Pick sheet

Race 69:15 PM Trial

1.8F · Dirt · 9 entered. Our model's top pick, Apollirevenge, is 24% to win (morning line implies 20%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #1 Apollirevenge ML 3-1 Fair 3-1 Model #1 ▲ Up +6 · career best

Jockey F. Calderon · Trainer K. Reed · Dist 6: 4-1-1 · best fig at 1.81818f dirt 83 · 83 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/9	ALB	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	3rd/9 -1½L	96	2.9-1	b L	Rallied late;
4/18	RP	1.59091f D	EasyDate G2	2nd/10 by hd	95	7.6-1	b L	4w duel;outkickd
11/23	LA	1.81818f D	FutTrl6000	Won/10	83	0.4-1	b	Away well; romped

Case: Last out 3rd in the fDbyTrl 10000 at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 96-95-83. Best at today's distance 83. 4-for-6 at the distance. K. Reed / F. Calderon.

Knock: Off 83 days. Never raced at Lone Star Park.

Contender #4 Lookatme Z ML 7-2 Fair 7-2 Model #2 Top last-race fig ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best Lasix off

Jockey B. Candanosa · Trainer S. Mendoza · KEE 2: 0-1-0 · Dist 10: 2-4-2 · best fig at 1.81818f dirt 88 · 55 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/6	ALB	2f D	AllAmOak G1	2nd/9 -½L	98	12-1	b L	Chased; couldn't gain
8/9	ALB	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	Won/6	96	1.4-1	b L	Speed all the way;
12/20	EVD	1.81818f D	EVD Juv S25k	2nd/4	83	2.7-1	b L	Dueled; outkicked

Case: Last out 2nd in the fAllAmOak-G1 at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 98-96-83. Best at today's distance 88. 2-for-10 at the distance. 0-for-2 at Lone Star Park. S. Mendoza / B. Candanosa.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Use #5 Sunshining ML 4-1 Fair 5-1 Model #3 ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best Last out won in the Alw16500n3l at LS. Last Brisnet figures 98-86-88. Best at today's distance 98. 3-for-9 at the distance. 1-for-1 at Lone Star Park. C. Gandarilla / G. Linares. Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Jockey G. Linares · Trainer C. Gandarilla · KEE 1: 1-0-0 · Dist 9: 3-1-2 · best fig at 1.81818f dirt 98 · 21 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	LS	1.13636f D	Alw n3l	Won/10	98	4.0-1	b L	Held sway
8/16	ARP	1.81818f D	MileHiDby40k	3rd/9 -1L	86	2.1-1	b LB	Fought gamely
7/18	ARP	1.81818f D	ArpDstfChl31k	4th/7 -2L	88	3.2-1	b LB	Shied from whip;borein

Narrowing the field: A #4, #5, #8 · B #1, #6, #9 · C #2, #3, #7

R6 Lone Star Park · Trial

9:15 PM ET · 400 Yards Dirt · $10,000 · 9 runners9:15 PM · 1.8f Dirt · 9 runners

Upcoming $10K · Trial

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1ApollirevengeF. Calderon · K. ReedCalderon · ReedB96 95 83▲+6@trip 833-1Fair 3-124%▲ Up +6 · career best96 95 83@trip 83B1

Card model 24% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #1 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +6 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 83 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 96 95 83

Jockey Francisco Calderon 37% career ★ 11-for-55 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Kash Reed 31% career ★ 8-for-36 on dirt this meet (22%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Fortyacres And Amule 5-1, R4: Dr Americas Dynasty 15-1, R5: Shes Ec To Tempt 2-1, R8: Holms 9-5 +4 more · Trainer R4: Dr Americas Dynasty 15-1, R8: Death Valley 20-1, R9: Dr Urban Cowboy 20-1, R9: Aj Cyclone 7-2 +5 more

