Pick sheet

Race 1010:59 PM Trial

2F · Dirt · 9 entered. Our model's top pick, Royalist, is 41% to win (morning line implies 30%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #2 Royalist ML 8-5 Fair 7-5 Model #1 Top last-race fig ▲ Up +4

Jockey L. Vivanco · Trainer B. Olaveson · KEE 3: 2-1-0 · Dist 14: 7-4-0 · best fig at 2f dirt 98 · 21 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	LS	2f D	DshCshDbG2 G2	Won/9	98	1.2-1	b L	Held sway
9/18	LS	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	Won/8	88	0.2-1	b L	Brk in;drew clear
7/25	RET	1.81818f D	RetParkDby181k	Won/10	101	0.3-1	b L	Strong drive much best

Case: Last out won in the DshCshDbG2-G2 at LS. Last Brisnet figures 98-88-101. Best at today's distance 98. 7-for-14 at the distance. 2-for-3 at Lone Star Park. B. Olaveson / L. Vivanco.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #6 Dr Stone Cold ML 5-2 Fair 5-2 Model #2 ▲ Up +4

Jockey J. Pulido · Trainer K. Reed · Dist 9: 2-2-2 · best fig at 2f dirt 99 · 55 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/6	ALB	2f D	AllAmDbyG1 G1	6th/9 -1¾L	95	28-1	L	Came in start
8/9	ALB	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	Won/7	99	4.2-1	L	Sharp effort;
4/19	RP	1.81818f D	Alw n2l	2nd/10 -1L	91	2.1-1	L	No match;clr second

Case: Last out 6th/9 -1¾L in the AllAmDbyG1-G1 at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 95-99-91. Best at today's distance 99. 2-for-9 at the distance. K. Reed / J. Pulido.

Knock: Never raced at Lone Star Park.

Use #3 Kj Xquizit Jess ML 3-1 Fair 7-1 Model #3 ▲▲ Big jump +8 Last out 2nd in the DbyTrl 10000 at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 96-85-95. Best at today's distance 99. 3-for-8 at the distance. 1-for-1 at Lone Star Park. W. Giles / G. Medrano. Knock: Off 83 days. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey G. Medrano · Trainer W. Giles · KEE 1: 1-0-0 · Dist 8: 3-3-0 · best fig at 2f dirt 99 · 83 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/9	ALB	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	2nd/7 -1L	96	2.3-1	b L	Dueled; just missed;
6/28	ALB	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	5th/9 -1¾L	85	5.3-1	b L	Veered out start
5/24	ALB	1.81818f D	DbyTrl 10000	2nd/7	95	1.2-1	b L	Led late; outfinished

Narrowing the field: A #2, #3, #6 · B #1, #7, #8 · C #4, #5, #9

R10 Lone Star Park · Trial

10:59 PM ET · 440 Yards Dirt · $10,000 · 9 runners10:59 PM · 2f Dirt · 9 runners

Upcoming $10K · Trial

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Blackt OutF. Calderon · K. ReedCalderon · ReedB95 84 71▲▲+17↕20-1Fair 30-13%▲▲ Big jump +17 · career best95 84 71 ↕B

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +17 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 71–95 · Last 3 figs 95 84 71

Jockey Francisco Calderon 37% career ★ 11-for-55 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Kash Reed 31% career ★ 8-for-36 on dirt this meet (22%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Fortyacres And Amule 5-1, R4: Dr Americas Dynasty 15-1, R5: Shes Ec To Tempt 2-1, R6: Apollirevenge 3-1 +4 more · Trainer R4: Dr Americas Dynasty 15-1, R6: Apollirevenge 3-1, R8: Death Valley 20-1, R9: Dr Urban Cowboy 20-1 +5 more

WON LAST

Last start was a win, in a 9-horse maiden special weight race at LS at 3.2-1. Was running in maiden special weight; today's stakes nongraded is an easier level on paper.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 45d ago

