Pick sheet

Race 27:31 PM OClm 15000

1.1F · Dirt · 9 entered. Our model's top pick, Jess Revenge, is 34% to win (morning line implies 28%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #3 Jess Revenge ML 9-5 Fair 2-1 Model #1 Top last-race fig ▲▲ Big jump +15 · career best

Jockey N. Duran · Trainer C. Lopez · KEE 4: 0-1-0 · Dist 13: 2-1-3 · best fig at 1.13636f dirt 83 · 22 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	LS	1½f D	Alw b	2nd/10 by hd	101	14-1	b L	Just short wire
9/25	LS	1.36364f D	Alw nc	8th/10 -4¼L	83	22-1	b L	No rally
9/12	LS	1.13636f D	Alw nc	7th/9 -3L	83	15-1	b L	Step slow

Case: Last out 2nd in the Alw17000b at LS. Last Brisnet figures 101-83-83. Best at today's distance 83. 2-for-13 at the distance. 0-for-4 at Lone Star Park. C. Lopez / N. Duran.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #2 B a Flirt ML 5-2 Fair 7-2 Model #2 ▲ Up +3 ≡ Steady 88–95

Jockey R. Delarosa Jr. · Trainer J. Palma-Rosales Jr. · KEE 5: 0-1-3 · Dist 14: 2-1-5 · best fig at 1.13636f dirt 95 · 21 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	LS	1.13636f D	Alw n3l	3rd/10 by hd	94	7.4-1	b L	Evened out late
9/26	LS	1.36364f D	OC 15k	3rd/10	91	12-1	b L	Led early;wknd
6/24	FMT	1.13636f D	Alw n3l	3rd/7 -½L	95	7.6-1	b L	Fractious gate;brushed

Case: Last out 3rd in the Alw16500n3l at LS. Last Brisnet figures 94-91-95. Best at today's distance 95. 2-for-14 at the distance. 0-for-5 at Lone Star Park. J. Palma-Rosales Jr. / R. Delarosa Jr..

Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Use #9 The Dulce Tacha ML 12-1 Fair 8-1 Model #3 ► Steady ↕ Up and down 66–89 Last out 6th/10 -2¾L in the Alw16500n3l at LS. Last Brisnet figures 78-66-74. Best at today's distance 78. 2-for-12 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Lone Star Park. J. Stinebaugh / A. Rivera. Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Jockey A. Rivera · Trainer J. Stinebaugh · KEE 1: 0-0-0 · Dist 12: 2-2-0 · best fig at 1.13636f dirt 78 · 9 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/22	LS	1.13636f D	Alw n3l	6th/10 -2¾L	78	31-1	b L	Brk out;bumped
9/7	PRM	1.81818f D	DbyTrl 8000	8th/8 -2L	66	8.6-1	b LB	Failed to threaten
7/31	PRM	1.81818f D	DbyTrl 8000	6th/8 -1L	74	2.9-1	b LB	Inside; weakened

Longshot #4 Big Contract ML 20-1 Fair 20-1 Model #7 ▲ Up +5

Jockey Ramirez Jr. · Trainer W. Lewis · Dist 24: 3-5-7 · 148 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
6/5	HOU	2½f D	OC 10k	7th/9 -1L	86	5.4-1	L	Failed to menace
5/8	HOU	3.95455f D	OC 20k	6th/8 -5L	76	8.1-1	b L	Chased inside; weaken
8/7	RET	3.95455f D	OC 20k c	2nd/7 -1L	77	4.7-1	b L	3 wide; up for place

Case: Last out 7th/9 -1L in the OC10000 at HOU. Last Brisnet figures 86-76-77. 3-for-24 at the distance. W. Lewis / Ramirez Jr..

Knock: Off 148 days. Never raced at Lone Star Park.

★ Distance horse: #1 A Higher Call (15-1) has the best figure in the field at 1.13636f dirt: 98 from 5 tries, record at the distance 15: 2-3-0. Not one of our picks.

Narrowing the field: A #2, #3, #7 · B #1, #6, #8 · C #4, #5, #9

R2 Lone Star Park · Optional Claiming $15,000

7:31 PM ET · 250 Yards Dirt · $16,500 · 9 runners7:31 PM · 1.1f Dirt · 9 runners

Upcoming $16K · Optional Claiming $15,000

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #1 A Higher Call (15-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 98 from 5 tries. Not in our top three.

