Pick sheet
Race 1211:51 AM Trial
2F · Dirt · 9 entered. Our model's top pick, Holy Guacamolee, is 35% to win (morning line implies 26%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.
Top pick #4 Holy Guacamolee ML 2-1 Fair 9-5 Model #1 Top last-race fig ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best
Jockey J. Pulido · Trainer K. Reed · KEE 2: 2-0-0 · Dist 7: 4-1-1 · 197 days off
DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
4/17RP1.81818f DAlw b2nd/9 by hd1021.8-1bClose up; outkickd
11/15LS1.81818f DTxClsFutG1 G1Won/10972.4-1bClean trip;driving
10/24LS1.81818f DFutTrl10000Won/10951.6-1bStp slw;tip out;surged
Case: Last out 2nd in the Alw37190b at RP. Last Brisnet figures 102-97-95. 4-for-7 at the distance. 2-for-2 at Lone Star Park. K. Reed / J. Pulido.
Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1.81818f). Off 197 days.
Contender #9 Argyles ML 7-2 Fair 5-1 Model #2 ► Steady ≡ Steady 87–93
Jockey N. Duran · Trainer M. Chavez-Gutierrez · KEE 1: 0-0-0 · Dist 12: 4-2-1 · best fig at 2f dirt 73 · 28 days off
DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
10/3LS1.81818f DAlw nc5th/9 -2L923.0-1bNeeded kick
5/30RP1.81818f DHrtgPlDbG2 G23rd/9 -½L935.5-1b LClr lane;outfnshd
5/9RP1.81818f DDbyTrl 10000Won/7901.6-1b LSharp;strait;spdy
Case: Last out 5th/9 -2L in the Alw20000nc at LS. Last Brisnet figures 92-93-90. Best at today's distance 73. 4-for-12 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Lone Star Park. M. Chavez-Gutierrez / N. Duran.
Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.
Use #6 Unleeshed ML 3-1 Fair 5-1 Model #3 ▲ Up +7 · career best Last out won in the DbyTrl 10000 at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 98-93-94. Best at today's distance 98. 4-for-11 at the distance. 1-for-2 at Lone Star Park. R. Ramirez / S. Becerra Jr.. Knock: Off 83 days. Our model rates this one below its morning line.
Jockey S. Becerra Jr. · Trainer R. Ramirez · KEE 2: 1-1-0 · Dist 11: 4-2-1 · best fig at 2f dirt 98 · 83 days off
DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
8/9ALB2f DDbyTrl 10000Won/9981.6-1b LSpeed all the way;
7/11ALB2f DRainbDbyG1 G16th/10 -2L9313-1b LNever fired
6/28ALB2f DDbyTrl 100002nd/9 -1L9415-1b LSteady bid gaining
Longshot #3 San Fernando Creek ML 12-1 Fair 12-1 Model #5 ► Steady ≡ Steady 85–90
Jockey A. Rivera · Trainer J. Stinebaugh · KEE 2: 1-0-1 · Dist 11: 1-2-4 · best fig at 2f dirt 90 · 15 days off
DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
10/16LS1.59091f DAlw n2l3rd/10 -2L880.6-1b LStumbled;bmpd
8/9ALB2f DDbyTrl 100003rd/7 -3L9017-1b LDrifted in; no rally;
7/25ALB1.81818f DAlw n1x2nd/9 -1½L881.5-1b LBid; held 2nd
Case: Last out 3rd in the Alw16000n2l at LS. Last Brisnet figures 88-90-88. Best at today's distance 90. 1-for-11 at the distance. 1-for-2 at Lone Star Park. J. Stinebaugh / A. Rivera.
Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.
★ Distance horse: #2 Cyber Blues (4-1) has the best figure in the field at 2f dirt: 101 from 4 tries, record at the distance 14: 1-4-4. Not one of our picks.
Narrowing the field: A #2, #4, #6 · B #3, #7, #9 · C #1, #5, #8

R12 Lone Star Park · Trial

11:51 AM ET · 440 Yards Dirt · $10,000 · 9 runners11:51 AM · 2f Dirt · 9 runners

Upcoming $10K · Trial

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #2 Cyber Blues (4-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 101 from 4 tries. Not in our top three.

