Pick sheet

Race 51:48 PM Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (G1)Early Pick 4 starts

5.5F · Turf · 18 entered. Our model's top pick, Bacio, is 25% to win (morning line implies 21%). Pace: fast and contested (11 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #3 Bacio ML 5-2 Fair 3-1 Model #1 ► Steady

Jockey J. Hernandez · Trainer W. Ward · Dist 5: 4-1-0 · 71 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/21	YOR	5f T	Clmr Cty Of G1	Won/18	—	3.0-1
6/19	ASC	5f T	Plc Of Hly156k	Won/27	—	3.0-1
4/28	CD	5f T	OC 80k n2x	Won/7	92	0.3-1	L	Handy

Case: Last out won in the Clmr Cty Of-G1 at YOR. Last Brisnet figures 92. 4-for-5 at the distance. W. Ward / J. Hernandez.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 5f). Off 71 days.

Contender #7 Comanche Brave ML 3-1 Fair 9-2 Model #2

Jockey B. Loughnane · Trainer D. O'Brien · Dist 1: 1-0-0 · 48 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
9/13	CGH	5f T	Br 1 Bttng G1	Won/17	—	2.5-1
7/11	NKT	6f T	Al Bst Equw G1	Won/11	—	11-1
6/20	ASC	6f T	Qun Elzbth G1	7th/18	—	7.5-1

Case: Last out won in the Br 1 Bttng-G1 at CGH. 1-for-1 at the distance. D. O'Brien / B. Loughnane.

Knock: Never raced at Keeneland. No recent Brisnet figures (raced overseas).

Use #6 Yellow Card ML 8-1 Fair 10-1 Model #3 ▲ Up +3 ≡ Steady 91–96 Last out won in the TurfSprt-G2 at CD. Last Brisnet figures 96-93-96. Best at today's distance 96. 3-for-7 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Keeneland. M. McCarthy / F. Prat. Knock: Off 182 days.

Jockey F. Prat · Trainer M. McCarthy · KEE 1: 0-1-0 · Dist 7: 3-2-0 · best fig at 5½f turf 96 · 182 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
5/2	CD	5½f T	TurfSprt G2	Won/10 by 1½	96	2.9-1	Long drv btw;prevailed
4/4	KEE	5½f T	Shakrtwn G2	2nd/12 -2½L	93	4.3-1	Pinch9/16;8p upr;rally
2/8	SA	6f T	rClockrCnrB100k	Won/7 by 2	96	3.2-1	Crowded early;2w;swung

Longshot #2 Shisospicy ML 15-1 Fair 20-1 Model #7 ▼▼ Big drop -20

Jockey L. Saez · Trainer J. D'Angelo · KEE 1: 1-0-0 · Dist 5: 4-0-0 · best fig at 5½f turf 97 · 183 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
5/1	CD	5½f T	UnbdlSdn G2	7th/7 -6L	80	0.7-1	b	Bob bit st;3p;wknd btw
11/1	DMR	5f T	BCTrfSpt G1	Won/12	106	5.3-1	b	Pace inside; drew away
9/6	KD	6½f T	MusicCty G2	Won/12	96	3.2-1	b	Inside; kicked clear

Case: Last out 7th/7 -6L in the fUnbdlSdn-G2 at CD. Last Brisnet figures 80-106-96. Best at today's distance 97. 4-for-5 at the distance. 1-for-1 at Keeneland. J. D'Angelo / L. Saez.

Knock: Off 183 days.

Narrowing the field: A #6, #9, #11 · B #2, #10, #16 · C #1, #3, #4, #5, #8, #12, #13, #17, #18 · ? #7, #14, #15 (no figures yet, never thrown out)

Angles: #1 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises · #8 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises · #9 Last fig 105 at/above par 97 · #11 Last fig 98 at/above par 97 · #13 Last fig 98 at/above par 97 · #16 Last fig 97 at/above par 97 · #17 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

R5 Keeneland · B.C. Turf Spt Stakes (G1)

1:48 PM ET · 5 1/2 Furlongs Turf · $1,000,000 · 2 runners (16 out)1:48 PM · 5½f Turf · 2 runners (16 out)

Official $1000K · B.C. Turf Spt Stakes (G1)

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1John the Beer Man▼K. Carmouche · R. AtrasCarmouche · AtrasC80 98 96▼▼-16@trip 9830-12%▼▼ Big drop -1680 98 96@trip 98C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #13 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -16 · Best fig at today's trip 98 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 98 96

