| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4/17 | RP | 1.81818f D | Alw b | 2nd/9 by hd | 102 | 1.8-1 | b | Close up; outkickd |
| 11/15 | LS | 1.81818f D | TxClsFutG1 G1 | Won/10 | 97 | 2.4-1 | b | Clean trip;driving |
| 10/24 | LS | 1.81818f D | FutTrl10000 | Won/10 | 95 | 1.6-1 | b | Stp slw;tip out;surged |
| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/3 | LS | 1.81818f D | Alw nc | 5th/9 -2L | 92 | 3.0-1 | b | Needed kick |
| 5/30 | RP | 1.81818f D | HrtgPlDbG2 G2 | 3rd/9 -½L | 93 | 5.5-1 | b L | Clr lane;outfnshd |
| 5/9 | RP | 1.81818f D | DbyTrl 10000 | Won/7 | 90 | 1.6-1 | b L | Sharp;strait;spdy |
| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/9 | ALB | 2f D | DbyTrl 10000 | Won/9 | 98 | 1.6-1 | b L | Speed all the way; |
| 7/11 | ALB | 2f D | RainbDbyG1 G1 | 6th/10 -2L | 93 | 13-1 | b L | Never fired |
| 6/28 | ALB | 2f D | DbyTrl 10000 | 2nd/9 -1L | 94 | 15-1 | b L | Steady bid gaining |
| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/16 | LS | 1.59091f D | Alw n2l | 3rd/10 -2L | 88 | 0.6-1 | b L | Stumbled;bmpd |
| 8/9 | ALB | 2f D | DbyTrl 10000 | 3rd/7 -3L | 90 | 17-1 | b L | Drifted in; no rally; |
| 7/25 | ALB | 1.81818f D | Alw n1x | 2nd/9 -1½L | 88 | 1.5-1 | b L | Bid; held 2nd |
★ Distance horse: #2 Cyber Blues (4-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 101 from 4 tries. Not in our top three.
1Jackson Davis 747R. Ramirez · H. BaezaRamirez · BaezaC88 73 84▲+515-1Fair 20-14%
▲ Up +588 73 84CCard model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +5 · Last 3 figs 88 73 84
Jockey Ricky Ramirez 33% career 7-for-64 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Harvey Baeza 14% career 2-for-20 on dirt this meet (10%)Also today · Jockey R5: Flying Joy 1 3-1, R8: Rr Jess A Bit Evil 9-2, R9: La Chuchy 30-1 · Trainer R8: Rr Jess A Bit Evil 9-2Class relief: stakes last time, stakes nongraded today. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Stumbled brk; bmpd twic), and the figure already reflects it.WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 28d backRECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 4 starts hereRECORD Ricky Ramirez from post 1 here: 2 wins, 9 top-3 in 23 rides · 14% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/17 LS 1.59091f D Stk 41.2500k 4th/10 -2½L 88 12-1 b L Stumbled brk;bmpd twic 8/16 GIL 1.59091f D DbyTrl 9000 9th/10 -4¾L 73 16-1 b L Sloppy poor effort 7/18 GIL 1.59091f D Stk 35.0000k 3rd/10 by nk 84 13-1 b L Broke sharp all out dr 2Cyber Blues★F. Calderon · J. GonzalesCalderon · GonzalesA91 95 101▼-5@trip 1014-1Fair 6-115%
▼ Down -591 95 101@trip 101A★ Best at the trip 101Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -5 · Best fig at today's trip 101 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 91 95 101
★ Best at the trip 101Jockey Francisco Calderon 37% career ★ 11-for-55 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer James Julian Ii Gonzales 27% career 1-for-18 on dirt this meet (6%)Also today · Jockey R2: Fortyacres And Amule 5-1, R4: Dr Americas Dynasty 15-1, R5: Shes Ec To Tempt 2-1, R6: Apollirevenge 3-1 +4 more · Trainer R6: Where Is Queen B 9-2, R10: Special Blu Hocks 20-1★ FASTEST WORK2/3 board hereLast out was 2nd, ½ length behind the winner, in a 10-horse allowance race at LS. Trending the wrong way on speed, 101 to 95 to 91.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.WORKS SHARP 1.1f in :13.60 on Apr 22 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30dRECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 3 starts hereRECORD Francisco Calderon from post 2 here: 11 wins, 26 top-3 in 44 rides · 19% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/8 LS 1.81818f D Alw n2l 2nd/10 -½L 91 1.0-1 b L Improved late 9/6 ALB 2f D AllAmDbyG1 G1 7th/9 -2½L 95 73-1 b L Bobbled; came in 8/9 ALB 2f D DbyTrl 10000 3rd/8 -3L 101 16-1 b L Winner too tuff; 3San Fernando CreekLSA. Rivera · J. StinebaughRivera · StinebaughB88 90 88►≡@trip 9012-1Fair 12-17%
► Steady88 90 88 ≡@trip 90BLSCard model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 85–90 · Best fig at today's trip 90 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 88 90 88
