armando De to Daniel Hurtak.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.
TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Brk slw; off heels; kick), and the figure already reflects it.
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 9d ago
RECORD Jose E Morelos from post 2 here: 37 wins, 108 top-3 in 271 rides · 11% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/27 GP 1m T MCL 25kc Won/7 by 1 69 3.1-1 b Brk slw;off heels;kick
3Sushi Party▼C. Gil · H. MotionGil · MotionA78 565-2Fair 8-539%—78 56A▼ Best fig 78 is 5+ under today's par 831
Card model 39% · Fair odds 8-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 78 56
▼ Best fig 78 is 5+ under today's par 83
Jockey Cipriano Gil 27% career 1-for-4 on turf this meet · Trainer H Graham Motion 35% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet
Also today · Jockey R6: Lady Bluesville 20-1, R8: Hottakejake 7-2, R11: Turf Star 2-1 · Trainer this race: Indian Pharoah 8-1, R11: Turf Star 2-1
3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LASTJky 11/82 from post 3
Winner of a 9-horse maiden special weight race at DEL last time. A step up in company: maiden special weight before, stakes nongraded today.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.
WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 3 works in 30d, last 15d back
RECORD Cipriano Gil from post 3 here: 11 wins, 36 top-3 in 82 rides · 9% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/10 DEL 7½f T MSW Won/9 by hd 78 2.3-1 Tracked ins; rallied
8/14 PID 5½f D MSW 2nd/6 -½L 56 2.8-1 Bid;led;outkick;2d bst
4Ready to Rage▼LSJ. Ocasio · C. DavidOcasio · DavidC73 71 64▲+612-1Fair 10-110%▲ Up +6 · career best73 71 64C▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 83LS
Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +6 · career best · Last 3 figs 73 71 64
▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 83LS
Longshot read: 12-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 10% against a line of 6%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Jonathan Ocasio 26% career 3-for-18 on turf this meet (17%) · Trainer Carlos A David 39% career ★ 5-for-19 on turf this meet (26%), #2 of 17
Also today · Jockey R3: Tom B The Goat 9-2, R5: Mywifeknowsitall 20-1, R10: Kazooza 10-1 · Trainer R8: Java Buzz 12-1
CLASS DROP3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST2/3 board here
A 73 is the high figure lately, short of the 83 par. Has moved up each time out, 64 to 71 to 73.
EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.
WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 3 works in 30d, last 7d ago
RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 3 starts here
RECORD Jonathan Ocasio from post 4 here: 10 wins, 43 top-3 in 111 rides · 9% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/5 GP 7½f T MCL 25k Won/8 73 1.3-1 b Surge to lead;drw away
7/25 GP 5f T MCL 35k 3rd/5 -2½L 71 0.9-1 b Press;outfinish for 2d
6/26 GP 5f D MSW 4th/5 -7L 64 5.7-1 b Never threatened
5Palingo▼H. Figueroa · H. SmullenFigueroa · SmullenB72 70 64▲+56-1<1%▲ Up +5 · career best72 70 64B▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 83
Card model <1% · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +5 · career best · Last 3 figs 72 70 64
▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 83
Jockey Heriberto Figueroa 28% career 2-for-12 on turf this meet (17%) · Trainer Heather Smullen 21% career 1-for-11 on turf this meet (9%)
Also today · Jockey R11: Senor Roberto 30-1
60D LAYOFFWON LAST3/3 board here
Switches from dirt to turf. Figures are climbing: 64, 70, 72 over its last three.
EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 8d ago
RECORD On the board in all 3 starts here (1 win)
RECORD Heriberto Figueroa from post 5 here: 3 wins, 9 top-3 in 46 rides · 5% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
8/30 GP 1 1/16 D MSW Won/8 72 2.8-1 b Std'd 7/8; rallied 4wd
8/2 GP 7½f T MSW 3rd/7 -2½L 70 1.6-1 b Bore out 1T;held 3rd
7/4 GP 7½f T MSW 3rd/7 -3L 64 2.0-1 Stalkd;3-w bid;kept on