  1. 1Jackson Davis 747R. Ramirez · H. BaezaRamirez · BaezaC88 73 84▲+515-1Fair 20-14%▲ Up +588 73 84C

    Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +5 · Last 3 figs 88 73 84

    Jockey Ricky Ramirez 33% career 7-for-64 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Harvey Baeza 14% career 2-for-20 on dirt this meet (10%)
    Also today · Jockey R5: Flying Joy 1 3-1, R8: Rr Jess A Bit Evil 9-2, R9: La Chuchy 30-1 · Trainer R8: Rr Jess A Bit Evil 9-2

    Class relief: stakes last time, stakes nongraded today. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.

    PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
    TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Stumbled brk; bmpd twic), and the figure already reflects it.
    WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 28d back
    RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 4 starts here
    RECORD Ricky Ramirez from post 1 here: 2 wins, 9 top-3 in 23 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/17LS1.59091f DStk 41.2500k4th/10 -2½L8812-1b LStumbled brk;bmpd twic
    8/16GIL1.59091f DDbyTrl 90009th/10 -4¾L7316-1b LSloppy poor effort
    7/18GIL1.59091f DStk 35.0000k3rd/10 by nk8413-1b LBroke sharp all out dr
  2. 2Cyber Blues★F. Calderon · J. GonzalesCalderon · GonzalesA91 95 101▼-5@trip 1014-1Fair 6-115%▼ Down -591 95 101@trip 101A★ Best at the trip 101

    Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -5 · Best fig at today's trip 101 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 91 95 101

    ★ Best at the trip 101
    Jockey Francisco Calderon 37% career ★ 11-for-55 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer James Julian Ii Gonzales 27% career 1-for-18 on dirt this meet (6%)
    Also today · Jockey R2: Fortyacres And Amule 5-1, R4: Dr Americas Dynasty 15-1, R5: Shes Ec To Tempt 2-1, R6: Apollirevenge 3-1 +4 more · Trainer R6: Where Is Queen B 9-2, R10: Special Blu Hocks 20-1
    ★ FASTEST WORK2/3 board here

    Last out was 2nd, ½ length behind the winner, in a 10-horse allowance race at LS. Trending the wrong way on speed, 101 to 95 to 91.

    PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
    WORKS SHARP 1.1f in :13.60 on Apr 22 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d
    RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 3 starts here
    RECORD Francisco Calderon from post 2 here: 11 wins, 26 top-3 in 44 rides · 19% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/8LS1.81818f DAlw n2l2nd/10 -½L911.0-1b LImproved late
    9/6ALB2f DAllAmDbyG1 G17th/9 -2½L9573-1b LBobbled; came in
    8/9ALB2f DDbyTrl 100003rd/8 -3L10116-1b LWinner too tuff;
  3. 3San Fernando CreekLSA. Rivera · J. StinebaughRivera · StinebaughB88 90 88►≡@trip 9012-1Fair 12-17%► Steady88 90 88 ≡@trip 90BLS

    Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 85–90 · Best fig at today's trip 90 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 88 90 88

    LS

    Longshot read: 12-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 7% against a line of 6%. A read, not a bet.

    Jockey Ali Rivera 34% career 10-for-93 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer John A Stinebaugh 36% career 10-for-65 on dirt this meet (15%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R2: The Dulce Tacha 12-1, R4: Dakota Stone 12-1, R5: Shes Judge Tee 15-1, R6: I B A Big Girl 20-1 +5 more · Trainer R2: The Dulce Tacha 12-1, R4: Dakota Stone 12-1, R5: Shes Judge Tee 15-1, R5: Flies Like An Eagle 20-1 +7 more
    Jky 15/57 from post 3

    Beaten 2 lengths for 3rd in a 10-horse allowance race at LS. Drops from allowance to stakes nongraded.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Stumbled; bmpd. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.
    WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 28d ago
    RECORD Ali Rivera from post 3 here: 15 wins, 36 top-3 in 57 rides · 17% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/16LS1.59091f DAlw n2l3rd/10 -2L880.6-1b LStumbled;bmpd
    8/9ALB2f DDbyTrl 100003rd/7 -3L9017-1b LDrifted in; no rally;
    7/25ALB1.81818f DAlw n1x2nd/9 -1½L881.5-1b LBid; held 2nd
  4. 4Holy GuacamoleeJ. Pulido · K. ReedPulido · ReedA102 97 95▲▲+82-1Fair 9-535%▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best102 97 95A1

    Card model 35% · Fair odds 9-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · Last 3 figs 102 97 95

