Pick sheet

Race 73:04 PM Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1)

1 3/16 Mi · Turf · 15 entered. Our model's top pick, Precise, is 18% to win (morning line implies 18%). Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #11 Precise ML 7-2 Fair 9-2 Model #1

Jockey R. Moore · Trainer A. O'Brien · Dist 1: 0-1-0 · 27 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
10/4	LCH	1¼m T	L'pr Lngns G1	2nd/9	—	—
9/12	LEP	1m T	Clmr Amrc J G1	5th/9	—	3.0-1
8/16	DVL	1m T	Th Ag Khn S G1	3rd/10	—	—

Case: Last out 2nd in the fL'pr Lngns-G1 at LCH. 0-for-1 at the distance. A. O'Brien / R. Moore.

Knock: Never raced at Keeneland. 0-for-1 at the distance.

Contender #5 Kathynmarissa ML 5-1 Fair 5-1 Model #2 ► Steady ≡ Steady 92–98 ▲ Last fig 95 at/above par 89

Jockey J. Ortiz · Trainer C. Brown · Dist 5: 1-2-1 · best fig at 1 3/16 turf 94 · 30 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/1	BEL	1¼m T	FlwrBwl G2	Won/11 by 1	95	1.3-1	3-4p trns;5p1/4;rally
7/18	SAR	1⅛m T	Diana G1	Won/7 by 1½	98	2.3-1	5-4w 1/4;up last jumps
6/5	SAR	1 3/16 T	NewYork G1	3rd/8 -½L	94	3.8-1	4-3p;bid7/16;outfnshd

Case: Last out won in the fFlwrBwl-G2 at BEL. Last Brisnet figures 95-98-94. Best at today's distance 94. 1-for-5 at the distance. C. Brown / J. Ortiz.

Knock: Never raced at Keeneland.

Use #12 Blue Bolt ML 5-2 Fair 5-1 Model #3 Last out won in the fBtMGM Sun C-G1 at NKT. A. Balding / C. Keane. Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1m). Never raced at Keeneland.

Jockey C. Keane · Trainer A. Balding · 28 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
10/3	NKT	1m T	BtMGM Sun C G1	Won/7	—	0.2-1
9/12	LEP	1m T	Clmr Amrc J G1	Won/9	—	0.8-1
8/2	DVL	1m T	Rthschld - G1	Won/8	—	—

Longshot #1 Gimme a Nother ML 10-1 Fair 10-1 Model #4 ▲ Up +4 ▲ Last fig 94 at/above par 89

Jockey J. Velazquez · Trainer H. Motion · Dist 3: 2-0-0 · best fig at 1 3/16 turf 94 · 49 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
9/12	WO	1¼m T	EPTaylor G1	Won/8	94	3.5-1	Well time move1/8;held
8/1	CNL	1 3/16 T	BeverlyD G2	Won/9 by 2½	94	1.6-1	3p5/16;5p lane;bid1/16
6/13	MTH	1 1/16 T	Eatntwn G3	Won/6	79	1.2-1	Bid turn; ridden out

Case: Last out won in the fEPTaylor-G1 at WO. Last Brisnet figures 94-94-79. Best at today's distance 94. 2-for-3 at the distance. H. Motion / J. Velazquez.

Knock: Never raced at Keeneland.

Narrowing the field: A #5, #13, #14 · B #3, #6, #7 · C #1, #2, #8, #10, #15 · ? #4, #9, #11, #12 (no figures yet, never thrown out)

Angles: #1 Last fig 94 at/above par 89 · #2 Last fig 93 at/above par 89 · #3 Last fig 98 at/above par 89 · #5 Last fig 95 at/above par 89 · #6 Last fig 95 at/above par 89 · #7 Last fig 98 at/above par 89 · #8 Last fig 94 at/above par 89 · #10 Last fig 96 at/above par 89 · #10 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises · #13 Last fig 98 at/above par 89 · #14 Last fig 105 at/above par 89 · #15 Last fig 97 at/above par 89 · #15 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

