Pick sheet

Race 111:15 AM Md Sp Wt

7F · Dirt · 12 entered. Our model's top pick, Powerline, is 42% to win (morning line implies 32%). Pace: honest. Speed from #6, #11.

Top pick #5 Powerline ML 8-5 Fair 7-5 Model #1 ▼ Best fig 81 is 5+ under today's par 87

Jockey F. Prat · Trainer S. Asmussen · 70 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/22	SAR	6½f D	MSW	4th/9 -6½L	69	0.6-1		Very slw st;rank;chckd
7/18	SAR	6f D	MSW	2nd/6 -4½L	81	1.6-1		Rank kickback; bmp 1/4

Case: Last out 4th/9 -6½L in the MdSpWt at SAR. Last Brisnet figures 69-81. S. Asmussen / F. Prat.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 6½f). Off 70 days.

Contender #2 Highwaymen ML 6-1 Fair 9-2 Model #2

Jockey J. Ortiz · Trainer C. Devaux · Debut

First start. By Curlin out of Always on My Mind (Congrats)

Trainer C. Devaux: 1st-time starters: 15% wins, 28% in the money (243 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 15% wins, 29% in the money (231 starts) · Maiden special weights: 18% wins, 39% in the money (588 starts)

Jockey J. Ortiz in sprints: 83 wins from 413 (20%)

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/25	KEE	4f	:48.40	breezing	9/29
10/19	KEE	4f	:48.20	breezing	2/12
10/13	KEE	5f	1:00.40	breezing	3/11	from gate
10/5	KEE	4f	:47.80	breezing	1/16	● bullet
9/27	ELP	4f	:47.80	breezing	3/68

Case: C. Devaux / J. Ortiz.

Knock: Never raced at Keeneland. No recent Brisnet figures (raced overseas).

Use #8 Supreme Commander ML 5-1 Fair 8-1 Model #3 B. Walsh / T. Gaffalione. Knock: Never raced at Keeneland. No recent Brisnet figures (raced overseas).

Jockey T. Gaffalione · Trainer B. Walsh · Debut

First start. By Oscar Performance out of Spartina (Ghostzapper)

Trainer B. Walsh: 1st-time starters: 15% wins, 38% in the money (433 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 13% wins, 37% in the money (372 starts) · Maiden special weights: 16% wins, 45% in the money (1051 starts)

Jockey T. Gaffalione in sprints: 70 wins from 404 (17%)

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/23	KEE	4f	:48.60	breezing	23/85
10/16	KEE	4f	:48.80	breezing	21/68
10/2	KEE	4f	:48.60	breezing	37/85
9/25	CD	4f	:47.00	breezing	1/69	● bullet from gate
9/18	CD	5f	1:01.20	breezing	13/25

Narrowing the field: A #4, #5, #11 · B #6, #9, #12 · C #3, #10 · ? #1, #2, #7, #8 (no figures yet, never thrown out)

Angles: #3 Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 87 · #4 Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 87 · #5 Best fig 81 is 5+ under today's par 87 · #6 Best fig 78 is 5+ under today's par 87 · #9 Best fig 82 is 5+ under today's par 87 · #10 Best fig 24 is 5+ under today's par 87 · #11 Best fig 80 is 5+ under today's par 87 · #12 Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 87

R1 Keeneland · Maiden Special Weight

11:15 AM ET · 7 Furlongs Dirt · $150,000 · 10 runners (2 out)11:15 AM · 7f Dirt · 10 runners (2 out)

