Pick sheet

Race 37:57 PM Alw 20000nc

1.6F · Dirt · 8 entered. Our model's top pick, The Hottest Chilitos, is 29% to win (morning line implies 22%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #7 The Hottest Chilitos ML 5-2 Fair 5-2 Model #1 Top last-race fig ▲ Up +6

Jockey F. Giles · Trainer J. Raygoza · KEE 3: 0-1-2 · Dist 6: 1-1-3 · best fig at 1.59091f dirt 91 · 14 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	LS	1.59091f D	Alw nc	2nd/8 by hd	91	2.4-1	b L	Stmbled;grudingly
10/3	LS	1.13636f D	Alw n2l	3rd/9 -1L	96	8.6-1	b L	Outkicked 2nd
9/19	LS	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	3rd/10 by hd	78	8.1-1	b L	Brk out;outfinished

Case: Last out 2nd in the Alw20000nc at LS. Last Brisnet figures 91-96-78. Best at today's distance 91. 1-for-6 at the distance. 0-for-3 at Lone Star Park. J. Raygoza / F. Giles.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #8 Lethal Monday ML 3-1 Fair 3-1 Model #2 ► Steady ★ Best at 1.59091f dirt: 99

Jockey H. Hernandez · Trainer C. Mendoza · KEE 1: 1-0-0 · Dist 6: 2-2-1 · best fig at 1.59091f dirt 99 · 49 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/12	LS	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	Won/10	86	1.5-1	b L	Slammed;up;held sway
7/24	RET	1½f D	MSW	Won/10	99	1.1-1	b L	Strong driving finish
6/11	HOU	1.13636f D	MSW	2nd/10 -1½L	81	0.9-1	b L	Bid; second best

Case: Last out won in the fAlw16000n2l at LS. Last Brisnet figures 86-99-81. Best at today's distance 99. 2-for-6 at the distance. 1-for-1 at Lone Star Park. C. Mendoza / H. Hernandez.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Use #4 Coronado Jess ML 7-2 Fair 6-1 Model #3 ▲ Up +7 ↕ Up and down 67–88 Last out won in the FutTrl10000 at LS. Last Brisnet figures 83-88-73. Best at today's distance 67. 1-for-4 at the distance. 1-for-1 at Lone Star Park. J. Garcia / N. Duran. Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey N. Duran · Trainer J. Garcia · KEE 1: 1-0-0 · Dist 4: 1-0-1 · best fig at 1.59091f dirt 67 · 42 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	LS	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	Won/9	83	2.6-1	b	Always ahead
8/7	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	3rd/10 -2L	88	33-1	b L	Popped; stopped;
6/26	ALB	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	5th/9 -1½L	73	40-1	b L	Erratic course

Narrowing the field: A #6, #7, #8 · B #2, #3, #4 · C #1, #5

R3 Lone Star Park · Allowance · $20,000 purse

7:57 PM ET · 350 Yards Dirt · $20,000 · 8 runners7:57 PM · 1.6f Dirt · 8 runners

Upcoming $20K · Allowance · $20,000 purse

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Jj KissV. Urieta Jr. · B. PenaUrieta Jr. · PenaC83 85 88►@trip 884-1Fair 8-111%► Steady83 85 88@trip 88C

Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 88 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 83 85 88

Jockey Victor Manuel Jr Urieta 19-for-105 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Bobby Muniz Pena 22% career 1-for-2 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Favorite Love Song 15-1, R4: Jlc Show Time 5-1, R7: Aj Venom Player 6-5, R12: Chloes Man 15-1

60D LAYOFF

Returns from a 121-day break, the biggest in the field. Raises its level, stakes last time and allowance now.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 17d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/2	RET	1.59091f D	sFutTrl10000	4th/10 -½L	83	1.4-1	b	Bid; hung late
6/13	HOU	1.59091f D	SmHouFutG2 G2	3rd/10 by nk	85	10-1	b	Finished strong
5/23	HOU	1.59091f D	FutTrl10000	Won/10	88	2.5-1	b	Drew away; much best

2Backed By FameB. Candanosa · B. BolenCandanosa · BolenB91 76 82▲▲+12@trip 8210-1Fair 15-17%▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best91 76 82@trip 82B

Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 82 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 91 76 82

