Pick sheet

Race 94:30 PM Alw 49000n1x

1 Mi · Turf · 16 entered. Our model's top pick, Patrol Squad Six, is 26% to win (morning line implies 28%). Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #11 Patrol Squad Six ML 5-2 Fair 3-1 Model #1 ► Steady ≡ Steady 83–89 ▲ Last fig 83 at/above par 82

Jockey J. Batista · Trainer M. Stidham · Dist 3: 1-2-0 · best fig at 1m turf 83 · 77 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/15	ELP	1 1/16 T	Alw n1x	7th/8 -1L	83	2.9-1	L	Ins;no bid;lack rm lat
7/24	ELP	1 1/16 T	Alw n2l	3rd/8 -2¾L	83	2.7-1	L	Chk erly;ins;rally btw
7/4	ELP	1 1/16 T	OC 75k n1x	3rd/9 -1L	89	5.8-1	L	Press 2w;6p upr;outkck

Case: Last out 7th/8 -1L in the Alw102000n1x at ELP. Last Brisnet figures 83-83-89. Best at today's distance 83. 1-for-3 at the distance. M. Stidham / J. Batista.

Knock: Off 77 days. Never raced at Laurel Park.

Contender #2 Kalea Bay ML 6-1 Fair 7-2 Model #2 ▲▲ Big jump +18 ↕ Up and down 40–90 ▲ Last fig 89 at/above par 82

Jockey M. Sanchez · Trainer J. Ness · 36 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	LRL	7f D	OC 40k c	Won/6	89	0.7-1	b L	3-2w;outs foe;bmp;drv
8/28	CNL	6f D	Alw n1x	4th/7 -7L	90	2.9-1	b L	Rail; 3wd 1/4; belated
8/6	CNL	6f D	Alw n1x	3rd/8 -1L	84	7.3-1	b L	Stalkd 3w;need kick

Case: Last out won in the OC40000c at LRL. Last Brisnet figures 89-90-84. J. Ness / M. Sanchez.

Knock: Never raced at Laurel Park.

Use #4 Se Thar Barr ML 5-1 Fair 5-1 Model #3 ► Steady ≡ Steady 80–86 ▲ Last fig 82 at/above par 82 Last out 4th/11 -3L in the Alw54755n1x at LRL. Last Brisnet figures 82-86-80. Best at today's distance 82. 1-for-4 at the distance. 0-for-6 at Laurel Park. S. Cooney / F. Boyce. Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Jockey F. Boyce · Trainer S. Cooney · KEE 6: 0-1-1 · Dist 4: 1-1-1 · best fig at 1m turf 82 · 35 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	LRL	1 1/16 T	Alw n1x	4th/11 -3L	82	3.5-1	b L	4wd 3/16;flattened out
9/5	CNL	1 1/16 T	rHandicap	2nd/10 -4½L	86	15-1	b L	3w;no match;held 2nd
8/13	CNL	1m T	Alw n1x	3rd/10 -5½L	80	7.1-1	b L	Ins-2p;bmp foe1/8;gain

Longshot #6 Celtic Flame ML 10-1 Fair 8-1 Model #4 ► Steady

Jockey H. Karamanos · Trainer J. Duarte Jr. · 140 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
6/13	DEL	1 1/16 T	OC 75k n1x	6th/10 -7½L	76	3.6-1	b L	3-2p;ins 1/8;no rally
5/9	BAQ	1 1/16 T	OC 100k n1x	3rd/6 -2½L	81	14-1	b L	7-8w upper; improved
3/21	TP	1m D	MSW	Won/9 by ½	82	3.9-1	b L	2-3w;bid 4w;up1/8;held

Case: Last out 6th/10 -7½L in the OC75000n1x at DEL. Last Brisnet figures 76-81-82. Best at today's distance 82. J. Duarte Jr. / H. Karamanos.

Knock: Off 140 days. Never raced at Laurel Park.

★ Distance horse: #13 Mongolian Apple (6-1) has the best figure in the field at 1m turf: 85 from 5 tries, record at the distance 15: 3-4-1. Not one of our picks.

Narrowing the field: A #2, #9, #11 · B #1, #4, #14 · C #3, #5, #6, #7, #8, #10, #12, #13, #15, #16

Angles: #1 Last fig 90 at/above par 82 · #2 Last fig 89 at/above par 82 · #4 Last fig 82 at/above par 82 · #11 Last fig 83 at/above par 82 · #12 Last fig 87 at/above par 82 · #13 Last fig 82 at/above par 82 · #14 Last fig 84 at/above par 82 · #16 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

R9 Laurel Park · Allowance · $49,000 purse

4:30 PM ET · 1 Mile Turf · $49,000 · 16 runners4:30 PM · 1m Turf · 16 runners

Upcoming $49K · Allowance · $49,000 purse

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #13 Mongolian Apple (6-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 85 from 5 tries. Not in our top three.