R7 Keeneland · BCFM Turf Stakes (G1)

3:04 PM ET · 1 3/16 Miles Turf · $2,000,000 · 15 runners3:04 PM · 1 3/16m Turf · 15 runners

Upcoming $2000K · BCFM Turf Stakes (G1)

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Gimme a Nother▲LSJ. Velazquez · H. MotionVelazquez · MotionC94 94 79▲+4@trip 9410-1Fair 10-110%▲ Up +494 94 79@trip 94C▲ Last fig 94 at/above par 89LS

Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +4 · Best fig at today's trip 94 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 94 94 79

▲ Last fig 94 at/above par 89LS

Longshot read: 10-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 10% against a line of 7%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey J R Velazquez 34% career · Trainer H Graham Motion 35% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Don't Tell Mom 6-1, R4: Praying 30-1, R5: Cy Fair 8-1, R6: Bracket Buster 7-2 +4 more · Trainer R5: Roja 30-1, R11: Test Score 30-1

4 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LASTJky 10/41 from post 1

Winner of an 8-horse race at WO last time. Purse goes from $750,000 to $2,000,000, a step up.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 4 works in 30d and the last 7d back

RECORD J R Velazquez from post 1 here: 10 wins, 16 top-3 in 41 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
9/12	WO	1¼m T	EPTaylor G1	Won/8	94	3.5-1	Well time move1/8;held
8/1	CNL	1 3/16 T	BeverlyD G2	Won/9 by 2½	94	1.6-1	3p5/16;5p lane;bid1/16
6/13	MTH	1 1/16 T	Eatntwn G3	Won/6	79	1.2-1	Bid turn; ridden out

2Evershed▲M. Barzalona · A. DelacourBarzalona · DelacourC93 96 86▲▲+8↕@trip 9830-1<1%▲▲ Big jump +893 96 86 ↕@trip 98C▲ Last fig 93 at/above par 89

Card model <1% · Our #14 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 73–96 · Best fig at today's trip 98 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 93 96 86

▲ Last fig 93 at/above par 89

Jockey Mickael Barzalona 14% career · Trainer Arnaud Delacour 33% career

Also today · Jockey R11: Johanna Walsh 12-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Runs for $2,000,000 after a $500,000 race last out. A 96 in its last five clears the 89 par for this level.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP 4f in :48.00 on Oct 24 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/1	BEL	1¼m T	FlwrBwl G2	3rd/11 -1½L	93	32-1		Ins1st;ins-3p2nd;chsd
8/28	SAR	1⅜m T	Waya G3	Won/8 by nk	96	3.7-1		Tracked ins; inched cl
7/19	CNL	1 1/16 T	OC 50k n2x	3rd/8 -½L	86	3.9-1	L	4 wide move;hung late

3Classic Q▲J. Castellano · M. CasseCastellano · CasseB98 89 95▲+720-1Fair 20-14%▲ Up +7 · career best98 89 95B▲ Last fig 98 at/above par 89

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #10 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +7 · career best · Last 3 figs 98 89 95

▲ Last fig 98 at/above par 89

Jockey J J Castellano 30% career · Trainer Mark Casse 36% career

Also today · Jockey R4: Kilwin 8-1, R12: The Puma 10-1 · Trainer R1: Overtime Bonus 12-1, R5: Time To Dazzle 20-1, R9: Facteur Cheval 30-1, R10: Nitrogen 6-5 +1 more

WON LAST

Goes 1 3/16 miles after running a mile last time. Last start was a win, in a 10-horse race at KEE at 9-1.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Jul 26; 1 work in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/3	KEE	1m T	FstLdy G1	Won/10 by 1¼	98	9.0-1	3w;outkck 6p1/8;bid;up
9/5	KD	1m T	LadiesTf G2	3rd/7 -1L	89	1.4-1	Chsd ins-3w;4-5w upr
6/6	SAR	1m T	JsAGm G1	Won/8	95	6.2-1	In hand ins; held well

