Pick sheet

Race 810:07 PM Trial

2F · Dirt · 8 entered. Our model's top pick, Heza Hawkeye, is 40% to win (morning line implies 30%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #1 Heza Hawkeye ML 8-5 Fair 3-2 Model #1 Top last-race fig ► Steady ≡ Steady 87–94

Jockey J. Olivas · Trainer S. Gonzales · Dist 11: 4-3-2 · 63 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/29	IND	1.81818f D	rQHRASSADby124k	Won/10	93	1.1-1	b L	Led; extended
8/8	IND	1.81818f D	DbyTrl 14000	2nd/9 by hd	94	0.6-1	b L	Brsh st;duel;denied
6/18	IND	1.81818f D	QHRAI Dby75k	2nd/10 -¾L	92	13-1	b L	Brushed st; held place

Case: Last out won in the rQHRASSADby124k at IND. Last Brisnet figures 93-94-92. 4-for-11 at the distance. S. Gonzales / J. Olivas.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1.81818f). Off 63 days.

Contender #2 Holms ML 9-5 Fair 3-1 Model #2 ► Steady

Jockey F. Calderon · Trainer J. Garcia · KEE 2: 0-0-1 · Dist 11: 4-1-1 · best fig at 2f dirt 89 · 63 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/29	ALB	1.81818f D	Alw nc	6th/10 -1¼L	89	2.9-1	b L	Even effort
8/1	ALB	1.81818f D	Alw nc	2nd/7	95	4.3-1	b	Speed;drew clear;DH
4/18	RP	1.81818f D	sDRpSoonR G1	9th/9 -3L	82	8.7-1	b	Broke behind field

Case: Last out 6th/10 -1¼L in the Alw38600nc at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 89-95-82. Best at today's distance 89. 4-for-11 at the distance. 0-for-2 at Lone Star Park. J. Garcia / F. Calderon.

Knock: Off 63 days. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Use #4 Rf Runaway Cowboy ML 5-1 Fair 7-1 Model #3 ▲ Up +5 ★ Best at 2f dirt: 93 ≡ Steady 86–93 Last out 3rd in the DshCshDbG2-G2 at LS. Last Brisnet figures 93-87-90. Best at today's distance 93. 3-for-13 at the distance. 2-for-5 at Lone Star Park. M. Jungers / R. Ramirez Jr.. Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Jockey R. Ramirez Jr. · Trainer M. Jungers · KEE 5: 2-1-2 · Dist 13: 3-4-2 · best fig at 2f dirt 93 · 21 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	LS	2f D	DshCshDbG2 G2	3rd/9 -1½L	93	5.0-1	b L	Wknd;held show
9/18	LS	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	Won/9	87	2.1-1	b L	Duel midway;prevailed
8/9	ALB	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	4th/7 -3L	90	3.9-1	b L	Best of others;

Longshot #7 Death Valley ML 20-1 Fair 20-1 Model #6 ▲ Up +3 ↕ Up and down 70–95 ▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (88 vs 95)

Jockey J. Pulido · Trainer K. Reed · KEE 1: 0-1-0 · Dist 7: 1-1-1 · 43 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/18	LS	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	2nd/10 -½L	88	3.3-1	b L	Improved late
3/21	LAD	1.59091f D	FNL	4th/9 -1¼L	95	1.9-1	b	Steady gain
2/24	LAD	1.59091f D	MDT	Won/10	91	2.6-1	b	Strong driving finish

Case: Last out 2nd in the Alw16000n2l at LS. Last Brisnet figures 88-95-91. 1-for-7 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Lone Star Park. K. Reed / J. Pulido.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1.81818f).