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey K Carmouche 36% career · Trainer Rob Atras 32% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R9: Deterministic 8-1

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Purse drops from $1,750,000 to $1,000,000 against its last start. 2 wins from 3 starts at this distance.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 6)

TROUBLED TRIP Forward; 3-5w; flattened last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 3 works in 30d and the last 6 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/5	KD	6f T	TrfSprnt G2	7th/11 -3¼L	80	1.4-1	b	Forward;3-5w;flattened
8/9	SAR	5½f T	Troy G2	Won/8	98	3.5-1	b	Pace 2p; bump; gamely
6/6	SAR	5½f T	Jaipur G1	3rd/10 by hd	96	6.0-1	b	Hustled st; battled on

2ShisospicyL. Saez · J. D'AngeloSaez · D'AngeloB80 106 96▼▼-20@trip 9715-15%▼▼ Big drop -2080 106 96@trip 97B

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -20 · Best fig at today's trip 97 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 106 96

Jockey Luis Saez 36% career · Trainer Jose Francisco D'Angelo 37% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Overtime Bonus 12-1, R2: She's Toasty 9-2, R4: Evanescence 15-1, R6: Owen Almighty 10-1 +5 more

180D+ LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK

Freshened 183 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look. Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 106, with 105 next best.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 7)

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 15 (5F in :59.40), 3 works in 30d

RECORD Luis Saez from post 2 here: 10 wins, 31 top-3 in 70 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
5/1	CD	5½f T	UnbdlSdn G2	7th/7 -6L	80	0.7-1	b	Bob bit st;3p;wknd btw
11/1	DMR	5f T	BCTrfSpt G1	Won/12	106	5.3-1	b	Pace inside; drew away
9/6	KD	6½f T	MusicCty G2	Won/12	96	3.2-1	b	Inside; kicked clear

3BacioRan 1stJ. Hernandez · W. WardHernandez · WardC92 92 95►5-2Fair 3-125%► Steady92 92 95C1
Card model 25% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #1 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 92 92 95
Jockey Juan J Hernandez 38% career · Trainer Wesley A Ward 36% career ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R4: Sweet Azteca 8-1 · Trainer R3: Floodlites 12-1, this race: No Nay Hudson 15-1, this race: Outfielder 30-1, R7: Eccentric 30-1 +1 more
60D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST
Won last out in an 18-horse claiming race at YOR. New trainer: Wesley A *ward had it last time, Wesley A Ward now.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 8)
WORKS Routine prep: 4 works in 30d, last 6d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
8/21 YOR 5f T Clmr Cty Of G1 Won/18 — 3.0-1
6/19 ASC 5f T Plc Of Hly156k Won/27 — 3.0-1
4/28 CD 5f T OC 80k n2x Won/7 92 0.3-1 L Handy

4RojaM. Franco · H. MotionFranco · MotionC85 97 89▼-7@trip 9730-12%▼ Down -785 97 89@trip 97C

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #14 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -7 · Best fig at today's trip 97 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 97 89

Jockey Manuel Franco 33% career · Trainer H Graham Motion 35% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Shock Value 12-1, R4: Simply Joking 30-1, R6: Moonlight 15-1, R7: Thought Process 15-1 +4 more · Trainer R7: Gimme A Nother 10-1, R11: Test Score 30-1

60D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST

Comes in off a victory in a 6-horse race at CNL. Returns from a 91-day break.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 8)

WORKS Routine prep: 4 works in 30d, last 7d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/1	CNL	5½f T	AndyGuestB150k	Won/6	85	0.4-1		2p-ins;clear uppr;safe
6/4	SAR	5½f T	Intcntnt G2	Won/9	97	5.7-1		Cut pace 2p; held well
4/29	CD	5f T	OC 80k n2x	Won/9	89	0.9-1	L	Ins;shk clear upr;held

5Time to DazzleO. Murphy · M. CasseMurphy · CasseC94 99 93►≡@trip 9620-13%► Steady94 99 93 ≡@trip 96C

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 90–99 · Best fig at today's trip 96 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 94 99 93

Jockey Oisin Murphy 24% career · Trainer Mark Casse 36% career

Also today · Jockey R7: Bless The Broken 20-1, R8: American Stage 30-1, R9: Lugal 30-1, R11: Bay City Roller 5-1 · Trainer R1: Overtime Bonus 12-1, R7: Classic Q 20-1, R9: Facteur Cheval 30-1, R10: Nitrogen 6-5 +1 more

WON LAST2/3 board here

Runs for $1,000,000 after a $400,000 race last out. Last start was a win, in a 7-horse race at KEE at 2-1.