RECORD Francisco Calderon from post 1 here: 6 wins, 17 top-3 in 50 rides · 19% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	LS	1.59091f D	MSW	Won/9	95	3.2-1	b L	Stmbld;bmpd;drw clr
6/21	PRM	1.59091f D	DbyTrl 8000	4th/9 -½L	84	61-1	b LB	Yielded late
3/14	RP	1.36364f D	MSW	5th/10 -1¾L	71	5.5-1	b L	Brief bid; outkicked

2RoyalistL. Vivanco · B. OlavesonVivanco · OlavesonA98 88 101▲+4@trip 988-5Fair 7-541%▲ Up +498 88 101@trip 98A1

Card model 41% · Fair odds 7-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +4 · Best fig at today's trip 98 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 98 88 101

Jockey Luis L Vivanco 36% career 10-for-77 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Ben Olaveson 14% career ★ 3-for-15 on dirt this meet (20%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Ab Special Dash 12-1, R7: First Memory 668 30-1

WON LAST6/9 board here

Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 109, with 101 next best. Runs for $10,000 today after a $168,400 race last time.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 206 days ago

RECORD 2 wins, 6 on the board from 9 starts here

RECORD Luis L Vivanco from post 2 here: 6 wins, 14 top-3 in 40 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	LS	2f D	DshCshDbG2 G2	Won/9	98	1.2-1	b L	Held sway
9/18	LS	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	Won/8	88	0.2-1	b L	Brk in;drew clear
7/25	RET	1.81818f D	RetParkDby181k	Won/10	101	0.3-1	b L	Strong drive much best

3Kj Xquizit JessG. Medrano · W. GilesMedrano · GilesA96 85 95▲▲+8@trip 993-1Fair 7-112%▲▲ Big jump +896 85 95@trip 99A3

Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · Best fig at today's trip 99 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 96 85 95

Jockey Gabriel Medrano 22% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet · Trainer Wesley T Giles 33% career 2-for-12 on dirt this meet (17%)

Also today · Jockey R5: Kj Flashing Candy 10-1, R11: Tga Cowboy 7-2 · Trainer R5: Kj Flashing Candy 10-1, R11: Tga Cowboy 7-2

60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK

3 wins from 8 starts at this distance. Beaten 1 length for 2nd in a 7-horse race at ALB.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS SHARP 1f in :11.40 on Jul 21 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/9	ALB	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	2nd/7 -1L	96	2.3-1	b L	Dueled; just missed;
6/28	ALB	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	5th/9 -1¾L	85	5.3-1	b L	Veered out start
5/24	ALB	1.81818f D	DbyTrl 10000	2nd/7	95	1.2-1	b L	Led late; outfinished

4Cobra Stone 77A. Rivera · J. StinebaughRivera · StinebaughC84 83 87▼-4@trip 8420-1Fair 30-13%▼ Down -484 83 87@trip 84C

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -4 · Best fig at today's trip 84 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 84 83 87

Jockey Ali Rivera 34% career 10-for-93 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer John A Stinebaugh 36% career 10-for-65 on dirt this meet (15%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: The Dulce Tacha 12-1, R4: Dakota Stone 12-1, R5: Shes Judge Tee 15-1, R6: I B A Big Girl 20-1 +5 more · Trainer R2: The Dulce Tacha 12-1, R4: Dakota Stone 12-1, R5: Shes Judge Tee 15-1, R5: Flies Like An Eagle 20-1 +7 more

Jky 13/47 from post 4

Fastest 1F work of its morning on Feb 17 (:12.20), a sign it is training forwardly. 6th last time, 2¼ lengths back, in a field of 9.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Feb 17 (1F in :12.20), 1 work in 30d

RECORD Ali Rivera from post 4 here: 13 wins, 31 top-3 in 47 rides · 17% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/18	LS	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	6th/9 -2¼L	84	18-1	b L	Mildly
7/25	RET	1.81818f D	RetParkDby181k	9th/10 -4½L	83	8.3-1	b L	No factor
7/3	RET	1.81818f D	DbyTrl 10000	Won/9	87	9.5-1	b L	Dueled; driving