Narrowing the field: A #1, #4, #5 · B #2, #3, #7 · C #6, #8

Angles: #7 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (88 vs 95)

R8 Lone Star Park · Trial

10:07 PM ET · 440 Yards Dirt · $10,000 · 8 runners10:07 PM · 2f Dirt · 8 runners

Upcoming $10K · Trial

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Heza HawkeyeJ. Olivas · S. GonzalesOlivas · GonzalesA93 94 92►≡8-5Fair 3-240%► Steady93 94 92 ≡A1

Card model 40% · Fair odds 3-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 87–94 · Last 3 figs 93 94 92

Jockey Jesus Olivas 21% career 3-for-29 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Sebastian Gonzales 27% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R6: Where Is Queen B 9-2, R10: Special Blu Hocks 20-1 · Trainer R9: Eagle On A June Bug 8-5

60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

Comes in off a victory in a 10-horse race at IND. Runs for $10,000 today after a $124,145 race last time.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS SHARP 1f in :11.00 on Apr 1 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/29	IND	1.81818f D	rQHRASSADby124k	Won/10	93	1.1-1	b L	Led; extended
8/8	IND	1.81818f D	DbyTrl 14000	2nd/9 by hd	94	0.6-1	b L	Brsh st;duel;denied
6/18	IND	1.81818f D	QHRAI Dby75k	2nd/10 -¾L	92	13-1	b L	Brushed st; held place

2HolmsF. Calderon · J. GarciaCalderon · GarciaB89 95 82►@trip 899-5Fair 3-125%► Steady89 95 82@trip 89B2

Card model 25% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 89 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 89 95 82

Jockey Francisco Calderon 37% career ★ 11-for-55 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Jose A Garcia 32% career 2-for-33 on dirt this meet (6%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Fortyacres And Amule 5-1, R4: Dr Americas Dynasty 15-1, R5: Shes Ec To Tempt 2-1, R6: Apollirevenge 3-1 +4 more · Trainer R3: Coronado Jess 7-2, R5: Shes Ec To Tempt 2-1, R7: Aj Venom Player 6-5

60D LAYOFF

Changes barns, from Emilio Jr Cadena to Jose A Garcia. Drops from allowance to stakes nongraded.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 11d ago

RECORD Francisco Calderon from post 2 here: 11 wins, 26 top-3 in 44 rides · 19% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/29	ALB	1.81818f D	Alw nc	6th/10 -1¼L	89	2.9-1	b L	Even effort
8/1	ALB	1.81818f D	Alw nc	2nd/7	95	4.3-1	b	Speed;drew clear;DH
4/18	RP	1.81818f D	sDRpSoonR G1	9th/9 -3L	82	8.7-1	b	Broke behind field

3Hes No PoliticianS. Becerra Jr. · R. RamirezBecerra Jr. · RamirezB91 81 82▲▲+9@trip 9112-1Fair 20-14%▲▲ Big jump +991 81 82@trip 91B
Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · Best fig at today's trip 91 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 91 81 82
Jockey Sergio Jr Becerra 2-for-8 on dirt this meet (25%) · Trainer Raul Ramirez 32% career 5-for-28 on dirt this meet (18%)
Also today · Jockey R6: Remarkable Cowgirl 6-1, R9: Dragon Link 20-1, R12: Unleeshed 3-1 · Trainer R6: Remarkable Cowgirl 6-1, R9: Dragon Link 20-1, R10: Rr Royal Lew 20-1, R11: Mw Bullet Train 12-1 +1 more
60D LAYOFF3/3 board here
New trainer: Manuel Rodolfo Rodriguez had it last time, Raul Ramirez now. A 83-day gap since its last race.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS SHARP 1f in :12.00 on May 1 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d
RECORD On the board in all 3 starts here (1 win)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
8/9 ALB 2f D DbyTrl 10000 4th/9 -1¼L 91 22-1 b L Bid; tired;
2/1 LA 1.59091f D MDT 6th/8 -2¼L 81 2.7-1 L Ducked out start
11/13 LS 2f D MSW Won/10 82 0.9-1 L Lunged in;bmp;drw clr

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/9	ALB	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	4th/9 -1¼L	91	22-1	b L	Bid; tired;
2/1	LA	1.59091f D	MDT	6th/8 -2¼L	81	2.7-1	L	Ducked out start
11/13	LS	2f D	MSW	Won/10	82	0.9-1	L	Lunged in;bmp;drw clr

