Pick sheet

Race 48:23 PM Trial

1.8F · Dirt · 10 entered. Our model's top pick, Full Moon Desire, is 28% to win (morning line implies 26%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #10 Full Moon Desire ML 2-1 Fair 5-2 Model #1 ▼ Down -3 Lasix off

Jockey R. Castro · Trainer S. Mendoza · Dist 9: 5-1-0 · best fig at 1.81818f dirt 100 · 55 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/6	ALB	2f D	AllAmOak G1	4th/9 -1½L	94	0.6-1	b L	Eq Amb
8/9	ALB	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	Won/7	103	0.1-1	b L	Kept to task;
7/24	RET	1.81818f D	fsMsRetama S60k	2nd/10 by hd	100	5.3-1	b	Led; weakened late

Case: Last out 4th/9 -1½L in the fAllAmOak-G1 at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 94-103-100. Best at today's distance 100. 5-for-9 at the distance. S. Mendoza / R. Castro.

Knock: Never raced at Lone Star Park.

Contender #3 Wera C ML 3-1 Fair 3-1 Model #2 ▼ Down -3 ≡ Steady 97–101

Jockey R. Vega · Trainer M. Chavez-Gutierrez · Dist 13: 5-6-2 · best fig at 1.81818f dirt 101 · 55 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/6	ALB	2f D	AllAmOak G1	3rd/9 -1L	97	7.6-1	b	Bumped start;came out
8/9	ALB	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	2nd/8 -½L	97	1.3-1	b	Rallied late;
7/18	FMT	1.59091f D	SpeedhrsDb25k	Won/10 by hd	101	0.2-1	b	Brushed st;strong kick

Case: Last out 3rd in the fAllAmOak-G1 at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 97-97-101. Best at today's distance 101. 5-for-13 at the distance. M. Chavez-Gutierrez / R. Vega.

Knock: Never raced at Lone Star Park.

Use #6 Karma Cha Ching ML 7-2 Fair 4-1 Model #3 ▲ Up +3 Last out 2nd in the DshCshDbG2-G2 at LS. Last Brisnet figures 98-87-101. Best at today's distance 101. 5-for-15 at the distance. 0-for-5 at Lone Star Park. E. Rubio / N. Duran. Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Jockey N. Duran · Trainer E. Rubio · KEE 5: 0-3-0 · Dist 15: 5-4-0 · best fig at 1.81818f dirt 101 · 21 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	LS	2f D	DshCshDbG2 G2	2nd/9 -½L	98	5.2-1	b L	Stumbled;just missd
9/18	LS	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	2nd/9 -½L	87	1.4-1	b L	Stmbld;duel late;missd
8/22	RET	1.81818f D	rTQSirDbRG3 G3	2nd/9 -2L	101	2.1-1	b L	Bid; up for place

Longshot #4 Dakota Stone ML 12-1 Fair 15-1 Model #5 ► Steady

Jockey A. Rivera · Trainer J. Stinebaugh · KEE 1: 0-1-0 · Dist 9: 1-3-2 · best fig at 1.81818f dirt 94 · 55 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/6	ALB	2f D	AllAmOak G1	9th/9 -2L	91	49-1	b L	Outrun
8/9	ALB	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	2nd/9 -½L	98	23-1	b L	Fought gamely;
6/28	ALB	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	3rd/8 -½L	79	2.1-1	b L	Bumped; led;caught 2nd

Case: Last out 9th/9 -2L in the fAllAmOak-G1 at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 91-98-79. Best at today's distance 94. 1-for-9 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Lone Star Park. J. Stinebaugh / A. Rivera.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Narrowing the field: A #3, #6, #10 · B #2, #4, #8 · C #1, #5, #7, #9

R4 Lone Star Park · Trial

8:23 PM ET · 400 Yards Dirt · $10,000 · 10 runners8:23 PM · 1.8f Dirt · 10 runners

Upcoming $10K · Trial

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Sin Tachas FavoriteE. Navarrete · S. WoodNavarrete · WoodC82 80 83▼-3@trip 8220-1Fair 99-11%▼ Down -382 80 83@trip 82C

Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -3 · Best fig at today's trip 82 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 80 83