5Special Blu HocksJ. Olivas · J. GonzalesOlivas · GonzalesC55 95 81▼▼-34↕20-1Fair 50-12%▼▼ Big drop -3455 95 81 ↕C

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -34 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 55–95 · Last 3 figs 55 95 81

Jockey Jesus Olivas 21% career 3-for-29 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer James Julian Ii Gonzales 27% career 1-for-18 on dirt this meet (6%)

Also today · Jockey R6: Where Is Queen B 9-2, R8: Heza Hawkeye 8-5 · Trainer R6: Where Is Queen B 9-2, R12: Cyber Blues 4-1

New trainer: Rodolfo G Valles had it last time, James Julian Ii Gonzales now. Gets a new rider, Jesus Olivas replacing Christian Cardenas.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Mar 31 (1F in :12.60), 0 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	ALB	1.81818f D	DbyTrl 8000	8th/8 -6¾L	55	19-1	b L	No threat
8/22	ALB	1.59091f D	MSW	2nd/10 -½L	95	3.7-1	b L	Bid; close thoughout
5/9	RP	1.81818f D	DbyTrl 10000	5th/7 -1¾L	81	3.7-1	b L	Second flight duel

6Dr Stone ColdJ. Pulido · K. ReedPulido · ReedA95 99 91▲+4@trip 995-2Fair 5-229%▲ Up +495 99 91@trip 99A2
Card model 29% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +4 · Best fig at today's trip 99 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 95 99 91
Jockey Juan Pulido 44% career ★ 8-for-31 on dirt this meet (26%), #2 of 54 · Trainer Kash Reed 31% career ★ 8-for-36 on dirt this meet (22%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R8: Death Valley 20-1, R9: Aj Cyclone 7-2, R11: Seven Summers Ago 8-1, R12: Holy Guacamolee 2-1 · Trainer R4: Dr Americas Dynasty 15-1, R6: Apollirevenge 3-1, R8: Death Valley 20-1, R9: Dr Urban Cowboy 20-1 +5 more
◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE
Purse drops from $1,079,992 to $10,000 against its last start. Changes barns, from Jed H Vane to Kash Reed.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 35d ago
RECORD Juan Pulido from post 6 here: 4 wins, 8 top-3 in 16 rides · 25% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/6 ALB 2f D AllAmDbyG1 G1 6th/9 -1¾L 95 28-1 L Came in start
8/9 ALB 2f D DbyTrl 10000 Won/7 99 4.2-1 L Sharp effort;
4/19 RP 1.81818f D Alw n2l 2nd/10 -1L 91 2.1-1 L No match;clr second

7Mm RampageG. Linares · C. LopezLinares · LopezB86 89 91▼-3≡@trip 916-1Fair 12-18%▼ Down -386 89 91 ≡@trip 91B

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -3 · ≡ Steady figures 86–91 · Best fig at today's trip 91 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 86 89 91

Jockey Gilberto Linares 33% career 8-for-57 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Carlos Lopez 26% career 3-for-32 on dirt this meet (9%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Cowgirl Speed 8-1, R2: Coronas Famouscartel 20-1, R3: Prize Time Girl 15-1, R5: Di Kvn Waven 5-2 +3 more · Trainer R2: Jess Revenge 9-5

Carlos Lopez takes over the training from S Trey Wood. Jockey switch: Ricky Ramirez last out, Gilberto Linares today.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 58d back)

RECORD Gilberto Linares from post 7 here: 2 wins, 6 top-3 in 22 rides · 15% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	LS	1.36364f D	OC 15k	6th/10 -1½L	86	1.0-1	b L	Needed kick
7/11	ALB	2f D	INS	6th/10 -2½L	89	12-1	b L	Bid; gave way
6/28	ALB	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	3rd/9 by hd	91	16-1	b L	Clear; drifted; empty