1Forrest City▲T. Lyapustina · L. GaudetLyapustina · GaudetB90 85 89▲+3≡8-1<1%▲ Up +3 · career best90 85 89 ≡B▲ Last fig 90 at/above par 82

Card model <1% · Our #14 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +3 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 85–90 · Last 3 figs 90 85 89

▲ Last fig 90 at/above par 82

Jockey Tais Lyapustina 28% career 0-for-6 on turf this meet · Trainer Lacey Gaudet 30% career 0-for-10 on turf this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R4: Daring Delight 10-1, R6: Foolish Lover 6-1 · Trainer R3: Bushido 9-5

Jky 11/69 from post 1

Switches from dirt to turf. Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 90, with 89 next best.

PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 8)

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 21d back)

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 7 starts here

RECORD Tais Lyapustina from post 1 here: 11 wins, 35 top-3 in 69 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	LRL	1 1/16 D	Alw n1x	2nd/6	90	9.7-1	b	Cmd1/2;led str;yielded
9/26	LRL	1m D	Alw n1x	2nd/7	85	4.0-1	b	Inside;dueled;game
8/22	CNL	1 1/16 D	Handicap	3rd/9 -½L	89	8.5-1	b	Duel 2p;yielded late

2Kalea Bay▲M. Sanchez · J. NessSanchez · NessA89 90 84▲▲+18↕6-1Fair 7-222%▲▲ Big jump +1889 90 84 ↕A▲ Last fig 89 at/above par 822

Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +18 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 40–90 · Last 3 figs 89 90 84

▲ Last fig 89 at/above par 82

Jockey Mychel J Sanchez 37% career 8-for-51 on turf this meet (16%) · Trainer Jamie Ness 41% career ★ 7-for-30 on turf this meet (23%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Cross Of Valor 10-1, R1: Mischievous Twins 9-5, R3: Apollo Ten 5-2, R4: Hurricane Lynn 2-1 +2 more · Trainer R1: Mischievous Twins 9-5, R3: Jungle Glow 7-2, R8: Law School 2-1, R10: Uniqueness 6-5 +1 more

★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

Won last out in a 6-horse optional claiming race at LRL. New trainer: Brittany T Russell had it last time, Jamie Ness now.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Aug 21 (5F in 1:00.00), 1 work in 30d

RECORD Mychel J Sanchez from post 2 here: 15 wins, 51 top-3 in 112 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	LRL	7f D	OC 40k c	Won/6	89	0.7-1	b L	3-2w;outs foe;bmp;drv
8/28	CNL	6f D	Alw n1x	4th/7 -7L	90	2.9-1	b L	Rail; 3wd 1/4; belated
8/6	CNL	6f D	Alw n1x	3rd/8 -1L	84	7.3-1	b L	Stalkd 3w;need kick

3PendarK. Gomez · M. MeyersGomez · MeyersC74 80 79▼-6≡@trip 8015-1Fair 15-16%▼ Down -674 80 79 ≡@trip 80C

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -6 · ≡ Steady figures 74–80 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 80 79

Jockey Kevin Gomez 30% career 2-for-17 on turf this meet (12%) · Trainer Madison F Meyers 33% career 1-for-9 on turf this meet (11%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Blushing Princess 12-1, R4: For Keeps 12-1, R6: Bourbonontheporch 30-1 · Trainer R1: Blushing Princess 12-1

★ FASTEST WORKJky 7/48 from post 3

Fastest 4F work of its morning on Oct 24 (:48.80), a sign it is training forwardly. Last out was 8th, 8¼ lengths behind the winner, in an 11-horse allowance race at LRL.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP 4f in :48.80 on Oct 24 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD Kevin Gomez from post 3 here: 7 wins, 21 top-3 in 48 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	LRL	1 1/16 T	Alw n1x	8th/11 -8¼L	74	11-1	b L	3-4wd turns;gave way
8/27	CNL	1 1/16 T	Alw n2l	4th/8 -3L	80	9.2-1	b L	Stalk 2w-ins;flatnd
7/9	CNL	1m T	rAlw90300n1x	4th/8 -5½L	79	5.9-1	b L	3p far;4w uppr;improvd