4Rf Runaway Cowboy★R. Ramirez Jr. · M. JungersRamirez Jr. · JungersA93 87 90▲+5≡@trip 935-1Fair 7-113%▲ Up +593 87 90 ≡@trip 93A★ Best at the trip 933

Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +5 · ≡ Steady figures 86–93 · Best fig at today's trip 93 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 93 87 90

★ Best at the trip 93

Jockey Raul Jr Ramirez 33% career 7-for-64 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Marc E Jungers 32% career 11-for-60 on dirt this meet (18%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R5: Diamond Cowgirl 123 8-1, R9: Barbed Wired 30-1 · Trainer R4: Jess Good As Gold 30-1, R5: Diamond Cowgirl 123 8-1, R9: Barbed Wired 30-1, R11: Inflation 15-1

4/5 board here

Runs for $10,000 today after a $168,400 race last time. Finished 3rd in a 9-horse race at LS, beaten 1½ lengths.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 58 days ago

RECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD Raul Jr Ramirez from post 4 here: 4 wins, 9 top-3 in 17 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	LS	2f D	DshCshDbG2 G2	3rd/9 -1½L	93	5.0-1	b L	Wknd;held show
9/18	LS	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	Won/9	87	2.1-1	b L	Duel midway;prevailed
8/9	ALB	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	4th/7 -3L	90	3.9-1	b L	Best of others;

5Rr Jess a Bit EvilR. Ramirez · H. BaezaRamirez · BaezaA91 81 80▲▲+129-2Fair 10-110%▲▲ Big jump +1291 81 80A

Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · Last 3 figs 91 81 80

Jockey Ricky Ramirez 33% career 7-for-64 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Harvey Baeza 14% career 2-for-20 on dirt this meet (10%)

Also today · Jockey R5: Flying Joy 1 3-1, R9: La Chuchy 30-1, R12: Jackson Davis 747 15-1 · Trainer R12: Jackson Davis 747 15-1

WON LAST

Has moved up each time out, 80 to 81 to 91. Last start was a win, in a 10-horse allowance race at EVD at 3.4-1.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 254d ago

RECORD Ricky Ramirez from post 5 here: 3 wins, 6 top-3 in 16 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	EVD	1.81818f D	Alw n2x	Won/10	91	3.4-1	b L	Driving finish
8/21	DED	1.81818f D	Alw b	6th/8 -2¼L	81	5.8-1	b L	Broke in; no threat
7/16	DED	1.13636f D	Alw n3l	9th/10 -2L	80	2.8-1	b L	Off slow; no kick

6Goldd CardA. Rivera · J. StinebaughRivera · StinebaughC74 76 94▼▼-10@trip 7430-1Fair 50-12%▼▼ Big drop -1074 76 94@trip 74C

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · Best fig at today's trip 74 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 76 94

Jockey Ali Rivera 34% career 10-for-93 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer John A Stinebaugh 36% career 10-for-65 on dirt this meet (15%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: The Dulce Tacha 12-1, R4: Dakota Stone 12-1, R5: Shes Judge Tee 15-1, R6: I B A Big Girl 20-1 +5 more · Trainer R2: The Dulce Tacha 12-1, R4: Dakota Stone 12-1, R5: Shes Judge Tee 15-1, R5: Flies Like An Eagle 20-1 +7 more

Jky 17/59 from post 6

Figures have slipped: 94, 76, 74 over its last three. Beaten 3½ lengths for 5th in a 9-horse race at LS.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Stumbled; bmp; need kick), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 100d ago

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

RECORD Ali Rivera from post 6 here: 17 wins, 33 top-3 in 59 rides · 17% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/18	LS	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	5th/9 -3½L	74	39-1	b L	Stumbled;bmp;need kick
8/21	RET	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	8th/10 -3½L	76	15-1	b L	Bumped both sides
10/16	LS	1½f D	MSW	Won/10	94	4.0-1	b L	Brshd st;drift;best

