| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/16 | DEL | 6f D | MCL 12k | 4th/7 -3½L | 61 | 2.1-1 | b | Stalk 4-6p;1paced lane |
| 10/3 | DEL | 6f D | MCL 12k | 4th/7 -3L | 47 | 1.8-1 | b | Stp slw;ins-2p;mssd 3d |
| 9/16 | DEL | 6f D | MCL 25k | 5th/7 -3½L | 62 | 3.0-1 | b | In close; even finish |
| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/15 | LRL | 1 1/16 D | MCL 35k | 3rd/5 -6½L | 67 | 15-1 | Closed willingly rail |
| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/15 | LRL | 5½f D | MCL 25k | 3rd/7 -7L | 52 | 32-1 | b | Circled 5 wide;gaining |
★ Distance horse: #9 Speed Focused (30-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 47 from 2 tries. Not in our top three.
1Uniqueness▲M. Chuan · J. NessChuan · NessA61 47 62▲+56-5Fair 1-151%
▲ Up +561 47 62A▲ Lone speed on early pace1Card model 51% · Fair odds 1-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +5 · Last 3 figs 61 47 62
▲ Lone speed on early paceJockey Martin Chuan 37% career 2-for-10 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Jamie Ness 41% career 6-for-36 on dirt this meet (17%) ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R3: Winston Wolf 20-1, R3: Jungle Glow 7-2, R5: Pageant Princess 12-1, R7: My Ronda 6-1 +2 more · Trainer R1: Mischievous Twins 9-5, R3: Jungle Glow 7-2, R8: Law School 2-1, R9: Kalea Bay 6-1 +1 moreMoves up from maiden claiming $12,500 to maiden claiming $16,000. Stretches out from 6 furlongs to a mile.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 8)WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 73 days agoRECORD Martin Chuan from post 1 here: 3 wins, 17 top-3 in 45 rides · 13% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/16 DEL 6f D MCL 12k 4th/7 -3½L 61 2.1-1 b Stalk 4-6p;1paced lane 10/3 DEL 6f D MCL 12k 4th/7 -3L 47 1.8-1 b Stp slw;ins-2p;mssd 3d 9/16 DEL 6f D MCL 25k 5th/7 -3½L 62 3.0-1 b In close; even finish 2Jack Blushes▼L. Briceno · A. AllenBriceno · AllenB5215-1Fair 12-18%
—52B▼ Best fig 52 is 5+ under today's par 733Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 52
▼ Best fig 52 is 5+ under today's par 73Jockey Leandro M Briceno 28% career ★ 8-for-39 on dirt this meet (21%) · Trainer A Ferris Iii Allen 25% career 2-for-23 on dirt this meet (9%)Also today · Jockey R1: Band On The Run 20-1, R4: Dreams To Sell 9-2, R5: Preparefortakeoff 6-1, R6: Sunday Legacy 30-1 +1 more · Trainer R1: Cross Of Valor 10-1, R3: All The Hardways 15-1, R3: Don't Wait Up 12-1, R5: Instparty 30-1 +3 moreBest recent figure is 52, well under the 73 par for this level. Goes a mile after running 5½ furlongs last time.
PACE HELPS The front end should be a fight, and this one gets to wait on it.WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 4d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/15 LRL 5½f D MCL 25k 3rd/7 -7L 52 32-1 b Circled 5 wide;gaining 3Mr Galvan▼R. Rodriguez · M. LopezRodriguez · LopezC24 5030-1Fair 50-12%
—24 50C▼ Best fig 50 is 5+ under today's par 73Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 24 50
▼ Best fig 50 is 5+ under today's par 73Jockey Ronaldo Rodriguez 34% career 2-for-12 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Mario Roberto Lopez 26% career 2-for-7 on dirt this meetFinished 7th in a 7-horse maiden claiming $12,500 race at DEL, beaten 13 lengths. Raises its level, maiden claiming $12,500 last time and maiden claiming $16,000 now.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 7d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/3 DEL 6f D MCL 12k 7th/7 -13L 24 43-1 b No factor 9/10 DEL 7½f T MSW 9th/9 -15L 50 59-1 b Off slowly; outrun 4Igaming▼C. Lopez · B. RussellLopez · RussellA673-1Fair 2-131%
—67A▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 732Card model 31% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 67
▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 73Jockey Carlos Eduardo Lopez 36% career 3-for-33 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Brittany T Russell 43% career ★ 6-for-21 on dirt this meet (29%), #3 of 23 ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R5: Little Crybaby 30-1, R6: Konrad's Corner 8-1, R9: Mongolian Apple 6-1 · Trainer R7: Sleepwalker 7-2, R9: Surgical Precision 9-2, R9: Daring Venture 8-1Jky 19/106 from post 4Owns the highest recent figure here at 67. Was 4th of 5 at the first call last time.
