Pick sheet

Race 910:33 PM TrialLate Pick 4 starts

2F · Dirt · 9 entered. Our model's top pick, Eagle on a June Bug, is 36% to win (morning line implies 29%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #5 Eagle on a June Bug ML 8-5 Fair 9-5 Model #1 ▼ Down -5

Jockey C. Cardenas · Trainer S. Gonzales · KEE 3: 2-0-0 · Dist 12: 6-3-0 · best fig at 2f dirt 102 · 54 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/7	ALB	2f D	AlAmGdCp G1	4th/10 -1½L	102	7.2-1	b L	Ducked in;impeded foe
6/13	HOU	1.81818f D	SmHouDbyG3 G3	Won/10 by hd	112	2.1-1	b L	Dueled; driving finish
5/21	HOU	1.81818f D	DbyTrl 10000	2nd/9	114	0.5-1	b L	Early speed;naild wire

Case: Last out 4th/10 -1½L in the AlAmGdCp-G1 at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 102-112-114. Best at today's distance 102. 6-for-12 at the distance. 2-for-3 at Lone Star Park. S. Gonzales / C. Cardenas.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #9 Aj Cyclone ML 7-2 Fair 4-1 Model #2 Top last-race fig ▲▲ Big jump +20 · career best ↕ Up and down 73–103

Jockey J. Pulido · Trainer K. Reed · Dist 9: 2-2-2 · 224 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
3/21	LAD	1.59091f D	FNL	Won/9	103	2.3-1	b	Drift out; much best
2/24	LAD	1.59091f D	MDT	Won/8	90	1.5-1	b	Gate to wire
11/23	LA	1.81818f D	FutTrl6000	6th/10 -2½L	73	1.6-1	b	Rough start; willingly

Case: Last out won in the FNL at LAD. Last Brisnet figures 103-90-73. 2-for-9 at the distance. K. Reed / J. Pulido.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1.81818f). Off 224 days.

Use #4 Point Blank Range ML 4-1 Fair 9-2 Model #3 ▲ Up +7 ↕ Up and down 75–96 Last out 5th/8 -1¼L in the AllAmerInv100k at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 94-96-75. Best at today's distance 96. 5-for-9 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Lone Star Park. D. Keener / R. Cruz. Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Jockey R. Cruz · Trainer D. Keener · KEE 1: 0-1-0 · Dist 9: 5-1-1 · best fig at 2f dirt 96 · 55 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/6	ALB	2f D	AllAmerInv100k	5th/8 -1¼L	94	5.1-1	b L	Bumpe strt;carried out
8/9	ALB	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	Won/9	96	0.7-1	b L	Stiff drive;
7/11	ALB	2f D	RainbDbyG1 G1	10th/10 -4½L	75	17-1	b L	Lugged out; faded

Narrowing the field: A #4, #5, #9 · B #1, #3, #7 · C #2, #6, #8

Angles: #8 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (77 vs 93)

R9 Lone Star Park · Trial

10:33 PM ET · 440 Yards Dirt · $10,000 · 9 runners10:33 PM · 2f Dirt · 9 runners

Upcoming $10K · Trial

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Eagles DiamondA. Rivera · J. StinebaughRivera · StinebaughB93 95 85►@trip 959-2Fair 8-111%► Steady93 95 85@trip 95B

Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 95 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 93 95 85

Jockey Ali Rivera 34% career 10-for-93 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer John A Stinebaugh 36% career 10-for-65 on dirt this meet (15%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: The Dulce Tacha 12-1, R4: Dakota Stone 12-1, R5: Shes Judge Tee 15-1, R6: I B A Big Girl 20-1 +5 more · Trainer R2: The Dulce Tacha 12-1, R4: Dakota Stone 12-1, R5: Shes Judge Tee 15-1, R5: Flies Like An Eagle 20-1 +7 more

WON LAST5/5 board here

Winner of a 10-horse allowance race at LS last time. Class relief: allowance last time, stakes nongraded today.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 39 days ago

