Pick sheet

Race 312:25 PM OClm 100000n3x

6.5F · Dirt · 13 entered. Our model's top pick, Saudi Crown, is 29% to win (morning line implies 26%). Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #11 Saudi Crown ML 5-2 Fair 5-2 Model #1 ► Steady ↕ Up and down 79–102 ▲ Last fig 95 at/above par 93

Jockey F. Prat · Trainer B. Cox · KEE 2: 2-0-0 · Dist 1: 1-0-0 · 42 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
9/19	PRX	1m D	PRXDrtMil Stk	4th/9 -6L	95	2.8-1	Stalked;flattened lane
6/6	SAR	1m D	MtropltH G1	5th/7 -15L	79	12-1	Vied 3w then 2w betw
4/4	KEE	7f D	Cmnwlth G3	Won/6	102	1.0-1	Press 4-5p;drove clear

Case: Last out 4th/9 -6L in the PRXDrtMilL300k at PRX. Last Brisnet figures 95-79-102. 1-for-1 at the distance. 2-for-2 at Keeneland. B. Cox / F. Prat.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #1 Booth ML 4-1 Fair 9-2 Model #2 ▲▲ Big jump +12 ★ Best at 6½f dirt: 100 ↕ Up and down 55–96

Jockey J. Ortiz · Trainer S. Asmussen · KEE 3: 1-0-0 · Dist 4: 1-1-0 · best fig at 6½f dirt 100 · 29 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	KEE	6f D	Phoenix G2	4th/8 by hd	92	6.7-1		2w-3p;vied;yielded btw
7/11	PRM	6f D	IowaSpntB100k	Won/8	96	2.3-1		Clear 5/16;kpt to task
6/27	LS	5f T	GrpTfSprtB125k	9th/9 -14L	55	16-1	L	Gave way turn

Case: Last out 4th/8 by hd in the Phoenix-G2 at KEE. Last Brisnet figures 92-96-55. Best at today's distance 100. 1-for-4 at the distance. 1-for-3 at Keeneland. S. Asmussen / J. Ortiz.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Use #2 Steeze ML 8-1 Fair 6-1 Model #3 ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best ▲ Last fig 96 at/above par 93 Lasix off Last out won in the OC80000n2x at KEE. Last Brisnet figures 96-91-84. Best at today's distance 91. 0-for-1 at the distance. 1-for-2 at Keeneland. R. Mott / J. Alvarado. Knock: 0-for-1 at the distance.

Jockey J. Alvarado · Trainer R. Mott · KEE 2: 1-0-0 · Dist 1: 0-0-1 · best fig at 6½f dirt 91 · 21 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	KEE	-7f D	OC 80k n2x	Won/9 by hd	96	5.5-1	L	2wbtw;4p1/4;rally;clrd
8/22	ELP	6½f D	OC 62k n2x	3rd/7 -4L	91	11-1	L	Lag 2p;5p upr;ran on
3/14	CNL	1 1/16 D	OC 50k n2x	4th/6 -3L	84	2.0-1	L	3wd bid turn; empty

Longshot #10 Floodlites ML 12-1 Fair 8-1 Model #4 ▼▼ Big drop -16 ↕ Up and down 76–98 ▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (76 vs 82) Lasix off

Jockey P. Lopez · Trainer W. Ward · KEE 3: 2-0-0 · Dist 1: 0-0-0 · best fig at 6½f dirt 76 · 28 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	KEE	6½f D	OC 100k n3x	4th/5 -7L	76	1.2-1	L	Last away;ins;4p upr
5/22	CD	6f D	OC 100k n3x	5th/5 -7½L	82	2.5-1	L	Trailed 4p; no impact
4/18	KEE	6f D	OC 80k n2x	Won/5	97	2.3-1	L	Ins;dug in;repelld foe

Case: Last out 4th/5 -7L in the OC100000n3x at KEE. Last Brisnet figures 76-82-97. Best at today's distance 76. 0-for-1 at the distance. 2-for-3 at Keeneland. W. Ward / P. Lopez.