4Red LetterD. McMonagle · G. LyonsMcMonagle · Lyons?12-1Fair 10-18%——?
Card model 8% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier ?
Jockey Dylan Browne McMonagle · Trainer Ger Lyons 27% career
Also today · Jockey R11: Ethical Diamond 10-1
Ger Lyons takes over the training from Gm *lyons. Winless in 5 starts at this distance.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/13 CGH 1¼m T Myglr Jwls G2 3rd/10 — 6.0-1
8/23 DVL 1¼m T Sumb Jn Et G1 6th/10 — —
6/27 CGH 1¼m T Pddy Pwr Pr G1 3rd/8 — 8.5-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
9/13	CGH	1¼m T	Myglr Jwls G2	3rd/10	—	6.0-1
8/23	DVL	1¼m T	Sumb Jn Et G1	6th/10	—	—
6/27	CGH	1¼m T	Pddy Pwr Pr G1	3rd/8	—	8.5-1

5Kathynmarissa▲J. Ortiz · C. BrownOrtiz · BrownA95 98 94►≡@trip 945-1Fair 5-117%► Steady95 98 94 ≡@trip 94A▲ Last fig 95 at/above par 892

Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 92–98 · Best fig at today's trip 94 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 95 98 94

▲ Last fig 95 at/above par 89

Jockey Jose L Ortiz 37% career · Trainer Chad C Brown 37% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Highwaymen 6-1, R2: Harmoniously 5-1, R3: Booth 4-1, R4: Explora 4-1 +7 more · Trainer R4: Ways And Means 7-5, R9: Zulu Kingdom 15-1, R10: Fully Subscribed 8-5

WON LAST

Figure of 100 on the record sits above the 89 par. Won last out in an 11-horse race at BEL.

EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 7d back)

RECORD Jose L Ortiz from post 5 here: 11 wins, 30 top-3 in 60 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/1	BEL	1¼m T	FlwrBwl G2	Won/11 by 1	95	1.3-1	3-4p trns;5p1/4;rally
7/18	SAR	1⅛m T	Diana G1	Won/7 by 1½	98	2.3-1	5-4w 1/4;up last jumps
6/5	SAR	1 3/16 T	NewYork G1	3rd/8 -½L	94	3.8-1	4-3p;bid7/16;outfnshd

6Thought Process▲M. Franco · P. DamatoFranco · DamatoB95 98 92►≡15-1<1%► Steady95 98 92 ≡B▲ Last fig 95 at/above par 89

Card model <1% · Our #13 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 89–98 · Last 3 figs 95 98 92

▲ Last fig 95 at/above par 89

Jockey Manuel Franco 33% career · Trainer Philip Damato

Also today · Jockey R1: Shock Value 12-1, R4: Simply Joking 30-1, R5: Roja 30-1, R6: Moonlight 15-1 +4 more · Trainer R4: Majestic Oops 15-1, R5: Sorrento Sky 12-1, R6: Iron Man Cal 12-1

WON LAST

Purse goes from $200,000 to $2,000,000, a step up. Comes in off a victory in an 11-horse race at SA.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

SHARP LAST OUT Much the best last out, and it did it the right way.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 7d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/3	SA	1¼m T	RodeoDr G2	Won/11	95	0.8-1	Much the best
9/7	DMR	1⅛m T	JCMabee G2	2nd/10 by hd	98	0.6-1	Bid btwn;led;outkicked
5/25	SA	1⅛m T	Gamely G1	Won/8	92	1.4-1	Ins;aim2wd;proved best

7Bless the Broken▲O. Murphy · B. CoxMurphy · CoxB98 91 98▲+3≡20-1Fair 20-14%▲ Up +3 · career best98 91 98 ≡B▲ Last fig 98 at/above par 89

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #11 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +3 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 91–98 · Last 3 figs 98 91 98