PACE HELPS The front end should be a fight, and this one gets to wait on it.WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 24d agoRECORD Carlos Eduardo Lopez from post 4 here: 19 wins, 42 top-3 in 106 rides · 12% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/15 LRL 1 1/16 D MCL 35k 3rd/5 -6½L 67 15-1 Closed willingly rail 5Nova Knicks▼M. Chuan · J. NessChuan · NessB38 65@trip 386-5<1%
—38 65@trip 38B▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 73Card model <1% · Our #8 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 38 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 38 65
▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 73Jockey Martin Chuan 37% career 2-for-10 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Jamie Ness 41% career 6-for-36 on dirt this meet (17%) ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R3: Winston Wolf 20-1, R3: Jungle Glow 7-2, R5: Pageant Princess 12-1, R7: My Ronda 6-1 +2 more · Trainer R1: Mischievous Twins 9-5, R3: Jungle Glow 7-2, R8: Law School 2-1, R9: Kalea Bay 6-1 +1 moreNew trainer: Richard P Sillaman had it last time, Jamie Ness now. Was running in maiden claiming $25,000; today's maiden claiming $16,000 is an easier level on paper.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 6)WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Aug 2 (4F in :50.00), 1 work in 30dRECORD Martin Chuan from post 5 here: 6 wins, 17 top-3 in 44 rides · 13% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/25 LRL 1m D MCL 25kc 3rd/5 -6L 38 1.9-1 Rail bid;gave way 9/4 CNL 5½f T MSW 4th/5 -5L 65 7.7-1 Veer brk;3p;no bid 6Clockbuster▼J. McGuin · M. LopezMcGuin · LopezC43 26 62▼-4↕30-1Fair 50-12%
▼ Down -443 26 62 ↕C▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 73Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -4 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 26–62 · Last 3 figs 43 26 62
▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 73Jockey Jasmine McGuin 0-for-4 on dirt this meet · Trainer Mario Roberto Lopez 26% career 2-for-7 on dirt this meetTurns back in 8 days. A longer trip: 4½ furlongs last out, a mile today.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Stumbled st; no impact), and the figure already reflects it.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 61d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/23 CT 4½f D MSW 5th/6 -8L 43 23-1 b L Stumbled st;no impact 10/3 DEL 6f D MCL 12k 6th/7 -10L 26 11-1 b Close up btwn 2w;tired 9/4 TIM 4f D MCL 25k 5th/5 -5L 62 14-1 b 3-4wd; lacked response 7Not ForgottenJ. Briceno · K. BonifaceBriceno · Boniface?30-1<1%
—Debut?Card model <1% · Our #10 · Tier ?
Jockey Jean Gregor Briceno 28% career 0-for-13 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Kevin C Boniface 23% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meetJky 19/106 from post 7Makes his first start with no form to go on, only the Kobe's Back and Consider Me Gone breeding. First-time starter from a barn that wins 3% of the time with them (29 tried).
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 10d agoRECORD Jean Gregor Briceno from post 7 here: 19 wins, 46 top-3 in 106 rides · 10% wins from all posts hereLast three races
First start. By Kobe's Back out of Consider Me Gone (Dialed in)Trainer K. Boniface: 1st-time starters: 3% wins, 17% in the money (29 starts) · 2-year-olds: 9% wins, 32% in the money (56 starts)Jockey J. Briceno in routes: 10 wins from 61 (16%)Work Trk Dist Time How Rank 10/21 BON 7f 1:33.00 breezing 1/2 ● bullet 10/9 BON 6f 1:18.60 breezing 1/1 ● bullet 9/19 BON 4f :49.00 breezing 2/2 from gate 9/12 BON 5f 1:03.00 breezing 2/2 8/29 BON 6f 1:17.00 breezing 1/2 ● bullet 8Bagley Cut▼LSP. Luna · P. NazarioLuna · NazarioB52 6220-1Fair 30-14%
—52 62B▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 73LSCard model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 52 62
▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 73LSLongshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 4% against a line of 3%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Paul A Luna 34% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Pedro Nazario 21% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meetCLASS DROPChanges barns, from M L Jr Catalano to Pedro Nazario. Picks up 7 pounds from its last start.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.TROUBLED TRIP Bump st; btwn 2p; yield last out; the speed figure already reflects it.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 37d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/16 DEL 6f D MCL 12kc 6th/7 -3L 52 4.7-1 Bump st;btwn 2p; yield 9/30 DEL 5½f D MCL 50k 9th/10 -6¼L 62 53-1 Hesitated start 9Speed Focused▼★Y. Ortiz · M. SalzmanOrtiz · SalzmanC47 46 31▲▲+12↕@trip 4730-1Fair 30-13%
▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best47 46 31 ↕@trip 47C▼ Best fig 47 is 5+ under today's par 73★ Best at the trip 47Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 29–47 · Best fig at today's trip 47 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 47 46 31
▼ Best fig 47 is 5+ under today's par 73★ Best at the trip 47Jockey Yomar Orlando Ortiz 37% career 0-for-6 on dirt this meet · Trainer Megan Salzman 22% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet★ FASTEST WORK2/3 board hereFigures are climbing: 31, 46, 47 over its last three. A big drop, maiden claiming $30,000 to maiden claiming $16,000, and worth asking why.