Knock: 0-for-1 at the distance.

Narrowing the field: A #1, #2, #11 · B #5, #8, #9 · C #3, #4, #6, #7, #10, #12, #13

Angles: #2 Last fig 96 at/above par 93 · #3 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises · #5 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (88 vs 93) · #7 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises · #8 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises · #9 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises · #10 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (76 vs 82) · #11 Last fig 95 at/above par 93 · #13 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

R3 Keeneland · Optional Claiming $100,000

12:25 PM ET · 6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · $185,000 · 10 runners (3 out)12:25 PM · 6½f Dirt · 10 runners (3 out)

Official $185K · Optional Claiming $100,000

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Booth★Ran 2ndJ. Ortiz · S. AsmussenOrtiz · AsmussenA92 96 55▲▲+12↕@trip 1004-1Fair 9-219%▲▲ Big jump +1292 96 55 ↕@trip 100A★ Best at the trip 1002

Card model 19% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 55–96 · Best fig at today's trip 100 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 92 96 55

★ Best at the trip 100

Jockey Jose L Ortiz 37% career 11-for-72 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Steven M Asmussen 36% career ★ 10-for-49 on dirt this meet (20%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Highwaymen 6-1, R2: Harmoniously 5-1, R4: Explora 4-1, R5: Possiblemente 12-1 +7 more · Trainer R1: Powerline 8-5, this race: Extra Anejo 8-1, R8: Stradale 20-1, R12: Magnitude 6-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Runs for $185,000 today after a $400,000 race last time. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.

PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Sep 20; 1 work in 30d

RECORD Jose L Ortiz from post 1 here: 12 wins, 32 top-3 in 57 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	KEE	6f D	Phoenix G2	4th/8 by hd	92	6.7-1		2w-3p;vied;yielded btw
7/11	PRM	6f D	IowaSpntB100k	Won/8	96	2.3-1		Clear 5/16;kpt to task
6/27	LS	5f T	GrpTfSprtB125k	9th/9 -14L	55	16-1	L	Gave way turn

2Steeze▲Ran 5thJ. Alvarado · R. MottAlvarado · MottA96 91 84▲▲+8@trip 918-1Fair 6-113%▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best96 91 84@trip 91A▲ Last fig 96 at/above par 933

Card model 13% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 91 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 96 91 84

▲ Last fig 96 at/above par 93

Jockey Junior Alvarado 34% career 2-for-30 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer Riley Mott 34% career 2-for-9 on dirt this meet (22%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Right In Time 5-2, R6: T Kraft 15-1, R10: Immersive 30-1, R12: Sovereignty 5-2 · Trainer R2: Right In Time 5-2

WON LAST

Winner of a 9-horse optional claiming race at KEE last time. A longer trip: -7 furlongs last out, 6½ furlongs today.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 31d ago

RECORD Junior Alvarado from post 2 here: 6 wins, 13 top-3 in 24 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	KEE	-7f D	OC 80k n2x	Won/9 by hd	96	5.5-1	L	2wbtw;4p1/4;rally;clrd
8/22	ELP	6½f D	OC 62k n2x	3rd/7 -4L	91	11-1	L	Lag 2p;5p upr;ran on
3/14	CNL	1 1/16 D	OC 50k n2x	4th/6 -3L	84	2.0-1	L	3wd bid turn; empty