LSLongshot read: 12-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 7% against a line of 6%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Ali Rivera 34% career 10-for-93 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer John A Stinebaugh 36% career 10-for-65 on dirt this meet (15%) ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R2: The Dulce Tacha 12-1, R4: Dakota Stone 12-1, R5: Shes Judge Tee 15-1, R6: I B A Big Girl 20-1 +5 more · Trainer R2: The Dulce Tacha 12-1, R4: Dakota Stone 12-1, R5: Shes Judge Tee 15-1, R5: Flies Like An Eagle 20-1 +7 moreJky 15/57 from post 3Beaten 2 lengths for 3rd in a 10-horse allowance race at LS. Drops from allowance to stakes nongraded.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Stumbled; bmpd. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 28d agoRECORD Ali Rivera from post 3 here: 15 wins, 36 top-3 in 57 rides · 17% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/16 LS 1.59091f D Alw n2l 3rd/10 -2L 88 0.6-1 b L Stumbled;bmpd 8/9 ALB 2f D DbyTrl 10000 3rd/7 -3L 90 17-1 b L Drifted in; no rally; 7/25 ALB 1.81818f D Alw n1x 2nd/9 -1½L 88 1.5-1 b L Bid; held 2nd 4Holy GuacamoleeJ. Pulido · K. ReedPulido · ReedA102 97 95▲▲+82-1Fair 9-535%
▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best102 97 95A1Card model 35% · Fair odds 9-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · Last 3 figs 102 97 95
Jockey Juan Pulido 44% career ★ 8-for-31 on dirt this meet (26%), #2 of 54 · Trainer Kash Reed 31% career ★ 8-for-36 on dirt this meet (22%) ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R8: Death Valley 20-1, R9: Aj Cyclone 7-2, R10: Dr Stone Cold 5-2, R11: Seven Summers Ago 8-1 · Trainer R4: Dr Americas Dynasty 15-1, R6: Apollirevenge 3-1, R8: Death Valley 20-1, R9: Dr Urban Cowboy 20-1 +5 more180D+ LAYOFFLASIX 1STFreshened 197 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look. Kash Reed takes over the training from Jed H Vane.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 16d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 4/17 RP 1.81818f D Alw b 2nd/9 by hd 102 1.8-1 b Close up; outkickd 11/15 LS 1.81818f D TxClsFutG1 G1 Won/10 97 2.4-1 b Clean trip;driving 10/24 LS 1.81818f D FutTrl10000 Won/10 95 1.6-1 b Stp slw;tip out;surged 5Capital HattersA. Medina · G. GonzalezMedina · GonzalezC84 85 72▲+430-1Fair 99-1<1%
▲ Up +484 85 72CCard model <1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +4 · Last 3 figs 84 85 72
Jockey Alejandro Medina 35% career 5-for-50 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Gilberto Gonzalez 31% career 1-for-36 on dirt this meet (3%) ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R1: Whiskey High 10-1, R7: Digital Dollar 30-1 · Trainer R5: Eagles A Bit Rusty 30-1, R7: Digital Dollar 30-1Was running in allowance; today's stakes nongraded is an easier level on paper. A 49-day gap since its last race.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 298d back)RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 5 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/12 LS 1.59091f D Alw n2l 4th/10 -½L 84 14-1 b L Lacked punch 8/16 GIL 1.59091f D DbyTrl 9000 6th/10 -2L 85 42-1 b L Contend early struggle 7/3 RET 1.81818f D DbyTrl 10000 8th/9 -5½L 72 43-1 b L No factor 6UnleeshedS. Becerra Jr. · R. RamirezBecerra Jr. · RamirezA98 93 94▲+7@trip 983-1Fair 5-116%
▲ Up +7 · career best98 93 94@trip 98A3Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +7 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 98 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 98 93 94
Jockey Sergio Jr Becerra 2-for-8 on dirt this meet (25%) · Trainer Raul Ramirez 32% career 5-for-28 on dirt this meet (18%)Also today · Jockey R6: Remarkable Cowgirl 6-1, R8: Hes No Politician 12-1, R9: Dragon Link 20-1 · Trainer R6: Remarkable Cowgirl 6-1, R8: Hes No Politician 12-1, R9: Dragon Link 20-1, R10: Rr Royal Lew 20-1 +1 more60D LAYOFFWON LASTNew trainer: Omar Vargas had it last time, Raul Ramirez now. Has won 4 of 11 going today's distance.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 24d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/9 ALB 2f D DbyTrl 10000 Won/9 98 1.6-1 b L Speed all the way; 7/11 ALB 2f D RainbDbyG1 G1 6th/10 -2L 93 13-1 b L Never fired 6/28 ALB 2f D DbyTrl 10000 2nd/9 -1L 94 15-1 b L Steady bid gaining 7Jess Hot ZG. Linares · J. StinebaughLinares · StinebaughB88 92 84►@trip 9215-1Fair 20-14%
► Steady88 92 84@trip 92BCard model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 92 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 88 92 84