1A Higher Call★N. Villatoro · F. Perez Jr.Villatoro · Perez Jr.B98 80 80▲▲+15@trip 9815-1Fair 30-13%▲▲ Big jump +15 · career best98 80 80@trip 98B★ Best at the trip 98
Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +15 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 98 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 98 80 80
★ Best at the trip 98
Jockey Noe Villatoro 30% career 11-for-63 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Francisco Jr Perez 30% career 3-for-23 on dirt this meet (13%)
Also today · Jockey R7: Cr Favorite Lady 8-1, R8: Brother Gaga 20-1
CLASS DROPWON LAST
Winner of an 8-horse $7,500 claiming race at LS last time. A step up in company: $7,500 claiming before, optional claiming today.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
SHARP LAST OUT Chart comment from the last start: Drew clear.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 211d ago
RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 5 starts here
RECORD Noe Villatoro from post 1 here: 4 wins, 19 top-3 in 37 rides · 8% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/9 LS 1f D Clm 7k n2l Won/8 98 2.1-1 Drew clear
9/26 LS 1.36364f D sClm20000n2l 6th/8 -¾L 80 9.1-1 Weakened
8/14 RET 1.13636f D sClm15000n2l 2nd/6 80 2.7-1 Dueled; lost head bob

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/9	LS	1f D	Clm 7k n2l	Won/8	98	2.1-1	Drew clear
9/26	LS	1.36364f D	sClm20000n2l	6th/8 -¾L	80	9.1-1	Weakened
8/14	RET	1.13636f D	sClm15000n2l	2nd/6	80	2.7-1	Dueled; lost head bob

2B a FlirtR. Delarosa Jr. · J. Palma-Rosales Jr.Delarosa Jr. · Palma-Rosales Jr.A94 91 95▲+3≡@trip 955-2Fair 7-221%▲ Up +394 91 95 ≡@trip 95A2

Card model 21% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +3 · ≡ Steady figures 88–95 · Best fig at today's trip 95 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 94 91 95

Jockey Ruben Jr Delarosa 1-for-32 on dirt this meet (3%) · Trainer Jose A Jr Palma-Rosales 14% career 0-for-8 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Oh Eagle Rose 3-1

★ FASTEST WORK4/5 board here

Last out was 3rd, a head behind the winner, in a 10-horse allowance race at LS. Fastest 1F work of its morning on Aug 30 (:12.40), a sign it is training forwardly.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 62 days ago

RECORD 0 wins, 4 on the board from 5 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	LS	1.13636f D	Alw n3l	3rd/10 by hd	94	7.4-1	b L	Evened out late
9/26	LS	1.36364f D	OC 15k	3rd/10	91	12-1	b L	Led early;wknd
6/24	FMT	1.13636f D	Alw n3l	3rd/7 -½L	95	7.6-1	b L	Fractious gate;brushed

3Jess RevengeN. Duran · C. LopezDuran · LopezA101 83 83▲▲+15@trip 839-5Fair 2-134%▲▲ Big jump +15 · career best101 83 83@trip 83A1
Card model 34% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +15 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 83 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 101 83 83
Jockey Nestor Duran 40% career 3-for-24 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Carlos Lopez 26% career 3-for-32 on dirt this meet (9%)
Also today · Jockey R3: Coronado Jess 7-2, R4: Karma Cha Ching 7-2, R12: Argyles 7-2 · Trainer R10: Mm Rampage 6-1
Owns the highest recent figure here at 101. Worked 1F in :12.20 on Jun 6, 2nd of 15 at the distance.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 147d ago
RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 4 starts here
RECORD Nestor Duran from post 3 here: 3 wins, 11 top-3 in 22 rides · 15% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/9 LS 1½f D Alw b 2nd/10 by hd 101 14-1 b L Just short wire
9/25 LS 1.36364f D Alw nc 8th/10 -4¼L 83 22-1 b L No rally
9/12 LS 1.13636f D Alw nc 7th/9 -3L 83 15-1 b L Step slow

4Big ContractLSRamirez Jr. · W. LewisRamirez Jr. · LewisC86 76 77▲+520-1Fair 20-14%▲ Up +586 76 77CLS

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +5 · Last 3 figs 86 76 77

Longshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 4% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Jr Jr Ramirez 33% career · Trainer Winston Lewis 26% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: El Rajas Fire 15-1, R5: Lonely Legacy 20-1, R6: Alluring Lil Eagle 20-1