3Jimmy Rules▼W. Rodriguez · S. AndersonRodriguez · AndersonC89 93 94▲+6↕30-1<1%▲ Up +689 93 94 ↕C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
Card model <1% · Our #13 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +6 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 63–94 · Last 3 figs 89 93 94
▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
Jockey Walter A Rodriguez 34% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meet · Trainer Susan L Anderson 33% career ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R7: Eccentric 30-1
WON LAST
Comes in off a victory in a 7-horse allowance race at TDN. A step up in company: allowance before, allowance optional claiming today.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
SHARP LAST OUT Duel insd; proved best last out, and it did it the right way.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 7d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/2 TDN 6f D Alw b Won/7 89 0.7-1 L Duel insd;proved best
8/31 TDN 6f D Alw n3l Won/8 93 0.6-1 L 2w; move; easily
7/28 TDN 6f D Alw n2l Won/9 94 0.7-1 L Full of run;going away

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	TDN	6f D	Alw b	Won/7	89	0.7-1	L	Duel insd;proved best
8/31	TDN	6f D	Alw n3l	Won/8	93	0.6-1	L	2w; move; easily
7/28	TDN	6f D	Alw n2l	Won/9	94	0.7-1	L	Full of run;going away

4Lips Say BlissC. Torres · R. MedinaTorres · MedinaC89 85 92►≡15-1<1%► Steady89 85 92 ≡C

Card model <1% · Our #12 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 85–92 · Last 3 figs 89 85 92

Jockey Cristian A Torres 32% career 2-for-24 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Robert Medina 32% career 1-for-13 on dirt this meet (8%)

Also today · Trainer R4: Praying 30-1

60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORKJky 0/15 from post 4

Switches from turf to dirt. Off 62 days since the last start.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 10 (4F in :48.20), 2 works in 30d

RECORD Cristian A Torres has never won from post 4 here (4 top-3 in 15 rides) · 4% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/30	KD	6½f T	OC 100k n3x	3rd/11 -6½L	89	23-1	b L	Ins;2w str;late rally
2/8	OP	6f D	KingCottn Stk	5th/5 -6L	85	18-1	b	3p5/16;6p lane;no bid
12/20	OP	6f D	OC 62k n2x	Won/9 by 6½	92	4.3-1	b L	Off slw;bmp;rail rally

5Extra Anejo▼K. Asmussen · S. AsmussenAsmussen · AsmussenB88 93 88▼-3≡@trip 888-1<1%▼ Down -388 93 88 ≡@trip 88B▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (88 vs 93)

Card model <1% · Our #11 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -3 · ≡ Steady figures 88–93 · Best fig at today's trip 88 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 88 93 88

▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (88 vs 93)

Jockey Keith J Asmussen 34% career ★ 5-for-25 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Steven M Asmussen 36% career ★ 10-for-49 on dirt this meet (20%) ★ hot

Also today · Trainer R1: Powerline 8-5, this race: Booth 4-1, R8: Stradale 20-1, R12: Magnitude 6-1

★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

Moves up from allowance to allowance optional claiming. Won last out in an 8-horse allowance race at RP.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Sep 22; 1 work in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	RP	6½f D	Alw b	Won/8	88	0.7-1	L	Rallied; 4w; driving;
8/9	ELP	1m D	RACwbyJnsB200k	4th/7 -4L	93	12-1		Prss wnnr;btw 2nd;fade
6/27	CD	6½f D	Bango G3	5th/6 -5L	88	8.8-1		Inside;no menace btwn

6Will Take ItRan 3rdB. Hernandez Jr. · D. StewartHernandez Jr. · StewartC86 95 84▼-412-1Fair 20-15%▼ Down -486 95 84C

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -4 · Last 3 figs 86 95 84

Jockey B J Jr Hernandez 38% career 2-for-36 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Dallas Stewart 29% career 0-for-10 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Candor 20-1, R9: Brilliant Berti 30-1, R11: Burnham Square 8-1 · Trainer R1: Candor 20-1

60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

159 days since the last start, so it needs the works to say it's ready. Shortens up to 6½ furlongs after going a mile.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS Routine prep: 3 works in 30d, last 8d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
5/25	LS	1m D	SSxtnMle G3	7th/9 -3¼L	86	15-1	b	Gain 2w;angl 3-4w
5/2	CD	1m D	rKnicksGo Stk	4th/9 -3L	95	22-1	b	Got through; weakened
3/28	OP	1m D	OklwnMle G3	5th/7 -5¾L	84	12-1	b	Rated rail; no fnl bid