Jockey Eugenio Alberto Navarrete 1-for-24 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer S Trey Wood 28% career 4-for-44 on dirt this meet (9%)

Also today · Jockey R7: Famous Ms Sashay 3-1 · Trainer R5: Flying Joy 1 3-1, R7: Famous Ms Sashay 3-1, R9: La Chuchy 30-1

Was running in allowance; today's stakes nongraded is an easier level on paper. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 225 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	LS	1.81818f D	Alw n2l	4th/8 -1¼L	82	10-1	b L	Stmbld brk;imrpvd late
8/9	ALB	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	7th/7 -6½L	80	14-1	b L	No threat;
6/28	ALB	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	4th/8 -1½L	83	19-1	b L	Hopped;bumpd;lost path

2Mrs Pyc Painted NovaG. Flores · R. ReadFlores · ReadB87 87 94►@trip 9015-1Fair 30-13%► Steady87 87 94@trip 90B

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 90 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 87 87 94

Jockey Garcia Luis Angel Flores 32% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Randy Read 17% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet

★ FASTEST WORK2/4 board here

Class relief: stakes last time, stakes nongraded today. Finished 5th last time in a 10-horse stakes race at LS.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS SHARP 1f in :12.00 on Apr 25 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 4 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	LS	1.59091f D	Stk 41.2500k	5th/10	87	14-1	L	Up early;wknd
8/29	GIL	1.13636f D	GilSprntCl35k	7th/9 -3L	87	15-1	L	Hopped no factor
7/31	RET	1.59091f D	Alw nc	3rd/7 by hd	94	5.8-1	L	Dueled; tired late

3Wera CR. Vega · M. Chavez-GutierrezVega · Chavez-GutierrezA97 97 101▼-3≡@trip 1013-1Fair 3-126%▼ Down -397 97 101 ≡@trip 101A2

Card model 26% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -3 · ≡ Steady figures 97–101 · Best fig at today's trip 101 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 97 97 101

Jockey Randy Vega 27% career · Trainer Marco Adair Chavez-Gutierrez 14% career

Also today · Trainer R12: Argyles 7-2

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE

5 wins from 13 starts at this distance. Beaten 1 length for 3rd in a 9-horse race at ALB.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

TROUBLED TRIP Bumped start; came out last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 22 (1F in :12.00), 1 work in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/6	ALB	2f D	AllAmOak G1	3rd/9 -1L	97	7.6-1	b	Bumped start;came out
8/9	ALB	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	2nd/8 -½L	97	1.3-1	b	Rallied late;
7/18	FMT	1.59091f D	SpeedhrsDb25k	Won/10 by hd	101	0.2-1	b	Brushed st;strong kick

4Dakota StoneLSA. Rivera · J. StinebaughRivera · StinebaughB91 98 79►@trip 9412-1Fair 15-16%► Steady91 98 79@trip 94BLS
Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 94 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 91 98 79
LS
Longshot read: 12-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 6% against a line of 6%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Ali Rivera 34% career 10-for-93 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer John A Stinebaugh 36% career 10-for-65 on dirt this meet (15%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R2: The Dulce Tacha 12-1, R5: Shes Judge Tee 15-1, R6: I B A Big Girl 20-1, R7: Catching Your Dreams 12-1 +5 more · Trainer R2: The Dulce Tacha 12-1, R5: Shes Judge Tee 15-1, R5: Flies Like An Eagle 20-1, R6: I B A Big Girl 20-1 +7 more
Jky 13/47 from post 4
Off 55 days since the last start. Purse drops from $694,186 to $10,000 against its last start.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 11d ago
RECORD Ali Rivera from post 4 here: 13 wins, 31 top-3 in 47 rides · 17% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/6 ALB 2f D AllAmOak G1 9th/9 -2L 91 49-1 b L Outrun
8/9 ALB 2f D DbyTrl 10000 2nd/9 -½L 98 23-1 b L Fought gamely;
6/28 ALB 2f D DbyTrl 10000 3rd/8 -½L 79 2.1-1 b L Bumped; led;caught 2nd

5Flying Salty CowgirlG. Pina · L. KeithPina · KeithC89 86 82▲+5≡@trip 7030-1Fair 99-11%▲ Up +5 · career best89 86 82 ≡@trip 70C

Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +5 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 82–89 · Best fig at today's trip 70 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 89 86 82

Jockey Garcia Rosendo E Pina 32% career 3-for-56 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Larry D Keith 28% career

Also today · Jockey R10: Big Daddys Secret 30-1

60D LAYOFFWON LAST

Larry D Keith takes over the training from Trey Ellis. Figures are climbing: 82, 86, 89 over its last three.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS SHARP 1f in :11.60 on Jan 5 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/25	DED	2½f D	MSW	Won/9	89	2.2-1	b L	Speed; finished strong
6/13	DED	1.59091f D	DbyTrl 6000	4th/9 -2¼L	86	80-1	b L	Mild bid; evenly
5/2	DED	1.59091f D	MSW	3rd/9 -1L	82	4.2-1	b L	Broke in; solid try

6Karma Cha ChingN. Duran · E. RubioDuran · RubioA98 87 101▲+3@trip 1017-2Fair 4-120%▲ Up +398 87 101@trip 101A3

Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +3 · Best fig at today's trip 101 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 98 87 101

Jockey Nestor Duran 40% career 3-for-24 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Esteban Rubio 36% career 2-for-12 on dirt this meet (17%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Jess Revenge 9-5, R3: Coronado Jess 7-2, R12: Argyles 7-2

3/5 board here

2nd last time, ½ length back, in a field of 9. Worked 1F in :12.00 on Apr 24, 2nd of 19 at the distance.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Stumbled; just missd. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 190 days ago

RECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD Nestor Duran from post 6 here: 3 wins, 4 top-3 in 19 rides · 15% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	LS	2f D	DshCshDbG2 G2	2nd/9 -½L	98	5.2-1	b L	Stumbled;just missd
9/18	LS	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	2nd/9 -½L	87	1.4-1	b L	Stmbld;duel late;missd
8/22	RET	1.81818f D	rTQSirDbRG3 G3	2nd/9 -2L	101	2.1-1	b L	Bid; up for place

7Jess Good As GoldR. Hernandez Jr. · M. JungersHernandez Jr. · JungersC69 77 88▼▼-19↕@trip 8830-1Fair 99-11%▼▼ Big drop -1969 77 88 ↕@trip 88C

Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -19 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 69–99 · Best fig at today's trip 88 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 69 77 88

Jockey Raul Padilla Jr Hernandez 38% career 11-for-57 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Marc E Jungers 32% career 11-for-60 on dirt this meet (18%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Bull Dawgg 5-2, R11: Inflation 15-1 · Trainer R5: Diamond Cowgirl 123 8-1, R8: Rf Runaway Cowboy 5-1, R9: Barbed Wired 30-1, R11: Inflation 15-1

0/3 board here

Trending the wrong way on speed, 88 to 77 to 69. 3rd of 31 at 1F on Sep 3, in :11.40.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 58d ago

RECORD Not on the board in 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/18	LS	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	7th/9 -5L	69	35-1	b L	Antsy;bmp st
8/8	RET	1.81818f D	DbyTrl 10000	8th/9 -5½L	77	11-1	b L	Ducked out start
7/17	RET	1.81818f D	Alw n2l	2nd/8	88	1.5-1	b L	Out finished late

8Jlc Show TimeV. Urieta Jr. · L. HuitronUrieta Jr. · HuitronB93 89 93►≡@trip 955-1Fair 10-110%► Steady93 89 93 ≡@trip 95B

Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 89–95 · Best fig at today's trip 95 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 93 89 93

Jockey Victor Manuel Jr Urieta 19-for-105 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Lira Jesus Huitron 30% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Favorite Love Song 15-1, R3: Jj Kiss 4-1, R7: Aj Venom Player 6-5, R12: Chloes Man 15-1

WON LAST

Last start was a win, in a 10-horse optional claiming race at LS at 2.6-1. Worked 1F in :12.40 on Jul 22, 3rd of 10 at the distance.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 254 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/18	LS	1.59091f D	OC 25k	Won/10	93	2.6-1	b	Dueled;up late
8/22	RET	1.81818f D	rTQSirDbRG3 G3	8th/9 -3¾L	89	13-1	b	No threat
8/8	RET	1.81818f D	DbyTrl 10000	Won/9 by hd	93	1.8-1	b	Dueled; driving finish