RECORD On the board in all 5 starts here (2 wins)

RECORD Ali Rivera from post 1 here: 6 wins, 28 top-3 in 48 rides · 17% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/8	LS	1.81818f D	Alw n2l	Won/10	93	1.3-1	b L	Brk in;edged away
8/9	ALB	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	5th/9 -1¼L	95	17-1	b L	No threat;
6/28	ALB	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	6th/8 -2L	85	7.0-1	b L	Bumpd both sides start

2Dr Urban CowboyB. Candanosa · K. ReedCandanosa · ReedC81 94 88▼-6@trip 9420-1Fair 30-13%▼ Down -681 94 88@trip 94C

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -6 · Best fig at today's trip 94 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 94 88

Jockey Bryan Candanosa 36% career 4-for-26 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Kash Reed 31% career ★ 8-for-36 on dirt this meet (22%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R3: Backed By Fame 10-1, R6: Lookatme Z 7-2 · Trainer R4: Dr Americas Dynasty 15-1, R6: Apollirevenge 3-1, R8: Death Valley 20-1, this race: Aj Cyclone 7-2 +5 more

★ FASTEST WORK

Was running in allowance; today's stakes nongraded is an easier level on paper. The Jul 11 work, 1F in :11.60, was the best time at that distance that morning.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1F on Jul 11; 0 works in 30d

RECORD Bryan Candanosa from post 2 here: 6 wins, 21 top-3 in 33 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/24	LS	2f D	Alw n3l	5th/8 -¾L	81	1.4-1	b L	Bmp st;lacked punch
8/9	ALB	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	6th/9 -1¾L	94	13-1	b L	Equine ambulance
4/4	RP	1.81818f D	sDbyTrl 15000	5th/9 by hd	88	2.7-1	b L	Off sharp; eclipsed

3Dragon LinkS. Becerra Jr. · R. RamirezBecerra Jr. · RamirezB91 75 88▲+6@trip 9920-1Fair 50-12%▲ Up +691 75 88@trip 99B

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +6 · Best fig at today's trip 99 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 91 75 88

Jockey Sergio Jr Becerra 2-for-8 on dirt this meet (25%) · Trainer Raul Ramirez 32% career 5-for-28 on dirt this meet (18%)

Also today · Jockey R6: Remarkable Cowgirl 6-1, R8: Hes No Politician 12-1, R12: Unleeshed 3-1 · Trainer R6: Remarkable Cowgirl 6-1, R8: Hes No Politician 12-1, R10: Rr Royal Lew 20-1, R11: Mw Bullet Train 12-1 +1 more

60D LAYOFF

Changes barns, from Manuel Rodolfo Rodriguez to Raul Ramirez. Off 83 days since the last start.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 32 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/9	ALB	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	7th/8 -2¼L	91	56-1	b	Faded;
11/23	LA	1.81818f D	FutTrl6000	5th/10 -1¾L	75	1.7-1	b	Drift erly;needed more
10/25	LA	1.36364f D	MSW	Won/8 by hd	88	0.5-1	b	Brk out/bpd;best late

4Point Blank RangeR. Cruz · D. KeenerCruz · KeenerA94 96 75▲+7↕@trip 964-1Fair 9-218%▲ Up +794 96 75 ↕@trip 96A3

Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +7 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 75–96 · Best fig at today's trip 96 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 94 96 75

Jockey Roman Cruz 33% career 3-for-8 on dirt this meet (38%), #1 of 54 · Trainer Dee Keener 35% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R11: Jc Speeding 5-2 · Trainer R11: Jc Speeding 5-2

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE

5 wins from 9 starts at this distance. Purse drops from $100,000 to $10,000 against its last start.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

TROUBLED TRIP Bumpe strt; carried out last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1F on Aug 24; 0 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/6	ALB	2f D	AllAmerInv100k	5th/8 -1¼L	94	5.1-1	b L	Bumpe strt;carried out
8/9	ALB	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	Won/9	96	0.7-1	b L	Stiff drive;
7/11	ALB	2f D	RainbDbyG1 G1	10th/10 -4½L	75	17-1	b L	Lugged out; faded

