Pick sheet

Race 211:50 AM OClm 100000n1x

7F · Dirt · 9 entered. Our model's top pick, Right in Time, is 29% to win (morning line implies 27%). Pace: fast and contested (9 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #9 Right in Time ML 5-2 Fair 5-2 Model #1 Top last-race fig ▲ Last fig 89 at/above par 86

Jockey J. Alvarado · Trainer R. Mott · KEE 1: 1-0-0 · 28 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	KEE	6f D	MSW	Won/12	89	6.7-1		Ins;inch free;held frm

Case: Last out won in the fMdSpWt at KEE. Last Brisnet figures 89. 1-for-1 at Keeneland. R. Mott / J. Alvarado.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 6f).

Contender #6 She's Toasty ML 9-2 Fair 5-1 Model #2 ▼ Best fig 80 is 5+ under today's par 86

Jockey L. Saez · Trainer E. Kenneally · 34 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	CD	6f D	MSW	Won/9	80	1.4-1		Vie 3p;drw off;rdn out

Case: Last out won in the fMdSpWt at CD. Last Brisnet figures 80. E. Kenneally / L. Saez.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 6f). Never raced at Keeneland.

Use #4 Harmoniously ML 5-1 Fair 5-1 Model #3 ▼ Best fig 80 is 5+ under today's par 86 Last out won in the fMdSpWt at ELP. Last Brisnet figures 80. C. Devaux / J. Ortiz. Knock: Never raced this far (longest 6f). Off 70 days.

Jockey J. Ortiz · Trainer C. Devaux · 70 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/22	ELP	6f D	MSW	Won/11	80	9.1-1		Ins;dueled;game;lasted

Longshot #1 Betty Sue ML 15-1 Fair 15-1 Model #6 ▼ Down -4

Jockey A. Espinoza · Trainer R. Bryner · Dist 1: 0-1-0 · best fig at 7f dirt 73 · 49 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/12	CD	1m D	Pocahnts G3	5th/7 -6½L	74	24-1	b	Off slow;chsd 3p;tired
8/25	PRX	5½f D	MSW	Won/6	83	0.9-1	b	Bid; drew off handily
7/31	ELP	7f D	Moc50000	2nd/8 -1½L	73	9.4-1	b	Slw st;climb;5p;bid3/8

Case: Last out 5th/7 -6½L in the fPocahnts-G3 at CD. Last Brisnet figures 74-83-73. Best at today's distance 73. 0-for-1 at the distance. R. Bryner / A. Espinoza.

Knock: Never raced at Keeneland. 0-for-1 at the distance.

Narrowing the field: A #5, #6, #9 · B #3, #4, #8 · C #1, #2, #7

Angles: #2 Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 86 · #2 Rider upgrade (33% vs 21%) cutting back to a sprint · #4 Best fig 80 is 5+ under today's par 86 · #6 Best fig 80 is 5+ under today's par 86 · #7 Best fig 80 is 5+ under today's par 86 · #9 Last fig 89 at/above par 86

R2 Keeneland · Optional Claiming $100,000

11:50 AM ET · 7 Furlongs Dirt · $165,000 · 8 runners (1 out)11:50 AM · 7f Dirt · 8 runners (1 out)

Official $165K · Optional Claiming $100,000

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Betty SueLSRan 6thA. Espinoza · R. BrynerEspinoza · BrynerC74 83 73▼-4@trip 7315-1Fair 15-17%▼ Down -474 83 73@trip 73CLS

Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -4 · Best fig at today's trip 73 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 83 73

Longshot read: 15-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 7% against a line of 5%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Assael Espinoza 35% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet · Trainer Raymond C Bryner 0-for-3 on dirt this meet

Also today · Trainer R1: You Want Some 12-1

4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Runs for $165,000 today after a $300,000 race last time. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (4 works in 30d, last 7d ago)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/12	CD	1m D	Pocahnts G3	5th/7 -6½L	74	24-1	b	Off slow;chsd 3p;tired
8/25	PRX	5½f D	MSW	Won/6	83	0.9-1	b	Bid; drew off handily
7/31	ELP	7f D	Moc50000	2nd/8 -1½L	73	9.4-1	b	Slw st;climb;5p;bid3/8