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/3	DEL	1m D	RockyRunB150k	5th/7 -5L	77	13-1	Pressed;vied;weakened
9/9	DEL	6f D	MSW	Won/5	73	0.8-1	Under pressure; held
7/31	DEL	5½f D	MSW	2nd/8 -¾L	76	3.5-1	4-5wd;late bid;hung

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	GP	1m T	MCL 25kc	Won/7 by 1	69	3.1-1	b	Brk slw;off heels;kick

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/5	GP	7½f T	MCL 25k	Won/8	73	1.3-1	b	Surge to lead;drw away
7/25	GP	5f T	MCL 35k	3rd/5 -2½L	71	0.9-1	b	Press;outfinish for 2d
6/26	GP	5f D	MSW	4th/5 -7L	64	5.7-1	b	Never threatened

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/30	GP	1 1/16 D	MSW	Won/8	72	2.8-1	b	Std'd 7/8; rallied 4wd
8/2	GP	7½f T	MSW	3rd/7 -2½L	70	1.6-1	b	Bore out 1T;held 3rd
7/4	GP	7½f T	MSW	3rd/7 -3L	64	2.0-1		Stalkd;3-w bid;kept on

6HeraclesE. Perez · R. SpatzPerez · SpatzA79 82 68▲+43-1<1%▲ Up +479 82 68A

Card model <1% · Our #7 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +4 · Last 3 figs 79 82 68

Jockey Edgar Perez 32% career 0-for-17 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Ronald B Spatz 27% career 2-for-9 on turf this meet (22%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Scottie Too Hottie 10-1, R5: Neodera 9-2, R8: Readier 12-1, R9: Amazonka 15-1 +1 more

Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 82, with 78 next best. Purse drops from $400,000 to $75,000 against its last start.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 7d back

RECORD Edgar Perez from post 6 here: 18 wins, 98 top-3 in 217 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	KEE	1 1/16 T	Bourbon G2	9th/10	79	37-1	b	2p;bid 2w1/4;led;wknd
9/7	CNL	1 1/16 T	KttensJoyB125k	3rd/7 -3L	82	4.0-1	b	Std'd 3/4;in tight 3/8
7/4	GP	7½f T	MSW	Won/7	68	13-1	b	Rate;ins bid 1/4;drvng

7Caribbean Comet▼J. Torrealba · P. BianconeTorrealba · BianconeC70 65 69▲+320-1Fair 15-16%▲ Up +3 · career best70 65 69C▼ Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 83

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +3 · career best · Last 3 figs 70 65 69

▼ Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 83

Jockey Jg Torrealba 31% career 4-for-21 on turf this meet (19%) · Trainer Patrick L Biancone 28% career 2-for-11 on turf this meet (18%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Mr. Hetty 8-1, R4: Brother Brad 5-1, R5: Laila Bella Girl 6-1, R6: Starship Cougar 4-1 +2 more · Trainer R1: Mr. Hetty 8-1, R11: Redland Rebels 3-1

Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here. Runs for $75,000 after a $45,000 race last out.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 12d back)

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

RECORD Jg Torrealba from post 7 here: 3 wins, 7 top-3 in 16 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	GP	1 1/16 D	Moc50000	2nd/6 -3L	70	3.1-1	b	Closed late outside
9/6	GP	1 1/16 D	Moc50000	4th/7 -4¾L	65	5.2-1	b	5wd; rallied too late
8/10	GP	7½f T	sMdSpWt	5th/6 -5L	69	4.6-1	b	Off slowly; steadied

