Pick sheet

Race 83:54 PM ROC 1-65

1 Mi · Dirt · 9 entered. Our model's top pick, Law School, is 33% to win (morning line implies 30%). Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #3 Law School ML 2-1 Fair 2-1 Model #1 ► Steady

Jockey M. Chuan · Trainer J. Ness · KEE 7: 1-1-2 · Dist 2: 0-0-1 · best fig at 1m dirt 77 · 29 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	LRL	6f D	OC 40k	3rd/5 -4½L	73	0.9-1	L	4wd bid; late gain
9/17	DEL	6f D	OC 25k	Won/8	85	3.6-1	L	Dueled;clear late;best
8/27	CNL	6f D	OC 50k n2x	8th/8 -15L	66	62-1	L	Fractious behind gate

Case: Last out 3rd in the fOC40000 at LRL. Last Brisnet figures 73-85-66. Best at today's distance 77. 0-for-2 at the distance. 1-for-7 at Laurel Park. J. Ness / M. Chuan.

Knock: 0-for-2 at the distance.

Contender #2 Kiss Me Mo ML 5-2 Fair 5-2 Model #2 Top last-race fig ▲▲ Big jump +11 ↕ Up and down 58–88 ▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey J. Vargas · Trainer K. Hohlbein · KEE 6: 1-2-2 · 34 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	LRL	7f D	MSW	Won/6	84	0.7-1	b L	Circled 5wd;drv clear
7/23	CNL	7f D	MSW	2nd/9 -½L	88	13-1	b L	Ins;bid3w;repelled
6/27	LRL	6f D	MSW	2nd/7 -3½L	72	4.5-1	b L	Ins;willing;save 2nd

Case: Last out won in the fMdSpWt at LRL. Last Brisnet figures 84-88-72. 1-for-6 at Laurel Park. K. Hohlbein / J. Vargas.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 7f).

Use #9 Ineedyoubabe ML 9-2 Fair 5-1 Model #3 ▲ Up +6 Last out 3rd in the fROC 1-65 at LRL. Last Brisnet figures 80-73-69. Best at today's distance 82. 3-for-5 at the distance. 2-for-3 at Laurel Park. A. Farrior / J. Barbosa. Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Jockey J. Barbosa · Trainer A. Farrior · KEE 3: 2-0-1 · Dist 5: 3-0-2 · best fig at 1m dirt 82 · 41 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/20	LRL	1m D	ROC 1-65	3rd/7 -5L	80	9.0-1	b L	Inside;one paced str
8/30	TIM	1m D	OC 12k	Won/6 by 2	73	1.1-1	b L	Rail;eased out upper
8/7	CNL	1 1/16 T	Clm 25k	8th/8 -7¾L	69	23-1	b L	Mild midmove;fade

★ Distance horse: #6 Moon Cache (8-1) has the best figure in the field at 1m dirt: 84 from 5 tries, record at the distance 8: 1-2-0. Not one of our picks.

Narrowing the field: A #2, #6, #9 · B #3, #5, #7 · C #1, #4, #8

Angles: #2 Lone speed on early pace · #4 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

R8 Laurel Park · Ratings Optional Claiming

3:54 PM ET · 1 Mile Dirt · $29,000 · 9 runners3:54 PM · 1m Dirt · 9 runners

Upcoming $29K · Ratings Optional Claiming

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #6 Moon Cache (8-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 84 from 5 tries. Not in our top three.

