Pick sheet

Race 104:58 PM Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1)

1 1/8 Mi · Dirt · 9 entered. Our model's top pick, Nitrogen, is 46% to win (morning line implies 43%). Pace: fast and contested (7 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #2 Nitrogen ML 6-5 Fair 6-5 Model #1 Top last-race fig ► Steady ★ Best at 1⅛m dirt: 110 ▲ Last fig 105 at/above par 92

Jockey J. Ortiz · Trainer M. Casse · KEE 1: 0-1-0 · Dist 5: 2-3-0 · best fig at 1⅛m dirt 110 · 36 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	BEL	1⅛m D	Beldame G2	Won/5	105	0.1-1	b	3-2w; drifted to 1/16p
8/8	SAR	1⅛m D	Whitney G1	2nd/7 by hd	104	5.8-1	b	Stumbled st; drifted
6/5	SAR	1⅛m D	OPhipps G1	Won/6	110	1.0-1	b	2p; drifted; forged cl

Case: Last out won in the fBeldame-G2 at BEL. Last Brisnet figures 105-104-110. Best at today's distance 110. 2-for-5 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Keeneland. M. Casse / J. Ortiz.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #4 Fully Subscribed ML 8-5 Fair 2-1 Model #2 ▼ Down -4 ▲ Last fig 97 at/above par 92

Jockey F. Prat · Trainer C. Brown · KEE 1: 1-0-0 · Dist 7: 5-2-0 · best fig at 1⅛m dirt 106 · 27 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/4	KEE	1⅛m D	Spinster G1	Won/3	97	0.5-1	Stalk 3p;shft;rddn out
8/29	SAR	1⅛m D	PrsnlEns G1	Won/6	102	0.9-1	Float 5w uppr; went cl
7/24	SAR	1⅛m D	Shuvee G2	Won/6 by 3	106	1.7-1	Ins-2p;swung out1/4;7p

Case: Last out won in the fSpinster-G1 at KEE. Last Brisnet figures 97-102-106. Best at today's distance 106. 5-for-7 at the distance. 1-for-1 at Keeneland. C. Brown / F. Prat.

Knock: Our model rates her below her morning line.

Use #7 Super Corredora ML 15-1 Fair 15-1 Model #3 ▲▲ Big jump +25 · career best ↕ Up and down 41–98 ▲ Last fig 98 at/above par 92 Last out won in the fZenyatta-G2 at SA. Last Brisnet figures 98-41-82. J. Sadler / J. Rosario. Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1 1/16). Never raced at Keeneland.

Jockey J. Rosario · Trainer J. Sadler · 34 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
9/27	SA	1 1/16 D	Zenyatta G2	Won/7	98	7.8-1	Antsy;pace;ins;clr upr
3/8	SA	1 1/16 D	SntYsabl G3	6th/7 -10L	41	1.7-1	Threw head st;climbed
2/8	SA	1m D	LsVrgnes Stk	4th/4 -3L	82	1.7-1	Duel2w;vied btwn;wknd

Longshot #3 Regaled ML 20-1 Fair 20-1 Model #4 ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best ▲ Last fig 103 at/above par 92

Jockey J. Ramos · Trainer D. Beckman · KEE 1: 0-0-0 · Dist 9: 2-1-2 · best fig at 1⅛m dirt 103 · 28 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	DEL	1⅛m D	DelH G3	Won/8	103	3.7-1	b	Widest;full of run
6/27	CD	1⅛m D	FlrDLis G2	2nd/4 -5L	96	4.8-1	b	Ins;4-5p upr;rally;mss
6/5	SAR	1⅛m D	OPhipps G1	4th/6 -13L	92	23-1	b	7w upper; weakened

Case: Last out won in the fDelH-G3 at DEL. Last Brisnet figures 103-96-92. Best at today's distance 103. 2-for-9 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Keeneland. D. Beckman / J. Ramos.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Narrowing the field: A #2, #4, #8 · B #3, #5, #7 · C #1, #6, #9

Angles: #2 Last fig 105 at/above par 92 · #3 Last fig 103 at/above par 92 · #4 Last fig 97 at/above par 92 · #6 Last fig 94 at/above par 92 · #7 Last fig 98 at/above par 92 · #8 Last fig 102 at/above par 92 · #9 Last fig 96 at/above par 92

R10 Keeneland · B.C. Distaf Stakes (G1)