Official $150K · Maiden Special Weight

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1CandorB. Hernandez Jr. · D. StewartHernandez Jr. · Stewart?20-1<1%—Debut?
Card model <1% · Our #11 · Tier ?
Jockey B J Jr Hernandez 38% career 2-for-36 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Dallas Stewart 29% career 0-for-10 on dirt this meet (0%)
Also today · Jockey R3: Will Take It 12-1, R9: Brilliant Berti 30-1, R11: Burnham Square 8-1 · Trainer R3: Will Take It 12-1
First career start, by Authentic out of My Due Process. Debut for a trainer who is 11% with first-timers, over 100 starts.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 3 works in 30d and the last 8 days ago
Last three races
First start. By Authentic out of My Due Process (Henny Hughes)
Trainer D. Stewart: 1st-time starters: 11% wins, 29% in the money (100 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 9% wins, 27% in the money (91 starts) · Maiden special weights: 12% wins, 32% in the money (331 starts)
Jockey B. Hernandez Jr. in sprints: 27 wins from 197 (14%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/23 CD 4f :47.80 breezing 6/64
10/14 CD 5f 1:01.60 breezing 13/19
10/7 CD 4f :49.60 breezing 33/51 from gate
9/26 CD 4f :48.20 breezing 28/155
9/19 CD 5f 1:00.20 breezing 6/27
2HighwaymenRan 2ndJ. Ortiz · C. DevauxOrtiz · Devaux?6-1Fair 9-218%—Debut?2
Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #2 · Tier ?
Jockey Jose L Ortiz 37% career 11-for-72 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Cherie Devaux 2-for-7 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R2: Harmoniously 5-1, R3: Booth 4-1, R4: Explora 4-1, R5: Possiblemente 12-1 +7 more · Trainer this race: Shock Value 12-1, R2: Harmoniously 5-1, R8: Englishman 4-5, R9: Brilliant Berti 30-1 +1 more
In the morning works, it had the morning's best 4F work on Oct 5, in :47.80. First-time starter from a barn that wins 15% of the time with them (243 tried).
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.80 on Oct 5 was the best time at that distance that morning; 4 works in 30d
RECORD Jose L Ortiz from post 2 here: 12 wins, 23 top-3 in 57 rides · 16% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Curlin out of Always on My Mind (Congrats)
Trainer C. Devaux: 1st-time starters: 15% wins, 28% in the money (243 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 15% wins, 29% in the money (231 starts) · Maiden special weights: 18% wins, 39% in the money (588 starts)
Jockey J. Ortiz in sprints: 83 wins from 413 (20%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/25 KEE 4f :48.40 breezing 9/29
10/19 KEE 4f :48.20 breezing 2/12
10/13 KEE 5f 1:00.40 breezing 3/11 from gate
10/5 KEE 4f :47.80 breezing 1/16 ● bullet
9/27 ELP 4f :47.80 breezing 3/68
3Tacamo▼Ran 9thA. Ulloa · K. HernandezUlloa · HernandezC62 5030-1Fair 99-1<1%—62 50C▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 87
Card model <1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 62 50
▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 87
Jockey Andres P Ulloa 24% career · Trainer Kenia Hernandez 31% career
A step up in company: maiden claiming $40,000 before, maiden special weight today. Finished 2nd in a 6-horse maiden claiming $40,000 race at IND, beaten 2½ lengths.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 18d back)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/22 IND 5½f D MCL 40k 2nd/6 -2½L 62 9.9-1 b Bmp;sted5/16;rally4p
7/14 IND 7½f T MSW 5th/7 -10L 50 51-1 b Lunged;bmp st;bid3p1/4
4Knicks Diamonds▼Ran 3rdF. Arrieta · M. SimsArrieta · SimsA7910-1Fair 20-15%—79A▼ Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 87
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 79
▼ Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 87
Jockey Francisco Arrieta 32% career 2-for-43 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Matthew P Sims 27% career 0-for-9 on dirt this meet (0%)
Also today · Jockey R3: Sir Greylind 8-1, R4: Majestic Oops 15-1
Best recent figure is 79, well under the 87 par for this level. 3rd last time, 2¼ lengths back, in a field of 10.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 12 (4F in :46.80), 2 works in 30d
RECORD Francisco Arrieta from post 4 here: 3 wins, 6 top-3 in 18 rides · 6% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/2 KEE 6f D MSW 3rd/10 -2¼L 79 15-1 4p;5p1/8;rallied
5Powerline▼Ran 1stF. Prat · S. AsmussenPrat · AsmussenA69 818-5Fair 7-542%—69 81A▼ Best fig 81 is 5+ under today's par 871