4Se Thar Barr▲F. Boyce · S. CooneyBoyce · CooneyB82 86 80►≡@trip 825-1Fair 5-116%► Steady82 86 80 ≡@trip 82B▲ Last fig 82 at/above par 823

Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 80–86 · Best fig at today's trip 82 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 86 80

▲ Last fig 82 at/above par 82

Jockey Forest Boyce 32% career 5-for-35 on turf this meet (14%) · Trainer Susan S Cooney 22% career 0-for-15 on turf this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Awesome McKinzie 8-1, R3: Bushido 9-5, R5: Worries Unfounded 10-1, R6: Jerry Inspires 20-1 +2 more

An 86 top number against a 82 par, so it fits the level. Beaten 3 lengths for 4th in an 11-horse allowance race at LRL.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 7d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 6 starts here

RECORD Forest Boyce from post 4 here: 14 wins, 43 top-3 in 91 rides · 15% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	LRL	1 1/16 T	Alw n1x	4th/11 -3L	82	3.5-1	b L	4wd 3/16;flattened out
9/5	CNL	1 1/16 T	rHandicap	2nd/10 -4½L	86	15-1	b L	3w;no match;held 2nd
8/13	CNL	1m T	Alw n1x	3rd/10 -5½L	80	7.1-1	b L	Ins-2p;bmp foe1/8;gain

5ContributionR. Mena · K. NeilsonMena · NeilsonC78 83 80►≡@trip 785-1<1%► Steady78 83 80 ≡@trip 78C

Card model <1% · Our #12 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 78–83 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 83 80

Jockey Raul E Mena 27% career 0-for-6 on turf this meet · Trainer Kathy Neilson 22% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: English Daddy 20-1, R5: Instparty 30-1, R8: Moon Cache 8-1 · Trainer this race: Orator 20-1

180D+ LAYOFF

Back after 233 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field. Changes barns, from Brad H Cox to Kathy Neilson.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 19d ago

RECORD Raul E Mena from post 5 here: 9 wins, 37 top-3 in 82 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
3/12	FG	1 1/16 D	Alw n1x	6th/7 -5½L	78	3.5-1	L	Ins;2-3w;weakened
2/12	FG	1 1/16 T	Alw n1x	3rd/10 -3¾L	83	1.8-1	L	Bmpd1/4; bmp1/8; rally
1/22	FG	1 1/16 D	Alw n1x	4th/5 -4½L	80	2.9-1	L	Track ins; outs; empty

6Celtic FlameLSH. Karamanos · J. Duarte Jr.Karamanos · Duarte Jr.C76 81 82►10-1Fair 8-110%► Steady76 81 82CLS

Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 76 81 82

Longshot read: 10-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 10% against a line of 5%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey H A Karamanos 32% career 5-for-42 on turf this meet (12%) · Trainer Jorge Jr Duarte 25% career 1-for-5 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Honor Thy Cookie 15-1, R3: Don't Wait Up 12-1, R5: Wonder Girl 1-1, R6: Side Hug 6-1 +1 more

60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK

Drops from optional claiming to allowance. Trending the wrong way on speed, 82 to 81 to 76.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 3; 3 works in 30d

RECORD H A Karamanos from post 6 here: 8 wins, 32 top-3 in 78 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
6/13	DEL	1 1/16 T	OC 75k n1x	6th/10 -7½L	76	3.6-1	b L	3-2p;ins 1/8;no rally
5/9	BAQ	1 1/16 T	OC 100k n1x	3rd/6 -2½L	81	14-1	b L	7-8w upper; improved
3/21	TP	1m D	MSW	Won/9 by ½	82	3.9-1	b L	2-3w;bid 4w;up1/8;held

7OratorJ. Vargas · K. NeilsonVargas · NeilsonC59 84 84▼▼-23↕@trip 7120-1Fair 20-15%▼▼ Big drop -2359 84 84 ↕@trip 71C
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -23 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 59–84 · Best fig at today's trip 71 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 59 84 84
Jockey Jose E Vargas 29% career 3-for-27 on turf this meet (11%) · Trainer Kathy Neilson 22% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet
Also today · Jockey R6: Emperor Ming 10-1, R7: Verdant Tones 20-1, R8: Kiss Me Mo 5-2 · Trainer this race: Contribution 5-1
2/3 board here
Raises its level, allowance last time and allowance now. Dropped in well back early last out, 5th of 6 at the first call.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 103d ago
RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 3 starts here
RECORD Jose E Vargas from post 7 here: 7 wins, 21 top-3 in 36 rides · 17% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/10 MED 1m T Alw n1x 6th/6 -9L 59 3.2-1 b L 2w; faded
9/26 LRL 1 1/16 T Alw n1x 2nd/11 by hd 84 14-1 b L Stretch duel; hung
8/28 CNL 1⅛m T Alw s 2nd/9 84 16-1 b L Rail; led 3/8 to late