1Bugged OutM. Rojas · C. DemarioRojas · DemarioC69 73 65►≡@trip 8130-1Fair 50-12%► Steady69 73 65 ≡@trip 81C

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 65–73 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 69 73 65

Jockey Martina Rojas 30% career · Trainer Charles A Demario

Also today · Jockey R3: Dowagiac Chief 30-1, R5: Rock Tune 15-1

60D LAYOFF

Moves up from optional claiming to unknown. Last out was 3rd, 2½ lengths behind the winner, in a 6-horse optional claiming race at TIM.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 2 works in 30d, last 10d back

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD Martina Rojas from post 1 here: 4 wins, 10 top-3 in 37 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/30	TIM	1m D	OC 12k	3rd/6 -2½L	69	6.4-1	b L	Prompted; weakened
8/6	PEN	6f D	RHP 20-40	3rd/5 -5½L	73	6.0-1	b L	Reluctnt ld;4-5w;rally
7/1	PEN	1m T	Clm 10k	5th/7 -8½L	65	13-1	b L	3wd bw;rddn 3/8;empty

2Kiss Me Mo▲J. Vargas · K. HohlbeinVargas · HohlbeinA84 88 72▲▲+11↕5-2Fair 5-227%▲▲ Big jump +1184 88 72 ↕A▲ Lone speed on early pace2
Card model 27% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 58–88 · Last 3 figs 84 88 72
▲ Lone speed on early pace
Jockey Jose E Vargas 29% career ★ 5-for-21 on dirt this meet (24%) · Trainer Kerry Hohlbein 21% career 1-for-2 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R6: Emperor Ming 10-1, R7: Verdant Tones 20-1, R9: Orator 20-1
WON LAST5/7 board here
Tops the field on speed figures, an 88 against 85 for the next best. Winner of a 6-horse maiden special weight race at LRL last time.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Circled 5wd; drv clear), and the figure already reflects it.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 10d back)
RECORD 1 win, 5 on the board from 7 starts here
RECORD Jose E Vargas from post 2 here: 6 wins, 15 top-3 in 43 rides · 17% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/27 LRL 7f D MSW Won/6 84 0.7-1 b L Circled 5wd;drv clear
7/23 CNL 7f D MSW 2nd/9 -½L 88 13-1 b L Ins;bid3w;repelled
6/27 LRL 6f D MSW 2nd/7 -3½L 72 4.5-1 b L Ins;willing;save 2nd
3Law SchoolM. Chuan · J. NessChuan · NessB73 85 66►@trip 772-1Fair 2-133%► Steady73 85 66@trip 77B1
Card model 33% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #1 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 77 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 85 66
Jockey Martin Chuan 37% career 2-for-10 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Jamie Ness 41% career 6-for-36 on dirt this meet (17%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R3: Winston Wolf 20-1, R3: Jungle Glow 7-2, R5: Pageant Princess 12-1, R7: My Ronda 6-1 +2 more · Trainer R1: Mischievous Twins 9-5, R3: Jungle Glow 7-2, R9: Kalea Bay 6-1, R10: Uniqueness 6-5 +1 more
4/7 board here
A longer trip: 6 furlongs last out, a mile today. A big drop, optional claiming to unknown, and worth asking why.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on May 8; 1 work in 30d
RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 7 starts here
RECORD Martin Chuan from post 3 here: 1 win, 16 top-3 in 46 rides · 13% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/2 LRL 6f D OC 40k 3rd/5 -4½L 73 0.9-1 L 4wd bid; late gain
9/17 DEL 6f D OC 25k Won/8 85 3.6-1 L Dueled;clear late;best
8/27 CNL 6f D OC 50k n2x 8th/8 -15L 66 62-1 L Fractious behind gate

4Secret Journey▼F. Boyce · B. KravetsBoyce · KravetsC77 72 55▲▲+10↕@trip 7320-1Fair 30-13%▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best77 72 55 ↕@trip 73C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 55–77 · Best fig at today's trip 73 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 72 55

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey Forest Boyce 32% career 3-for-10 on dirt this meet (30%), #2 of 26 · Trainer Bruce M Kravets 27% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Awesome McKinzie 8-1, R3: Bushido 9-5, R5: Worries Unfounded 10-1, R6: Jerry Inspires 20-1 +2 more · Trainer this race: Braquet 20-1

WON LAST

Has moved up each time out, 55 to 72 to 77. Comes in off a victory in a 6-horse race at PEN.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 32d ago

