Pick sheet

Race 212:33 PM Clm 7500b

6F · Dirt · 7 entered. Our model's top pick, Make It Quick, is 59% to win (morning line implies 47%). Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #7 Make It Quick ML 8-5 Fair 3-5 Model #1 Top last-race fig ▲▲ Big jump +19 · career best ↕ Up and down 57–83

Jockey X. Perez · Trainer J. Robb · KEE 7: 1-1-0 · Dist 5: 2-1-1 · best fig at 6f dirt 83 · 29 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	LRL	6f D	Clm 12k n2l	Won/9	83	5.0-1	b L	Loom 5w;drive to late
9/11	LRL	6f D	Clm 12k n2l	2nd/5 -1L	71	1.3-1	b L	Outs bid;vied;gamely
8/28	CNL	5f T	rClm16000n2l	4th/7 -3½L	57	3.6-1	b L	Bump 2x;4wd 1/4;mildly

Case: Last out won in the Clm12500n2l at LRL. Last Brisnet figures 83-71-57. Best at today's distance 83. 2-for-5 at the distance. 1-for-7 at Laurel Park. J. Robb / X. Perez.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #5 Pediatrician ML 6-1 Fair 7-1 Model #2 ▲▲ Big jump +17 ↕ Up and down 48–78 ▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey J. McGuin · Trainer M. Salazar · KEE 4: 2-1-0 · Dist 2: 1-1-0 · best fig at 6f dirt 78 · 27 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	LRL	1m D	OC 12k	7th/7 -6L	76	16-1	L	Pace; headed; faded
9/12	LRL	6f D	Clm 7k n2l	Won/5	78	3.3-1	L	3-deep 1/2;ridden out
8/8	CNL	5½f T	Clm 16k n2l	10th/10 -8½L	48	29-1	L	Prssd 2w-ins;faded

Case: Last out 7th/7 -6L in the OC12500 at LRL. Last Brisnet figures 76-78-48. Best at today's distance 78. 1-for-2 at the distance. 2-for-4 at Laurel Park. M. Salazar / J. McGuin.

Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Use #4 Beltane ML 6-1 Fair 8-1 Model #3 ▲ Up +3 ≡ Steady 67–71 Last out 2nd in the Clm7500b at LRL. Last Brisnet figures 71-69-68. Best at today's distance 71. 0-for-1 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Laurel Park. A. Aguirre Jr. / J. Barbosa. Knock: 0-for-1 at the distance. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey J. Barbosa · Trainer A. Aguirre Jr. · KEE 1: 0-1-0 · Dist 1: 0-1-0 · best fig at 6f dirt 71 · 41 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/20	LRL	6f D	Clm 7k b	2nd/6 -2½L	71	4.7-1	b L	Pace 2p;no match
9/6	TIM	-6½f D	Clm 5k b	2nd/8	69	2.7-1	b L	Bump 3/8;duel;sharp
8/9	CNL	5½f T	Clm 16k b	7th/10 -8½L	68	10-1	b L	2-3w;8-9w1/4;lost crop

Longshot #1 Party on Rufus ML 15-1 Fair 12-1 Model #4 ▼ Down -7 ▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 84 ▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises Blinkers on

Jockey P. Luna · Trainer J. Rodriguez · Dist 13: 2-2-3 · best fig at 6f dirt 75 · 24 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/7	DEL	6f D	Clm 8k b	4th/7 -3L	65	3.6-1	L	Vied outside; weakened
9/19	DEL	6f D	OC 25k	3rd/3 -3L	75	7.2-1	L	4-w; empty late
9/3	DEL	6f D	Clm 7k n2lc	Won/6	69	1.7-1	L	Drew off; mild urging

Case: Last out 4th/7 -3L in the Clm8000b at DEL. Last Brisnet figures 65-75-69. Best at today's distance 75. 2-for-13 at the distance. J. Rodriguez / P. Luna.

Knock: Never raced at Laurel Park.

Narrowing the field: A #3, #5, #7 · B #1, #2, #4 · C #6

Angles: #1 Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 84 · #1 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises · #5 Lone speed on early pace

R2 Laurel Park · Claiming $7,500

12:33 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $18,000 · 6 runners (1 out)12:33 PM · 6f Dirt · 6 runners (1 out)

Official $18K · Claiming $7,500

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Party on Rufus▼▼LSRan 3rdP. Luna · J. RodriguezLuna · RodriguezB65 75 69▼-7@trip 7515-1Fair 12-18%▼ Down -765 75 69@trip 75B▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 84▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesLS
Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -7 · Best fig at today's trip 75 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 65 75 69
▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 84▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesLS
Longshot read: 15-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 8% against a line of 5%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Paul A Luna 34% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jose S Rodriguez 33% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R10: Bagley Cut 20-1
CLASS DROP
Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 75 against a 84 par. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 6)
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 171 days ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/7 DEL 6f D Clm 8k b 4th/7 -3L 65 3.6-1 L Vied outside; weakened
9/19 DEL 6f D OC 25k 3rd/3 -3L 75 7.2-1 L 4-w; empty late
9/3 DEL 6f D Clm 7k n2lc Won/6 69 1.7-1 L Drew off; mild urging