PACE HELPS Several horses want the lead, which is the early heat a closer is looking for.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 86 days agoRECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 3 starts hereRECORD Yomar Orlando Ortiz from post 9 here: 2 wins, 4 top-3 in 31 rides · 8% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/16 LRL 1m D MCL 25k 3rd/5 -9½L 47 6.8-1 b Bmp;mv bw;4wd upper 9/25 LRL 1m D MCL 25k 2nd/5 -4L 46 19-1 b 4wd; gained place 8/29 TIM -6½f D MCL 12k 3rd/3 -11L 31 4.2-1 b No factor 10Mighty Moo▼J. Barbosa · A. AllenBarbosa · AllenA52 42 56▲+32-1<1%
▲ Up +352 42 56A▼ Best fig 56 is 5+ under today's par 73Card model <1% · Our #9 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +3 · Last 3 figs 52 42 56
▼ Best fig 56 is 5+ under today's par 73Jockey Jeiron Barbosa 30% career 4-for-38 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer A Ferris Iii Allen 25% career 2-for-23 on dirt this meet (9%)Also today · Jockey R1: Molly The Great 12-1, R2: Beltane 6-1, R3: Cybertime 10-1, R3: All The Hardways 15-1 +4 more · Trainer R1: Cross Of Valor 10-1, R3: All The Hardways 15-1, R3: Don't Wait Up 12-1, R5: Instparty 30-1 +3 moreBeaten 6½ lengths for 5th in a 7-horse maiden special weight race at LRL. Drops from maiden special weight to maiden claiming $16,000.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 5)WORKS Average work schedule for this field (1 work in 30d, last 11d ago)RECORD Jeiron Barbosa from post 10 here: 8 wins, 22 top-3 in 53 rides · 14% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/26 LRL 1 1/16 D MSW 5th/7 -6½L 52 20-1 b 4-2wd;vied;weakened 9/7 TIM -6½f D MSW 4th/5 -5½L 42 5.6-1 b Chased winner;tired 8/28 CNL 6f D Moc50000 5th/8 -13L 56 24-1 b 3w;swng 8w;no bid
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: honest. Speed from #1, #5, #10.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
LAUREL PARK · RACE 10
UPCOMINGMaiden Claiming $16,000
Maiden Claiming, for 2-year-olds.
Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.
● Track record at 1 Mile: 94.07
The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.
Our number tops on #1 Uniqueness (early speed, M/L 6-5). Recent figures: 61 · 47 · 62. Backup is #4 Igaming at 3-1. Use #2 Jack Blushes in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #1 UNIQUENESS (6-5) — our number agrees.
- #1 UNIQUENESS — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 48.7%, they've got 26.3%.
- #4 IGAMING — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 28.8%, they've got 14.4%.
- #2 JACK BLUSHES — our #3 number, a price play — we're at 7.4%, the board 3.6%.
Model vs the morning line
- #1 UNIQUENESS — we make it 48.7%, the morning line works out to 26.3%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
- #4 IGAMING — we make it 28.8%, the morning line works out to 14.4%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
- Longshot the model rates above its line: #2 JACK BLUSHES (15-1) — our fair 7.4% is above the morning line's 3.6%; supported by: 3-way speed duel up front — meltdown sets up the closer
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.
Likely leader: #1 Uniqueness; pressure from #10 Mighty Moo, #5 Nova Knicks; the shape helps #2 Jack Blushes, #4 Igaming, #9 Speed Focused; and works against #1 Uniqueness, #3 Mr Galvan, #5 Nova Knicks.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
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Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
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