2Girls Wear Pearls▼▲Ran 5thU. Rispoli · J. AntonucciRispoli · AntonucciC79 77 73▲+4≡12-1Fair 15-16%▲ Up +4 · career best79 77 73 ≡C▼ Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 86▲ Rider upgrade (33% vs 21%) cutting back to a sprint
Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +4 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 73–79 · Last 3 figs 79 77 73
▼ Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 86▲ Rider upgrade (33% vs 21%) cutting back to a sprint
Jockey Umberto Rispoli 37% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jena M Antonucci 28% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R4: Look Forward 20-1, R5: Sorrento Sky 12-1
★ FASTEST WORK
Last out was 6th, 10 lengths behind the winner, in a 7-horse race at BEL. Has moved up each time out, 73 to 77 to 79.
EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Oct 21; 1 work in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/3 BEL 1m D Frizette G1 6th/7 -10L 79 41-1 b Near rail; gave way
8/22 DMR 5½f D MSW Won/10 77 12-1 b Ins;shook free;safely
7/24 SAR 5½f T MSW 5th/10 -1¼L 73 4.4-1 b Out;3-2path turn;wknd

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	BEL	1m D	Frizette G1	6th/7 -10L	79	41-1	b	Near rail; gave way
8/22	DMR	5½f D	MSW	Won/10	77	12-1	b	Ins;shook free;safely
7/24	SAR	5½f T	MSW	5th/10 -1¼L	73	4.4-1	b	Out;3-2path turn;wknd

3Master QueenRan 7thJ. Torres · C. MunozTorres · MunozB83 60 83▲▲+128-1Fair 10-19%▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best83 60 83B

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · Last 3 figs 83 60 83

Jockey Jaime A Torres 32% career 5-for-33 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Carlos Munoz 28% career 1-for-10 on dirt this meet (10%)

Also today · Jockey R6: Chunk Of Gold 8-1

★ FASTEST WORKJky 0/15 from post 3

Goes 7 furlongs after running 6 furlongs last time. Beaten ½ length for 2nd in a 7-horse allowance race at KEE.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 41d ago

RECORD Jaime A Torres has never won from post 3 here (5 top-3 in 15 rides) · 6% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	KEE	6f D	Alw n2l	2nd/7 -½L	83	4.5-1	b	2wd btw;ins pair;game
8/30	KD	6½f T	Untapable Stk	11th/11 -10L	60	20-1	b	2nd flight 4w;gave way
7/22	CNL	5f D	MSW	Won/8	83	20-1	b	Rated3w;bid4w;driving