7Durante▼Ran 9thJ. Rosario · D. JacobsonRosario · JacobsonC81 71 80►@trip 8120-1Fair 30-13%► Steady81 71 80@trip 81C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 81 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 71 80

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey Joel Rosario 33% career 1-for-10 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer David Jacobson 32% career 4-for-14 on dirt this meet (29%)

Also today · Jockey R1: You Want Some 12-1, R6: Full Serrano 10-1, R10: Super Corredora 15-1 · Trainer this race: Tennessee Lamb 12-1

3/3 board here

A 90 top number against a 93 par, so it fits the level. Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 93).

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 7d back)

RECORD On the board in all 3 starts here (0 wins)

RECORD Joel Rosario from post 7 here: 4 wins, 10 top-3 in 28 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	KEE	6½f D	OC 100k n3x	3rd/5 -3L	81	3.9-1	b L	Clear;caught 1/4;yield
9/5	KD	6f T	TrfSprnt G2	11th/11 -6L	71	76-1	b	Hop st;4w;no threat
6/13	DEL	6f D	AlapocsRnB100k	7th/7 -4¾L	80	15-1	b	Stalk4w;6w upper;empty

8Tennessee Lamb▼Ran 7thT. Gaffalione · D. JacobsonGaffalione · JacobsonB91 90 63▲▲+18↕@trip 8912-1Fair 12-17%▲▲ Big jump +1891 90 63 ↕@trip 89B▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +18 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 63–91 · Best fig at today's trip 89 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 91 90 63

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey Tyler Gaffalione 36% career ★ 17-for-65 on dirt this meet (26%), #3 of 33 · Trainer David Jacobson 32% career 4-for-14 on dirt this meet (29%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Supreme Commander 5-1, R4: R Disaster 8-1, R6: Iron Man Cal 12-1, R7: Lush Lips 12-1 +2 more · Trainer this race: Durante 20-1

60D LAYOFF5 WORKS IN 30 DAYS2/3 board here

Changes barns, from George R Ii Arnold to David Jacobson. Has moved up each time out, 63 to 90 to 91.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 5 works in 30d, last 7d ago

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

RECORD Tyler Gaffalione from post 8 here: 10 wins, 25 top-3 in 49 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/9	ELP	1m D	RACwbyJnsB200k	5th/7 -6½L	91	34-1	b	3p;5p3/16;no factor
6/28	CD	1 1/16 D	OC 100k n3x	5th/7 -5L	90	37-1	b L	2-3p;5p1/4;no menace
5/9	CD	1⅛m D	OC 100k n3x	7th/7 -10L	63	13-1	b L	Took back btw3/4;faded

9Sir Greylind▼Ran 8thF. Arrieta · M. DouaihyArrieta · DouaihyB88 93 96▼-5≡8-1Fair 15-17%▼ Down -588 93 96 ≡B▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -5 · ≡ Steady figures 88–96 · Last 3 figs 88 93 96

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey Francisco Arrieta 32% career 2-for-43 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Michel Douaihy 27% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Knicks Diamonds 10-1, R4: Majestic Oops 15-1

180D+ LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSJky 0/15 from post 9

Freshened 267 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look. Michel Douaihy takes over the training from Kenneth G McPeek.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Bump st; 4p; 7p upper. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS SHARP 4f in :48.60 on Sep 23 was the best time at that distance that morning; 3 works in 30d

RECORD Francisco Arrieta has never won from post 9 here (3 top-3 in 15 rides) · 6% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
2/6	OP	1⅛m D	rGnMcArthrB135k	5th/7 -4¾L	88	4.2-1		Bump st; 4p; 7p upper
1/17	FG	1 1/16 D	Louisana G3	5th/8 -3L	93	7.1-1	L	Willingly outside
12/20	FG	1 1/16 D	Tenacious Stk	2nd/6 -4½L	96	2.9-1	L	Trail; rally ins; miss