60D LAYOFF

Kash Reed takes over the training from Jed H Vane. Finished 3rd in a 9-horse race at ALB, beaten 1½ lengths.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1.5F on May 14; 1 work in 30d

RECORD Francisco Calderon from post 1 here: 6 wins, 17 top-3 in 50 rides · 19% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/9	ALB	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	3rd/9 -1½L	96	2.9-1	b L	Rallied late;
4/18	RP	1.59091f D	EasyDate G2	2nd/10 by hd	95	7.6-1	b L	4w duel;outkickd
11/23	LA	1.81818f D	FutTrl6000	Won/10	83	0.4-1	b	Away well; romped

2EyedealeR. Huerta · J. VazquezHuerta · VazquezC85 90 95►↕@trip 688-1Fair 30-13%► Steady85 90 95 ↕@trip 68C

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 68–95 · Best fig at today's trip 68 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 90 95

Jockey Roman Armando Huerta 14% career 2-for-21 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Juan L Vazquez 30% career 2-for-10 on dirt this meet (20%)

Also today · Trainer R1: Volador Red 9-2

60D LAYOFF

Figures have slipped: 95, 90, 85 over its last three. Last out was 6th, 2¼ lengths behind the winner, in a 6-horse race at ALB.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 17d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/9	ALB	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	6th/6 -2¼L	85	1.7-1	b L	No final kick;
6/28	ALB	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	2nd/8 by hd	90	13-1	b L	Vied throughout; game
3/15	RP	1½f D	Alw n2l	2nd/10 by nk	95	4.9-1	b L	Matchd steps;outnodded

3I B a Big GirlA. Rivera · J. StinebaughRivera · StinebaughC80 98 82▼▼-8@trip 9820-1Fair 30-13%▼▼ Big drop -880 98 82@trip 98C

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · Best fig at today's trip 98 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 98 82

Jockey Ali Rivera 34% career 10-for-93 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer John A Stinebaugh 36% career 10-for-65 on dirt this meet (15%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: The Dulce Tacha 12-1, R4: Dakota Stone 12-1, R5: Shes Judge Tee 15-1, R7: Catching Your Dreams 12-1 +5 more · Trainer R2: The Dulce Tacha 12-1, R4: Dakota Stone 12-1, R5: Shes Judge Tee 15-1, R5: Flies Like An Eagle 20-1 +7 more

60D LAYOFFJky 15/57 from post 3

Back after 106 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field. Class relief: allowance last time, stakes nongraded today.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS SHARP 1f in :11.80 on Mar 27 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

RECORD Ali Rivera from post 3 here: 15 wins, 36 top-3 in 57 rides · 17% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/17	RET	1.59091f D	Alw n3l	7th/10 -2½L	80	10-1	b L	No threat
5/21	HOU	1.81818f D	DbyTrl 10000	4th/7 -2½L	98	14-1	b L	Over kness; improved
5/9	HOU	1.59091f D	fsJnBuchnMem57k	9th/9 -3L	82	6.2-1	b L	Off slow; flipping rig

4Lookatme ZB. Candanosa · S. MendozaCandanosa · MendozaA98 96 83▲▲+10@trip 887-2Fair 7-223%▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best98 96 83@trip 88A2

Card model 23% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 88 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 98 96 83

Jockey Bryan Candanosa 36% career 4-for-26 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Samuel Mendoza 32% career 1-for-7 on dirt this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R3: Backed By Fame 10-1, R9: Dr Urban Cowboy 20-1 · Trainer R4: Full Moon Desire 2-1, R11: Favorito Cartier 20-1

Jky 8/33 from post 4

Purse drops from $694,186 to $10,000 against its last start. 2nd last time, ½ length back, in a field of 9.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 12d back