5Eagle on a June BugC. Cardenas · S. GonzalesCardenas · GonzalesA102 112 114▼-5@trip 1028-5Fair 9-536%▼ Down -5102 112 114@trip 102A1

Card model 36% · Fair odds 9-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -5 · Best fig at today's trip 102 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 102 112 114

Jockey Christian Cardenas 32% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Sebastian Gonzales 27% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet

Also today · Trainer R8: Heza Hawkeye 8-5

2/3 board here

Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 114, with 103 next best. Figures have slipped: 114, 112, 102 over its last three.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Ducked in; impeded foe), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 18d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/7	ALB	2f D	AlAmGdCp G1	4th/10 -1½L	102	7.2-1	b L	Ducked in;impeded foe
6/13	HOU	1.81818f D	SmHouDbyG3 G3	Won/10 by hd	112	2.1-1	b L	Dueled; driving finish
5/21	HOU	1.81818f D	DbyTrl 10000	2nd/9	114	0.5-1	b L	Early speed;naild wire

6Barbed WiredR. Ramirez Jr. · M. JungersRamirez Jr. · JungersC88 72 91▲+6@trip 9130-1Fair 99-11%▲ Up +688 72 91@trip 91C
Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +6 · Best fig at today's trip 91 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 88 72 91
Jockey Raul Jr Ramirez 33% career 7-for-64 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Marc E Jungers 32% career 11-for-60 on dirt this meet (18%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R5: Diamond Cowgirl 123 8-1, R8: Rf Runaway Cowboy 5-1 · Trainer R4: Jess Good As Gold 30-1, R5: Diamond Cowgirl 123 8-1, R8: Rf Runaway Cowboy 5-1, R11: Inflation 15-1
WON LAST
Comes in off a victory in a 10-horse maiden special weight race at LS. Worked 1F in :12.20 on Mar 25, 2nd of 30 at the distance.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 59d back)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/1 LS 2f D MSW Won/10 88 0.5-1 b L Drew ahead;held
9/18 LS 2f D DbyTrl 10000 7th/8 -7L 72 9.8-1 b L Step slow;mildly
8/9 ALB 2f D DbyTrl 10000 5th/8 -1¾L 91 61-1 b L Bid; tired;

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/1	LS	2f D	MSW	Won/10	88	0.5-1	b L	Drew ahead;held
9/18	LS	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	7th/8 -7L	72	9.8-1	b L	Step slow;mildly
8/9	ALB	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	5th/8 -1¾L	91	61-1	b L	Bid; tired;

7Whos the VF. Calderon · J. NunezCalderon · NunezB87 96 71►↕@trip 875-1Fair 12-18%► Steady87 96 71 ↕@trip 87B

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 71–96 · Best fig at today's trip 87 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 87 96 71

Jockey Francisco Calderon 37% career ★ 11-for-55 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Jesus Nunez 27% career 1-for-2 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Fortyacres And Amule 5-1, R4: Dr Americas Dynasty 15-1, R5: Shes Ec To Tempt 2-1, R6: Apollirevenge 3-1 +4 more

60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK

Freshened 125 days. Watch how its recent works look. Jesus Nunez takes over the training from Raymond G Valerio.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

TROUBLED TRIP Impeded start last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1F on Oct 13; 1 work in 30d

RECORD Francisco Calderon from post 7 here: 3 wins, 12 top-3 in 31 rides · 19% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
6/28	ALB	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	4th/9 -2¼L	87	2.0-1	b	Impeded start
5/24	ALB	1.81818f D	DbyTrl 10000	Won/7 by hd	96	0.9-1	b L	Steady bid; up late
12/14	LA	1.81818f D	2MillFutG1 G1	10th/10 -3½L	71	41-1	b	Rough st;clip heels