PACE HELPS The front end should be a fight, and this one gets to wait on it.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (5w1/4; rally; up at wire), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 27d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	KEE	5½f T	Franklin G2	Won/7 by 5	94	2.0-1		5w1/4;rally;up at wire
8/29	KD	6½f T	LdsTfSpt G1	2nd/10 -3½L	99	12-1		Stlkd 3-4w;held 2nd
7/25	WO	6½f D	Hendrie G3	2nd/9 -1½L	93	3.8-1	L	4wd turn; held 2nd

6Yellow CardF. Prat · M. McCarthyPrat · McCarthyA96 93 96▲+3≡@trip 968-110%▲ Up +396 93 96 ≡@trip 96A

Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +3 · ≡ Steady figures 91–96 · Best fig at today's trip 96 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 96 93 96

Jockey Flavien Prat 40% career · Trainer Michael W McCarthy

Also today · Jockey R1: Powerline 8-5, R2: Virabhadrasana 7-2, R3: Saudi Crown 5-2, R4: Ways And Means 7-5 +7 more · Trainer R4: Look Forward 20-1, R4: Simply Joking 30-1, R9: Formidable Man 15-1

180D+ LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST

Back after 182 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. Has won 3 of 7 going today's distance.

EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (4 works in 30d, last 7d ago)

RECORD Flavien Prat from post 6 here: 8 wins, 26 top-3 in 49 rides · 19% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
5/2	CD	5½f T	TurfSprt G2	Won/10 by 1½	96	2.9-1	Long drv btw;prevailed
4/4	KEE	5½f T	Shakrtwn G2	2nd/12 -2½L	93	4.3-1	Pinch9/16;8p upr;rally
2/8	SA	6f T	rClockrCnrB100k	Won/7 by 2	96	3.2-1	Crowded early;2w;swung

7Comanche BraveB. Loughnane · D. O'BrienLoughnane · O'Brien?3-119%——?
Card model 19% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #2 · Tier ?
Jockey Billy Loughnane 14% career · Trainer Donnacha O'Brien 25% career
WON LAST
Changes barns, from Donnacha *o'brien to Donnacha O'Brien. Purse goes from $433,366 to $1,000,000, a step up.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/13 CGH 5f T Br 1 Bttng G1 Won/17 — 2.5-1
7/11 NKT 6f T Al Bst Equw G1 Won/11 — 11-1
6/20 ASC 6f T Qun Elzbth G1 7th/18 — 7.5-1

8Possiblemente▼J. Ortiz · J. SharpOrtiz · SharpC87 89 92▼-5≡@trip 9412-16%▼ Down -587 89 92 ≡@trip 94C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -5 · ≡ Steady figures 87–94 · Best fig at today's trip 94 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 87 89 92

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey Jose L Ortiz 37% career · Trainer Joe Sharp 40% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Highwaymen 6-1, R2: Harmoniously 5-1, R3: Booth 4-1, R4: Explora 4-1 +7 more

4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

Posted the fastest 4F work of the morning on Oct 17, in :48.00. Winner of an 11-horse race at KD last time.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

WORKS SHARP 4f in :48.00 on Oct 17 was the best time at that distance that morning; 4 works in 30d

RECORD Jose L Ortiz from post 8 here: 5 wins, 14 top-3 in 43 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/5	KD	6f T	TrfSprnt G2	Won/11	87	4.8-1	b	Attnd pace;shook free
7/5	SAR	5½f T	HarvyPack Stk	2nd/8 -1L	89	7.3-1	b	Bmpd early;svd ground
5/30	WO	6f D	JcqCrtir G3	Won/7 by 3½	92	4.5-1	b L	Poised;surged 70yds

9In Our Time▲M. Husbands · S. Joseph Jr.Husbands · Joseph Jr.A105 89 91▲▲+13@trip 9720-13%▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best105 89 91@trip 97A▲ Last fig 105 at/above par 97

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #10 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 97 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 105 89 91