Card model 42% · Fair odds 7-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 69 81
▼ Best fig 81 is 5+ under today's par 87
Jockey Flavien Prat 40% career ★ 12-for-24 on dirt this meet (50%), #1 of 33 · Trainer Steven M Asmussen 36% career ★ 10-for-49 on dirt this meet (20%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R2: Virabhadrasana 7-2, R3: Saudi Crown 5-2, R4: Ways And Means 7-5, R5: Yellow Card 8-1 +7 more · Trainer R3: Booth 4-1, R3: Extra Anejo 8-1, R8: Stradale 20-1, R12: Magnitude 6-1
60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK
Moves up from maiden special weight to maiden special weight. A 70-day gap since its last race.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Oct 4; 2 works in 30d
RECORD Flavien Prat from post 5 here: 10 wins, 21 top-3 in 47 rides · 19% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
8/22 SAR 6½f D MSW 4th/9 -6½L 69 0.6-1 Very slw st;rank;chckd
7/18 SAR 6f D MSW 2nd/6 -4½L 81 1.6-1 Rank kickback; bmp 1/4
6You Want Some▼Ran 10thJ. Rosario · R. BrynerRosario · BrynerB78 62 71▲▲+1212-1Fair 20-15%▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best78 62 71B▼ Best fig 78 is 5+ under today's par 87
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · Last 3 figs 78 62 71
▼ Best fig 78 is 5+ under today's par 87
Jockey Joel Rosario 33% career 1-for-10 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Raymond C Bryner 0-for-3 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R3: Durante 20-1, R6: Full Serrano 10-1, R10: Super Corredora 15-1 · Trainer R2: Betty Sue 15-1
4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK
Changes barns, from Peter Miller to Raymond C Bryner. Goes 7 furlongs after running 5½ furlongs last time.
PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 8)
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Oct 8; 4 works in 30d
RECORD Joel Rosario from post 6 here: 2 wins, 5 top-3 in 19 rides · 10% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/7 DMR 5½f D MSW 5th/10 -3L 78 29-1 b Press outside;weakened
8/27 DMR 5f T MSW 7th/9 -1L 62 4.8-1 b Brk in/bpd;btwn;2w;wkn
8/8 DMR 6f D BestPal G3 5th/5 -6L 71 21-1 b Vied btwn;duel2w;tired
7Bourbon NeatRan 4thA. Concepcion · W. WaldenConcepcion · Walden?8-1Fair 12-17%—Debut?
Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #4 · Tier ?
Jockey Axel Concepcion 33% career 3-for-39 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer William Walden 34% career 2-for-7 on dirt this meet
Also today · Trainer R9: Rhetorical 8-1, R11: Minaret Station 15-1
No race yet; there is gate work on its record, the latest on Oct 25. Makes his first start with no form to go on, only the Flightline and Hennesey Smash breeding.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 4 works in 30d, last 6d ago
RECORD Axel Concepcion from post 7 here: 2 wins, 3 top-3 in 16 rides · 8% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Flightline out of Hennesey Smash (Roll Hennessy Roll)
Trainer W. Walden: 1st-time starters: 21% wins, 54% in the money (113 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 23% wins, 56% in the money (93 starts) · Maiden special weights: 24% wins, 58% in the money (211 starts)
Jockey A. Concepcion in sprints: 42 wins from 305 (14%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/25 CD 4f :48.00 breezing 9/80 from gate
10/17 TP 4f :49.60 breezing 42/66
10/9 TP 4f :48.80 breezing 31/69
10/2 TP 4f :48.80 breezing 8/39
9/26 TP 4f :49.20 breezing 56/97
8Supreme CommanderRan 7thT. Gaffalione · B. WalshGaffalione · Walsh?5-1Fair 8-111%—Debut?3
Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #3 · Tier ?
Jockey Tyler Gaffalione 36% career ★ 17-for-65 on dirt this meet (26%), #3 of 33 · Trainer Brendan P Walsh 36% career ★ 9-for-33 on dirt this meet (27%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R3: Tennessee Lamb 12-1, R4: R Disaster 8-1, R6: Iron Man Cal 12-1, R7: Lush Lips 12-1 +2 more · Trainer R7: Expensive Queen 15-1, R7: Lush Lips 12-1
Unraced; this barn has 433 first-time starters on record and wins 15% of them. It was the fastest 4F work of its morning on Sep 25 (:47.00).
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Sep 25; 3 works in 30d
RECORD Tyler Gaffalione from post 8 here: 10 wins, 25 top-3 in 49 rides · 16% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Oscar Performance out of Spartina (Ghostzapper)