8La Chuchy▼R. Ramirez · S. WoodRamirez · WoodC77 93 79▼-630-1Fair 99-11%▼ Down -677 93 79C▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (77 vs 93)

Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -6 · Last 3 figs 77 93 79

▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (77 vs 93)

Jockey Ricky Ramirez 33% career 7-for-64 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer S Trey Wood 28% career 4-for-44 on dirt this meet (9%)

Also today · Jockey R5: Flying Joy 1 3-1, R8: Rr Jess A Bit Evil 9-2, R12: Jackson Davis 747 15-1 · Trainer R4: Sin Tachas Favorite 20-1, R5: Flying Joy 1 3-1, R7: Famous Ms Sashay 3-1

Was running in allowance; today's stakes nongraded is an easier level on paper. Last out was 8th, 1¼ lengths behind the winner, in an 8-horse allowance race at LS.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 58d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	LS	1.81818f D	Alw n2l	8th/8 -1¼L	77	0.7-1	b L	Brk in;wknd
5/10	RP	1.81818f D	DbyTrl 10000	2nd/7 by hd	93	20-1	b L	Close up;outdueled
4/16	RP	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	6th/9 -2½L	79	3.8-1	b L	Lacked response

9Aj CycloneJ. Pulido · K. ReedPulido · ReedA103 90 73▲▲+20↕7-2Fair 4-119%▲▲ Big jump +20 · career best103 90 73 ↕A2

Card model 19% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +20 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 73–103 · Last 3 figs 103 90 73

Jockey Juan Pulido 44% career ★ 8-for-31 on dirt this meet (26%), #2 of 54 · Trainer Kash Reed 31% career ★ 8-for-36 on dirt this meet (22%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R8: Death Valley 20-1, R10: Dr Stone Cold 5-2, R11: Seven Summers Ago 8-1, R12: Holy Guacamolee 2-1 · Trainer R4: Dr Americas Dynasty 15-1, R6: Apollirevenge 3-1, R8: Death Valley 20-1, this race: Dr Urban Cowboy 20-1 +5 more

180D+ LAYOFFLASIX 1STWON LAST

224 days since the last start, the longest layoff in here, so it needs the works to say it's ready. Has moved up each time out, 73 to 90 to 103.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

SHARP LAST OUT Chart comment from the last start: Drift out; much best.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1.5F on May 17; 1 work in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
3/21	LAD	1.59091f D	FNL	Won/9	103	2.3-1	b	Drift out; much best
2/24	LAD	1.59091f D	MDT	Won/8	90	1.5-1	b	Gate to wire
11/23	LA	1.81818f D	FutTrl6000	6th/10 -2½L	73	1.6-1	b	Rough start; willingly

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

LONE STAR PARK · RACE 9

UPCOMING

Trial

Field

9 runners

Purse

$10,000

Post

10:33 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#5 · 36%

Stakes, for 3-year-olds.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 440 Yards: 21.03

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #5 Eagle On A June Bug (a tactical type, M/L 8-5). Recent figures: 102 · 112 · 114. Backup is #9 Aj Cyclone at 7-2. Use #4 Point Blank Range in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #5 EAGLE ON A JUNE BUG (8-5) — our number agrees.
#5 EAGLE ON A JUNE BUG — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (29.4% to their 29.2%).
#9 AJ CYCLONE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (18.9% to their 16.9%).
#4 POINT BLANK RANGE — our #3 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 17.6%, they've got 15.2%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#4 POINT BLANK RANGE — we make it 17.6%, the morning line works out to 15.2%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Eagles Diamond, #2 Dr Urban Cowboy, #3 Dragon Link.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Eagles Diamond2Dr Urban Cowboy3Dragon Link4Point Blank Range5Eagle On A June Bug6Barbed Wired7Whos The V8La Chuchy9Aj Cyclone

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Eagles Diamond

Dr Urban Cowboy

Dragon Link

Point Blank Range

Eagle On A June Bug

Barbed Wired

Whos The V

La Chuchy

Aj Cyclone

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