    Jockey Juan Pulido 44% career ★ 8-for-31 on dirt this meet (26%), #2 of 54 · Trainer Kash Reed 31% career ★ 8-for-36 on dirt this meet (22%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R8: Death Valley 20-1, R9: Aj Cyclone 7-2, R10: Dr Stone Cold 5-2, R11: Seven Summers Ago 8-1 · Trainer R4: Dr Americas Dynasty 15-1, R6: Apollirevenge 3-1, R8: Death Valley 20-1, R9: Dr Urban Cowboy 20-1 +5 more
    180D+ LAYOFFLASIX 1ST

    Freshened 197 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look. Kash Reed takes over the training from Jed H Vane.

    PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
    WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 16d back

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    4/17RP1.81818f DAlw b2nd/9 by hd1021.8-1bClose up; outkickd
    11/15LS1.81818f DTxClsFutG1 G1Won/10972.4-1bClean trip;driving
    10/24LS1.81818f DFutTrl10000Won/10951.6-1bStp slw;tip out;surged
  5. 5Capital HattersA. Medina · G. GonzalezMedina · GonzalezC84 85 72▲+430-1Fair 99-1<1%▲ Up +484 85 72C

    Card model <1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +4 · Last 3 figs 84 85 72

    Jockey Alejandro Medina 35% career 5-for-50 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Gilberto Gonzalez 31% career 1-for-36 on dirt this meet (3%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R1: Whiskey High 10-1, R7: Digital Dollar 30-1 · Trainer R5: Eagles A Bit Rusty 30-1, R7: Digital Dollar 30-1

    Was running in allowance; today's stakes nongraded is an easier level on paper. A 49-day gap since its last race.

    PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 298d back)
    RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 5 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/12LS1.59091f DAlw n2l4th/10 -½L8414-1b LLacked punch
    8/16GIL1.59091f DDbyTrl 90006th/10 -2L8542-1b LContend early struggle
    7/3RET1.81818f DDbyTrl 100008th/9 -5½L7243-1b LNo factor
  6. 6UnleeshedS. Becerra Jr. · R. RamirezBecerra Jr. · RamirezA98 93 94▲+7@trip 983-1Fair 5-116%▲ Up +7 · career best98 93 94@trip 98A3

    Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +7 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 98 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 98 93 94

    Jockey Sergio Jr Becerra 2-for-8 on dirt this meet (25%) · Trainer Raul Ramirez 32% career 5-for-28 on dirt this meet (18%)
    Also today · Jockey R6: Remarkable Cowgirl 6-1, R8: Hes No Politician 12-1, R9: Dragon Link 20-1 · Trainer R6: Remarkable Cowgirl 6-1, R8: Hes No Politician 12-1, R9: Dragon Link 20-1, R10: Rr Royal Lew 20-1 +1 more
    60D LAYOFFWON LAST

    New trainer: Omar Vargas had it last time, Raul Ramirez now. Has won 4 of 11 going today's distance.

    PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
    WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 24d ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    8/9ALB2f DDbyTrl 10000Won/9981.6-1b LSpeed all the way;
    7/11ALB2f DRainbDbyG1 G16th/10 -2L9313-1b LNever fired
    6/28ALB2f DDbyTrl 100002nd/9 -1L9415-1b LSteady bid gaining
  7. 7Jess Hot ZG. Linares · J. StinebaughLinares · StinebaughB88 92 84►@trip 9215-1Fair 20-14%► Steady88 92 84@trip 92B

    Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 92 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 88 92 84

    Jockey Gilberto Linares 33% career 8-for-57 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer John A Stinebaugh 36% career 10-for-65 on dirt this meet (15%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Cowgirl Speed 8-1, R2: Coronas Famouscartel 20-1, R3: Prize Time Girl 15-1, R5: Di Kvn Waven 5-2 +3 more · Trainer R2: The Dulce Tacha 12-1, R4: Dakota Stone 12-1, R5: Shes Judge Tee 15-1, R5: Flies Like An Eagle 20-1 +7 more
    ★ FASTEST WORK2/4 board here

    Gilberto Linares takes over from Ali Rivera in the saddle. The Jun 12 work, 1F in :11.20, was the best time at that distance that morning.

    PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
    TROUBLED TRIP Awkward st; wknd last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 214 days ago
    RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 4 starts here
    RECORD Gilberto Linares from post 7 here: 2 wins, 6 top-3 in 22 rides · 15% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/16LS1.36364f DAlw n2l6th/9 -¾L—0.7-1b LAwkward st;wknd
    9/12LS1.59091f DAlw n2l3rd/10 -2L880.8-1b LStmbld;improvd
    8/9ALB2f DDbyTrl 100005th/8 -5L9231-1b LFaded;
  8. 8Chloes ManV. Urieta Jr. · O. NunezUrieta Jr. · NunezC85 91 97▼-7@trip 8515-1Fair 30-13%▼ Down -785 91 97@trip 85C

    Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -7 · Best fig at today's trip 85 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 91 97

    Jockey Victor Manuel Jr Urieta 19-for-105 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Oscar Nunez 27% career 2-for-41 on dirt this meet (5%)
    Also today · Jockey R2: Favorite Love Song 15-1, R3: Jj Kiss 4-1, R4: Jlc Show Time 5-1, R7: Aj Venom Player 6-5 · Trainer R3: Prize Time Girl 15-1, R5: Di Kvn Waven 5-2
    ★ FASTEST WORK2/3 board here

    Figures have slipped: 97, 91, 85 over its last three. Fastest 1.5F work of its morning on May 28 (:17.00), a sign it is training forwardly.

    PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 94d ago
    RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/18LS2f DDbyTrl 100003rd/9 -1½L854.1-1bBmp st;imprvd
    8/22RET1.81818f DrTQSirDbRG3 G36th/9 -3L918.8-1bNo menace
    8/8RET1.81818f DDbyTrl 100002nd/8 -½L9710-1bDueled; game second
  9. 9ArgylesN. Duran · M. Chavez-GutierrezDuran · Chavez-GutierrezB92 93 90►≡@trip 737-2Fair 5-116%► Steady92 93 90 ≡@trip 73B2

    Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 87–93 · Best fig at today's trip 73 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 92 93 90

    Jockey Nestor Duran 40% career 3-for-24 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Marco Adair Chavez-Gutierrez 14% career
    Also today · Jockey R2: Jess Revenge 9-5, R3: Coronado Jess 7-2, R4: Karma Cha Ching 7-2 · Trainer R4: Wera C 3-1

    2nd of 8 at 1F on Aug 1, in :12.00. A big drop, allowance to stakes nongraded, and worth asking why.

    PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 77 days ago
    RECORD Nestor Duran from post 9 here: 2 wins, 10 top-3 in 30 rides · 15% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/3LS1.81818f DAlw nc5th/9 -2L923.0-1bNeeded kick
    5/30RP1.81818f DHrtgPlDbG2 G23rd/9 -½L935.5-1b LClr lane;outfnshd
    5/9RP1.81818f DDbyTrl 10000Won/7901.6-1b LSharp;strait;spdy

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks
1 2 3
Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair
The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?
The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72
Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕
≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★
Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips
Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
FINISHSTART440 YARDS · DIRT · mainstraight course

LONE STAR PARK · RACE 12

UPCOMING

Trial

Field
9 runners
Purse
$10,000
Post
11:51 AM ET
Pace
Pace Vacuum
Card model top pick
#4 · 35%

Stakes, for 3-year-olds.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 440 Yards: 21.03

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #4 Holy Guacamolee (a tactical type, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 102 · 97 · 95. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #9 Argyles at 7-2. Use #6 Unleeshed in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

  • Market favourite #4 HOLY GUACAMOLEE (2-1) — our number agrees.
  • #4 HOLY GUACAMOLEE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (26.7% to their 25.6%).
  • #6 UNLEESHED — our #3 number, about right at the windows (18.9% to their 19.2%).
  • #9 ARGYLES — our #2 number, about right at the windows (17.7% to their 17.1%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

  • The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Jackson Davis 747, #2 Cyber Blues, #3 San Fernando Creek.

Lead
none
Press
none
Stalk
none
Close
none
No style yet
1Jackson Davis 7472Cyber Blues3San Fernando Creek4Holy Guacamolee5Capital Hatters6Unleeshed7Jess Hot Z8Chloes Man9Argyles

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

1
Jackson Davis 747
0
2
Cyber Blues
0
3
San Fernando Creek
0
4
Holy Guacamolee
0
5
Capital Hatters
0
6
Unleeshed
0
7
Jess Hot Z
0
8
Chloes Man
0
9
Argyles
0
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