60D LAYOFF

Returns from a 148-day break, the biggest in the field. New trainer: Brittany N Tellez had it last time, Winston Lewis now.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 7d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
6/5	HOU	2½f D	OC 10k	7th/9 -1L	86	5.4-1	L	Failed to menace
5/8	HOU	3.95455f D	OC 20k	6th/8 -5L	76	8.1-1	b L	Chased inside; weaken
8/7	RET	3.95455f D	OC 20k c	2nd/7 -1L	77	4.7-1	b L	3 wide; up for place

5Coronas FamouscartelG. Linares · J. MunizLinares · MunizC73 86 76▼▼-12@trip 8620-1Fair 50-12%▼▼ Big drop -1273 86 76@trip 86C
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -12 · Best fig at today's trip 86 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 86 76
Jockey Gilberto Linares 33% career 8-for-57 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Janessa Lee Muniz 24% career 0-for-22 on dirt this meet (0%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Cowgirl Speed 8-1, R3: Prize Time Girl 15-1, R5: Di Kvn Waven 5-2, R6: Sunshining 4-1 +3 more
60D LAYOFF
Gilberto Linares takes over from Ruben Jr Delarosa in the saddle. A 71-day gap since its last race.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS Average work schedule for this field (1 work in 30d, last 21d ago)
RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 3 starts here
RECORD Gilberto Linares from post 5 here: 3 wins, 8 top-3 in 18 rides · 15% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
8/21 RET 1.36364f D Alw n3l 9th/10 -4½L 73 34-1 b L No threat
8/1 RET 1.13636f D Alw n3l 9th/9 -1L 86 12-1 b L Faltered
6/25 RET 1½f D fsLa Villita46k 8th/10 -2¼L 76 53-1 b L No threat

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/21	RET	1.36364f D	Alw n3l	9th/10 -4½L	73	34-1	b L	No threat
8/1	RET	1.13636f D	Alw n3l	9th/9 -1L	86	12-1	b L	Faltered
6/25	RET	1½f D	fsLa Villita46k	8th/10 -2¼L	76	53-1	b L	No threat

6Favorite Love SongV. Urieta Jr. · R. WashingtonUrieta Jr. · WashingtonB86 84 87►≡@trip 9115-1Fair 20-15%► Steady86 84 87 ≡@trip 91B

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 84–91 · Best fig at today's trip 91 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 86 84 87

Jockey Victor Manuel Jr Urieta 19-for-105 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Richard Washington 16% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: Jj Kiss 4-1, R4: Jlc Show Time 5-1, R7: Aj Venom Player 6-5, R12: Chloes Man 15-1

Posted the fastest 1F work of the morning on Oct 1, in :10.80. 2nd of 19 at 1F on May 9, in :12.00.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 175d ago

RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	LS	1.36364f D	OC 15k	7th/10 -2¼L	86	22-1	b L	Flattened out
8/21	RET	1.36364f D	Alw n3l	8th/10 -2½L	84	3.9-1	b L	No threat
7/17	RET	1.59091f D	Alw n3l	4th/10 -1¼L	87	5.6-1	b L	Bid; faltered late

7She Cant Help ItB. Mendez Jr. · R. AguilarMendez Jr. · AguilarA83 99 65▲▲+119-2Fair 10-19%▲▲ Big jump +1183 99 65A
Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · Last 3 figs 83 99 65
Jockey Benjamin Jr Mendez 35% career 0-for-24 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Riley S Aguilar 17% career 0-for-15 on dirt this meet (0%)
★ FASTEST WORK
The Oct 15 work, 1F in :11.80, was the best time at that distance that morning. Finished 5th last time in a 9-horse allowance race at LS.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS SHARP 1f in :11.80 on Oct 15 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/1 LS 0½f D Alw n2l 5th/9 — 4.3-1 b L Needed more
8/16 GIL 1.59091f D DbyTrl 9000 6th/9 -1L 83 5.8-1 b L Broke alert gaveway
7/5 GIL 1.36364f D MSW Won/10 99 16-1 b L No troubles romped