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	MED	1m T	Alw n1x	6th/6 -9L	59	3.2-1	b L	2w; faded
9/26	LRL	1 1/16 T	Alw n1x	2nd/11 by hd	84	14-1	b L	Stretch duel; hung
8/28	CNL	1⅛m T	Alw s	2nd/9	84	16-1	b L	Rail; led 3/8 to late

8Start TappinJ. Toledo · M. VeraToledo · VeraC78 73 80▲+615-1Fair 15-16%▲ Up +678 73 80C

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +6 · Last 3 figs 78 73 80

Jockey Jevian Toledo 33% career 1-for-36 on turf this meet (3%) · Trainer Miguel Vera 20% career 1-for-7 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R5: Sugar Bee 7-2, R6: Midnight Mosey 10-1, R7: Devastating 4-1, R8: Diamond N Dress 5-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Stretches out from 5½ furlongs to a mile. Worked 4F in :49.00 on Oct 22, 2nd of 29 at the distance.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 16 (3F in :35.40), 1 work in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 4 starts here

RECORD Jevian Toledo from post 8 here: 17 wins, 49 top-3 in 117 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	LRL	5½f T	rAlw51040n1x	7th/9 -7½L	78	4.1-1	b L	Wide; no factor
9/27	LRL	5½f D	Alw n1x	6th/7 -10L	73	3.6-1	b L	Chased between foes
8/20	CNL	5½f T	Clm 50k n2l	Won/8 by 2	80	7.2-1	b L	Sustained 4wd move

9Surgical PrecisionS. Russell · B. RussellRussell · RussellA74 90 85▼▼-149-2<1%▼▼ Big drop -1474 90 85A

Card model <1% · Our #11 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -14 · Last 3 figs 74 90 85

Jockey Sheldon Russell 39% career ★ 7-for-20 on turf this meet (35%), #1 of 31 · Trainer Brittany T Russell 43% career ★ 11-for-29 on turf this meet (38%), #1 of 29 ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R7: Sleepwalker 7-2, this race: Daring Venture 8-1 · Trainer R7: Sleepwalker 7-2, this race: Daring Venture 8-1, R10: Igaming 3-1

60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK

170 days since the last start, so it needs the works to say it's ready. Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS SHARP 4f in :48.40 on Oct 8 was the best time at that distance that morning; 3 works in 30d

RECORD Sheldon Russell from post 9 here: 13 wins, 33 top-3 in 49 rides · 23% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
5/14	LRL	6f D	Alw n1x	5th/6 -3½L	74	2.5-1	L	Off slw;ins;duel;wknd
3/13	CNL	7f D	Alw n1x	2nd/5 -2L	90	3.4-1	L	Tight brk;insd;2nd bst
2/23	LRL	6f D	MSW	Won/7 by nk	85	0.6-1	L	Off duel;4w upper;drvg

10Daring VentureS. Russell · B. RussellRussell · RussellC73 68 82▼-38-1<1%▼ Down -373 68 82C

Card model <1% · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -3 · Last 3 figs 73 68 82

Jockey Sheldon Russell 39% career ★ 7-for-20 on turf this meet (35%), #1 of 31 · Trainer Brittany T Russell 43% career ★ 11-for-29 on turf this meet (38%), #1 of 29 ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R7: Sleepwalker 7-2, this race: Surgical Precision 9-2 · Trainer R7: Sleepwalker 7-2, this race: Surgical Precision 9-2, R10: Igaming 3-1

★ FASTEST WORK5/6 board here

Goes a mile after running 5½ furlongs last time. Was 7th of 7 at the first call last time.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

TROUBLED TRIP Angled 5w; near evn; gme last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 8 (3F in :37.20), 2 works in 30d

RECORD 2 wins, 5 on the board from 6 starts here

RECORD Sheldon Russell from post 10 here: 9 wins, 14 top-3 in 26 rides · 23% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/11	LRL	5½f T	OC 35k	2nd/7 -1½L	73	2.5-1	b L	Angled 5w;near evn;gme
7/30	CNL	5½f T	Alw n1x	7th/8 -6¾L	68	4.4-1	L	Ins;2w upper;no rally
6/13	LRL	5½f T	rAlw50040n1x	Won/8 by 1	82	5.2-1	L	Thru ins;led 1/16;drv