Jockey Bryan Candanosa 36% career 4-for-26 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Bradley Bolen 27% career 3-for-44 on dirt this meet (7%)

Also today · Jockey R6: Lookatme Z 7-2, R9: Dr Urban Cowboy 20-1 · Trainer R1: Six Pack In The Back 7-2, R6: Love Lies Bleedin 12-1

Last out was 2nd, 2½ lengths behind the winner, in a 10-horse allowance race at LS. A step up in company: allowance before, allowance today.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Squeezed st; no match. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 78d back

RECORD Bryan Candanosa from post 2 here: 6 wins, 21 top-3 in 33 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	LS	1.13636f D	Alw n2l	2nd/10 -2½L	91	14-1	b L	Squeezed st;no match
9/12	LS	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	7th/10 -1¾L	76	14-1	b L	Step slow
8/20	RET	1.59091f D	MSW	Won/9	82	34-1	b L	Dueled; determined

3Prize Time GirlG. Linares · O. NunezLinares · NunezB85 88 88►≡@trip 8815-1Fair 20-14%► Steady85 88 88 ≡@trip 88B

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 85–88 · Best fig at today's trip 88 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 88 88

Jockey Gilberto Linares 33% career 8-for-57 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Oscar Nunez 27% career 2-for-41 on dirt this meet (5%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Cowgirl Speed 8-1, R2: Coronas Famouscartel 20-1, R5: Di Kvn Waven 5-2, R6: Sunshining 4-1 +3 more · Trainer R5: Di Kvn Waven 5-2, R12: Chloes Man 15-1

Moves up from allowance to allowance. 8th last time, 3 lengths back, in a field of 10.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 81d ago

RECORD Gilberto Linares from post 3 here: 1 win, 7 top-3 in 15 rides · 15% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	LS	1½f D	Alw n1x	8th/10 -3L	85	8.7-1	b L	Lunged st;bmp
8/30	GIL	1.59091f D	GilCFaiFut203k	6th/10 -2L	88	21-1	b L	Clean trip solid try
8/15	GIL	1.59091f D	FutTrl9000	2nd/8 -1L	88	21-1	b L	Clean trip finished we

4Coronado JessN. Duran · J. GarciaDuran · GarciaB83 88 73▲+7↕@trip 677-2Fair 6-115%▲ Up +783 88 73 ↕@trip 67B3

Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +7 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 67–88 · Best fig at today's trip 67 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 83 88 73

Jockey Nestor Duran 40% career 3-for-24 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Jose A Garcia 32% career 2-for-33 on dirt this meet (6%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Jess Revenge 9-5, R4: Karma Cha Ching 7-2, R12: Argyles 7-2 · Trainer R5: Shes Ec To Tempt 2-1, R7: Aj Venom Player 6-5, R8: Holms 9-5

WON LAST

Gets a new rider, Nestor Duran replacing Victor Manuel Jr Urieta. Won last out in a 9-horse stakes race at LS.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 105d ago

RECORD Nestor Duran from post 4 here: 6 wins, 15 top-3 in 30 rides · 15% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	LS	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	Won/9	83	2.6-1	b	Always ahead
8/7	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	3rd/10 -2L	88	33-1	b L	Popped; stopped;
6/26	ALB	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	5th/9 -1½L	73	40-1	b L	Erratic course

5El Rajas FireRamirez Jr. · J. SewellRamirez Jr. · SewellC87 71 68▲▲+18@trip 8715-1Fair 30-13%▲▲ Big jump +18 · career best87 71 68@trip 87C

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +18 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 87 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 87 71 68

Jockey Jr Jr Ramirez 33% career · Trainer Jerry W Ii Sewell 14% career 4-for-14 on dirt this meet (29%), #3 of 71

Also today · Jockey R2: Big Contract 20-1, R5: Lonely Legacy 20-1, R6: Alluring Lil Eagle 20-1

WON LAST

Has moved up each time out, 68 to 71 to 87. Has won 2 of 3 going today's distance.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 59d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/8	LS	1.59091f D	Clm 10k n2l	Won/9	87	5.0-1	b L	Surged up
7/9	FMT	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	10th/10 -5L	71	12-1	b L	Erratic; no factor
3/28	RP	1.36364f D	MCL 20k	Won/10	68	19-1	b L	Long duel;proved best

6Bolo CowboyC. Aguilar · J. Guerra Jr.Aguilar · Guerra Jr.A75 93 91▼▼-14@trip 918-1Fair 15-16%▼▼ Big drop -1475 93 91@trip 91A

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -14 · Best fig at today's trip 91 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 93 91

Jockey Claudio Ponce Aguilar 30% career 6-for-66 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Jimmy Jr Guerra 23% career 1-for-18 on dirt this meet (6%)

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE60D LAYOFF

2 wins from 4 starts at this distance. A step up in company: stakes before, allowance today.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Bumped both sides), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 21d back

RECORD Claudio Ponce Aguilar from post 6 here: 2 wins, 6 top-3 in 32 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/15	GIL	1.59091f D	FutTrl9000	5th/8 -1¼L	75	1.5-1	b	Bumped both sides
7/30	RET	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	Won/8 by 1½	93	0.8-1	b	Rallied; up in time
6/12	DED	1.59091f D	FutTrl6000	2nd/8	91	1.6-1	b	Dueled; missed

7The Hottest ChilitosF. Giles · J. RaygozaGiles · RaygozaA91 96 78▲+6@trip 915-2Fair 5-228%▲ Up +691 96 78@trip 91A1

Card model 28% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +6 · Best fig at today's trip 91 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 91 96 78

Jockey Francisco Giles 29% career 3-for-52 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Jesus M Raygoza 14% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Six Pack In The Back 7-2, R6: Love Lies Bleedin 12-1, R7: Ss Special Cowgirl 6-1

3/3 board here

Beaten a head for 2nd in an 8-horse allowance race at LS.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 59d back

RECORD On the board in all 3 starts here (0 wins)

RECORD Francisco Giles from post 7 here: 2 wins, 11 top-3 in 36 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	LS	1.59091f D	Alw nc	2nd/8 by hd	91	2.4-1	b L	Stmbled;grudingly
10/3	LS	1.13636f D	Alw n2l	3rd/9 -1L	96	8.6-1	b L	Outkicked 2nd
9/19	LS	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	3rd/10 by hd	78	8.1-1	b L	Brk out;outfinished

8Lethal Monday★H. Hernandez · C. MendozaHernandez · MendozaA86 99 81►@trip 993-1Fair 3-124%► Steady86 99 81@trip 99A★ Best at the trip 992

Card model 24% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 99 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 86 99 81

★ Best at the trip 99

Jockey H Javier Hernandez 38% career 4-for-46 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Carlos I Mendoza 32% career 1-for-15 on dirt this meet (7%) ★ hot

WON LAST

Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 99, with 96 next best. Worked 1F in :11.80 on Apr 28, 2nd of 19 at the distance.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 186d ago

RECORD H Javier Hernandez from post 8 here: 3 wins, 8 top-3 in 22 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/12	LS	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	Won/10	86	1.5-1	b L	Slammed;up;held sway
7/24	RET	1½f D	MSW	Won/10	99	1.1-1	b L	Strong driving finish
6/11	HOU	1.13636f D	MSW	2nd/10 -1½L	81	0.9-1	b L	Bid; second best

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

LONE STAR PARK · RACE 3

UPCOMING

Allowance · $20,000 purse

Field

8 runners

Purse

$20,000

Post

7:57 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#7 · 28%

Allowance, for 2-year-olds.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 350 Yards: 17.14

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #7 The Hottest Chilitos (a tactical type, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 91 · 96 · 78. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #8 Lethal Monday at 3-1. Use #4 Coronado Jess in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #7 THE HOTTEST CHILITOS (5-2) — our number agrees.
#7 THE HOTTEST CHILITOS — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (24.3% to their 22.2%).
#8 LETHAL MONDAY — our #2 number, about right at the windows (20.9% to their 19.5%).
#4 CORONADO JESS — our #3 number, about right at the windows (17.5% to their 17.3%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Jj Kiss, #2 Backed By Fame, #3 Prize Time Girl.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Jj Kiss2Backed By Fame3Prize Time Girl4Coronado Jess5El Rajas Fire6Bolo Cowboy7The Hottest Chilitos8Lethal Monday

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Bolo Cowboy

Jj Kiss

Backed By Fame

Prize Time Girl

Coronado Jess

El Rajas Fire

The Hottest Chilitos

Lethal Monday

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