10Floodlites▼LSRan 1stP. Lopez · W. WardLopez · WardC76 82 97▼▼-16↕@trip 7612-1Fair 8-111%▼▼ Big drop -1676 82 97 ↕@trip 76C▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (76 vs 82)LS

Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -16 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 76–98 · Best fig at today's trip 76 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 82 97

▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (76 vs 82)LS

Longshot read: 12-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 11% against a line of 6%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Pascacio Lopez 36% career · Trainer Wesley A Ward 36% career ★ 6-for-20 on dirt this meet (30%), #3 of 31 ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R8: Mad House 30-1 · Trainer R5: Bacio 5-2, R5: No Nay Hudson 15-1, R5: Outfielder 30-1, R7: Eccentric 30-1 +1 more

★ FASTEST WORK3/4 board here

Figures have slipped: 97, 82, 76 over its last three. Figure of 98 on the record sits above the 93 par.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Oct 19; 2 works in 30d

RECORD 2 wins, 3 on the board from 4 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	KEE	6½f D	OC 100k n3x	4th/5 -7L	76	1.2-1	L	Last away;ins;4p upr
5/22	CD	6f D	OC 100k n3x	5th/5 -7½L	82	2.5-1	L	Trailed 4p; no impact
4/18	KEE	6f D	OC 80k n2x	Won/5	97	2.3-1	L	Ins;dug in;repelld foe

11Saudi Crown▲Ran 4thF. Prat · B. CoxPrat · CoxA95 79 102►↕5-2Fair 5-229%► Steady95 79 102 ↕A▲ Last fig 95 at/above par 931

Card model 29% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 79–102 · Last 3 figs 95 79 102

▲ Last fig 95 at/above par 93

Jockey Flavien Prat 40% career ★ 12-for-24 on dirt this meet (50%), #1 of 33 · Trainer Brad H Cox 42% career 1-for-28 on dirt this meet (4%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Powerline 8-5, R2: Virabhadrasana 7-2, R4: Ways And Means 7-5, R5: Yellow Card 8-1 +7 more · Trainer R6: Further Ado 2-1, R7: Bless The Broken 20-1, R7: Stellify 12-1, R10: Immersive 30-1

4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 102, with 98 next best. Cuts back from a mile to 6½ furlongs.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 4 works in 30d, last 6d ago

RECORD Flavien Prat from post 11 here: 7 wins, 15 top-3 in 27 rides · 19% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
9/19	PRX	1m D	PRXDrtMil Stk	4th/9 -6L	95	2.8-1	Stalked;flattened lane
6/6	SAR	1m D	MtropltH G1	5th/7 -15L	79	12-1	Vied 3w then 2w betw
4/4	KEE	7f D	Cmnwlth G3	Won/6	102	1.0-1	Press 4-5p;drove clear

12Here Mi SongRan 10thE. Morales · W. Stinson Jr.Morales · Stinson Jr.C68 96 89▼▼-25↕@trip 9815-1Fair 30-13%▼▼ Big drop -2568 96 89 ↕@trip 98C

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -25 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 68–96 · Best fig at today's trip 98 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 96 89

Jockey Edgar Morales 32% career 3-for-25 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer William Jr Stinson 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

0/3 board here

2nd of 6 at 4F on Oct 23, in :48.00. Purse drops from $400,000 to $185,000 against its last start.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 8d ago

RECORD Not on the board in 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	KEE	6f D	Phoenix G2	8th/8 -9L	68	32-1	b	3p;6p upr;tire;left ld
8/17	ELP	6½f D	OC 80k b	4th/7 -½L	96	5.3-1	b L	In range 4p; bid btwn
7/18	ELP	6½f D	JeffHllMm Stk	3rd/9 -½L	89	11-1	b	Vied ins wnnr;held shw