▲ Last fig 105 at/above par 97

Jockey Micah J Husbands 35% career · Trainer Saffie A Jr Joseph

Also today · Jockey R10: Eunomia 30-1 · Trainer R4: R Disaster 8-1, R4: Kerry's Kiss 20-1, R6: Forged Steel 15-1, R10: Eunomia 30-1

60D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST

Has run 105 against a 97 par for the class. Shortens up to 5½ furlongs after going 6½ furlongs.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Aug 22; 4 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
8/29	KD	6½f T	LdsTfSpt G1	Won/10	105	5.5-1	Brk shrp;ins;drw clear
7/11	SAR	5½f T	Caress G2	3rd/5	89	1.5-1	Dueled 3w; kept on
6/4	SAR	5½f T	Intcntnt G2	5th/9 -3L	91	2.6-1	Stumbled st; one paced

10Cy FairLSRan 2ndJ. Velazquez · G. WeaverVelazquez · WeaverB91 95 96▼-5≡@trip 968-1Fair 12-18%▼ Down -591 95 96 ≡@trip 96BLS

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -5 · ≡ Steady figures 91–96 · Best fig at today's trip 96 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 91 95 96

Longshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 8% against a line of 7%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey J R Velazquez 34% career · Trainer George Weaver 37% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Don't Tell Mom 6-1, R4: Praying 30-1, R6: Bracket Buster 7-2, R7: Gimme A Nother 10-1 +4 more

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

5 wins from 7 starts at this distance. Back to 5½ furlongs off a 6½ furlongs race.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 4 works in 30d, last 7d back

RECORD J R Velazquez from post 10 here: 4 wins, 7 top-3 in 21 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
9/5	KD	6½f T	MusicCty G2	6th/12 -2½L	91	0.5-1	Inside;lacked room
7/18	SAR	5½f T	CrntnCp G3	Won/5 by ½	95	0.5-1	Path taken7/16;ins trn
4/30	CD	5½f T	Mamzelle G3	Won/9	96	1.0-1	3-4p;bid upr;duel;edge

11Joe Shiesty▲L. De · E. FosterDe · FosterA98 93 92▲+5≡@trip 9810-17%▲ Up +5 · career best98 93 92 ≡@trip 98A▲ Last fig 98 at/above par 97

Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +5 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 92–98 · Best fig at today's trip 98 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 98 93 92

▲ Last fig 98 at/above par 97

Jockey La Cruz Fernando De · Trainer Eric Foster 30% career

★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST3/4 board here

Has moved up each time out, 92 to 93 to 98. Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 100).

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 8)

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 10d back)

RECORD 2 wins, 3 on the board from 4 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	KEE	5½f T	Woodford G2	Won/9 by hd	98	2.9-1	b	Ins foe;dug in 2p;game
8/2	ELP	5½f T	TurfSprnt Stk	Won/9	93	2.2-1	b	Ins;cleared 3/16;held
6/6	CD	5f T	MghtyBeau Stk	2nd/7 by hd	92	1.5-1	b	Inside;gamely;held 2nd

12Sorrento SkyU. Rispoli · P. DamatoRispoli · DamatoC93 91 91►≡12-15%► Steady93 91 91 ≡C

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 90–93 · Last 3 figs 93 91 91

Jockey Umberto Rispoli 37% career · Trainer Philip Damato

Also today · Jockey R2: Girls Wear Pearls 12-1, R4: Look Forward 20-1 · Trainer R4: Majestic Oops 15-1, R6: Iron Man Cal 12-1, R7: Thought Process 15-1

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

Stretches out from -6½ furlongs to 5½ furlongs. 3rd of 8 at 4F on Oct 9, in :49.20.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Swung 5w; charged home. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Oct 17; 3 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	SA	-6½f T	EddieD G2	Won/7 by 2¼	93	2.1-1		Swung 5w;charged home
8/22	DMR	5f T	GrnFlshH G2	Won/8 by 3½	91	7.0-1		Ins-2w;mvd out;rallied
7/19	DMR	5f T	OC 100k b	3rd/7 -3¼L	91	9.5-1	L	2wd;angled;game3rd