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/1	LS	0½f D	Alw n2l	5th/9	—	4.3-1	b L	Needed more
8/16	GIL	1.59091f D	DbyTrl 9000	6th/9 -1L	83	5.8-1	b L	Broke alert gaveway
7/5	GIL	1.36364f D	MSW	Won/10	99	16-1	b L	No troubles romped

8Fortyacres and AmuleF. Calderon · K. HatleyCalderon · HatleyB93 73 72▲▲+14↕@trip 915-1Fair 10-110%▲▲ Big jump +1493 73 72 ↕@trip 91B

Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +14 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 72–93 · Best fig at today's trip 91 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 93 73 72

Jockey Francisco Calderon 37% career ★ 11-for-55 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Keelronn Hatley 14% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R4: Dr Americas Dynasty 15-1, R5: Shes Ec To Tempt 2-1, R6: Apollirevenge 3-1, R8: Holms 9-5 +4 more

60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK

Changes barns, from Samuel Mendoza to Keelronn Hatley. Figures are climbing: 72, 73, 93 over its last three.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Mild bid; traffic late), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 25 (1F in :11.40), 0 works in 30d

RECORD Francisco Calderon from post 8 here: 8 wins, 18 top-3 in 32 rides · 19% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
6/20	FMT	1½f D	Alw n3l	6th/10 -2L	93	11-1	b L	Mild bid;traffic late
5/14	RP	1½f D	Alw n3l	6th/8 -1¼L	73	14-1	b L	Evenly mid pack
4/11	RP	1½f D	Alw n3l	8th/10 -3L	72	10-1	b L	Lost path early

9The Dulce TachaA. Rivera · J. StinebaughRivera · StinebaughC78 66 74►↕@trip 7812-1Fair 8-110%► Steady78 66 74 ↕@trip 78C3

Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #3 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 66–89 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 66 74

Jockey Ali Rivera 34% career 10-for-93 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer John A Stinebaugh 36% career 10-for-65 on dirt this meet (15%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R4: Dakota Stone 12-1, R5: Shes Judge Tee 15-1, R6: I B A Big Girl 20-1, R7: Catching Your Dreams 12-1 +5 more · Trainer R4: Dakota Stone 12-1, R5: Shes Judge Tee 15-1, R5: Flies Like An Eagle 20-1, R6: I B A Big Girl 20-1 +7 more

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE★ FASTEST WORK

Turns back in 9 days. 6th last time, 2¾ lengths back, in a field of 10.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Brk out; bumped), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1F on Jul 15; 1 work in 30d

RECORD Ali Rivera from post 9 here: 6 wins, 19 top-3 in 49 rides · 17% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/22	LS	1.13636f D	Alw n3l	6th/10 -2¾L	78	31-1	b L	Brk out;bumped
9/7	PRM	1.81818f D	DbyTrl 8000	8th/8 -2L	66	8.6-1	b LB	Failed to threaten
7/31	PRM	1.81818f D	DbyTrl 8000	6th/8 -1L	74	2.9-1	b LB	Inside; weakened

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

LONE STAR PARK · RACE 2

UPCOMING

Optional Claiming $15,000

Field

9 runners

Purse

$16,500

Post

7:31 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#3 · 34%

Claiming $15,000, for 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 250 Yards: 12.77

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #3 Jess Revenge (a tactical type, M/L 9-5). Recent figures: 101 · 83 · 83. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #2 B A Flirt at 5-2. Use #9 The Dulce Tacha in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #3 JESS REVENGE (9-5) — our number agrees.
#3 JESS REVENGE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (28.8% to their 27.7%).
#2 B A FLIRT — our #2 number, about right at the windows (22.9% to their 22.2%).
#7 SHE CANT HELP IT — our #5 number, about right at the windows (12.4% to their 14.1%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #9 THE DULCE TACHA (12-1) — our fair 7.5% is above the morning line's 6.0%; supported by: top barn (36%) + jockey (34%) at 12-1 (a hot trainer-jockey pairing; on our own re-test it did not beat its odds)

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 A Higher Call, #2 B A Flirt, #3 Jess Revenge.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1A Higher Call2B A Flirt3Jess Revenge4Big Contract5Coronas Famouscartel6Favorite Love Song7She Cant Help It8Fortyacres And Amule9The Dulce Tacha

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

A Higher Call

B A Flirt

Jess Revenge

Big Contract

Coronas Famouscartel

Favorite Love Song

She Cant Help It

Fortyacres And Amule

The Dulce Tacha

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Bet types

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