Trainer B. Walsh: 1st-time starters: 15% wins, 38% in the money (433 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 13% wins, 37% in the money (372 starts) · Maiden special weights: 16% wins, 45% in the money (1051 starts)
Jockey T. Gaffalione in sprints: 70 wins from 404 (17%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/23 KEE 4f :48.60 breezing 23/85
10/16 KEE 4f :48.80 breezing 21/68
10/2 KEE 4f :48.60 breezing 37/85
9/25 CD 4f :47.00 breezing 1/69 ● bullet from gate
9/18 CD 5f 1:01.20 breezing 13/25
9Mahogany Dream▼Ran 8thB. Curtis · N. GoodwinCurtis · GoodwinB82 81 73▲▲+920-1Fair 50-12%▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best82 81 73B▼ Best fig 82 is 5+ under today's par 87
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #9 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best · Last 3 figs 82 81 73
▼ Best fig 82 is 5+ under today's par 87
Jockey Ben Curtis 36% career 1-for-9 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Nik G Goodwin 29% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet
★ FASTEST WORK
Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt. Figures are climbing: 73, 81, 82 over its last three.
EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.
WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.60 on Sep 24 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/9 KEE 1m T MSW 3rd/12 -4¼L 82 13-1 4p;6p1/4;rallied
9/7 KD 6½f T MSW 3rd/12 -4¼L 81 17-1 Angl out;finished well
8/23 ELP 1m D MSW 6th/12 -3¾L 73 6.2-1 Prss 2w;vied btw;faded
10Baytown Thracian▼O. Mojica Jr. · P. McEnteeMojica Jr. · McEnteeC2430-1<1%—24C▼ Best fig 24 is 5+ under today's par 87
Card model <1% · Our #12 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 24
▼ Best fig 24 is 5+ under today's par 87
Jockey Orlando Jr Mojica 34% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Paul McEntee
Also today · Jockey R2: Fizzypopberrytwist 30-1 · Trainer R2: Fizzypopberrytwist 30-1
Stretches out from 5½ furlongs to 7 furlongs. Last out was 7th, 23 lengths behind the winner, in a 7-horse race at WO.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 21 days ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/13 WO 5½f D Moc40000 7th/7 -23L 24 27-1 b Bmpd; sqz'd brk
11Overtime Bonus▼Ran 6thL. Saez · M. CasseSaez · CasseA80 71 72▲▲+812-1Fair 20-14%▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best80 71 72A▼ Best fig 80 is 5+ under today's par 87
Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · Last 3 figs 80 71 72
▼ Best fig 80 is 5+ under today's par 87
Jockey Luis Saez 36% career 14-for-75 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Mark Casse 36% career 1-for-21 on dirt this meet (5%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R2: She's Toasty 9-2, R4: Evanescence 15-1, R5: Shisospicy 15-1, R6: Owen Almighty 10-1 +5 more · Trainer R5: Time To Dazzle 20-1, R7: Classic Q 20-1, R9: Facteur Cheval 30-1, R10: Nitrogen 6-5 +1 more
★ FASTEST WORK
Led at the first call last time. Worked 4F in :48.80 on Sep 23, 2nd of 19 at the distance.
PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 4)
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 9 days ago
RECORD Luis Saez from post 11 here: 3 wins, 11 top-3 in 38 rides · 14% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/2 KEE 6f D MSW 2nd/10 by hd 80 17-1 Ins pair turn;game plc
9/5 KD 7f T MSW 3rd/8 by hd 71 1.9-1 Press 2-3w;outfinished
7/26 ELP 6f D MSW 5th/9 -6L 72 3.3-1 Bump st;track 4p;yield
12Shock Value▼Ran 5thM. Franco · C. DevauxFranco · DevauxB7212-1Fair 20-14%—72B▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 87
Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 72
▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 87
Jockey Manuel Franco 33% career 2-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Cherie Devaux 2-for-7 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R4: Simply Joking 30-1, R5: Roja 30-1, R6: Moonlight 15-1, R7: Thought Process 15-1 +4 more · Trainer this race: Highwaymen 6-1, R2: Harmoniously 5-1, R8: Englishman 4-5, R9: Brilliant Berti 30-1 +1 more
3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS
Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 72 against a 87 par. Off 51 days since the last start.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Green stretch; evenly), and the figure already reflects it.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 3 works in 30d, last one 11d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/10 CD 6f D MSW 6th/10 -8L 72 21-1 Green stretch; evenly