2English DaddyRan 5thR. Mena · A. HallMena · HallB71 67 48▲▲+12↕@trip 7920-1Fair 20-15%▲▲ Big jump +1271 67 48 ↕@trip 79B

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 48–71 · Best fig at today's trip 79 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 67 48

Jockey Raul E Mena 27% career 3-for-17 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Aimee D Hall 30% career

Also today · Jockey R5: Instparty 30-1, R8: Moon Cache 8-1, R9: Contribution 5-1

60D LAYOFFJky 16/82 from post 2

Freshened 155 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look. Class relief: $12,500 claiming last time, $7,500 claiming today.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 9d ago

RECORD Not on the board in 3 starts here

RECORD Raul E Mena from post 2 here: 16 wins, 41 top-3 in 82 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
5/29	LRL	6f D	Clm 12k n3l	6th/7 -1¾L	71	11-1	b L	Spd ins;drift 3wd;wkn
5/3	LRL	6f D	Clm 12k n3l	5th/6 -3L	67	15-1	b L	Bmp st;vied;clr;driftd
1/23	LRL	5½f D	Clm 12k n3l	8th/8 -11L	48	15-1	b L	Brk out;stumbled;chck

3Fayes HeartC. Hargrove · J. RobbHargrove · RobbA83 73 60▲▲+15↕@trip 836-5<1%▲▲ Big jump +15 · career best83 73 60 ↕@trip 83A

Card model <1% · Our #7 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +15 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 60–83 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 83 73 60

Jockey Camila Hargrove 14% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer John J Robb 34% career 4-for-22 on dirt this meet (18%)

Also today · Jockey R4: Woman Enticed 20-1 · Trainer this race: Make It Quick 8-5

Was running in $15,000 claiming; today's $7,500 claiming is an easier level on paper. Beaten 2½ lengths for 2nd in a 7-horse $15,000 claiming race at LRL.

EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Aug 1; 1 work in 30d

RECORD 2 wins, 3 on the board from 8 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	LRL	6f D	Clm 12k b	2nd/7 -2½L	83	4.0-1	b L	Trk3p;bid3/8;hld clr2d
9/26	LRL	6f D	Clm 12k b	4th/9 -5L	73	5.3-1	b L	Btw;shifted out;empty
9/7	TIM	-6½f D	sAlw43120n1x	3rd/5 -7L	60	2.5-1	b L	4wd;drop ins 3/8;mild

4BeltaneRan 2ndJ. Barbosa · A. Aguirre Jr.Barbosa · Aguirre Jr.B71 69 68▲+3≡@trip 716-1Fair 8-111%▲ Up +371 69 68 ≡@trip 71B3

Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +3 · ≡ Steady figures 67–71 · Best fig at today's trip 71 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 69 68

Jockey Jeiron Barbosa 30% career 4-for-38 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Anthony Jr Aguirre 22% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Molly The Great 12-1, R3: Cybertime 10-1, R3: All The Hardways 15-1, R4: It's Fine 3-1 +4 more

4/5 board here

2nd last time, 2½ lengths back, in a field of 6. A 71 is the high figure lately, short of the 84 par.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 13d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 4 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD Jeiron Barbosa from post 4 here: 20 wins, 54 top-3 in 138 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/20	LRL	6f D	Clm 7k b	2nd/6 -2½L	71	4.7-1	b L	Pace 2p;no match
9/6	TIM	-6½f D	Clm 5k b	2nd/8	69	2.7-1	b L	Bump 3/8;duel;sharp
8/9	CNL	5½f T	Clm 16k b	7th/10 -8½L	68	10-1	b L	2-3w;8-9w1/4;lost crop

5Pediatrician▲Ran 6thJ. McGuin · M. SalazarMcGuin · SalazarA76 78 48▲▲+17↕@trip 786-1Fair 7-113%▲▲ Big jump +1776 78 48 ↕@trip 78A▲ Lone speed on early pace2

Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +17 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 48–78 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 78 48

▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey Jasmine McGuin 0-for-4 on dirt this meet · Trainer Marco Salazar 21% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R10: Clockbuster 30-1 · Trainer R4: Whiskey Brew 30-1

2/3 board here

Shortens up to 6 furlongs after going a mile. Worked 3F in :37.00 on May 27, 2nd of 7 at the distance.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 7)

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 62d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	LRL	1m D	OC 12k	7th/7 -6L	76	16-1	L	Pace; headed; faded
9/12	LRL	6f D	Clm 7k n2l	Won/5	78	3.3-1	L	3-deep 1/2;ridden out
8/8	CNL	5½f T	Clm 16k n2l	10th/10 -8½L	48	29-1	L	Prssd 2w-ins;faded

6Tyson's DeliveryRan 4thW. Ebow · S. PradenasEbow · PradenasC55 52 82▼▼-9↕@trip 6030-1Fair 20-14%▼▼ Big drop -955 52 82 ↕@trip 60C

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 52–82 · Best fig at today's trip 60 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 55 52 82

Jockey Warren Iii Ebow 0-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Sergio H Pradenas 18% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet

★ FASTEST WORK

Back to 6 furlongs off a a mile race. Picks up 4 pounds from its last start.

EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Sep 19; 0 works in 30d

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 7 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	LRL	1m D	Clm 16k b	6th/7 -8½L	55	29-1	b L	Stalked; dropped back
9/27	LRL	1m D	Clm 16k b	4th/5 -10L	52	9.7-1	b L	Rail; gave way;
8/20	CNL	1m T	Clm 16k b	9th/12 -1½L	82	58-1	b L	Bump brk;3-4w;faded 6w

7Make It QuickRan 1stX. Perez · J. RobbPerez · RobbA83 71 57▲▲+19↕@trip 838-5Fair 3-559%▲▲ Big jump +19 · career best83 71 57 ↕@trip 83A1

Card model 59% · Fair odds 3-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +19 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 57–83 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 83 71 57

Jockey Xavier Perez 32% career 3-for-14 on dirt this meet (21%) · Trainer John J Robb 34% career 4-for-22 on dirt this meet (18%)

Also today · Trainer this race: Fayes Heart 6-5

WON LAST

Has moved up each time out, 57 to 71 to 83. Has won 2 of 5 going today's distance.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Loom 5w; drive to late), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 70d back)

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 8 starts here

RECORD Xavier Perez from post 7 here: 9 wins, 36 top-3 in 90 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	LRL	6f D	Clm 12k n2l	Won/9	83	5.0-1	b L	Loom 5w;drive to late
9/11	LRL	6f D	Clm 12k n2l	2nd/5 -1L	71	1.3-1	b L	Outs bid;vied;gamely
8/28	CNL	5f T	rClm16000n2l	4th/7 -3½L	57	3.6-1	b L	Bump 2x;4wd 1/4;mildly

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #7 Make It Quick, won.

1st7Make It QuickWin$3.00Place$2.10Show$2.10Our #1

2nd4BeltaneWin—Place$2.80Show$2.40Our #3

3rd1Party On RufusWin—Place—Show$3.00Our #4

4th6Tyson's DeliveryOur #6

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

LAUREL PARK · RACE 2

OFFICIAL

Claiming $7,500

Field

7 runners

Purse

$18,000

Post

12:33 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#7 · 59%

Claiming $7,500, for 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.95

The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #7 Make It Quick (a presser/stalker, M/L 8-5). Recent figures: 83 · 71 · 57. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #5 Pediatrician at 6-1. Use #4 Beltane in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · WON

Top pick Make It Quick won

What worked

✓ Top pick in the money (1st)
✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #1)
✓ Our top 3 finished 1st, 6th, 2nd

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#7 MAKE IT QUICK	1st
#2	#5 PEDIATRICIAN	6th
#3	#4 BELTANE	2nd
#4	#1 PARTY ON RUFUS	3rd
#5	#2 ENGLISH DADDY	5th

Actual finish

1st	#7 Make It Quick	our #1
2nd	#4 Beltane	our #3
3rd	#1 Party On Rufus	our #4
4th	#6 Tyson's Delivery	our #6
5th	#2 English Daddy	our #5

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #3 FAYES HEART (6-5) — our number has it ranked #7.
#7 MAKE IT QUICK — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 49.5%, they've got 30.4%.
#5 PEDIATRICIAN — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 16.3%, they've got 11.3%.
#4 BELTANE — our #3 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 15.5%, they've got 11.3%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#7 MAKE IT QUICK — we make it 49.5%, the morning line works out to 30.4%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#5 PEDIATRICIAN — we make it 16.3%, the morning line works out to 11.3%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#4 BELTANE — we make it 15.5%, the morning line works out to 11.3%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Longshot the model rates above its line: #1 PARTY ON RUFUS (15-1) — our fair 8.1% is above the morning line's 4.9%; supported by: top barn (33%) + jockey (34%) at 15-1 (a hot trainer-jockey pairing; on our own re-test it did not beat its odds)

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #2 English Daddy; pressure from #1 Party On Rufus, #5 Pediatrician; and works against #1 Party On Rufus, #2 English Daddy, #5 Pediatrician.

Lead

2English Daddy961Party On Rufus915Pediatrician91

Press

4Beltane937Make It Quick933Fayes Heart88

Stalk

6Tyson's Delivery87

none

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

English Daddy

Beltane

Make It Quick

Party On Rufus

Pediatrician

Fayes Heart

Tyson's Delivery

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Pediatrician

Tyson's Delivery

Fayes Heart

Party On Rufus

Beltane

Make It Quick

English Daddy

Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

EXACTA & TRIFECTA / DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 2-3) / 10 CENT SUPERFECTA

50 CENT PICK 3 (RACES 2-3-4) / 50 CENT PICK 4 (RACES 2-3-4-5)

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

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