8Lord Henry▼D. Herrera · J. OrsenoHerrera · OrsenoB71 76 68►7-2Fair 3-125%► Steady71 76 68B▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 832
Card model 25% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 71 76 68
▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 83
Jockey Diego A Herrera 27% career 8-for-56 on turf this meet (14%) · Trainer Joseph F Orseno 28% career 3-for-27 on turf this meet (11%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Fight And Pray 6-1, R2: Golden Ambition 9-2, R3: Rudi 3-1, R4: Wannabeeloved 9-5 +4 more · Trainer R11: Justin Smiles 20-1
3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS2/3 board here
Stretches out from 5 furlongs to a mile. Dropped in well back early last out, 8th of 8 at the first call.
EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.
WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 3 works in 30d and the last 6d back
RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 3 starts here
RECORD Diego A Herrera from post 8 here: 6 wins, 17 top-3 in 34 rides · 20% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/26 GP 5f T HlywdBchB100k 6th/8 -2½L 71 11-1 Passed tiring rivals
8/10 GP 7½f T sMdSpWt Won/6 76 0.7-1 Tracked; bid; clear
7/13 GP 5f T MSW 2nd/6 -5½L 68 4.3-1 b Awkward st; 3wd rally
9Mitzman▼L. Reyes · J. D'AngeloReyes · D'AngeloB77 658-1Fair 5-116%—77 65B▼ Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 833
Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 77 65
▼ Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 83
Jockey Leonel Reyes 30% career ★ 13-for-55 on turf this meet (24%), #3 of 20 · Trainer Jose Francisco D'Angelo 37% career ★ 8-for-37 on turf this meet (22%)
Also today · Jockey R1: No Love Lost 10-1, R2: Deuxieme Chance 9-5, R3: Fifteen Hundred R 5-1, R5: Alpenglow 7-2 +5 more · Trainer R1: New Friend 6-1, R1: No Love Lost 10-1, R5: Alpenglow 7-2, R6: Starship Cougar 4-1 +4 more
WON LAST
Comes in off a victory in a 7-horse maiden special weight race at GP. Worked 4F in :47.40 on Sep 19, 3rd of 43 at the distance.
EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 36d ago
RECORD Leonel Reyes from post 9 here: 16 wins, 44 top-3 in 123 rides · 13% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/2 GP 1 1/16 D MSW Won/7 by 1½ 77 2.2-1 b Stdy adv;held safe
8/30 GP 1 1/16 D MSW 4th/8 -8½L 65 6.6-1 b Broke in; hit gate

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

GULFSTREAM PARK · RACE 7

UPCOMING

Armd Force Stakes

Field

9 runners

Purse

$75,000

Post

3:25 PM ET

Pace

Tactical / Honest

Card model top pick

#3 · 39%

Stakes, for 2-year-olds.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Track record at 1 Mile: 91.41

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #3 Sushi Party (a presser/stalker, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 78 · 56. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #8 Lord Henry at 7-2. Use #9 Mitzman in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #3 SUSHI PARTY (5-2) — our number agrees.
#3 SUSHI PARTY — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 34.4%, they've got 22.1%.
#8 LORD HENRY — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 27.6%, they've got 17.2%.
#9 MITZMAN — our #3 number, a price play — we're at 15.9%, the board 8.6%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#3 SUSHI PARTY — we make it 34.4%, the morning line works out to 22.1%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#8 LORD HENRY — we make it 27.6%, the morning line works out to 17.2%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Longshot the model rates above its line: #9 MITZMAN (8-1) — our fair 15.9% is above the morning line's 8.6%; supported by: 6-way speed duel up front — meltdown sets up the closer

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Likely leader: #6 Heracles; pressure from #4 Ready To Rage, #8 Lord Henry.

Lead

none

Press

6Heracles924Ready To Rage908Lord Henry873Sushi Party835Palingo791Indian Pharoah77

Stalk

2Megaplumb887Caribbean Comet819Mitzman74

none

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Heracles

Ready To Rage

Megaplumb

Lord Henry

Sushi Party

Caribbean Comet

Palingo

Indian Pharoah

Mitzman

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Sushi Party

Palingo

Caribbean Comet

Ready To Rage

Mitzman

Megaplumb

Heracles

Lord Henry

Indian Pharoah

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Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

$1 DAILY DOUBLE / $1 EXACTA / $.50 TRIFECTA / $.10 SUPERFECTA

$1.00 BET 3 (RACES 7-8-9) / $.50 PICK 5 (RACES 7-8-9-10-11)

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