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/23	CD	4f	:47.80	breezing	6/64
10/14	CD	5f	1:01.60	breezing	13/19
10/7	CD	4f	:49.60	breezing	33/51	from gate
9/26	CD	4f	:48.20	breezing	28/155
9/19	CD	5f	1:00.20	breezing	6/27

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/22	IND	5½f D	MCL 40k	2nd/6 -2½L	62	9.9-1	b	Bmp;sted5/16;rally4p
7/14	IND	7½f T	MSW	5th/7 -10L	50	51-1	b	Lunged;bmp st;bid3p1/4

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	KEE	6f D	MSW	3rd/10 -2¼L	79	15-1		4p;5p1/8;rallied

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/7	DMR	5½f D	MSW	5th/10 -3L	78	29-1	b	Press outside;weakened
8/27	DMR	5f T	MSW	7th/9 -1L	62	4.8-1	b	Brk in/bpd;btwn;2w;wkn
8/8	DMR	6f D	BestPal G3	5th/5 -6L	71	21-1	b	Vied btwn;duel2w;tired

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/25	CD	4f	:48.00	breezing	9/80	from gate
10/17	TP	4f	:49.60	breezing	42/66
10/9	TP	4f	:48.80	breezing	31/69
10/2	TP	4f	:48.80	breezing	8/39
9/26	TP	4f	:49.20	breezing	56/97

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/9	KEE	1m T	MSW	3rd/12 -4¼L	82	13-1	4p;6p1/4;rallied
9/7	KD	6½f T	MSW	3rd/12 -4¼L	81	17-1	Angl out;finished well
8/23	ELP	1m D	MSW	6th/12 -3¾L	73	6.2-1	Prss 2w;vied btw;faded

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/13	WO	5½f D	Moc40000	7th/7 -23L	24	27-1	b	Bmpd; sqz'd brk

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/2	KEE	6f D	MSW	2nd/10 by hd	80	17-1	Ins pair turn;game plc
9/5	KD	7f T	MSW	3rd/8 by hd	71	1.9-1	Press 2-3w;outfinished
7/26	ELP	6f D	MSW	5th/9 -6L	72	3.3-1	Bump st;track 4p;yield

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/10	CD	6f D	MSW	6th/10 -8L	72	21-1		Green stretch; evenly

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: honest. Speed from #6, #11.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #5 Powerline, won.

1st5PowerlineWin$4.88Place$3.52Show$2.64Our #1

2nd2HighwaymenWin—Place$4.92Show$3.78Our #2

3rd4Knicks DiamondsWin—Place—Show$4.48Our #5

4th7Bourbon NeatOur #4

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

KEENELAND · RACE 1

OFFICIAL

Maiden Special Weight

Field

12 runners

Purse

$150,000

Post

11:15 AM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#5 · 42%

Maiden Special Weight, for 2-year-olds.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

● Track record at 7 Furlongs: 80.2

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #5 Powerline (a presser/stalker, M/L 8-5). Recent figures: 69 · 81. Backup is #2 Highwaymen at 6-1. Use #8 Supreme Commander in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · WON

Top pick Powerline won

What worked

✓ Top pick in the money (1st)
✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #1)
✓ Our top 3 finished 1st, 2nd, 7th

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#5 POWERLINE	1st
#2	#2 HIGHWAYMEN	2nd
#3	#8 SUPREME COMMANDER	7th
#4	#7 BOURBON NEAT	4th
#5	#4 KNICKS DIAMONDS	3rd

Actual finish

1st	#5 Powerline	our #1
2nd	#2 Highwaymen	our #2
3rd	#4 Knicks Diamonds	our #5
4th	#7 Bourbon Neat	our #4
5th	#12 Shock Value	our #7

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #5 POWERLINE (8-5) — our number agrees.
#5 POWERLINE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (33.7% to their 29.9%).
#2 HIGHWAYMEN — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 15.3%, they've got 11.1%.
#8 SUPREME COMMANDER — our #3 number, about right at the windows (13.0% to their 13.0%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#2 HIGHWAYMEN — we make it 15.3%, the morning line works out to 11.1%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #11 Overtime Bonus; pressure from #6 You Want Some; the shape helps #3 Tacamo, #4 Knicks Diamonds, #5 Powerline; and works against #1 Candor, #2 Highwaymen, #6 You Want Some.

Lead

11Overtime Bonus976You Want Some93

Press

none

Stalk

4Knicks Diamonds893Tacamo805Powerline76

9Mahogany Dream89

No style yet

12Shock Value8310Baytown Thracian651Candor2Highwaymen7Bourbon Neat8Supreme Commander

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Overtime Bonus

You Want Some

Knicks Diamonds

Tacamo

Powerline

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Mahogany Dream

Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

EXACTA / TRIFECTA / SUPERFECTA

PICK 3 (RACES 1-2-3) / DAILY DOUBLE

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

BET OPTIONS

WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta

Wagers offered on this race — analysis only, no stake sizing.