4Harmoniously▼Ran 4thJ. Ortiz · C. DevauxOrtiz · DevauxB805-1Fair 5-116%—80B▼ Best fig 80 is 5+ under today's par 863
Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 80
▼ Best fig 80 is 5+ under today's par 86
Jockey Jose L Ortiz 37% career 11-for-72 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Cherie Devaux 2-for-7 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Highwaymen 6-1, R3: Booth 4-1, R4: Explora 4-1, R5: Possiblemente 12-1 +7 more · Trainer R1: Highwaymen 6-1, R1: Shock Value 12-1, R8: Englishman 4-5, R9: Brilliant Berti 30-1 +1 more
60D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST
A step up in company: maiden special weight before, allowance optional claiming today. Comes in off a victory in an 11-horse maiden special weight race at ELP.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 6)
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 19 (4F in :48.00), 4 works in 30d
RECORD Jose L Ortiz from post 4 here: 9 wins, 31 top-3 in 65 rides · 16% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
8/22 ELP 6f D MSW Won/11 80 9.1-1 Ins;dueled;game;lasted
5VirabhadrasanaF. Prat · K. LarosePrat · LaroseA81 85 78►7-2<1%► Steady81 85 78A
Card model <1% · Our #9 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 81 85 78
Jockey Flavien Prat 40% career ★ 12-for-24 on dirt this meet (50%), #1 of 33 · Trainer Kinnon Larose 3-for-14 on dirt this meet (21%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Powerline 8-5, R3: Saudi Crown 5-2, R4: Ways And Means 7-5, R5: Yellow Card 8-1 +7 more
An 85 top number against a 86 par, so it fits the level. A longer trip: 6 furlongs last out, 7 furlongs today.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 4)
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 8 days ago
RECORD Flavien Prat from post 5 here: 10 wins, 21 top-3 in 47 rides · 19% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/2 KEE 6f D Alw n2l 4th/7 -2½L 81 1.0-1 2-3p;5p1/4;willingly
8/29 SAR 6f D MSW Won/9 85 10-1 3p turn;lead1/4;clear
8/1 SAR 6f D MSW 4th/10 -10L 78 11-1 8-9w uppr; belatedly
6She's Toasty▼Ran 2ndL. Saez · E. KenneallySaez · KenneallyA809-2Fair 5-117%—80A▼ Best fig 80 is 5+ under today's par 862
Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 80
▼ Best fig 80 is 5+ under today's par 86
Jockey Luis Saez 36% career 14-for-75 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Eddie Kenneally 35% career 4-for-12 on dirt this meet (33%), #1 of 31 ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Overtime Bonus 12-1, R4: Evanescence 15-1, R5: Shisospicy 15-1, R6: Owen Almighty 10-1 +5 more · Trainer R4: Evanescence 15-1
3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST
Won last out in a 9-horse maiden special weight race at CD. Moves up from maiden special weight to allowance optional claiming.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 6)
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 23 (3F in :35.00), 3 works in 30d
RECORD Luis Saez from post 6 here: 9 wins, 21 top-3 in 58 rides · 14% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/27 CD 6f D MSW Won/9 80 1.4-1 Vie 3p;drw off;rdn out

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/2	KEE	6f D	Alw n2l	4th/7 -2½L	81	1.0-1	2-3p;5p1/4;willingly
8/29	SAR	6f D	MSW	Won/9	85	10-1	3p turn;lead1/4;clear
8/1	SAR	6f D	MSW	4th/10 -10L	78	11-1	8-9w uppr; belatedly

7Fizzypopberrytwist▼Ran 8thO. Mojica Jr. · P. McEnteeMojica Jr. · McEnteeC59 67 38▲+5↕30-1Fair 99-11%▲ Up +559 67 38 ↕C▼ Best fig 80 is 5+ under today's par 86

Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +5 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 38–67 · Last 3 figs 59 67 38

▼ Best fig 80 is 5+ under today's par 86

Jockey Orlando Jr Mojica 34% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Paul McEntee

Also today · Jockey R1: Baytown Thracian 30-1 · Trainer R1: Baytown Thracian 30-1

2nd of 19 at 3F on Oct 17, in :36.20. Raises its level, optional claiming last time and allowance optional claiming now.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 14d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/1	IND	6f D	OC 100k n1x	3rd/6 -11L	59	12-1	b	Inside trip
9/1	IND	5½f D	OC 100k n1x	2nd/6 by hd	67	36-1	b	4path;bid late;caught
7/10	PRM	5½f D	PrGldLssiB100k	5th/5 -15L	38	36-1	b B	Insde tn;no menace