RECORD Bryan Candanosa from post 4 here: 8 wins, 15 top-3 in 33 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/6	ALB	2f D	AllAmOak G1	2nd/9 -½L	98	12-1	b L	Chased; couldn't gain
8/9	ALB	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	Won/6	96	1.4-1	b L	Speed all the way;
12/20	EVD	1.81818f D	EVD Juv S25k	2nd/4	83	2.7-1	b L	Dueled; outkicked

5SunshiningG. Linares · C. GandarillaLinares · GandarillaA98 86 88▲▲+11@trip 984-1Fair 5-116%▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best98 86 88@trip 98A3

Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 98 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 98 86 88

Jockey Gilberto Linares 33% career 8-for-57 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Chris Gandarilla 33% career 2-for-15 on dirt this meet (13%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Cowgirl Speed 8-1, R2: Coronas Famouscartel 20-1, R3: Prize Time Girl 15-1, R5: Di Kvn Waven 5-2 +3 more

WON LAST

Winner of a 10-horse allowance race at LS last time. Was running in allowance; today's stakes nongraded is an easier level on paper.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 239d back)

RECORD Gilberto Linares from post 5 here: 3 wins, 8 top-3 in 18 rides · 15% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	LS	1.13636f D	Alw n3l	Won/10	98	4.0-1	b L	Held sway
8/16	ARP	1.81818f D	MileHiDby40k	3rd/9 -1L	86	2.1-1	b LB	Fought gamely
7/18	ARP	1.81818f D	ArpDstfChl31k	4th/7 -2L	88	3.2-1	b LB	Shied from whip;borein

6Remarkable CowgirlS. Becerra Jr. · R. RamirezBecerra Jr. · RamirezB92 99 89►@trip 896-1Fair 6-114%► Steady92 99 89@trip 89B

Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 89 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 92 99 89

Jockey Sergio Jr Becerra 2-for-8 on dirt this meet (25%) · Trainer Raul Ramirez 32% career 5-for-28 on dirt this meet (18%)

Also today · Jockey R8: Hes No Politician 12-1, R9: Dragon Link 20-1, R12: Unleeshed 3-1 · Trainer R8: Hes No Politician 12-1, R9: Dragon Link 20-1, R10: Rr Royal Lew 20-1, R11: Mw Bullet Train 12-1 +1 more

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE

Tops the field on speed figures, a 99 against 98 for the next best. Changes barns, from Marco A Flores to Raul Ramirez.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Bumped start. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 112d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/6	ALB	2f D	AllAmOak G1	7th/9 -1¾L	92	18-1	b L	Bumped start
8/9	ALB	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	2nd/7 -1L	99	4.9-1	b L	Followed winner;
11/21	EVD	1.81818f D	FutTrl5000	2nd/8 by nk	89	4.6-1	b L	Game second

7Love Lies BleedinF. Giles · B. BolenGiles · BolenC87 86 80▲+4≡@trip 8412-1Fair 30-14%▲ Up +487 86 80 ≡@trip 84C
Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +4 · ≡ Steady figures 80–87 · Best fig at today's trip 84 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 87 86 80
Jockey Francisco Giles 29% career 3-for-52 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Bradley Bolen 27% career 3-for-44 on dirt this meet (7%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Six Pack In The Back 7-2, R3: The Hottest Chilitos 5-2, R7: Ss Special Cowgirl 6-1 · Trainer R1: Six Pack In The Back 7-2, R3: Backed By Fame 10-1
★ FASTEST WORK2/3 board here
Has moved up each time out, 80 to 86 to 87. The May 12 work, 1F in :11.80, was the best time at that distance that morning.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 79 days ago
RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 3 starts here
RECORD Francisco Giles from post 7 here: 2 wins, 11 top-3 in 36 rides · 9% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/24 LS 2f D Alw n3l 2nd/8 87 5.4-1 b L Outfinished wire
8/21 RET 1.36364f D Alw n3l 4th/10 -1¾L 86 5.0-1 b L No menace
12/20 EVD 1.81818f D sLQHBMilInv50k 4th/10 -1¼L 80 9.5-1 b L Late run

