Pick sheet

Race 31:02 PM ROC 1-75Early Pick 4 starts

5.5F · Turf · 10 entered. Our model's top pick, Bushido, is 32% to win (morning line implies 31%). Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #1 Bushido ML 9-5 Fair 2-1 Model #1 Top last-race fig ► Steady ≡ Steady 85–90

Jockey F. Boyce · Trainer L. Gaudet · KEE 2: 2-0-0 · Dist 18: 6-2-2 · best fig at 5½f turf 91 · 36 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	LRL	5½f D	ROC 1-75	2nd/4	90	1.2-1	b L	Rail; grudgingly
8/22	CNL	5½f T	Handicap	5th/7 -½L	85	3.2-1	b L	Pace inside;falterd1/8
7/31	CNL	6f T	OC 25k	2nd/7	89	0.6-1	b L	Ins-2p;dug in;edge out

Case: Last out 2nd in the ROC 1-75 at LRL. Last Brisnet figures 90-85-89. Best at today's distance 91. 6-for-18 at the distance. 2-for-2 at Laurel Park. L. Gaudet / F. Boyce.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #7 Jungle Glow ML 7-2 Fair 3-1 Model #2 ► Steady ↕ Up and down 68–89

Jockey M. Chuan · Trainer J. Ness · KEE 3: 0-1-2 · Dist 12: 3-5-3 · best fig at 5½f turf 88 · 13 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	LRL	5½f D	Alw n1x	Won/6 by hd	82	2.0-1	b L	Sttld;bid3/8;went clr
9/5	CNL	5½f T	Clm 25k c	Won/9	88	1.4-1	b L	Bid 2p turn;well clr
8/20	CNL	5½f T	Alw n1x	2nd/6 -1L	68	4.6-1	b L	Rail bid; outfinished

Case: Last out won in the Alw49755n1x at LRL. Last Brisnet figures 82-88-68. Best at today's distance 88. 3-for-12 at the distance. 0-for-3 at Laurel Park. J. Ness / M. Chuan.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Use #10 Apollo Ten ML 5-2 Fair 4-1 Model #3 ► Steady ★ Best at 5½f turf: 93 Last out 4th/7 -2L in the OC100000b at TAM. Last Brisnet figures 88-81-83. Best at today's distance 93. 2-for-5 at the distance. M. Clement / M. Sanchez. Knock: Off 218 days. Never raced at Laurel Park.

Jockey M. Sanchez · Trainer M. Clement · Dist 5: 2-1-2 · best fig at 5½f turf 93 · 218 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
3/27	TAM	5f T	OC 100k b	4th/7 -2L	88	4.0-1	b L	Ins;2w tippd in;mildly
3/12	TP	6f D	OC 62k b	5th/5 -3L	81	6.2-1	b L	Bump st;press 3p;faded
5/3	BAQ	6f T	ElsvQulty Stk	10th/10 -5L	83	2.8-1		Rank 1/2-7/16;ins turn

Narrowing the field: A #1, #4, #10 · B #7, #8, #9 · C #2, #3, #5, #6

Angles: #9 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

R3 Laurel Park · Ratings Optional Claiming

1:02 PM ET · 5 1/2 Furlongs Turf · $37,000 · 5 runners (5 out)1:02 PM · 5½f Turf · 5 runners (5 out)

Official $37K · Ratings Optional Claiming

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1BushidoRan 1stF. Boyce · L. GaudetBoyce · GaudetA90 85 89►≡@trip 919-5Fair 2-132%► Steady90 85 89 ≡@trip 91A1

Card model 32% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 85–90 · Best fig at today's trip 91 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 90 85 89

Jockey Forest Boyce 32% career 5-for-35 on turf this meet (14%) · Trainer Lacey Gaudet 30% career 0-for-10 on turf this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Awesome McKinzie 8-1, R5: Worries Unfounded 10-1, R6: Jerry Inspires 20-1, R7: Synergism 5-2 +2 more · Trainer R9: Forrest City 8-1

★ FASTEST WORK4/5 board here

Switches from dirt to turf. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.

PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 8)

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Sep 16; 2 works in 30d

RECORD 3 wins, 4 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD Forest Boyce from post 1 here: 12 wins, 34 top-3 in 81 rides · 15% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	LRL	5½f D	ROC 1-75	2nd/4	90	1.2-1	b L	Rail; grudgingly
8/22	CNL	5½f T	Handicap	5th/7 -½L	85	3.2-1	b L	Pace inside;falterd1/8
7/31	CNL	6f T	OC 25k	2nd/7	89	0.6-1	b L	Ins-2p;dug in;edge out

2Dowagiac ChiefM. Rojas · J. RogersRojas · RogersC83 76 76▲+6≡30-1<1%▲ Up +6 · career best83 76 76 ≡C

Card model <1% · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +6 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 76–83 · Last 3 figs 83 76 76

Jockey Martina Rojas 30% career 1-for-3 on turf this meet · Trainer J Michael Rogers 26% career

Also today · Jockey R5: Rock Tune 15-1, R8: Bugged Out 30-1 · Trainer R5: Rock Tune 15-1

Jky 8/42 from post 2

Class relief: optional claiming last time, unknown today. Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 44d back)

RECORD Martina Rojas from post 2 here: 8 wins, 17 top-3 in 42 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/19	PID	6f D	OC 40k n2x	6th/6 -4¾L	83	36-1	L	Slow start; no threat;
9/29	PID	6½f D	OC 40k b	2nd/5 -3L	76	14-1	L	Late bid;up for place
8/14	PID	6½f D	OC 40k n2x	5th/6 -3L	76	23-1	L	Evenly; no threat;

3Fierce and StrongRan 5thA. Cruz · M. Salvaggio Jr.Cruz · Salvaggio Jr.C83 74 56▲▲+15↕@trip 836-1Fair 10-19%▲▲ Big jump +1583 74 56 ↕@trip 83C

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +15 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 56–83 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 83 74 56

Jockey Angel Cruz 33% career 4-for-41 on turf this meet (10%) · Trainer Michael Jr Salvaggio 30% career 0-for-4 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Who's Got Cents 8-1, R4: Love You Love You 10-1, R7: Can't Fool Me 10-1, R8: The Goddess Factor 12-1

2/4 board here

Figures are climbing: 56, 74, 83 over its last three. Has won 4 of 9 going today's distance.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

TROUBLED TRIP Traffic 3/16; stdy 1/16 last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS Routine prep: 2 works in 30d, last 16d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 4 starts here

RECORD Angel Cruz from post 3 here: 23 wins, 63 top-3 in 170 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/13	LRL	5½f T	ROC 1-65	4th/9 -2L	83	5.8-1	b L	Traffic 3/16;stdy 1/16
8/14	PEN	5f T	sMrshlJnyB75k	5th/8 -6L	74	6.8-1	b	Shuffled 3/8;3-4wd 1/4
7/18	MTH	5½f D	WolfHillB100k	4th/4 -10L	56	3.8-1	b	Chased; no factor

4CybertimeJ. Barbosa · A. FarriorBarbosa · FarriorA90 73 86▲+710-1<1%▲ Up +790 73 86A

Card model <1% · Our #6 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +7 · Last 3 figs 90 73 86

Jockey Jeiron Barbosa 30% career ★ 10-for-42 on turf this meet (24%) · Trainer Anthony Farrior 41% career 4-for-7 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Molly The Great 12-1, R2: Beltane 6-1, this race: All The Hardways 15-1, R4: It's Fine 3-1 +4 more · Trainer R4: It's Fine 3-1, R8: Ineedyoubabe 9-2

CLASS UP★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

Comes in off a victory in a 4-horse race at LRL. Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

SHARP LAST OUT In hand turn; driving last out, and it did it the right way.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Aug 13 (3F in :35.00), 1 work in 30d

RECORD Jeiron Barbosa from post 4 here: 20 wins, 54 top-3 in 138 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	LRL	5½f D	ROC 1-75	Won/4 by 1½	90	2.8-1	b L	In hand turn;driving
9/4	TIM	-6½f D	OC 20k	2nd/5	73	0.7-1	b L	Vied outs;clr 1/4;game
8/19	MNR	6f D	Alw n2y	2nd/5 -2½L	86	1.3-1	b L	Best came too late

5Winston WolfM. Chuan · M. McGoeyChuan · McGoeyC85 67 80▲▲+1020-1<1%▲▲ Big jump +1085 67 80C

Card model <1% · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · Last 3 figs 85 67 80

Jockey Martin Chuan 37% career 1-for-15 on turf this meet (7%) · Trainer Monica McGoey 1-for-3 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey this race: Jungle Glow 7-2, R5: Pageant Princess 12-1, R7: My Ronda 6-1, R8: Law School 2-1 +2 more · Trainer R7: Chilling Factor 20-1

60D LAYOFFCLASS DROP3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Back to 5½ furlongs off a 1 1/16 miles race. A step up in company: $12,500 claiming before, unknown today.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Swung 5wd; rallied), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 3 works in 30d and the last 9d back

RECORD Martin Chuan from post 5 here: 6 wins, 17 top-3 in 44 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/9	CNL	1 1/16 D	Clm 12k	2nd/8 -4L	85	5.7-1	L	Swung 5wd; rallied
3/1	GP	1 1/16 T	Clm 35k	8th/8 -18L	67	74-1	L	Checked start; trailed
9/17	CD	1m D	Clm 16k c	5th/9 -3L	80	11-1	L	Stalk 2w;chs btw;nobid