4:58 PM ET · 1 1/8 Miles Dirt · $2,000,000 · 9 runners4:58 PM · 1 1/8m Dirt · 9 runners

Upcoming $2000K · B.C. Distaf Stakes (G1)

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1ImmersiveJ. Alvarado · B. CoxAlvarado · CoxC87 92 96▼▼-9@trip 9630-1Fair 50-12%▼▼ Big drop -987 92 96@trip 96C

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · Best fig at today's trip 96 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 87 92 96

Jockey Junior Alvarado 34% career · Trainer Brad H Cox 42% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Right In Time 5-2, R3: Steeze 8-1, R6: T Kraft 15-1, R12: Sovereignty 5-2 · Trainer R3: Saudi Crown 5-2, R6: Further Ado 2-1, R7: Bless The Broken 20-1, R7: Stellify 12-1

Runs for $2,000,000 after a $650,000 race last out. Figure of 99 on the record sits above the 92 par.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 8)

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 7 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/4	KEE	1⅛m D	Spinster G1	3rd/3 -5L	87	5.0-1	Ins;headed 5/16;faded
9/12	CD	1 1/16 D	LcstGrv G2	3rd/4 -5L	92	3.6-1	Prss winner 3p;gave wy
6/27	CD	1⅛m D	FlrDLis G2	Won/4 by hd	96	1.7-1	Dueled ins foe; lasted

2Nitrogen▲★J. Ortiz · M. CasseOrtiz · CasseA105 104 110►@trip 1106-5Fair 6-546%► Steady105 104 110@trip 110A▲ Last fig 105 at/above par 92★ Best at the trip 1101

Card model 46% · Fair odds 6-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 110 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 105 104 110

▲ Last fig 105 at/above par 92★ Best at the trip 110

Jockey Jose L Ortiz 37% career · Trainer Mark Casse 36% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Highwaymen 6-1, R2: Harmoniously 5-1, R3: Booth 4-1, R4: Explora 4-1 +7 more · Trainer R1: Overtime Bonus 12-1, R5: Time To Dazzle 20-1, R7: Classic Q 20-1, R9: Facteur Cheval 30-1 +1 more

WON LAST

Last start was a win, in a 5-horse race at BEL at 0.1-1. Tops the field on speed figures, an 110 against 106 for the next best.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 8)

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 10 days ago

RECORD Jose L Ortiz from post 2 here: 12 wins, 23 top-3 in 57 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	BEL	1⅛m D	Beldame G2	Won/5	105	0.1-1	b	3-2w; drifted to 1/16p
8/8	SAR	1⅛m D	Whitney G1	2nd/7 by hd	104	5.8-1	b	Stumbled st; drifted
6/5	SAR	1⅛m D	OPhipps G1	Won/6	110	1.0-1	b	2p; drifted; forged cl

3Regaled▲LSJ. Ramos · D. BeckmanRamos · BeckmanB103 96 92▲▲+10@trip 10320-1Fair 20-14%▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best103 96 92@trip 103B▲ Last fig 103 at/above par 92LS

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 103 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 103 96 92

▲ Last fig 103 at/above par 92LS

Longshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 4% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Joseph D Ramos 34% career · Trainer D Whitworth Beckman 29% career

WON LAST

Has moved up each time out, 92 to 96 to 103. Winner of an 8-horse race at DEL last time.

PACE HELPS Hot early fractions are likely, and that sets up a late run.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 7d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	DEL	1⅛m D	DelH G3	Won/8	103	3.7-1	b	Widest;full of run
6/27	CD	1⅛m D	FlrDLis G2	2nd/4 -5L	96	4.8-1	b	Ins;4-5p upr;rally;mss
6/5	SAR	1⅛m D	OPhipps G1	4th/6 -13L	92	23-1	b	7w upper; weakened

4Fully Subscribed▲F. Prat · C. BrownPrat · BrownA97 102 106▼-4@trip 1068-5Fair 2-134%▼ Down -497 102 106@trip 106A▲ Last fig 97 at/above par 922

Card model 34% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -4 · Best fig at today's trip 106 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 97 102 106

▲ Last fig 97 at/above par 92

Jockey Flavien Prat 40% career · Trainer Chad C Brown 37% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Powerline 8-5, R2: Virabhadrasana 7-2, R3: Saudi Crown 5-2, R4: Ways And Means 7-5 +7 more · Trainer R4: Ways And Means 7-5, R7: Kathynmarissa 5-1, R9: Zulu Kingdom 15-1

★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

5 wins from 7 starts at this distance. Purse goes from $650,000 to $2,000,000, a step up.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 24 (5F in 1:00.40), 2 works in 30d

RECORD Flavien Prat from post 4 here: 5 wins, 19 top-3 in 43 rides · 19% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/4	KEE	1⅛m D	Spinster G1	Won/3	97	0.5-1	Stalk 3p;shft;rddn out
8/29	SAR	1⅛m D	PrsnlEns G1	Won/6	102	0.9-1	Float 5w uppr; went cl
7/24	SAR	1⅛m D	Shuvee G2	Won/6 by 3	106	1.7-1	Ins-2p;swung out1/4;7p

5Scottish LassieL. Saez · J. AbreuSaez · AbreuB91 105 106▼▼-11@trip 10515-1<1%▼▼ Big drop -1191 105 106@trip 105B

Card model <1% · Our #9 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -11 · Best fig at today's trip 105 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 91 105 106

Jockey Luis Saez 36% career · Trainer Jorge R Abreu 32% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Overtime Bonus 12-1, R2: She's Toasty 9-2, R4: Evanescence 15-1, R5: Shisospicy 15-1 +5 more

60D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Jockey switch: Jose L Ortiz last out, Luis Saez today. Runs for $2,000,000 after a $500,000 race last out.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

WORKS SHARP 5f in :58.60 on Oct 2 was the best time at that distance that morning; 4 works in 30d

RECORD Luis Saez from post 5 here: 7 wins, 36 top-3 in 75 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/29	SAR	1⅛m D	PrsnlEns G1	2nd/6 -1½L	91	1.6-1		Led 4w uppr; kept on
7/24	SAR	1⅛m D	Shuvee G2	2nd/6	105	1.4-1		2-3p;out;clr3/16-1/16
6/7	SAR	7f D	OC 80k b	Won/5	106	0.8-1	L	Ins-2p;3w uppr;driving

6Measure▲M. Franco · M. CasseFranco · CasseC94 95 96►≡@trip 9720-1Fair 20-14%► Steady94 95 96 ≡@trip 97C▲ Last fig 94 at/above par 92

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 94–97 · Best fig at today's trip 97 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 94 95 96

▲ Last fig 94 at/above par 92

Jockey Manuel Franco 33% career · Trainer Mark Casse 36% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Shock Value 12-1, R4: Simply Joking 30-1, R5: Roja 30-1, R6: Moonlight 15-1 +4 more · Trainer R1: Overtime Bonus 12-1, R5: Time To Dazzle 20-1, R7: Classic Q 20-1, R9: Facteur Cheval 30-1 +1 more

★ FASTEST WORK

A 97 in its last five clears the 92 par for this level. Runs for $2,000,000 after a $1,000,000 race last out.

PACE HELPS The front end should be a fight, and this one gets to wait on it.

WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.00 on Oct 21 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
9/19	PRX	1 1/16 D	Cotilln G1	3rd/9 -5½L	94	6.8-1	In tight 3/8; late bid
8/22	SAR	1¼m D	Alabama G1	2nd/6 -1½L	95	11-1	Last away;ins-2p;rally
7/25	SAR	1⅛m D	CCAOaks G1	3rd/7 -4L	96	26-1	4w upper; kept on

7Super Corredora▲J. Rosario · J. SadlerRosario · SadlerB98 41 82▲▲+25↕15-1Fair 15-17%▲▲ Big jump +25 · career best98 41 82 ↕B▲ Last fig 98 at/above par 923

Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +25 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 41–98 · Last 3 figs 98 41 82

▲ Last fig 98 at/above par 92

Jockey Joel Rosario 33% career · Trainer John W Sadler 34% career

Also today · Jockey R1: You Want Some 12-1, R3: Durante 20-1, R6: Full Serrano 10-1 · Trainer R6: Full Serrano 10-1

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST

Won last out in a 7-horse race at SA. Led at the first call last time.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 6)

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (3 works in 30d, last 8d back)

RECORD Joel Rosario from post 7 here: 4 wins, 10 top-3 in 28 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
9/27	SA	1 1/16 D	Zenyatta G2	Won/7	98	7.8-1	Antsy;pace;ins;clr upr
3/8	SA	1 1/16 D	SntYsabl G3	6th/7 -10L	41	1.7-1	Threw head st;climbed
2/8	SA	1m D	LsVrgnes Stk	4th/4 -3L	82	1.7-1	Duel2w;vied btwn;wknd

8Splendora▲T. Gaffalione · B. BaffertGaffalione · BaffertA102 98 102▲+7@trip 939-2<1%▲ Up +7102 98 102@trip 93A▲ Last fig 102 at/above par 92

Card model <1% · Our #8 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +7 · Best fig at today's trip 93 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 102 98 102

▲ Last fig 102 at/above par 92

Jockey Tyler Gaffalione 36% career · Trainer Bob Baffert 43% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Supreme Commander 5-1, R3: Tennessee Lamb 12-1, R4: R Disaster 8-1, R6: Iron Man Cal 12-1 +2 more · Trainer R4: Explora 4-1, R4: Nooni 30-1

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST

Off 49 days since the last start. The Sep 6 work, 4F in :46.80, was the best time at that distance that morning.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

SHARP LAST OUT Last time the chart read: In hand ins; ridden out.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Sep 6; 3 works in 30d

RECORD Tyler Gaffalione from post 8 here: 10 wins, 25 top-3 in 49 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/12	CD	1 1/16 D	LcstGrv G2	Won/4	102	0.2-1	b	In hand ins;ridden out
7/18	MTH	1 1/16 D	MPtchr G2	Won/7	98	0.3-1	b	Pace ins; ridden out
5/30	CD	1 1/16 D	Shawnee G2	Won/7	102	1.4-1	b	Led past 3/8;clr;held

9Eunomia▲M. Husbands · S. Joseph Jr.Husbands · Joseph Jr.C96 81 99▲+530-1Fair 50-12%▲ Up +596 81 99C▲ Last fig 96 at/above par 92

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +5 · Last 3 figs 96 81 99

▲ Last fig 96 at/above par 92

Jockey Micah J Husbands 35% career · Trainer Saffie A Jr Joseph

Also today · Jockey R5: In Our Time 20-1 · Trainer R4: R Disaster 8-1, R4: Kerry's Kiss 20-1, R5: In Our Time 20-1, R6: Forged Steel 15-1

60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST2/3 board here

91 days since the last start, the longest layoff in here, so it needs the works to say it's ready. Comes in off a victory in a 9-horse race at DMR.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 22 (4F in :47.00), 3 works in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
8/1	DMR	1 1/16 D	CLHrsch G1	Won/9	96	12-1	3deep;duel2w;led;held
5/9	BAQ	1m D	Ruffian G2	6th/7 -7½L	81	2.1-1	Stumbled brk;2w1/4;wkn
4/17	KEE	1 1/16 D	Dbldgdre G2	2nd/8	99	1.9-1	Prss 2w5/8;dueld;bestd

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (7 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

KEENELAND · RACE 10

UPCOMING

B.C. Distaf Stakes (G1)

Field

9 runners

Purse

$2,000,000

Post

4:58 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#2 · 46%

Stakes, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Track record at 1 1/8 Miles: 107.75

The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #2 Nitrogen (early speed, M/L 6-5). Recent figures: 105 · 104 · 110. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #4 Fully Subscribed at 8-5. Use #7 Super Corredora in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #2 NITROGEN (6-5) — our number agrees.
#2 NITROGEN — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (43.3% to their 34.8%).
#4 FULLY SUBSCRIBED — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 35.1%, they've got 29.5%.
#7 SUPER CORREDORA — our #3 number, a price play — we're at 6.5%, the board 4.8%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#4 FULLY SUBSCRIBED — we make it 35.1%, the morning line works out to 29.5%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Longshot the model rates above its line: #7 SUPER CORREDORA (15-1) — our fair 6.5% is above the morning line's 4.8%; needs the trip to fall right.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #2 Nitrogen; pressure from #7 Super Corredora, #1 Immersive; the shape helps #3 Regaled, #6 Measure; and works against #1 Immersive, #2 Nitrogen, #7 Super Corredora.

Lead

2Nitrogen947Super Corredora901Immersive85

Press

8Splendora909Eunomia885Scottish Lassie844Fully Subscribed82

Stalk

none

3Regaled746Measure74

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Nitrogen

Super Corredora

Splendora

Eunomia

Immersive

Scottish Lassie

Fully Subscribed

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Regaled

Measure

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Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

EXACTA / TRIFECTA / SUPERFECTA

$3 LATE PICK 3 (RACES 10-11-12)

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