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/24	LS	2f D	Alw n3l	2nd/8	87	5.4-1	b L	Outfinished wire
8/21	RET	1.36364f D	Alw n3l	4th/10 -1¾L	86	5.0-1	b L	No menace
12/20	EVD	1.81818f D	sLQHBMilInv50k	4th/10 -1¼L	80	9.5-1	b L	Late run

8Where Is Queen BJ. Olivas · J. GonzalesOlivas · GonzalesA98 88 79▲▲+10@trip 989-2Fair 8-112%▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best98 88 79@trip 98A

Card model 12% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 98 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 98 88 79

Jockey Jesus Olivas 21% career 3-for-29 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer James Julian Ii Gonzales 27% career 1-for-18 on dirt this meet (6%)

Also today · Jockey R8: Heza Hawkeye 8-5, R10: Special Blu Hocks 20-1 · Trainer R10: Special Blu Hocks 20-1, R12: Cyber Blues 4-1

2/3 board here

New trainer: Rodolfo G Valles had it last time, James Julian Ii Gonzales now. A big drop, allowance to stakes nongraded, and worth asking why.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Feb 21 (1F in :12.00), 1 work in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/7	ALB	1½f D	Alw n3x	2nd/9 by hd	98	3.3-1	b L	Gamely; just missed
8/9	ALB	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	5th/8 -2L	88	1.3-1	b L	No final kick
5/30	RP	1.81818f D	HrtgPOak G2	8th/10 -3L	79	15-1	b L	Dancing at break

9Alluring Lil EagleRamirez Jr. · S. CoxRamirez Jr. · CoxB94 80 82▲▲+1220-1Fair 50-12%▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best94 80 82B

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #9 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · Last 3 figs 94 80 82

Jockey Jr Jr Ramirez 33% career · Trainer Shae L Cox 42% career ★ 5-for-25 on dirt this meet (20%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Big Contract 20-1, R3: El Rajas Fire 15-1, R5: Lonely Legacy 20-1 · Trainer R5: Lonely Legacy 20-1

60D LAYOFF

91 days since the last start, so it needs the works to say it's ready. Fastest 1F work of its morning on Mar 19 (:11.60), a sign it is training forwardly.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS SHARP 1f in :11.60 on Mar 19 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/1	RET	1.59091f D	sAlw18100n2l	3rd/9 by hd	94	11-1	L	Dueled; hung late
6/27	RET	1.36364f D	sMdSpWt	Won/8 by ½	80	2.0-1	L	Finished strong
6/4	HOU	1.36364f D	MSW	7th/10 -1L	82	7.0-1	L	False break; no threat

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

LONE STAR PARK · RACE 6

UPCOMING

Trial

Field

9 runners

Purse

$10,000

Post

9:15 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#1 · 24%

Stakes, for fillies, 3-year-olds.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 400 Yards: 19.2

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #1 Apollirevenge (a tactical type, M/L 3-1). Recent figures: 96 · 95 · 83. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #4 Lookatme Z at 7-2. Use #5 Sunshining in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #1 APOLLIREVENGE (3-1) — our number agrees.
#1 APOLLIREVENGE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (21.1% to their 19.5%).
#4 LOOKATME Z — our #2 number, about right at the windows (19.2% to their 17.4%).
#5 SUNSHINING — our #3 number, about right at the windows (16.8% to their 15.6%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Apollirevenge, #2 Eyedeale, #3 I B A Big Girl.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Apollirevenge2Eyedeale3I B A Big Girl4Lookatme Z5Sunshining6Remarkable Cowgirl7Love Lies Bleedin8Where Is Queen B9Alluring Lil Eagle

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Apollirevenge

Eyedeale

I B A Big Girl

Lookatme Z

Sunshining

Remarkable Cowgirl

Love Lies Bleedin

Where Is Queen B

Alluring Lil Eagle

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