Jockey Gilberto Linares 33% career 8-for-57 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer John A Stinebaugh 36% career 10-for-65 on dirt this meet (15%)Also today · Jockey R1: Cowgirl Speed 8-1, R2: Coronas Famouscartel 20-1, R3: Prize Time Girl 15-1, R5: Di Kvn Waven 5-2 +3 more · Trainer R2: The Dulce Tacha 12-1, R4: Dakota Stone 12-1, R5: Shes Judge Tee 15-1, R5: Flies Like An Eagle 20-1 +7 more★ FASTEST WORK2/4 board hereGilberto Linares takes over from Ali Rivera in the saddle. The Jun 12 work, 1F in :11.20, was the best time at that distance that morning.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.TROUBLED TRIP Awkward st; wknd last out; the speed figure already reflects it.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 214 days agoRECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 4 starts hereRECORD Gilberto Linares from post 7 here: 2 wins, 6 top-3 in 22 rides · 15% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/16 LS 1.36364f D Alw n2l 6th/9 -¾L — 0.7-1 b L Awkward st;wknd 9/12 LS 1.59091f D Alw n2l 3rd/10 -2L 88 0.8-1 b L Stmbld;improvd 8/9 ALB 2f D DbyTrl 10000 5th/8 -5L 92 31-1 b L Faded; 8Chloes ManV. Urieta Jr. · O. NunezUrieta Jr. · NunezC85 91 97▼-7@trip 8515-1Fair 30-13%
▼ Down -785 91 97@trip 85CCard model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -7 · Best fig at today's trip 85 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 91 97
Jockey Victor Manuel Jr Urieta 19-for-105 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Oscar Nunez 27% career 2-for-41 on dirt this meet (5%)Also today · Jockey R2: Favorite Love Song 15-1, R3: Jj Kiss 4-1, R4: Jlc Show Time 5-1, R7: Aj Venom Player 6-5 · Trainer R3: Prize Time Girl 15-1, R5: Di Kvn Waven 5-2★ FASTEST WORK2/3 board hereFigures have slipped: 97, 91, 85 over its last three. Fastest 1.5F work of its morning on May 28 (:17.00), a sign it is training forwardly.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 94d agoRECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 3 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/18 LS 2f D DbyTrl 10000 3rd/9 -1½L 85 4.1-1 b Bmp st;imprvd 8/22 RET 1.81818f D rTQSirDbRG3 G3 6th/9 -3L 91 8.8-1 b No menace 8/8 RET 1.81818f D DbyTrl 10000 2nd/8 -½L 97 10-1 b Dueled; game second 9ArgylesN. Duran · M. Chavez-GutierrezDuran · Chavez-GutierrezB92 93 90►≡@trip 737-2Fair 5-116%
► Steady92 93 90 ≡@trip 73B2Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 87–93 · Best fig at today's trip 73 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 92 93 90
Jockey Nestor Duran 40% career 3-for-24 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Marco Adair Chavez-Gutierrez 14% careerAlso today · Jockey R2: Jess Revenge 9-5, R3: Coronado Jess 7-2, R4: Karma Cha Ching 7-2 · Trainer R4: Wera C 3-12nd of 8 at 1F on Aug 1, in :12.00. A big drop, allowance to stakes nongraded, and worth asking why.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 77 days agoRECORD Nestor Duran from post 9 here: 2 wins, 10 top-3 in 30 rides · 15% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/3 LS 1.81818f D Alw nc 5th/9 -2L 92 3.0-1 b Needed kick 5/30 RP 1.81818f D HrtgPlDbG2 G2 3rd/9 -½L 93 5.5-1 b L Clr lane;outfnshd 5/9 RP 1.81818f D DbyTrl 10000 Won/7 90 1.6-1 b L Sharp;strait;spdy
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
LONE STAR PARK · RACE 12
UPCOMINGTrial
Stakes, for 3-year-olds.
Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.
● Breed: Quarter Horse
● Track record at 440 Yards: 21.03
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #4 Holy Guacamolee (a tactical type, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 102 · 97 · 95. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #9 Argyles at 7-2. Use #6 Unleeshed in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #4 HOLY GUACAMOLEE (2-1) — our number agrees.
- #4 HOLY GUACAMOLEE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (26.7% to their 25.6%).
- #6 UNLEESHED — our #3 number, about right at the windows (18.9% to their 19.2%).
- #9 ARGYLES — our #2 number, about right at the windows (17.7% to their 17.1%).
Model vs the morning line
- The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.
and works against #1 Jackson Davis 747, #2 Cyber Blues, #3 San Fernando Creek.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
EXACTA / $.50 TRIFECTA / $.10 SUPERFECTA / $.20 JACKPOT SUPER HI-FIVE
BET OPTIONS
WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta