Pick sheet

Race 17:05 PM Md Sp Wt

2F · Dirt · 9 entered. Our model's top pick, Bull Dawgg, is 34% to win (morning line implies 22%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #4 Bull Dawgg ML 5-2 Fair 2-1 Model #1 ▼ Down -5

Jockey R. Hernandez Jr. · Trainer J. Sanchez · KEE 3: 0-2-0 · Dist 7: 0-2-1 · best fig at 2f dirt 87 · 35 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	LS	1.81818f D	sMdSpWt	2nd/8 -½L	77	3.3-1	b L	Just needed more
8/21	RET	2f D	MCL 15k	3rd/10 -1¼L	87	6.0-1	b L	Finished well
7/23	RET	1.59091f D	MCL 20k	6th/8 -1½L	82	2.0-1	b L	Faltered

Case: Last out 2nd in the sMdSpWt at LS. Last Brisnet figures 77-87-82. Best at today's distance 87. 0-for-7 at the distance. 0-for-3 at Lone Star Park. J. Sanchez / R. Hernandez Jr..

Knock: 0-for-7 at the distance.

Contender #5 Oh Eagle Rose ML 3-1 Fair 7-2 Model #2 ▲ Up +6 · career best ≡ Steady 79–87

Jockey R. Delarosa Jr. · Trainer R. Sedillo · KEE 2: 0-1-0 · Dist 9: 0-2-2 · best fig at 2f dirt 87 · 30 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/1	LS	2f D	MSW	2nd/10 -1L	87	9.7-1	b L	Up early;short
5/28	HOU	2f D	MSW	5th/8 -2¼L	82	3.0-1	b L	No threat
3/20	SUN	1.81818f D	MSW	7th/10 -2¼L	79	2.8-1	b L	Broke out; no threat

Case: Last out 2nd in the MdSpWt at LS. Last Brisnet figures 87-82-79. Best at today's distance 87. 0-for-9 at the distance. 0-for-2 at Lone Star Park. R. Sedillo / R. Delarosa Jr..

Knock: 0-for-9 at the distance.

Use #3 Six Pack in the Back ML 7-2 Fair 7-1 Model #3 ▲▲ Big jump +8 Last out 7th/9 -1L in the MdSpWt at LS. Last Brisnet figures 90-78-82. Best at today's distance 80. 0-for-13 at the distance. 0-for-6 at Lone Star Park. B. Bolen / F. Giles. Knock: 0-for-13 at the distance. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey F. Giles · Trainer B. Bolen · KEE 6: 0-0-0 · Dist 13: 0-1-0 · best fig at 2f dirt 80 · 16 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/15	LS	2½f D	MSW	7th/9 -1L	90	2.7-1	b L	Brk out;bmpd;late fade
10/1	LS	2f D	MSW	4th/10 -3L	78	7.0-1	b L	Brk out;bmp;need bid
9/11	LS	1.59091f D	MSW	6th/10 -2L	82	3.9-1	b L	Needed more

Longshot #6 Cowgirl Speed ML 8-1 Fair 10-1 Model #4 ► Steady

Jockey G. Linares · Trainer A. Terrazas · KEE 2: 0-0-0 · Dist 6: 0-0-0 · 8 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/23	LS	1.36364f D	MSW	6th/9 -2½L	76	13-1	b L	Step slow
10/2	LS	1.13636f D	MSW	7th/9 -4¾L	73	20-1	b L	No menace
8/6	RET	1.13636f D	MSW	4th/10 -1¾L	75	5.7-1	b L	Bid; no menace

Case: Last out 6th/9 -2½L in the fMdSpWt at LS. Last Brisnet figures 76-73-75. 0-for-6 at the distance. 0-for-2 at Lone Star Park. A. Terrazas / G. Linares.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1.59091f). 0-for-6 at the distance.

Narrowing the field: A #3, #4, #5 · B #7, #8, #9 · C #1, #2, #6

R1 Lone Star Park · Maiden Special Weight

7:05 PM ET · 440 Yards Dirt · $15,000 · 9 runners7:05 PM · 2f Dirt · 9 runners

Upcoming $15K · Maiden Special Weight

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Miss Carver CartelE. Ortega · L. HernandezOrtega · HernandezC68 69 53▲+6@trip 7430-1Fair 99-11%▲ Up +668 69 53@trip 74C
Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +6 · Best fig at today's trip 74 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 69 53
Jockey Edwin Alejandro Ortega 26% career 1-for-9 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Luna Eric Joel Hernandez 31% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet
Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field. Beaten 5¼ lengths for 8th in an 8-horse maiden special weight race at LS.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 37d ago
RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 6 starts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/8 LS 1.59091f D MSW 8th/8 -5¼L 68 44-1 b L Angld out;no bid
5/24 RP 2½f D Alw n2l 7th/8 -4¾L 69 21-1 b L Urged; empty
5/3 RP 1.81818f D MCL 20k 9th/10 -3¼L 53 43-1 b L Failed to menace
2NightcappA. Zuniga · F. MontielZuniga · MontielC5620-1Fair 99-11%—56C
Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 56
Jockey Alejandro Landeros Zuniga 21% career 4-for-25 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Francisco J Montiel 14% career 0-for-10 on dirt this meet (0%)
Moves up from maiden claiming $15,000 to maiden special weight. Turns back in 8 days.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 23d back
RECORD Alejandro Landeros Zuniga from post 2 here: 4 wins, 8 top-3 in 22 rides · 6% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/23 LS 1.81818f D MCL 15k 7th/7 -8½L 56 26-1 Bolted in
3Six Pack in the BackF. Giles · B. BolenGiles · BolenA90 78 82▲▲+8@trip 807-2Fair 7-112%▲▲ Big jump +890 78 82@trip 80A3
Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 90 78 82
Jockey Francisco Giles 29% career 3-for-52 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Bradley Bolen 27% career 3-for-44 on dirt this meet (7%)
Also today · Jockey R3: The Hottest Chilitos 5-2, R6: Love Lies Bleedin 12-1, R7: Ss Special Cowgirl 6-1 · Trainer R3: Backed By Fame 10-1, R6: Love Lies Bleedin 12-1
0/6 board here
Tops the field on speed figures, a 90 against 89 for the next best. 0 for 13 at today's distance.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 57d ago
RECORD Not on the board in 6 starts here
RECORD Francisco Giles from post 3 here: 9 wins, 25 top-3 in 50 rides · 9% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/15 LS 2½f D MSW 7th/9 -1L 90 2.7-1 b L Brk out;bmpd;late fade
10/1 LS 2f D MSW 4th/10 -3L 78 7.0-1 b L Brk out;bmp;need bid
9/11 LS 1.59091f D MSW 6th/10 -2L 82 3.9-1 b L Needed more
4Bull DawggR. Hernandez Jr. · J. SanchezHernandez Jr. · SanchezA77 87 82▼-5@trip 875-2Fair 2-134%▼ Down -577 87 82@trip 87A1
Card model 34% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -5 · Best fig at today's trip 87 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 87 82
Jockey Raul Padilla Jr Hernandez 38% career 11-for-57 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Jose Luis Iii Sanchez 34% career 5-for-47 on dirt this meet (11%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R4: Jess Good As Gold 30-1, R11: Inflation 15-1 · Trainer R8: Brother Gaga 20-1
2/3 board here
Last out was 2nd, ½ length behind the winner, in an 8-horse maiden special weight race at LS. Still looking for the first win after 7 starts.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 150d ago
RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 3 starts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/26 LS 1.81818f D sMdSpWt 2nd/8 -½L 77 3.3-1 b L Just needed more
8/21 RET 2f D MCL 15k 3rd/10 -1¼L 87 6.0-1 b L Finished well
7/23 RET 1.59091f D MCL 20k 6th/8 -1½L 82 2.0-1 b L Faltered
5Oh Eagle RoseR. Delarosa Jr. · R. SedilloDelarosa Jr. · SedilloA87 82 79▲+6≡@trip 873-1Fair 7-222%▲ Up +6 · career best87 82 79 ≡@trip 87A2
Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +6 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 79–87 · Best fig at today's trip 87 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 87 82 79
Jockey Ruben Jr Delarosa 1-for-32 on dirt this meet (3%) · Trainer Richard D Sedillo 35% career 0-for-11 on dirt this meet (0%)
Also today · Jockey R2: B A Flirt 5-2
Has moved up each time out, 79 to 82 to 87. Winless in 9 starts at this distance.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 38d ago)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/1 LS 2f D MSW 2nd/10 -1L 87 9.7-1 b L Up early;short
5/28 HOU 2f D MSW 5th/8 -2¼L 82 3.0-1 b L No threat
3/20 SUN 1.81818f D MSW 7th/10 -2¼L 79 2.8-1 b L Broke out; no threat
6Cowgirl SpeedLSG. Linares · A. TerrazasLinares · TerrazasC76 73 75►8-1Fair 10-110%► Steady76 73 75CLS
Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 76 73 75
LS
Longshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 10% against a line of 9%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Gilberto Linares 33% career 8-for-57 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Arturo Iii Terrazas 0-for-3 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R2: Coronas Famouscartel 20-1, R3: Prize Time Girl 15-1, R5: Di Kvn Waven 5-2, R6: Sunshining 4-1 +3 more
★ FASTEST WORK
Quick turnaround, just 8 days since the last start. Maiden through 6 starts.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Jun 19 (1F in :12.00), 0 works in 30d
RECORD Gilberto Linares from post 6 here: 3 wins, 5 top-3 in 17 rides · 15% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/23 LS 1.36364f D MSW 6th/9 -2½L 76 13-1 b L Step slow
10/2 LS 1.13636f D MSW 7th/9 -4¾L 73 20-1 b L No menace
8/6 RET 1.13636f D MSW 4th/10 -1¾L 75 5.7-1 b L Bid; no menace

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/8	LS	1.59091f D	MSW	8th/8 -5¼L	68	44-1	b L	Angld out;no bid
5/24	RP	2½f D	Alw n2l	7th/8 -4¾L	69	21-1	b L	Urged; empty
5/3	RP	1.81818f D	MCL 20k	9th/10 -3¼L	53	43-1	b L	Failed to menace

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/23	LS	1.81818f D	MCL 15k	7th/7 -8½L	56	26-1		Bolted in

7Whiskey HighA. Medina · M. ValenzuelaMedina · ValenzuelaB89 72 56▲▲+23↕@trip 7210-1Fair 12-17%▲▲ Big jump +23 · career best89 72 56 ↕@trip 72B

Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +23 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 56–89 · Best fig at today's trip 72 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 89 72 56

Jockey Alejandro Medina 35% career 5-for-50 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Michael G Valenzuela 37% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R7: Digital Dollar 30-1, R12: Capital Hatters 30-1

Gets a new rider, Alejandro Medina replacing Ruben Jr Delarosa. Figures are climbing: 56, 72, 89 over its last three.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Lugged out), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 23d back

RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/15	LS	2½f D	MSW	8th/9 -2¼L	89	11-1	b L	Lugged out
8/5	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	10th/10 -5¾L	72	74-1	b L	Bumped; pinched back
5/24	RUI	1.59091f D	FutTrl10000	7th/9 -5½L	56	9.0-1	b L	Broke slow;no late run

8Ab Special DashL. Vivanco · M. Reyes Jr.Vivanco · Reyes Jr.B80 90 71►@trip 9012-1Fair 20-14%► Steady80 90 71@trip 90B
Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 90 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 90 71
Jockey Luis L Vivanco 36% career 10-for-77 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Marcelo Jr Reyes 21% career 0-for-9 on dirt this meet (0%)
Also today · Jockey R7: First Memory 668 30-1, R10: Royalist 8-5
Owns the highest recent figure here at 90. Jockey switch: Angel A Fierro last out, Luis L Vivanco today.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 204d ago
RECORD Luis L Vivanco from post 8 here: 4 wins, 9 top-3 in 36 rides · 12% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/9 LS 1.36364f D sMdSpWt 4th/7 -2½L 80 5.5-1 b L Bmpd both sides
8/22 RET 2f D MSW 4th/10 -1¼L 90 57-1 b L Bid; out finished
7/25 RET 1½f D MSW 7th/10 -3¼L 71 13-1 b L No menace

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	LS	1.36364f D	sMdSpWt	4th/7 -2½L	80	5.5-1	b L	Bmpd both sides
8/22	RET	2f D	MSW	4th/10 -1¼L	90	57-1	b L	Bid; out finished
7/25	RET	1½f D	MSW	7th/10 -3¼L	71	13-1	b L	No menace

9Volador RedD. Garcia · J. VazquezGarcia · VazquezB83 68 83▲▲+99-2Fair 12-18%▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best83 68 83B

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best · Last 3 figs 83 68 83

Jockey Daniel X Garcia 33% career 1-for-14 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer Juan L Vazquez 30% career 2-for-10 on dirt this meet (20%)

Also today · Trainer R6: Eyedeale 8-1

0/4 board here

Winless in 7 starts at this distance. Still looking for the first win after 7 starts.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 53d ago

RECORD Not on the board in 4 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	LS	1.59091f D	MSW	4th/10 -1½L	83	16-1	b L	Bmpd;mild late gain
3/21	RP	1.59091f D	MSW	8th/10 -1L	68	37-1	b L	Evenly; no bid
11/14	LS	1.36364f D	MSW	5th/10 -2¼L	83	12-1	b L	Lost rear footing

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

LONE STAR PARK · RACE 1

UPCOMING

Maiden Special Weight

Field

9 runners

Purse

$15,000

Post

7:05 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#4 · 34%

Maiden Special Weight, for 5-year-olds.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 440 Yards: 21.03

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #4 Bull Dawgg (a tactical type, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 77 · 87 · 82. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #5 Oh Eagle Rose at 3-1. Use #3 Six Pack In The Back in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #4 BULL DAWGG (5-2) — our number agrees.
#4 BULL DAWGG — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (25.0% to their 22.0%).
#5 OH EAGLE ROSE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (21.0% to their 19.3%).
#3 SIX PACK IN THE BACK — our #3 number, about right at the windows (15.5% to their 17.1%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Miss Carver Cartel, #2 Nightcapp, #3 Six Pack In The Back.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Miss Carver Cartel2Nightcapp3Six Pack In The Back4Bull Dawgg5Oh Eagle Rose6Cowgirl Speed7Whiskey High8Ab Special Dash9Volador Red

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Miss Carver Cartel

Nightcapp

Six Pack In The Back

Bull Dawgg

Oh Eagle Rose

Cowgirl Speed

Whiskey High

Ab Special Dash

Volador Red

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