13Starlust▲R. Ryan · R. BeckettRyan · BeckettC9820-12%—98C▲ Last fig 98 at/above par 97
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #12 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 98
▲ Last fig 98 at/above par 97
Jockey Rossa Ryan 14% career · Trainer Ralph Beckett 14% career
Also today · Trainer R9: Qirat 30-1
Ralph Beckett takes over the training from Ralph *beckett. Runs for $1,000,000 after a $131,751 race last out.
PACE HELPS Several horses want the lead, which is the early heat a closer is looking for.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/19 NBY 5.2f T Dub Intrntn G3 4th/11 — 2.2-1
9/13 CGH 5f T Br 1 Bttng G1 4th/17 — 12-1
8/21 YOR 5f T Clmr Cty Of G1 2nd/18 — 25-1
14Miss YechanceJ. Nicholls · K. BurkeNicholls · Burke?15-12%——?
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #11 · Tier ?
Jockey Jack Nicholls 30% career · Trainer Karl Burke 18% career
WON LAST
Sheds 12 pounds from its last start. New trainer: K R *burke had it last time, Karl Burke now.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/4 LCH 4.97273f T L'bby Lngch G1 Won/15 — —
9/19 NBY 5.2f T Dub Intrntn G3 Won/11 — 12-1
8/19 YOR 5f T Irsh Thrug133k Won/19 — 9.0-1
15Big MojoT. Marquand · M. ApplebyMarquand · Appleby?20-1<1%——?
Card model <1% · Our #18 · Tier ?
Jockey Tom Marquand 14% career · Trainer Michael Appleby 27% career
Also today · Jockey R11: Deep Monster 30-1
Tom Marquand takes over from William *buick in the saddle. Purse goes from $585,904 to $1,000,000, a step up.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 6)
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 731d back)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/5 HAY 6f T Btfr Sprnt G1 3rd/8 — 9.0-1
8/9 CGH 6f T FBD Htls An G3 Won/5 — 1.2-1
7/11 NKT 6f T Al Bst Equw G1 10th/11 — 12-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
9/19	NBY	5.2f T	Dub Intrntn G3	4th/11	—	2.2-1
9/13	CGH	5f T	Br 1 Bttng G1	4th/17	—	12-1
8/21	YOR	5f T	Clmr Cty Of G1	2nd/18	—	25-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
10/4	LCH	4.97273f T	L'bby Lngch G1	Won/15	—	—
9/19	NBY	5.2f T	Dub Intrntn G3	Won/11	—	12-1
8/19	YOR	5f T	Irsh Thrug133k	Won/19	—	9.0-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
9/5	HAY	6f T	Btfr Sprnt G1	3rd/8	—	9.0-1
8/9	CGH	6f T	FBD Htls An G3	Won/5	—	1.2-1
7/11	NKT	6f T	Al Bst Equw G1	10th/11	—	12-1

16No Nay Hudson▲J. Ortiz · W. WardOrtiz · WardB97 89 89▲+5@trip 9715-1<1%▲ Up +5 · career best97 89 89@trip 97B▲ Last fig 97 at/above par 97

Card model <1% · Our #16 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +5 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 97 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 97 89 89

▲ Last fig 97 at/above par 97

Jockey Jose L Ortiz 37% career · Trainer Wesley A Ward 36% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Highwaymen 6-1, R2: Harmoniously 5-1, R3: Booth 4-1, R4: Explora 4-1 +7 more · Trainer R3: Floodlites 12-1, this race: Bacio 5-2, this race: Outfielder 30-1, R7: Eccentric 30-1 +1 more

3/5 board here

Carries 126 pounds, 5 more than last time. Purse goes from $400,000 to $1,000,000, a step up.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 6d back)

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 5 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/3	KEE	5½f T	Woodford G2	2nd/9 -2L	97	7.9-1	Ins;2-4p1/8;rally;bid
8/22	DMR	5f T	GrnFlshH G2	2nd/8 -2L	89	6.6-1	2w;aim1/8;outkicked
4/4	KEE	5½f T	Shakrtwn G2	7th/12 -5¾L	89	16-1	2w;5p1/4;no menace

17Doncho▼R. Santana Jr. · M. LovellSantana Jr. · LovellC96 98 91►≡@trip 9820-1<1%► Steady96 98 91 ≡@trip 98C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model <1% · Our #15 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 91–98 · Best fig at today's trip 98 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 96 98 91

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey Ricardo Jr Santana · Trainer Michelle Lovell 25% career