8Don't Tell MomRan 3rdJ. Velazquez · B. LynchVelazquez · LynchB82 796-1Fair 6-114%—82 79B
Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 82 79
Jockey J R Velazquez 34% career 6-for-36 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Brian A Lynch 36% career 1-for-9 on dirt this meet (11%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R4: Praying 30-1, R5: Cy Fair 8-1, R6: Bracket Buster 7-2, R7: Gimme A Nother 10-1 +4 more · Trainer R6: Owen Almighty 10-1
4 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST
J R Velazquez takes over from Yedsit Hazlewood in the saddle. Last start was a win, in an 8-horse maiden special weight race at CD at 1.7-1.
EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.
WORKS Routine prep: 4 works in 30d, last 7d ago
RECORD J R Velazquez from post 8 here: 4 wins, 9 top-3 in 37 rides · 16% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/20 CD 6½f D MSW Won/8 82 1.7-1 Prompt 2p;drove clr
8/22 ELP 6f D MSW 3rd/11 by hd 79 3.5-1 Wait ins;splt3/16;duel
9Right in Time▲Ran 1stJ. Alvarado · R. MottAlvarado · MottA895-2Fair 5-229%—89A▲ Last fig 89 at/above par 861
Card model 29% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 89
▲ Last fig 89 at/above par 86
Jockey Junior Alvarado 34% career 2-for-30 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer Riley Mott 34% career 2-for-9 on dirt this meet (22%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R3: Steeze 8-1, R6: T Kraft 15-1, R10: Immersive 30-1, R12: Sovereignty 5-2 · Trainer R3: Steeze 8-1
WON LAST
Owns the highest recent figure here at 89. Led at the first call last time.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 6)
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 7d back)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/3 KEE 6f D MSW Won/12 89 6.7-1 Ins;inch free;held frm

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/20	CD	6½f D	MSW	Won/8	82	1.7-1		Prompt 2p;drove clr
8/22	ELP	6f D	MSW	3rd/11 by hd	79	3.5-1		Wait ins;splt3/16;duel

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (9 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #9 Right In Time, won.

1st9Right In TimeWin$6.28Place$3.82Show$2.58Our #1

2nd6She's ToastyWin—Place$4.38Show$2.94Our #2

3rd8Don't Tell MomWin—Place—Show$2.92Our #4

4th4HarmoniouslyOur #3

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

KEENELAND · RACE 2

OFFICIAL

Optional Claiming $100,000

Field

9 runners

Purse

$165,000

Post

11:50 AM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#9 · 29%

Claiming $100,000, for fillies, 2-year-olds, that have not won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 7 Furlongs: 80.2

The shape is the story here: 4 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #9 Right In Time (early speed, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 89. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #6 She's Toasty at 9-2. Use #4 Harmoniously in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · WON

Top pick Right In Time won

What worked

✓ Top pick in the money (1st)
✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #1)
✓ Our top 3 finished 1st, 2nd, 4th

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#9 RIGHT IN TIME	1st
#2	#6 SHE'S TOASTY	2nd
#3	#4 HARMONIOUSLY	4th
#4	#8 DON'T TELL MOM	3rd
#5	#3 MASTER QUEEN	7th

Actual finish

1st	#9 Right in Time	our #1
2nd	#6 She's Toasty	our #2
3rd	#8 Don't Tell Mom	our #4
4th	#4 Harmoniously	our #3
5th	#2 Girls Wear Pearls	our #7

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #9 RIGHT IN TIME (5-2) — our number agrees.
#9 RIGHT IN TIME — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 26.9%, they've got 22.3%.
#6 SHE'S TOASTY — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 18.4%, they've got 14.2%.
#4 HARMONIOUSLY — our #3 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 16.7%, they've got 13.0%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#9 RIGHT IN TIME — we make it 26.9%, the morning line works out to 22.3%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#6 SHE'S TOASTY — we make it 18.4%, the morning line works out to 14.2%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#4 HARMONIOUSLY — we make it 16.7%, the morning line works out to 13.0%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Longshot the model rates above its line: #1 BETTY SUE (15-1) — our fair 6.0% is above the morning line's 4.9%; needs the trip to fall right.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #9 Right In Time; pressure from #5 Virabhadrasana, #4 Harmoniously; and works against #4 Harmoniously, #5 Virabhadrasana, #6 She's Toasty.

Lead

9Right In Time975Virabhadrasana924Harmoniously876She's Toasty86

Press

3Master Queen958Don't Tell Mom952Girls Wear Pearls927Fizzypopberrytwist891Betty Sue83

Stalk

none

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Right In Time

Master Queen

Don't Tell Mom

Girls Wear Pearls

Virabhadrasana

Fizzypopberrytwist

Harmoniously

She's Toasty

Betty Sue

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Harmoniously

Don't Tell Mom

Betty Sue

Master Queen

Virabhadrasana

She's Toasty

Fizzypopberrytwist

Right In Time

Girls Wear Pearls

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