6All the HardwaysJ. Barbosa · A. AllenBarbosa · AllenC86 84 72▲+415-1<1%▲ Up +486 84 72C

Card model <1% · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +4 · Last 3 figs 86 84 72

Jockey Jeiron Barbosa 30% career ★ 10-for-42 on turf this meet (24%) · Trainer A Ferris Iii Allen 25% career 3-for-19 on turf this meet (16%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Molly The Great 12-1, R2: Beltane 6-1, this race: Cybertime 10-1, R4: It's Fine 3-1 +4 more · Trainer R1: Cross Of Valor 10-1, this race: Don't Wait Up 12-1, R5: Instparty 30-1, R6: Side Hug 6-1 +3 more

5/8 board here

Beaten a head for 3rd in a 5-horse race at LRL. Has moved up each time out, 72 to 84 to 86.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 66d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 5 on the board from 8 starts here

RECORD Jeiron Barbosa from post 6 here: 25 wins, 69 top-3 in 139 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	LRL	6f D	ROC 1-75	3rd/5 by hd	86	4.4-1	b L	Ins pair; grudgingly
9/20	LRL	6f D	ROC 1-75	3rd/6 -1½L	84	4.1-1	b L	Cut corner;held show
9/5	TIM	-6½f D	OC 30k n2x	Won/6	72	3.7-1	b L	Brk in;bmp;duel outs

7Jungle GlowRan 2ndM. Chuan · J. NessChuan · NessB82 88 68►↕@trip 887-2Fair 3-124%► Steady82 88 68 ↕@trip 88B2

Card model 24% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 68–89 · Best fig at today's trip 88 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 88 68

Jockey Martin Chuan 37% career 1-for-15 on turf this meet (7%) · Trainer Jamie Ness 41% career ★ 7-for-30 on turf this meet (23%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey this race: Winston Wolf 20-1, R5: Pageant Princess 12-1, R7: My Ronda 6-1, R8: Law School 2-1 +2 more · Trainer R1: Mischievous Twins 9-5, R8: Law School 2-1, R9: Kalea Bay 6-1, R10: Uniqueness 6-5 +1 more

★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST2/3 board here

Last start was a win, in a 6-horse allowance race at LRL at 2-1. Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Oct 2; 2 works in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

RECORD Martin Chuan from post 7 here: 2 wins, 7 top-3 in 23 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	LRL	5½f D	Alw n1x	Won/6 by hd	82	2.0-1	b L	Sttld;bid3/8;went clr
9/5	CNL	5½f T	Clm 25k c	Won/9	88	1.4-1	b L	Bid 2p turn;well clr
8/20	CNL	5½f T	Alw n1x	2nd/6 -1L	68	4.6-1	b L	Rail bid; outfinished

8Where's RayRan 3rdJ. Rocco Jr. · M. SalzmanRocco Jr. · SalzmanB81 85 76►@trip 906-1Fair 6-114%► Steady81 85 76@trip 90B

Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 90 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 85 76

Jockey J S Jr Rocco 2-for-20 on turf this meet (10%) · Trainer Megan Salzman 22% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Whimmoffortune 10-1, R4: Morganite Rose 30-1, R9: Power Wrench 30-1 · Trainer R10: Speed Focused 30-1

CLASS UP★ FASTEST WORK6/8 board here

7 wins from 20 starts at this distance. Fastest 5F work of its morning on Aug 6 (1:01.00), a sign it is training forwardly.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 22d ago

RECORD 3 wins, 6 on the board from 8 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	LRL	5½f D	OC 40k n2x	4th/5 -4½L	81	6.8-1	b L	Chased pace; tired
9/13	LRL	5½f T	ROC 1-65	Won/9 by 1	85	2.5-1	b L	3w;fan 6w;grind;up;drv
8/15	CNL	5½f T	rHandicap	6th/7 -5¾L	76	9.1-1	b L	2-4p turn; no rally

9Don't Wait Up▼H. Karamanos · A. AllenKaramanos · AllenB85 79 95►12-1<1%► Steady85 79 95B▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model <1% · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 85 79 95

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey H A Karamanos 32% career 5-for-42 on turf this meet (12%) · Trainer A Ferris Iii Allen 25% career 3-for-19 on turf this meet (16%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Honor Thy Cookie 15-1, R5: Wonder Girl 1-1, R6: Side Hug 6-1, R7: Chilling Factor 20-1 +1 more · Trainer R1: Cross Of Valor 10-1, this race: All The Hardways 15-1, R5: Instparty 30-1, R6: Side Hug 6-1 +3 more