13Henro▼Ran 6thR. Bejarano · C. HartmanBejarano · HartmanC87 86 88►≡20-1Fair 50-12%► Steady87 86 88 ≡C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 86–89 · Last 3 figs 87 86 88

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey R Bejarano 34% career 4-for-30 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Chris Hartman 33% career 2-for-10 on dirt this meet (20%) ★ hot

180D+ LAYOFF

Returns from a 195-day break. The Sep 11 work, 4F in :47.20, was the best time at that distance that morning.

EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 14d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
4/19	OP	6f D	OC 62k n1y	4th/7 -4L	87	4.1-1	L	2p-rail; rallied late
3/1	OP	6f D	RHP 75-85	4th/10 -8¾L	86	15-1	L	Bump st; 2p; 9p upper
2/13	OP	6f D	RHP 70-80	2nd/7 -4L	88	4.6-1	L	Ins1/4;5p1/8;rally plc

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #11 Saudi Crown, finished 4th.

1st10FloodlitesWin$20.08Place$8.52Show$5.82Our #4

2nd1BoothWin—Place$4.64Show$3.58Our #2

3rd6Will Take ItWin—Place—Show$6.50Our #7

4th11Saudi CrownOur #1

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

KEENELAND · RACE 3

OFFICIAL

Optional Claiming $100,000

Field

13 runners

Purse

$185,000

Post

12:25 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#11 · 29%

Claiming $100,000, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won three races other than maiden, claiming, or starter.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 6 1/2 Furlongs: 74.82

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #11 Saudi Crown (a presser/stalker, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 95 · 79 · 102. Backup is #1 Booth at 4-1. Use #2 Steeze in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · OUT

Floodlites won (our #4) · top pick Saudi Crown ran 4th

What didn't

✗ Top pick off the board (4th)
✗ Winner was outside our top 3 (our #4)
✗ Our top 3 finished 4th, 2nd, 5th

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#11 SAUDI CROWN	4th
#2	#1 BOOTH	2nd
#3	#2 STEEZE	5th
#4	#10 FLOODLITES	1st
#5	#8 TENNESSEE LAMB	7th

Actual finish

1st	#10 Floodlites	our #4
2nd	#1 Booth	our #2
3rd	#6 Will Take It	our #7
4th	#11 Saudi Crown	our #1
5th	#2 Steeze	our #3

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #11 SAUDI CROWN (5-2) — our number agrees.
#11 SAUDI CROWN — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 26.9%, they've got 21.9%.
#1 BOOTH — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 19.6%, they've got 15.4%.
#2 STEEZE — our #3 number, a price play — we're at 11.0%, the board 8.5%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#11 SAUDI CROWN — we make it 26.9%, the morning line works out to 21.9%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#1 BOOTH — we make it 19.6%, the morning line works out to 15.4%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Longshot the model rates above its line: #10 FLOODLITES (12-1) — our fair 8.0% is above the morning line's 5.9%; supported by: top barn (36%) + jockey (36%) at 12-1 (a hot trainer-jockey pairing; on our own re-test it did not beat its odds)

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #1 Booth; pressure from #3 Jimmy Rules, #7 Durante; the shape helps #2 Steeze, #3 Jimmy Rules, #5 Extra Anejo; and works against #1 Booth.

Lead

1Booth100

Press

3Jimmy Rules937Durante9312Here Mi Song8911Saudi Crown8810Floodlites83

Stalk

6Will Take It902Steeze875Extra Anejo818Tennessee Lamb72

13Henro784Lips Say Bliss769Sir Greylind71

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Booth

100

Jimmy Rules

Durante

Will Take It

Here Mi Song

Saudi Crown

Steeze

Floodlites

Extra Anejo

Tennessee Lamb

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Sir Greylind

Lips Say Bliss

Henro

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