Also today · Jockey R4: Foie Gras 20-1, R8: Hymn 15-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Worked 5F in :58.80 on Sep 20, 3rd of 11 at the distance. 4 wins from 9 starts at this distance.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS SHARP 4f in :46.80 on Oct 22 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 4 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	KEE	5½f T	Woodford G2	3rd/9	96	2.3-1		2w;duel 3p1/4;yld late
8/9	SAR	5½f T	Troy G2	3rd/8 -½L	98	6.9-1		Bumped foe repeatedly
7/10	IND	5f T	WmGarrttHB100k	Won/8	91	1.0-1	L	Stmb;clear;held sway

18OutfielderD. Egan · W. WardEgan · WardC94 86 92▲+5@trip 9430-1<1%▲ Up +5 · career best94 86 92@trip 94C
Card model <1% · Our #17 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +5 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 94 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 94 86 92
Jockey David Egan 27% career · Trainer Wesley A Ward 36% career
Also today · Trainer R3: Floodlites 12-1, this race: Bacio 5-2, this race: No Nay Hudson 15-1, R7: Eccentric 30-1 +1 more
WON LAST
Dropped in well back early last out, 6th of 7 at the first call. Last start was a win, in a 7-horse allowance race at KEE at 1.7-1.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 11 days ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/8 KEE 5½f T Alw C Won/7 by 4 94 1.7-1 L Ins;5p upr;up in time
8/16 SAR 5½f T Mahony G3 4th/7 -2½L 86 0.7-1 3p turn;4p1/4;no kick
6/19 ASC 6f T Cmmnwlth Cu G1 10th/22 — 25-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/8	KEE	5½f T	Alw C	Won/7 by 4	94	1.7-1	L	Ins;5p upr;up in time
8/16	SAR	5½f T	Mahony G3	4th/7 -2½L	86	0.7-1		3p turn;4p1/4;no kick
6/19	ASC	6f T	Cmmnwlth Cu G1	10th/22	—	25-1

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (11 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #3 Bacio, won.

1st3BacioWin$6.36Place$5.96Show$4.12Our #1

2nd10Cy FairWin—Place$8.14Show$6.08Our #4

3rdStarlust [gb]Win—Place—Show$12.08Not ranked

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

KEENELAND · RACE 5

OFFICIAL

B.C. Turf Spt Stakes (G1)

Field

18 runners

Purse

$1,000,000

Post

1:48 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#3 · 25%

Stakes, for 3-year-olds and up.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Track record at 5 1/2 Furlongs: 60.86

The shape is the story here: 6 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #3 Bacio (early speed, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 92. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #7 Comanche Brave at 3-1. Use #6 Yellow Card in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · WON

Top pick Bacio won

What worked

✓ Top pick in the money (1st)
✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #1)

What didn't

✗ Our top 3 finished 1st, —, —

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#3 BACIO	1st
#2	#7 COMANCHE BRAVE	—
#3	#6 YELLOW CARD	—
#4	#10 CY FAIR	2nd
#5	#11 JOE SHIESTY	—

Actual finish

1st	#3 Bacio	our #1
2nd	#10 Cy Fair	our #4
3rd	Starlust [GB]	unranked

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #3 BACIO (5-2) — our number agrees.
#3 BACIO — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 22.4%, they've got 18.7%.
#7 COMANCHE BRAVE — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 19.8%, they've got 16.4%.
#6 YELLOW CARD — our #3 number, a price play — we're at 8.8%, the board 7.3%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#3 BACIO — we make it 22.4%, the morning line works out to 18.7%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#7 COMANCHE BRAVE — we make it 19.8%, the morning line works out to 16.4%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Longshot the model rates above its line: #6 YELLOW CARD (8-1) — our fair 8.8% is above the morning line's 7.3%; needs the trip to fall right.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #1 John The Beer Man; pressure from #11 Joe Shiesty, #2 Shisospicy; the shape helps #5 Time To Dazzle, #13 Starlust; and works against #1 John The Beer Man, #2 Shisospicy, #3 Bacio.

Lead

1John The Beer Man10611Joe Shiesty1002Shisospicy974Roja963Bacio15Big Mojo

Press

9In Our Time1016Yellow Card9817Doncho9818Outfielder8810Cy Fair87

Stalk

8Possiblemente10816No Nay Hudson9612Sorrento Sky90

5Time To Dazzle8513Starlust

No style yet

7Comanche Brave14Miss Yechance

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Possiblemente

108

John The Beer Man

106

In Our Time

101

Joe Shiesty

100

Yellow Card

Doncho

Shisospicy

Roja

No Nay Hudson

Sorrento Sky

Outfielder

Cy Fair

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Time To Dazzle

Starlust

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