▲ Last fig 98 at/above par 89

Jockey Oisin Murphy 24% career · Trainer Brad H Cox 42% career

Also today · Jockey R5: Time To Dazzle 20-1, R8: American Stage 30-1, R9: Lugal 30-1, R11: Bay City Roller 5-1 · Trainer R3: Saudi Crown 5-2, R6: Further Ado 2-1, this race: Stellify 12-1, R10: Immersive 30-1

A longer trip: a mile last out, 1 3/16 miles today. Has run 98 against a 89 par for the class.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 7d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/3	KEE	1m T	FstLdy G1	3rd/10 -3¼L	98	10.0-1	4w trns;7p upr;gaining
9/5	KD	1m T	LadiesTf G2	Won/7 by ½	91	8.6-1	Stlkd 4w;surged 1/16
7/24	SAR	1⅛m D	Shuvee G2	4th/6 -6½L	98	3.8-1	3-4p;8p3/16;mvd in1/8

8Jancis▲B. Lee · W. McCreeryLee · McCreeryC9420-1Fair 20-15%—94C▲ Last fig 94 at/above par 89
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 94
▲ Last fig 94 at/above par 89
Jockey Billy Lee 14% career · Trainer Willie McCreery
A 49-day gap since its last race. Purse goes from $750,000 to $2,000,000, a step up.
EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.
TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (7Wstr; strong finish), and the figure already reflects it.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/12 WO 1¼m T EPTaylor G1 3rd/8 -2L 94 4.6-1 7Wstr;strong finish
7/10 NKT 1m T Tttrslls Sc G1 5th/7 — 7.5-1
6/17 ASC 1m T Duk Of Cmbr G2 2nd/15 — 16-1
9EccentricW. Rodriguez · W. WardRodriguez · Ward?30-1<1%——?
Card model <1% · Our #15 · Tier ?
Jockey Walter A Rodriguez 34% career · Trainer Wesley A Ward 36% career ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R3: Jimmy Rules 30-1 · Trainer R3: Floodlites 12-1, R5: Bacio 5-2, R5: No Nay Hudson 15-1, R5: Outfielder 30-1 +1 more
60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST
Back after 153 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field. New trainer: * had it last time, Wesley A Ward now.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 3 works in 30d, last one 11d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
5/31 *CP 1¼m T Clbhpsntg1 G1 Won/13 — 4.0-1
5/4 *CP 1⅛m T Ccampinog2 G2 2nd/8 — 1.0-1
3/27 *CP 1¼m T Crncnbnug2 G2 3rd/8 — 2.0-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
9/12	WO	1¼m T	EPTaylor G1	3rd/8 -2L	94	4.6-1	7Wstr;strong finish
7/10	NKT	1m T	Tttrslls Sc G1	5th/7	—	7.5-1
6/17	ASC	1m T	Duk Of Cmbr G2	2nd/15	—	16-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
5/31	*CP	1¼m T	Clbhpsntg1 G1	Won/13	—	4.0-1
5/4	*CP	1⅛m T	Ccampinog2 G2	2nd/8	—	1.0-1
3/27	*CP	1¼m T	Crncnbnug2 G2	3rd/8	—	2.0-1

10Expensive Queen▲▼L. Saez · B. WalshSaez · WalshC96 91 93▲+4≡15-1Fair 15-16%▲ Up +4 · career best96 91 93 ≡C▲ Last fig 96 at/above par 89▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +4 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 91–96 · Last 3 figs 96 91 93

▲ Last fig 96 at/above par 89▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey Luis Saez 36% career · Trainer Brendan P Walsh 36% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Overtime Bonus 12-1, R2: She's Toasty 9-2, R4: Evanescence 15-1, R5: Shisospicy 15-1 +5 more · Trainer R1: Supreme Commander 5-1, this race: Lush Lips 12-1

2/3 board here

2nd of 6 at 4F on Oct 20, in :50.80. Stretches out from a mile to 1 3/16 miles.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: 2w btw; traffic 7-9p1/8. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS Routine prep: 2 works in 30d, last 4d ago