8Rr Royal LewO. Martinez · R. RamirezMartinez · RamirezB91 94 91►20-1Fair 99-11%► Steady91 94 91B
Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 91 94 91
Jockey Oliver E Martinez 33% career 9-for-101 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Raul Ramirez 32% career 5-for-28 on dirt this meet (18%)
Also today · Jockey R11: Mw Bullet Train 12-1 · Trainer R6: Remarkable Cowgirl 6-1, R8: Hes No Politician 12-1, R9: Dragon Link 20-1, R11: Mw Bullet Train 12-1 +1 more
2/3 board here
Worked 1F in :12.40 on Jul 2, 3rd of 11 at the distance. Oliver E Martinez takes over from Olvin Josue Martinez in the saddle.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 252d back)
RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 3 starts here
RECORD Oliver E Martinez from post 8 here: 3 wins, 6 top-3 in 34 rides · 12% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/9 LS 1½f D Alw b 8th/10 -3¼L 91 5.5-1 b L Bmpd sideways st
9/26 LS 1.36364f D OC 15k 2nd/10 -1L 94 21-1 b L Bmp st;short
8/8 RET 1½f D Alw n3l 2nd/6 -3L 91 6.2-1 b L Bid; second best

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	LS	1½f D	Alw b	8th/10 -3¼L	91	5.5-1	b L	Bmpd sideways st
9/26	LS	1.36364f D	OC 15k	2nd/10 -1L	94	21-1	b L	Bmp st;short
8/8	RET	1½f D	Alw n3l	2nd/6 -3L	91	6.2-1	b L	Bid; second best

9Big Daddys SecretG. Pina · R. SanchezPina · SanchezC76 82 90▼▼-1030-1Fair 99-1<1%▼▼ Big drop -1076 82 90C

Card model <1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · Last 3 figs 76 82 90

Jockey Garcia Rosendo E Pina 32% career 3-for-56 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Rodolfo Sanchez 34% career 2-for-19 on dirt this meet (11%)

Also today · Jockey R4: Flying Salty Cowgirl 30-1

180D+ LAYOFF2/3 board here

Back after 294 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field. Trending the wrong way on speed, 90 to 82 to 76.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

TROUBLED TRIP Bmp brk; traffic; no bid last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 22d back

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
1/10	SUN	1.59091f D	Alw n2l	7th/9 -3¾L	76	44-1	b L	Bmp brk;traffic;no bid
11/13	LS	1½f D	Alw n2l	9th/10 -2¼L	82	16-1	b L	Bmp st;no bid
10/18	LS	1.59091f D	sMdSpWt	Won/9	90	5.7-1	b L	Bmp brk;best

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

LONE STAR PARK · RACE 10

UPCOMING

Trial

Field

9 runners

Purse

$10,000

Post

10:59 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#2 · 41%

Stakes, for 3-year-olds.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 440 Yards: 21.03

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #2 Royalist (a tactical type, M/L 8-5). Recent figures: 98 · 88 · 101. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #6 Dr Stone Cold at 5-2. Use #3 Kj Xquizit Jess in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #2 ROYALIST (8-5) — our number agrees.
#2 ROYALIST — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (32.6% to their 29.9%).
#6 DR STONE COLD — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 25.5%, they've got 22.2%.
#3 KJ XQUIZIT JESS — our #3 number, about right at the windows (17.2% to their 19.4%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#6 DR STONE COLD — we make it 25.5%, the morning line works out to 22.2%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Blackt Out, #2 Royalist, #3 Kj Xquizit Jess.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Blackt Out2Royalist3Kj Xquizit Jess4Cobra Stone 775Special Blu Hocks6Dr Stone Cold7Mm Rampage8Rr Royal Lew9Big Daddys Secret

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Blackt Out

Royalist

Kj Xquizit Jess

Cobra Stone 77

Special Blu Hocks

Dr Stone Cold

Mm Rampage

Rr Royal Lew

Big Daddys Secret

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