R5 Remington Park · Claiming $20,000

9:22 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $22,000 · 10 runners9:22 PM · 6f Dirt · 10 runners

Upcoming $22K · Claiming $20,000

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles
  1. 1MckinsenseR. Vazquez · S. MartinVazquez · MartinB71 80 68▼-3@trip 836-1Fair 10-19%▼ Down -371 80 68@trip 83B

    Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -3 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 80 68

    Jockey R A Vazquez 33% career 13-for-70 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Steve Martin 28% career 1-for-16 on dirt this meet (6%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Close Call 3-1, R3: Epic Selloff 6-1, R6: Let's Go Mark 7-2, R7: U. S. Army 6-1 +2 more
    CLASS UPWON LAST

    Comes in off a victory in a 9-horse maiden claiming $20,000 race at RP. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.

    PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 52d ago
    RECORD R A Vazquez from post 1 here: 18 wins, 31 top-3 in 52 rides · 26% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/8RP5½f DMCL 20kWon/9710.3-1b LStalk; 4w; prevailed
    9/24RP6f DMCL 7k2nd/9 -1L801.1-1b LVied 2w; duel; hung
    8/23ELP6f DMCL 16kv5th/7 -4L684.9-1b LStalk ins;chsd;gave wy
  2. 2Spooky Action▼▼LSJ. Padron-Barcenas · J. PetalinoPadron-Barcenas · PetalinoC62 68 61►≡20-1Fair 20-15%► Steady62 68 61 ≡C▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 83▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (62 vs 68)LS

    Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 61–68 · Last 3 figs 62 68 61

    ▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 83▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (62 vs 68)LS

    Longshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 5% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.

    Jockey Javier Padron-Barcenas 21% career 1-for-31 on dirt this meet (3%) · Trainer Joe Petalino 14% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R1: County Judge 30-1

    Drops from $30,000 claiming to $20,000 claiming. A 68 is the high figure lately, short of the 83 par.

    EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.
    WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Jun 30 (4F in :49.00), 1 work in 30d

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/2RP5½f DClm 30k n2l6th/8 -14L6252-1b LSvd gnd;no kick
    6/7LS6½f DMCL 20kWon/6 by 4684.6-1b LClosing; clear
    3/12OP1 1/16 DsMd200007th/12 -12L616.6-1b L3w 2nd; lacked kick
  3. 3Mister J. P.▲W. Hamilton · D. PishHamilton · PishC46 71 66▼▼-27↕@trip 8112-1Fair 8-111%▼▼ Big drop -2746 71 66 ↕@trip 81C▲ Rider upgrade (13% vs 6%) cutting back to a sprint2

    Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #2 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -27 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 46–81 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 46 71 66

    ▲ Rider upgrade (13% vs 6%) cutting back to a sprint
    Jockey Weston Hamilton 20% career 4-for-63 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Danny Pish 29% career 3-for-29 on dirt this meet (10%)
    Also today · Jockey R2: That's A Story 10-1, R6: Gold Front 8-1 · Trainer R6: Let's Go Mark 7-2, R8: Brienz 10-1
    LASIX 1ST3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK

    New trainer: Todd James Jordan had it last time, Danny Pish now. Shortens up to 6 furlongs after going 1 1/16 miles.

    PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 5)
    WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 17 (3F in :36.00), 3 works in 30d
    RECORD Weston Hamilton from post 3 here: 3 wins, 11 top-3 in 30 rides · 8% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/26PRM1 1/16 DsIaBrdDrbyB100k9th/9 -18L4681-1b BEmpty after half
    8/29PRM6f DsAlw48950n1x6th/11 -½L714.3-1b LBVied til 1/8p; gavewy
    8/14PRM1 1/16 DsAlw48688n3l6th/7 -4½L665.8-1b LBPace;overtaken 1/4p
  4. 4Knick the Quick▼S. Elliott · S. AsmussenElliott · AsmussenB68 52 67▲▲+8@trip 689-2Fair 10-110%▲▲ Big jump +868 52 67@trip 68B▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 83

    Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #10 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · Best fig at today's trip 68 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 52 67

    ▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 83
    Jockey S Elliott 35% career 7-for-67 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Steven M Asmussen 36% career ★ 31-for-129 on dirt this meet (24%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R2: Just Epic 8-1, R3: Mrs Yorke 8-1, R7: Presidential 3-1, R8: Irresistible 2-1 +1 more · Trainer R1: Big Tech 5-2, R2: Just Epic 8-1, R2: Sykes 3-1, R3: Promptly 5-2 +9 more
    CLASS UP

    Best recent figure is 68, well under the 83 par for this level. Jockey switch: Keith J Asmussen last out, S Elliott today.

    PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 3)
    WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.60 on Aug 7 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d
    RECORD S Elliott from post 4 here: 26 wins, 65 top-3 in 130 rides · 19% wins from all posts here
    RECORD Grays/roans win 11% here vs 13% for all horses (623 starts)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/17KEE6f DClm 20k n2l7th/10 -7L6844-1b LChased for 1/2; faded
    8/16ELP6f DClm 12k n2lc11th/11 -8L524.7-1b LHop/brk out;5p;9p upr
    12/27OP1m DOC 50k7th/11 -7½L6726-1bBrk sharp;faltered
  5. 5Fuel★E. Valdez-Jiminez · R. CravensValdez-Jiminez · CravensA74 55 72▲+6↕@trip 865-1Fair 5-117%▲ Up +674 55 72 ↕@trip 86A★ Best at the trip 861

    Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +6 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 55–76 · Best fig at today's trip 86 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 55 72

    ★ Best at the trip 86
    Jockey Ernesto Valdez-Jiminez 31% career 6-for-58 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Ronnie Iii Cravens 2-for-25 on dirt this meet (8%)
    Also today · Jockey R2: Lexizz 10-1, R3: It's Time For Zima 5-1, R4: Fair Hope 6-1 · Trainer R2: Lexizz 10-1, R3: Swiftliketaylor 12-1
    Jky 7/40 from post 5

    Raises its level, $10,000 claiming last time and $20,000 claiming now. Tops the field on speed figures, an 86 against 81 for the next best.

    PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 62 days ago
    RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 3 starts here
    RECORD Ernesto Valdez-Jiminez from post 5 here: 7 wins, 18 top-3 in 40 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/9RP6½f DClm 10k n2l2nd/9743.9-1LDueled; 2w; weakened
    9/3RP5½f DClm 7k n2lc6th/7 -7L550.3-1LTrkd in range; weakene
    11/25ZIA6f DZIAJuvnleB100k5th/10 -3½L722.3-1Chase;svd gnd;wkn
  6. 6HitchcockT. Bacon · O. FloresBacon · FloresA74 77 63▲+3@trip 839-2Fair 6-114%▲ Up +374 77 63@trip 83A

    Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +3 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 77 63

    Jockey Tyler W Bacon 32% career 10-for-60 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Oscar Flores 33% career 6-for-50 on dirt this meet (12%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Woodspoint 6-1, R6: Hola Joey 5-1, R7: Getaway Car 2-1 · Trainer R1: Woodspoint 6-1
    ★ FASTEST WORK

    Cuts back from a mile to 6 furlongs. Beaten 13 lengths for 5th in a 7-horse allowance race at RP.

    PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 55 days ago
    RECORD Tyler W Bacon from post 6 here: 1 win, 11 top-3 in 15 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/15RP1m DAlw n1x5th/7 -13L744.6-1LChased; 2w; gave way;
    9/26BTP6½f DMSWWon/7770.3-1LStrong hand ride
    9/14IND1m DMCL 20k3rd/7 -2L630.6-1b LStlk3p;bid1/2;dueled
  7. 7PotentiatorE. Asmussen · S. AsmussenAsmussen · AsmussenA76 81 74▲+3@trip 815-2Fair 4-119%▲ Up +376 81 74@trip 81A3

    Card model 19% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +3 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 81 74

    Jockey Erik Asmussen 34% career ★ 29-for-103 on dirt this meet (28%), #1 of 28 · Trainer Steven M Asmussen 36% career ★ 31-for-129 on dirt this meet (24%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R1: Big Tech 5-2, R2: Sykes 3-1, R3: Authentic Kitten 8-5, R4: Fire In My Sul 3-1 +4 more · Trainer R1: Big Tech 5-2, R2: Just Epic 8-1, R2: Sykes 3-1, R3: Promptly 5-2 +9 more

    Was running in $30,000 claiming; today's $20,000 claiming is an easier level on paper. Last out was 2nd, 3 lengths behind the winner, in an 8-horse $30,000 claiming race at RP.

    PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
    WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 16d ago
    RECORD Erik Asmussen from post 7 here: 15 wins, 29 top-3 in 46 rides · 27% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/2RP5½f DClm 30k n2l2nd/8 -3L763.9-1LStalk;4p;chase on
    9/19RP6f DMSWWon/6 by 2816.2-1L4w; up in final stride
    5/16LS6f DMSW2nd/7 -2½L743.4-1LPress 2w;turned away
  8. 8P R Bullet▼▼I. Diego · T. AshfordDiego · AshfordB58 76 73▼▼-16@trip 7612-1Fair 15-16%▼▼ Big drop -1658 76 73@trip 76B▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 83▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (58 vs 76)

    Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -16 · Best fig at today's trip 76 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 58 76 73

    ▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 83▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (58 vs 76)
    Jockey I V Diego 29% career 5-for-50 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Tristan Ashford 34% career 3-for-26 on dirt this meet (12%)
    Also today · Jockey R6: Heat Um Up 15-1, R9: Dontmesswithtess 15-1 · Trainer R3: Sneaking A Kiss 8-1, R9: Balmorhea 12-1

    Finished 7th in an 8-horse $30,000 claiming race at RP, beaten 11 lengths. Class relief: $30,000 claiming last time, $20,000 claiming today.

    PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
    WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 7d ago
    RECORD I V Diego from post 8 here: 3 wins, 19 top-3 in 74 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/2RP5½f DClm 30k n2l7th/8 -11L588.6-1LMidpack;2p;no bid
    2/6HOU6f DAlw n2l2nd/6 -3½L766.0-1LStlk ins;bid2p;gain2nd
    11/29RP5f DMCL 20kWon/117323-1Chased; 3w; driving;
  9. 9Koschei▼▼F. Jara · O. CogburnJara · CogburnC18 69 66▼▼-40↕15-1Fair 20-14%▼▼ Big drop -4018 69 66 ↕C▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 83▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (18 vs 69)

    Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -40 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 18–69 · Last 3 figs 18 69 66

    ▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 83▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (18 vs 69)
    Jockey Fernando Jara 31% career 3-for-37 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Orrin L Cogburn 28% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R1: Fine Tuned 30-1, R8: Cali Cream 8-1 · Trainer R1: County Judge 30-1
    LASIX 1ST2/4 board here

    Gets a new rider, Fernando Jara replacing Obed Sanchez. Dropped in well back early last out, 7th of 8 at the first call.

    PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 42d back)
    RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 4 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/2RP5½f DClm 30k n2l8th/8 -26L1839-1bVeer brk;2p;empty
    11/6RP5½f DMCL 30kWon/11699.2-1bVied inside; best late
    10/10RP5f DMCL 20k2nd/10 -1L6636-1Hustled; duel 2w; hung
  10. 10RoyalistF. Wethey Jr. · E. CruzWethey Jr. · CruzC73 71 47▲+7↕@trip 7915-1Fair 30-14%▲ Up +773 71 47 ↕@trip 79C

    Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +7 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 47–79 · Best fig at today's trip 79 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 71 47

    Jockey Floyd Jr Wethey 11-for-76 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Eduardo Cruz 30% career
    Also today · Jockey R2: Husker Cat 5-1, R4: Brass Nucks 9-5, R9: Floras Ora 9-2
    60D LAYOFF

    Back after 125 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field. Has moved up each time out, 47 to 71 to 73.

    PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
    WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 10d ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    6/27LS6f DClm 10k n2l3rd/8 -2½L739.9-1L4w 1/4;willingly btwn
    5/16LS1m DClm 10k n2l2nd/7 -6L714.7-1LIns;tip out;up for 2nd
    4/18LS1m DClm 25k n2l7th/7 -9¾L478.0-1LPrssd3w;no late bid

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks
1 2 3
Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair
The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?
The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72
Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕
≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★
Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips
Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
¼½FINISHSTART6 FURLONGS · DIRT · main1-turn · chute start

REMINGTON PARK · RACE 5

UPCOMING

Claiming $20,000

Field
10 runners
Purse
$22,000
Post
9:22 PM ET
Pace
Pressed Pace
Card model top pick
#5 · 17%

Claiming $20,000, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won two races lifetime.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 68.0

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #5 Fuel (a presser/stalker, M/L 5-1). Recent figures: 74 · 55 · 72. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #3 Mister J. P. at 12-1. Use #7 Potentiator in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

  • Market favourite #7 POTENTIATOR (5-2) — our number has it ranked #3.
  • #7 POTENTIATOR — our #3 number, about right at the windows (22.0% to their 22.2%).
  • #5 FUEL — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 15.5%, they've got 13.0%.
  • #6 HITCHCOCK — our #4 number, about right at the windows (13.8% to their 14.1%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

  • #5 FUEL — we make it 15.5%, the morning line works out to 13.0%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
  • Longshot the model rates above its line: #3 MISTER J. P. (12-1) — our fair 7.3% is above the morning line's 6.0%; needs the trip to fall right.
Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #4 Knick The Quick; pressure from #3 Mister J. P., #5 Fuel; the shape helps #1 McKinsense, #5 Fuel, #6 Hitchcock; and works against #3 Mister J. P., #4 Knick The Quick.

Lead
4Knick The Quick913Mister J. P.85
Press
5Fuel921McKinsense858P R Bullet829Koschei68
Stalk
7Potentiator8610Royalist866Hitchcock80
Close
2Spooky Action62

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

5
Fuel
92
4
Knick The Quick
91
7
Potentiator
86
10
Royalist
86
1
McKinsense
85
3
Mister J. P.
85
8
P R Bullet
82
6
Hitchcock
80
9
Koschei
68

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

2
Spooky Action
9
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