9Dr Americas DynastyF. Calderon · K. ReedCalderon · ReedC89 87 86▲+7@trip 8715-1Fair 30-14%▲ Up +789 87 86@trip 87C

Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +7 · Best fig at today's trip 87 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 89 87 86

Jockey Francisco Calderon 37% career ★ 11-for-55 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Kash Reed 31% career ★ 8-for-36 on dirt this meet (22%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Fortyacres And Amule 5-1, R5: Shes Ec To Tempt 2-1, R6: Apollirevenge 3-1, R8: Holms 9-5 +4 more · Trainer R6: Apollirevenge 3-1, R8: Death Valley 20-1, R9: Dr Urban Cowboy 20-1, R9: Aj Cyclone 7-2 +5 more

60D LAYOFF

New trainer: Jed H Vane had it last time, Kash Reed now. A 83-day gap since its last race.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1F on Jun 15; 2 works in 30d

RECORD Francisco Calderon from post 9 here: 4 wins, 7 top-3 in 27 rides · 19% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/9	ALB	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	4th/8 -2L	89	3.4-1	b L	No rally
4/18	RP	1.81818f D	fsRPOKOakRG3 G3	5th/10 -¾L	87	10-1	b L	Trouble free trip
4/4	RP	1.81818f D	fsDbyTrl 15000	Won/8	86	1.3-1	b L	Strong reply to urge

10Full Moon DesireR. Castro · S. MendozaCastro · MendozaA94 103 100▼-3@trip 1002-1Fair 5-228%▼ Down -394 103 100@trip 100A1

Card model 28% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -3 · Best fig at today's trip 100 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 94 103 100

Jockey Ruben Castro 24% career 2-for-13 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Samuel Mendoza 32% career 1-for-7 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R11: Favorito Cartier 20-1 · Trainer R6: Lookatme Z 7-2, R11: Favorito Cartier 20-1

Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 103, with 101 next best. Has won 5 of 9 going today's distance.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 28d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/6	ALB	2f D	AllAmOak G1	4th/9 -1½L	94	0.6-1	b L	Eq Amb
8/9	ALB	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	Won/7	103	0.1-1	b L	Kept to task;
7/24	RET	1.81818f D	fsMsRetama S60k	2nd/10 by hd	100	5.3-1	b	Led; weakened late

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

LONE STAR PARK · RACE 4

UPCOMING

Trial

Field

10 runners

Purse

$10,000

Post

8:23 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#10 · 28%

Stakes, for fillies, 3-year-olds.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 400 Yards: 19.2

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #10 Full Moon Desire (a tactical type, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 94 · 103 · 100. Backup is #3 Wera C at 3-1. Use #6 Karma Cha Ching in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #10 FULL MOON DESIRE (2-1) — our number agrees.
#10 FULL MOON DESIRE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (26.9% to their 25.9%).
#3 WERA C — our #2 number, about right at the windows (21.4% to their 19.4%).
#6 KARMA CHA CHING — our #3 number, about right at the windows (19.0% to their 17.3%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Sin Tachas Favorite, #2 Mrs Pyc Painted Nova, #3 Wera C.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Sin Tachas Favorite2Mrs Pyc Painted Nova3Wera C4Dakota Stone5Flying Salty Cowgirl6Karma Cha Ching7Jess Good As Gold8Jlc Show Time9Dr Americas Dynasty10Full Moon Desire

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Sin Tachas Favorite

Mrs Pyc Painted Nova

Wera C

Dakota Stone

Flying Salty Cowgirl

Karma Cha Ching

Jess Good As Gold

Jlc Show Time

Dr Americas Dynasty

Full Moon Desire

Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

EXACTA / $.50 TRIFECTA / $.10 SUPERFECTA / DAILY DOUBLE

$.50 PICK 3 (RACES 4-5-6) / $.50 PICK 4 (RACES 4-5-6-7)

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

BET OPTIONS

WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta

Wagers offered on this race — analysis only, no stake sizing.