7Death Valley▼LSJ. Pulido · K. ReedPulido · ReedB88 95 91▲+3↕20-1Fair 20-14%▲ Up +388 95 91 ↕B▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (88 vs 95)LS
Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +3 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 70–95 · Last 3 figs 88 95 91
▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (88 vs 95)LS
Longshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 4% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Juan Pulido 44% career ★ 8-for-31 on dirt this meet (26%), #2 of 54 · Trainer Kash Reed 31% career ★ 8-for-36 on dirt this meet (22%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R9: Aj Cyclone 7-2, R10: Dr Stone Cold 5-2, R11: Seven Summers Ago 8-1, R12: Holy Guacamolee 2-1 · Trainer R4: Dr Americas Dynasty 15-1, R6: Apollirevenge 3-1, R9: Dr Urban Cowboy 20-1, R9: Aj Cyclone 7-2 +5 more
2nd of 23 at 1F on Sep 2, in :12.60. Was running in allowance; today's stakes nongraded is an easier level on paper.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 59d ago
RECORD Juan Pulido from post 7 here: 4 wins, 6 top-3 in 15 rides · 25% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/18 LS 1.36364f D Alw n2l 2nd/10 -½L 88 3.3-1 b L Improved late
3/21 LAD 1.59091f D FNL 4th/9 -1¼L 95 1.9-1 b Steady gain
2/24 LAD 1.59091f D MDT Won/10 91 2.6-1 b Strong driving finish

8Brother GagaN. Villatoro · J. SanchezVillatoro · SanchezC85 85 72►↕@trip 8520-1Fair 50-12%► Steady85 85 72 ↕@trip 85C

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 72–101 · Best fig at today's trip 85 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 85 72

Jockey Noe Villatoro 30% career 11-for-63 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Jose Luis Iii Sanchez 34% career 5-for-47 on dirt this meet (11%)

Also today · Jockey R2: A Higher Call 15-1, R7: Cr Favorite Lady 8-1 · Trainer R1: Bull Dawgg 5-2

2/4 board here

Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 101, with 98 next best. Runs for $10,000 today after a $168,400 race last time.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Lil stumble; luggd in. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 61d ago

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 4 starts here

RECORD Noe Villatoro from post 8 here: 2 wins, 8 top-3 in 27 rides · 8% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	LS	2f D	DshCshDbG2 G2	7th/9 -5L	85	43-1	b	Lil stumble;luggd in
9/18	LS	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	2nd/8 -2L	85	25-1	b	Gaining late
7/3	RET	1.81818f D	DbyTrl 10000	6th/9 -5L	72	15-1	b	Bobbled;bump both side

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

LONE STAR PARK · RACE 8

UPCOMING

Trial

Field

8 runners

Purse

$10,000

Post

10:07 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#1 · 40%

Stakes, for 3-year-olds.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 440 Yards: 21.03

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #1 Heza Hawkeye (a tactical type, M/L 8-5). Recent figures: 93 · 94 · 92. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #2 Holms at 9-5. Use #4 Rf Runaway Cowboy in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #1 HEZA HAWKEYE (8-5) — our number agrees.
#1 HEZA HAWKEYE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (31.6% to their 29.7%).
#2 HOLMS — our #2 number, about right at the windows (27.8% to their 27.6%).
#4 RF RUNAWAY COWBOY — our #3 number, about right at the windows (13.1% to their 12.9%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Heza Hawkeye, #2 Holms, #3 Hes No Politician.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Heza Hawkeye2Holms3Hes No Politician4Rf Runaway Cowboy5Rr Jess A Bit Evil6Goldd Card7Death Valley8Brother Gaga

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Heza Hawkeye

Holms

Hes No Politician

Rf Runaway Cowboy

Rr Jess A Bit Evil

Goldd Card

Death Valley

Brother Gaga

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Bet types

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