RECORD Forest Boyce from post 4 here: 14 wins, 43 top-3 in 91 rides · 15% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	PEN	1 1/16 D	RHP 40-55	Won/6 by ½	77	11-1	L	Waited; 6 wide move
9/3	DEL	1m D	OC 50k n3l	4th/5 -12L	72	87-1	L	No threat; outrun
8/13	PEN	1m D	Alw s	4th/5 -12L	55	31-1	L	Outs foe;shift 4w;fade

5The Goddess FactorA. Cruz · T. KeefeCruz · KeefeB74 68 69►@trip 8112-1Fair 15-16%► Steady74 68 69@trip 81B

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 81 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 68 69

Jockey Angel Cruz 33% career 5-for-29 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Timothy L Keefe 24% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Who's Got Cents 8-1, R3: Fierce And Strong 6-1, R4: Love You Love You 10-1, R7: Can't Fool Me 10-1 · Trainer R1: Awesome McKinzie 8-1

60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSJky 28/167 from post 5

Returns from a 133-day break, the biggest in the field. Switches from turf to dirt.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 3 works in 30d, last 8d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 7 starts here

RECORD Angel Cruz from post 5 here: 28 wins, 74 top-3 in 167 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
6/20	LRL	1 1/16 T	Alw s	7th/9 -7¼L	74	32-1	b L	Outrun
6/6	LRL	1m D	OC 40k n2x	4th/5 -11L	68	4.4-1	b L	Stp slw;angl 5w;empty
4/24	LRL	1 1/16 D	OC 40k n2x	4th/7 -3½L	69	3.6-1	b L	4wd move;gave way

6Moon Cache★LSR. Mena · M. GorhamMena · GorhamA73 81 78▼-3@trip 848-1Fair 10-19%▼ Down -373 81 78@trip 84A★ Best at the trip 84LS

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -3 · Best fig at today's trip 84 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 81 78

★ Best at the trip 84LS

Longshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 9% against a line of 9%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Raul E Mena 27% career 3-for-17 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Michael E Gorham 32% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: English Daddy 20-1, R5: Instparty 30-1, R9: Contribution 5-1

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE2/4 board here

Was running in allowance; today's unknown is an easier level on paper. Finished 8th in a 10-horse allowance race at DEL, beaten 4¼ lengths.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Bumped; crowded start), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 21d ago

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 4 starts here

RECORD Raul E Mena from post 6 here: 10 wins, 34 top-3 in 80 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/5	DEL	1m D	Alw n1x	8th/10 -4¼L	73	12-1	b L	Bumped; crowded start
8/8	DEL	1m D	Alw n1x	2nd/5 by hd	81	1.2-1	b L	Brush 1/8;gave way
7/29	DEL	1m D	Alw n1x	4th/6 -2L	78	30-1	b L	Duel between foes

7Diamond N DressJ. Toledo · H. SmithToledo · SmithB71 76 80▼-4@trip 785-1<1%▼ Down -471 76 80@trip 78B

Card model <1% · Our #9 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -4 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 76 80

Jockey Jevian Toledo 33% career ★ 7-for-28 on dirt this meet (25%), #3 of 26 · Trainer Hamilton A Smith 32% career 4-for-14 on dirt this meet (29%), #3 of 23

Also today · Jockey R5: Sugar Bee 7-2, R6: Midnight Mosey 10-1, R7: Devastating 4-1, R9: Start Tappin 15-1

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK4/8 board here

Hamilton A Smith takes over the training from W Thomas McMahon. Figures have slipped: 80, 76, 71 over its last three.

PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 5)

TROUBLED TRIP Early bobble; weakened last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 18 (5F in 1:01.80), 3 works in 30d

RECORD 3 wins, 4 on the board from 8 starts here

RECORD Jevian Toledo from post 7 here: 25 wins, 61 top-3 in 154 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	LRL	1m D	Clm 16k bc	3rd/6 -1½L	71	2.7-1	b L	Early bobble;weakened
8/7	DEL	1 1/16 D	OC 25k	5th/6 -2L	76	7.2-1	b L	Mild rail move;faded
7/19	CNL	1 1/16 T	OC 50k n2x	7th/8 -6¼L	80	98-1	b L	Shuffled ins;no rally

8BraquetD. Cora · B. KravetsCora · KravetsC71 77 75▼-3≡@trip 8220-1Fair 30-13%▼ Down -371 77 75 ≡@trip 82C

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -3 · ≡ Steady figures 70–77 · Best fig at today's trip 82 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 77 75

Jockey D Cora 28% career · Trainer Bruce M Kravets 27% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Trainer this race: Secret Journey 20-1

Goes a mile after running 6 furlongs last time. Dropped in well back early last out, 9th of 9 at the first call.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 245 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/8	PEN	6f D	Alw s	7th/9 -13L	71	11-1	b L	Passed tiring rivals
9/19	DEL	6f D	OC 20k	Won/4 by 2½	77	1.9-1	b L	3-w; up in time
9/2	PEN	6f D	OC 40k b	2nd/6 -5¼L	75	10-1	b L	Late surge;gained2nd

9IneedyoubabeJ. Barbosa · A. FarriorBarbosa · FarriorA80 73 69▲+6@trip 829-2Fair 5-117%▲ Up +680 73 69@trip 82A3

Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +6 · Best fig at today's trip 82 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 73 69

Jockey Jeiron Barbosa 30% career 4-for-38 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Anthony Farrior 41% career 1-for-8 on dirt this meet (12%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Molly The Great 12-1, R2: Beltane 6-1, R3: Cybertime 10-1, R3: All The Hardways 15-1 +4 more · Trainer R3: Cybertime 10-1, R4: It's Fine 3-1

CLASS UP3/3 board here

3 wins from 5 starts at this distance. Figures are climbing: 69, 73, 80 over its last three.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 6d back

RECORD On the board in all 3 starts here (2 wins)

RECORD Jeiron Barbosa from post 9 here: 4 wins, 22 top-3 in 61 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/20	LRL	1m D	ROC 1-65	3rd/7 -5L	80	9.0-1	b L	Inside;one paced str
8/30	TIM	1m D	OC 12k	Won/6 by 2	73	1.1-1	b L	Rail;eased out upper
8/7	CNL	1 1/16 T	Clm 25k	8th/8 -7¾L	69	23-1	b L	Mild midmove;fade

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

LAUREL PARK · RACE 8

UPCOMING

Ratings Optional Claiming

Field

9 runners

Purse

$29,000

Post

3:54 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#3 · 33%

Claiming $20,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 1 Mile: 94.07

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #3 Law School (a presser/stalker, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 73 · 85 · 66. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #2 Kiss Me Mo at 5-2. Use #9 Ineedyoubabe in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #3 LAW SCHOOL (2-1) — our number agrees.
#3 LAW SCHOOL — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (29.5% to their 26.0%).
#2 KISS ME MO — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 26.2%, they've got 22.3%.
#9 INEEDYOUBABE — our #3 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 18.2%, they've got 14.2%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#2 KISS ME MO — we make it 26.2%, the morning line works out to 22.3%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#9 INEEDYOUBABE — we make it 18.2%, the morning line works out to 14.2%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #7 Diamond N Dress; pressure from #2 Kiss Me Mo, #3 Law School; the shape helps #1 Bugged Out, #2 Kiss Me Mo, #3 Law School; and works against #7 Diamond N Dress.

Lead

7Diamond N Dress86

Press

2Kiss Me Mo933Law School901Bugged Out806Moon Cache79

Stalk

4Secret Journey779Ineedyoubabe728Braquet695The Goddess Factor58

none

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Kiss Me Mo

Law School

Diamond N Dress

Bugged Out

Moon Cache

Secret Journey

Ineedyoubabe

Braquet

The Goddess Factor

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Diamond N Dress

Moon Cache

Bugged Out

Kiss Me Mo

Secret Journey

Law School

Braquet

Ineedyoubabe

The Goddess Factor

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Bet types

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