11Patrol Squad Six▲J. Batista · M. StidhamBatista · StidhamA83 83 89►≡@trip 835-2Fair 3-126%► Steady83 83 89 ≡@trip 83A▲ Last fig 83 at/above par 821

Card model 26% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 83–89 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 83 83 89

▲ Last fig 83 at/above par 82

Jockey Jose A Batista 31% career 1-for-6 on turf this meet · Trainer Michael Stidham 36% career 0-for-6 on turf this meet

60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK

Michael Stidham takes over the training from Dale Romans. Was running in allowance; today's allowance is an easier level on paper.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 20 (5F in 1:02.00), 2 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/15	ELP	1 1/16 T	Alw n1x	7th/8 -1L	83	2.9-1	L	Ins;no bid;lack rm lat
7/24	ELP	1 1/16 T	Alw n2l	3rd/8 -2¾L	83	2.7-1	L	Chk erly;ins;rally btw
7/4	ELP	1 1/16 T	OC 75k n1x	3rd/9 -1L	89	5.8-1	L	Press 2w;6p upr;outkck

12Armed N Dangerous▲L. Briceno · A. AllenBriceno · AllenC87 40 51▲▲+32↕10-1<1%▲▲ Big jump +3287 40 51 ↕C▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 82

Card model <1% · Our #15 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +32 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 40–87 · Last 3 figs 87 40 51

▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 82

Jockey Leandro M Briceno 28% career 3-for-29 on turf this meet (10%) · Trainer A Ferris Iii Allen 25% career 3-for-19 on turf this meet (16%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Band On The Run 20-1, R4: Dreams To Sell 9-2, R5: Preparefortakeoff 6-1, R6: Sunday Legacy 30-1 +1 more · Trainer R1: Cross Of Valor 10-1, R3: All The Hardways 15-1, R3: Don't Wait Up 12-1, R5: Instparty 30-1 +3 more

WON LAST4/5 board here

Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here. Comes in off a victory in a 7-horse $16,000 claiming race at LRL.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 18d back)

RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 5 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	LRL	1m D	Clm 16k b	Won/7 by hd	87	2.5-1	b L	Rallied 4wd; clear
8/6	PEN	1 1/16 D	Alw n1x	6th/6 -23L	40	4.8-1	b L	Pinched back start
6/13	LRL	1 1/16 T	Clm 30k bc	8th/8 -23L	51	22-1	b L	Stumbl;falter;eased

13Mongolian Apple▲★C. Lopez · R. RichardsLopez · RichardsC82 68 65▲▲+9↕@trip 856-1Fair 15-16%▲▲ Big jump +982 68 65 ↕@trip 85C▲ Last fig 82 at/above par 82★ Best at the trip 85

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 65–85 · Best fig at today's trip 85 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 68 65

▲ Last fig 82 at/above par 82★ Best at the trip 85

Jockey Carlos Eduardo Lopez 36% career 2-for-35 on turf this meet (6%) · Trainer Renaldo Richards 25% career 0-for-3 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R5: Little Crybaby 30-1, R6: Konrad's Corner 8-1, R10: Igaming 3-1 · Trainer R1: Molly The Great 12-1

★ FASTEST WORK2/3 board here

Figures are climbing: 65, 68, 82 over its last three. 3rd of 31 at 4F on Oct 3, in :48.60.

PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 8)

WORKS SHARP 4f in :48.00 on Oct 25 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	LRL	1m T	ROC 1-65	2nd/10	82	6.8-1	L	Rail; grudgingly
8/22	CNL	1 1/16 T	Handicap	9th/10 -10L	68	35-1	L	Hustld;quick pace;stop
7/18	MTH	1m D	OC 20k n1x	4th/5 -9L	65	6.0-1	L	Stalked 2w; tired

14Blown Cover▲R. Gutierrez · R. RodriguezGutierrez · RodriguezB84 74 78▲+5@trip 846-1<1%▲ Up +584 74 78@trip 84B▲ Last fig 84 at/above par 82

Card model <1% · Our #13 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +5 · Best fig at today's trip 84 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 84 74 78

▲ Last fig 84 at/above par 82

Jockey Reylu Gutierrez 32% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet · Trainer Rudy R Rodriguez 33% career 1-for-2 on turf this meet