CLASS DROP7/9 board here

Tops the field on speed figures, a 95 against 93 for the next best. Was 5th of 5 at the first call last time.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 25 days ago

RECORD 1 win, 7 on the board from 9 starts here

RECORD H A Karamanos from post 9 here: 4 wins, 20 top-3 in 64 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	LRL	6f D	ROC 1-75	4th/5 -3¾L	85	3.1-1	b L	Off duel 3-4wd;mildly
7/26	CNL	1m D	Clm 40k	5th/7 -4½L	79	3.1-1	b L	Bmp st;clip heels3p1/4
6/14	LRL	6f D	OC 40k n2x	2nd/8	95	7.6-1	b L	Outs bid;duel;stbbrnly

10Apollo Ten★Ran 4thM. Sanchez · M. ClementSanchez · ClementA88 81 83►@trip 935-2Fair 4-120%► Steady88 81 83@trip 93A★ Best at the trip 933

Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 93 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 88 81 83

★ Best at the trip 93

Jockey Mychel J Sanchez 37% career 8-for-51 on turf this meet (16%) · Trainer Miguel Clement 35% career 1-for-3 on turf this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Cross Of Valor 10-1, R1: Mischievous Twins 9-5, R4: Hurricane Lynn 2-1, R5: Naughty Favors 8-1 +2 more

180D+ LAYOFFCLASS UP3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

218 days since the last start, the longest layoff in here, so it needs the works to say it's ready. Picks up 5 pounds from its last start.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 3 works in 30d and the last 9d back

RECORD Mychel J Sanchez from post 10 here: 4 wins, 12 top-3 in 31 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
3/27	TAM	5f T	OC 100k b	4th/7 -2L	88	4.0-1	b L	Ins;2w tippd in;mildly
3/12	TP	6f D	OC 62k b	5th/5 -3L	81	6.2-1	b L	Bump st;press 3p;faded
5/3	BAQ	6f T	ElsvQulty Stk	10th/10 -5L	83	2.8-1		Rank 1/2-7/16;ins turn

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #1 Bushido, won.

1st1BushidoWin$5.80Place$2.80Show$2.10Our #1

2nd7Jungle GlowWin—Place$2.40Show$2.10Our #2

3rd8Where's RayWin—Place—Show$2.40Our #4

4th10Apollo TenOur #3

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

LAUREL PARK · RACE 3

OFFICIAL

Ratings Optional Claiming

Field

10 runners

Purse

$37,000

Post

1:02 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#1 · 32%

Claiming $30,000, for 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 5 1/2 Furlongs: 60.63

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #1 Bushido (early speed, M/L 9-5). Recent figures: 90 · 85 · 89. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #7 Jungle Glow at 7-2. Use #10 Apollo Ten in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · WON

Top pick Bushido won

What worked

✓ Top pick in the money (1st)
✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #1)
✓ Our top 3 finished 1st, 2nd, 4th

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#1 BUSHIDO	1st
#2	#7 JUNGLE GLOW	2nd
#3	#10 APOLLO TEN	4th
#4	#8 WHERE'S RAY	3rd
#5	#3 FIERCE AND STRONG	5th

Actual finish

1st	#1 Bushido	our #1
2nd	#7 Jungle Glow	our #2
3rd	#8 Where's Ray	our #4
4th	#10 Apollo Ten	our #3
5th	#3 Fierce and Strong	our #5

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #1 BUSHIDO (9-5) — our number agrees.
#1 BUSHIDO — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 30.1%, they've got 24.4%.
#10 APOLLO TEN — our #3 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 23.9%, they've got 19.6%.
#7 JUNGLE GLOW — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 20.9%, they've got 15.2%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#1 BUSHIDO — we make it 30.1%, the morning line works out to 24.4%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#10 APOLLO TEN — we make it 23.9%, the morning line works out to 19.6%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#7 JUNGLE GLOW — we make it 20.9%, the morning line works out to 15.2%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Longshot the model rates above its line: #8 WHERE'S RAY (6-1) — our fair 13.4% is above the morning line's 9.8%; needs the trip to fall right.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #1 Bushido; pressure from #6 All The Hardways, #8 Where's Ray; the shape helps #2 Dowagiac Chief, #4 Cybertime, #5 Winston Wolf; and works against #1 Bushido.

Lead

1Bushido92

Press

6All The Hardways948Where's Ray9410Apollo Ten904Cybertime89

Stalk

7Jungle Glow869Don't Wait Up832Dowagiac Chief825Winston Wolf72

3Fierce And Strong91

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

All The Hardways

Where's Ray

Bushido

Apollo Ten

Cybertime

Jungle Glow

Don't Wait Up

Dowagiac Chief

Winston Wolf

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Fierce And Strong

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Bet types

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