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

RECORD Luis Saez from post 10 here: 7 wins, 18 top-3 in 48 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	KEE	1m T	FstLdy G1	6th/10 -4½L	96	5.2-1		2w btw;traffic 7-9p1/8
4/11	KEE	1 1/16 T	JenyWily G1	2nd/8 -1L	91	2.9-1		Stalk ins;bid1/16;duel
2/14	FG	1 1/16 T	AMStallMm Stk	Won/9	93	4.2-1	L	Roused 4w;kicked clear

11PreciseR. Moore · A. O'BrienMoore · O'Brien?7-2Fair 9-218%——?1
Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #1 · Tier ?
Jockey Ryan L Moore 14% career · Trainer Aidan P O'Brien 25% career
Also today · Jockey R9: Puerto Rico 10-1, R11: Benvenuto Cellini 6-1 · Trainer R9: True Love 8-1, R9: Puerto Rico 10-1, R11: Benvenuto Cellini 6-1, R11: Diamond Necklace 3-1
Changes barns, from A P *o'brien to Aidan P O'Brien. Purse goes from $562,938 to $2,000,000, a step up.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/4 LCH 1¼m T L'pr Lngns G1 2nd/9 — —
9/12 LEP 1m T Clmr Amrc J G1 5th/9 — 3.0-1
8/16 DVL 1m T Th Ag Khn S G1 3rd/10 — —
12Blue BoltC. Keane · A. BaldingKeane · Balding?5-2Fair 5-116%——?3
Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier ?
Jockey Colin T Keane 14% career · Trainer Andrew Balding 14% career
Also today · Jockey R9: Qirat 30-1
WON LAST
Carries 124 pounds, 7 less than last time. Winner of a 7-horse race at NKT last time.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/3 NKT 1m T BtMGM Sun C G1 Won/7 — 0.2-1
9/12 LEP 1m T Clmr Amrc J G1 Won/9 — 0.8-1
8/2 DVL 1m T Rthschld - G1 Won/8 — —

13Lush Lips▲T. Gaffalione · B. WalshGaffalione · WalshA98 87 84▲▲+1012-1Fair 20-15%▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best98 87 84A▲ Last fig 98 at/above par 89

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · Last 3 figs 98 87 84

▲ Last fig 98 at/above par 89

Jockey Tyler Gaffalione 36% career · Trainer Brendan P Walsh 36% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Supreme Commander 5-1, R3: Tennessee Lamb 12-1, R4: R Disaster 8-1, R6: Iron Man Cal 12-1 +2 more · Trainer R1: Supreme Commander 5-1, this race: Expensive Queen 15-1

★ FASTEST WORKJky 0/19 from post 13

Has moved up each time out, 84 to 87 to 98. The Oct 20 work, 4F in :50.40, was the best time at that distance that morning.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP 4f in :50.40 on Oct 20 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30d

RECORD Tyler Gaffalione has never won from post 13 here (1 top-3 in 19 rides) · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/3	KEE	1m T	FstLdy G1	2nd/10	98	2.4-1	Ins;surge clr1/8;naild
8/23	ELP	1 1/16 T	ElPTurfB175k	2nd/10	87	0.5-1	Ins;clear upr;cght lat
2/28	GP	1m T	HoneyFox G3	Won/7 by 3	84	1.7-1	2wd; 4wd 1/4; kick in

14Stellify▲F. Prat · B. CoxPrat · CoxA105 91 102▲▲+8@trip 9112-1Fair 20-15%▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best105 91 102@trip 91A▲ Last fig 105 at/above par 89

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #9 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 91 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 105 91 102

▲ Last fig 105 at/above par 89

Jockey Flavien Prat 40% career · Trainer Brad H Cox 42% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Powerline 8-5, R2: Virabhadrasana 7-2, R3: Saudi Crown 5-2, R4: Ways And Means 7-5 +7 more · Trainer R3: Saudi Crown 5-2, R6: Further Ado 2-1, this race: Bless The Broken 20-1, R10: Immersive 30-1

4 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST

Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 105, with 100 next best. Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 90).

PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 3)

SHARP LAST OUT Last time the chart read: Well handled; drew away.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 4 works in 30d, last 7d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
9/6	KD	1 5/16 T	LdsMthn G3	Won/9	105	0.6-1	Well handled;drew away
8/1	CNL	1 3/16 T	BeverlyD G2	4th/9 -5L	91	2.6-1	Bump st;2p;float6p upr
11/1	DMR	1⅜m T	BCFMTrf G1	7th/13 -4¾L	102	13-1	Check;pull early;2-4wd

15Vina Arana▲▼A. Beschizza · J. SistersonBeschizza · SistersonC97 96 95▲+5@trip 8130-1Fair 50-12%▲ Up +5 · career best97 96 95@trip 81C▲ Last fig 97 at/above par 89▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #12 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +5 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 81 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 97 96 95

▲ Last fig 97 at/above par 89▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey Adam Beschizza 33% career · Trainer Jack Sisterson 29% career

Also today · Jockey R9: Vina Arana 30-1 · Trainer R9: Vina Arana 30-1

0/3 board here

Dropped in well back early last out, 10th of 10 at the first call. Stretches out from a mile to 1 3/16 miles.

EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 7 days ago

RECORD Not on the board in 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	KEE	1m T	FstLdy G1	4th/10 -4L	97	55-1		2-3p;8-10p1/8;willngly
8/29	KD	6½f T	LdsTfSpt G1	5th/10 -4½L	96	28-1		3w;bmp str;need punch
7/19	WO	1m T	Nassau G2	Won/6	95	2.1-1	L	To lead4W3/16;coast in

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

KEENELAND · RACE 7

UPCOMING

BCFM Turf Stakes (G1)

Field

15 runners

Purse

$2,000,000

Post

3:04 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#11 · 18%

Stakes, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Track record at 1 3/16 Miles: 111.88

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #11 Precise (a tactical type, M/L 7-2). It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #5 Kathynmarissa at 5-1. Use #12 Blue Bolt in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #12 BLUE BOLT (5-2) — our number has it ranked #3.
#12 BLUE BOLT — our #3 number, about right at the windows (20.7% to their 21.0%).
#11 PRECISE — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 18.8%, they've got 16.3%.
#5 KATHYNMARISSA — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 15.4%, they've got 12.2%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#11 PRECISE — we make it 18.8%, the morning line works out to 16.3%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#5 KATHYNMARISSA — we make it 15.4%, the morning line works out to 12.2%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Longshot the model rates above its line: #1 GIMME A NOTHER (10-1) — our fair 7.9% is above the morning line's 6.7%; supported by: top barn (35%) + jockey (34%) at 10-1 (a hot trainer-jockey pairing; on our own re-test it did not beat its odds)

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #14 Stellify; pressure from #3 Classic Q, #13 Lush Lips; the shape helps #1 Gimme A Nother, #2 Evershed, #3 Classic Q; and works against #4 Red Letter, #9 Eccentric, #11 Precise.

Lead

14Stellify90

Press

3Classic Q9413Lush Lips907Bless The Broken881Gimme A Nother806Thought Process75

Stalk

10Expensive Queen892Evershed82

15Vina Arana855Kathynmarissa828Jancis75

No style yet

4Red Letter9Eccentric11Precise12Blue Bolt

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Classic Q

Lush Lips

Stellify

Expensive Queen

Bless The Broken

Evershed

Gimme A Nother

Thought Process

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Jancis

Vina Arana

Kathynmarissa

Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

EXACTA / TRIFECTA / SUPERFECTA

PICK 3 (RACES 7-8-9) / DAILY DOUBLE

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

BET OPTIONS

WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta

Wagers offered on this race — analysis only, no stake sizing.