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK

A big drop, allowance to allowance, and worth asking why. Posted the fastest 4F work of the morning on Oct 4, in :48.20.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (5w upper; improved), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP 4f in :48.20 on Oct 4 was the best time at that distance that morning; 3 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	BEL	1 1/16 T	Alw s	4th/7 -3½L	84	39-1	L	5w upper; improved
9/19	MED	1m T	Alw n1x	2nd/6 -2½L	74	4.9-1	L	Willingly; denied
9/5	SAR	1 1/16 T	Alw n1x	6th/6 -5¼L	78	16-1	L	Dueled ins early; wknd

15Power WrenchJ. Rocco Jr. · R. WernethRocco Jr. · WernethC57 51 68▼▼-9↕@trip 8030-1Fair 99-1<1%▼▼ Big drop -957 51 68 ↕@trip 80C

Card model <1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 51–80 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 57 51 68

Jockey J S Jr Rocco 2-for-20 on turf this meet (10%) · Trainer Robert A Werneth 20% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Whimmoffortune 10-1, R3: Where's Ray 6-1, R4: Morganite Rose 30-1 · Trainer R4: Morganite Rose 30-1

Changes barns, from Steven Dye to Robert A Werneth. Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 63d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	DEL	1 1/16 D	OC 16k	6th/7 -9L	57	23-1	b L	Brk out;pace off rail
10/9	DEL	1m D	OC 16k	7th/7 -15L	51	24-1	b L	Never fired
9/19	DEL	1 1/16 T	OC 20k	6th/9 -10L	68	89-1	b L	Angled out; never fire

16Catatumbo▼J. Betancourt · A. MartinBetancourt · MartinC69 81 70▼-7@trip 7230-1<1%▼ Down -769 81 70@trip 72C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model <1% · Our #16 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -7 · Best fig at today's trip 72 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 69 81 70

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey Jose R Betancourt 19% career · Trainer August R Martin 28% career

Gets a new rider, Jose R Betancourt replacing V Rodriguez. Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here.

EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 273 days ago

RECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 7 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/8	CT	1 1/16 D	OC 15k n1x	4th/5 -8L	69	11-1	b L	Off pace3w;empty str
9/5	DEL	1 1/16 D	Alw n1x	4th/7 -5½L	81	34-1	b L	Inside bid;closed well
8/14	CT	1 1/16 D	OC 15k n1x	4th/5 -5L	70	9.7-1	b L	Hop st;4w;empty late

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

LAUREL PARK · RACE 9

UPCOMING

Allowance · $49,000 purse

Field

16 runners

Purse

$49,000

Post

4:30 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#11 · 26%

Allowance, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

● Track record at 1 Mile: 93.3

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #11 Patrol Squad Six (a presser/stalker, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 83 · 83 · 89. Backup is #2 Kalea Bay at 6-1. Use #4 Se Thar Barr in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #11 PATROL SQUAD SIX (5-2) — our number agrees.
#11 PATROL SQUAD SIX — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 26.9%, they've got 15.3%.
#4 SE THAR BARR — our #3 number, a price play — we're at 17.4%, the board 8.9%.
#2 KALEA BAY — our #2 number, a price play — we're at 16.2%, the board 7.6%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#11 PATROL SQUAD SIX — we make it 26.9%, the morning line works out to 15.3%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Longshot the model rates above its line: #2 KALEA BAY (6-1) — our fair 16.2% is above the morning line's 7.6%; supported by: top barn (41%) + jockey (37%) at 6-1 (a hot trainer-jockey pairing; on our own re-test it did not beat its odds)

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #13 Mongolian Apple; pressure from #1 Forrest City, #3 Pendar; the shape helps #2 Kalea Bay, #3 Pendar, #7 Orator; and works against #1 Forrest City, #13 Mongolian Apple.

Lead

13Mongolian Apple991Forrest City98

Press

3Pendar9111Patrol Squad Six902Kalea Bay887Orator76

Stalk

9Surgical Precision958Start Tappin9414Blown Cover7912Armed N Dangerous70

4Se Thar Barr865Contribution8415Power Wrench7810Daring Venture766Celtic Flame7516Catatumbo73

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Mongolian Apple

Forrest City

Surgical Precision

Start Tappin

Pendar

Patrol Squad Six

Kalea Bay

Blown Cover

Orator

Armed N Dangerous

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Se Thar Barr

Power Wrench

Daring Venture

Contribution

Catatumbo

Celtic Flame

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