1MckinsenseR. Vazquez · S. MartinVazquez · MartinB71 80 68▼-3@trip 836-1Fair 10-19%
▼ Down -371 80 68@trip 83BCard model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -3 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 80 68
Jockey R A Vazquez 33% career 13-for-70 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Steve Martin 28% career 1-for-16 on dirt this meet (6%)Also today · Jockey R1: Close Call 3-1, R3: Epic Selloff 6-1, R6: Let's Go Mark 7-2, R7: U. S. Army 6-1 +2 moreCLASS UPWON LASTComes in off a victory in a 9-horse maiden claiming $20,000 race at RP. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 52d agoRECORD R A Vazquez from post 1 here: 18 wins, 31 top-3 in 52 rides · 26% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/8 RP 5½f D MCL 20k Won/9 71 0.3-1 b L Stalk; 4w; prevailed 9/24 RP 6f D MCL 7k 2nd/9 -1L 80 1.1-1 b L Vied 2w; duel; hung 8/23 ELP 6f D MCL 16kv 5th/7 -4L 68 4.9-1 b L Stalk ins;chsd;gave wy 2Spooky Action▼▼LSJ. Padron-Barcenas · J. PetalinoPadron-Barcenas · PetalinoC62 68 61►≡20-1Fair 20-15%
► Steady62 68 61 ≡C▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 83▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (62 vs 68)LSCard model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 61–68 · Last 3 figs 62 68 61
▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 83▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (62 vs 68)LSLongshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 5% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Javier Padron-Barcenas 21% career 1-for-31 on dirt this meet (3%) · Trainer Joe Petalino 14% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meetDrops from $30,000 claiming to $20,000 claiming. A 68 is the high figure lately, short of the 83 par.
EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Jun 30 (4F in :49.00), 1 work in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/2 RP 5½f D Clm 30k n2l 6th/8 -14L 62 52-1 b L Svd gnd;no kick 6/7 LS 6½f D MCL 20k Won/6 by 4 68 4.6-1 b L Closing; clear 3/12 OP 1 1/16 D sMd20000 7th/12 -12L 61 6.6-1 b L 3w 2nd; lacked kick 3Mister J. P.▲W. Hamilton · D. PishHamilton · PishC46 71 66▼▼-27↕@trip 8112-1Fair 8-111%
▼▼ Big drop -2746 71 66 ↕@trip 81C▲ Rider upgrade (13% vs 6%) cutting back to a sprint2Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #2 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -27 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 46–81 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 46 71 66
▲ Rider upgrade (13% vs 6%) cutting back to a sprintJockey Weston Hamilton 20% career 4-for-63 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Danny Pish 29% career 3-for-29 on dirt this meet (10%)Also today · Jockey R2: That's A Story 10-1, R6: Gold Front 8-1 · Trainer R6: Let's Go Mark 7-2, R8: Brienz 10-1LASIX 1ST3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORKNew trainer: Todd James Jordan had it last time, Danny Pish now. Shortens up to 6 furlongs after going 1 1/16 miles.
PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 5)WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 17 (3F in :36.00), 3 works in 30dRECORD Weston Hamilton from post 3 here: 3 wins, 11 top-3 in 30 rides · 8% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/26 PRM 1 1/16 D sIaBrdDrbyB100k 9th/9 -18L 46 81-1 b B Empty after half 8/29 PRM 6f D sAlw48950n1x 6th/11 -½L 71 4.3-1 b LB Vied til 1/8p; gavewy 8/14 PRM 1 1/16 D sAlw48688n3l 6th/7 -4½L 66 5.8-1 b LB Pace;overtaken 1/4p 4Knick the Quick▼S. Elliott · S. AsmussenElliott · AsmussenB68 52 67▲▲+8@trip 689-2Fair 10-110%
▲▲ Big jump +868 52 67@trip 68B▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 83Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #10 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · Best fig at today's trip 68 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 52 67
▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 83Jockey S Elliott 35% career 7-for-67 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Steven M Asmussen 36% career ★ 31-for-129 on dirt this meet (24%) ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R2: Just Epic 8-1, R3: Mrs Yorke 8-1, R7: Presidential 3-1, R8: Irresistible 2-1 +1 more · Trainer R1: Big Tech 5-2, R2: Just Epic 8-1, R2: Sykes 3-1, R3: Promptly 5-2 +9 moreCLASS UPBest recent figure is 68, well under the 83 par for this level. Jockey switch: Keith J Asmussen last out, S Elliott today.
PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 3)WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.60 on Aug 7 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30dRECORD S Elliott from post 4 here: 26 wins, 65 top-3 in 130 rides · 19% wins from all posts hereRECORD Grays/roans win 11% here vs 13% for all horses (623 starts)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/17 KEE 6f D Clm 20k n2l 7th/10 -7L 68 44-1 b L Chased for 1/2; faded 8/16 ELP 6f D Clm 12k n2lc 11th/11 -8L 52 4.7-1 b L Hop/brk out;5p;9p upr 12/27 OP 1m D OC 50k 7th/11 -7½L 67 26-1 b Brk sharp;faltered 5Fuel★E. Valdez-Jiminez · R. CravensValdez-Jiminez · CravensA74 55 72▲+6↕@trip 865-1Fair 5-117%
▲ Up +674 55 72 ↕@trip 86A★ Best at the trip 861Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +6 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 55–76 · Best fig at today's trip 86 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 55 72
★ Best at the trip 86Jockey Ernesto Valdez-Jiminez 31% career 6-for-58 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Ronnie Iii Cravens 2-for-25 on dirt this meet (8%)Also today · Jockey R2: Lexizz 10-1, R3: It's Time For Zima 5-1, R4: Fair Hope 6-1 · Trainer R2: Lexizz 10-1, R3: Swiftliketaylor 12-1Jky 7/40 from post 5Raises its level, $10,000 claiming last time and $20,000 claiming now. Tops the field on speed figures, an 86 against 81 for the next best.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 62 days agoRECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 3 starts hereRECORD Ernesto Valdez-Jiminez from post 5 here: 7 wins, 18 top-3 in 40 rides · 12% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/9 RP 6½f D Clm 10k n2l 2nd/9 74 3.9-1 L Dueled; 2w; weakened 9/3 RP 5½f D Clm 7k n2lc 6th/7 -7L 55 0.3-1 L Trkd in range; weakene 11/25 ZIA 6f D ZIAJuvnleB100k 5th/10 -3½L 72 2.3-1 Chase;svd gnd;wkn 6HitchcockT. Bacon · O. FloresBacon · FloresA74 77 63▲+3@trip 839-2Fair 6-114%
▲ Up +374 77 63@trip 83ACard model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +3 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 77 63
Jockey Tyler W Bacon 32% career 10-for-60 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Oscar Flores 33% career 6-for-50 on dirt this meet (12%)Also today · Jockey R1: Woodspoint 6-1, R6: Hola Joey 5-1, R7: Getaway Car 2-1 · Trainer R1: Woodspoint 6-1★ FASTEST WORKCuts back from a mile to 6 furlongs. Beaten 13 lengths for 5th in a 7-horse allowance race at RP.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 55 days agoRECORD Tyler W Bacon from post 6 here: 1 win, 11 top-3 in 15 rides · 12% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/15 RP 1m D Alw n1x 5th/7 -13L 74 4.6-1 L Chased; 2w; gave way; 9/26 BTP 6½f D MSW Won/7 77 0.3-1 L Strong hand ride 9/14 IND 1m D MCL 20k 3rd/7 -2L 63 0.6-1 b L Stlk3p;bid1/2;dueled 7PotentiatorE. Asmussen · S. AsmussenAsmussen · AsmussenA76 81 74▲+3@trip 815-2Fair 4-119%
▲ Up +376 81 74@trip 81A3Card model 19% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +3 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 81 74
Jockey Erik Asmussen 34% career ★ 29-for-103 on dirt this meet (28%), #1 of 28 · Trainer Steven M Asmussen 36% career ★ 31-for-129 on dirt this meet (24%) ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R1: Big Tech 5-2, R2: Sykes 3-1, R3: Authentic Kitten 8-5, R4: Fire In My Sul 3-1 +4 more · Trainer R1: Big Tech 5-2, R2: Just Epic 8-1, R2: Sykes 3-1, R3: Promptly 5-2 +9 moreWas running in $30,000 claiming; today's $20,000 claiming is an easier level on paper. Last out was 2nd, 3 lengths behind the winner, in an 8-horse $30,000 claiming race at RP.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 16d agoRECORD Erik Asmussen from post 7 here: 15 wins, 29 top-3 in 46 rides · 27% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/2 RP 5½f D Clm 30k n2l 2nd/8 -3L 76 3.9-1 L Stalk;4p;chase on 9/19 RP 6f D MSW Won/6 by 2 81 6.2-1 L 4w; up in final stride 5/16 LS 6f D MSW 2nd/7 -2½L 74 3.4-1 L Press 2w;turned away 8P R Bullet▼▼I. Diego · T. AshfordDiego · AshfordB58 76 73▼▼-16@trip 7612-1Fair 15-16%
▼▼ Big drop -1658 76 73@trip 76B▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 83▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (58 vs 76)Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -16 · Best fig at today's trip 76 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 58 76 73
▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 83▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (58 vs 76)Jockey I V Diego 29% career 5-for-50 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Tristan Ashford 34% career 3-for-26 on dirt this meet (12%)Also today · Jockey R6: Heat Um Up 15-1, R9: Dontmesswithtess 15-1 · Trainer R3: Sneaking A Kiss 8-1, R9: Balmorhea 12-1Finished 7th in an 8-horse $30,000 claiming race at RP, beaten 11 lengths. Class relief: $30,000 claiming last time, $20,000 claiming today.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 7d agoRECORD I V Diego from post 8 here: 3 wins, 19 top-3 in 74 rides · 11% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/2 RP 5½f D Clm 30k n2l 7th/8 -11L 58 8.6-1 L Midpack;2p;no bid 2/6 HOU 6f D Alw n2l 2nd/6 -3½L 76 6.0-1 L Stlk ins;bid2p;gain2nd 11/29 RP 5f D MCL 20k Won/11 73 23-1 Chased; 3w; driving; 9Koschei▼▼F. Jara · O. CogburnJara · CogburnC18 69 66▼▼-40↕15-1Fair 20-14%
▼▼ Big drop -4018 69 66 ↕C▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 83▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (18 vs 69)Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -40 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 18–69 · Last 3 figs 18 69 66
▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 83▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (18 vs 69)Jockey Fernando Jara 31% career 3-for-37 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Orrin L Cogburn 28% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meetLASIX 1ST2/4 board hereGets a new rider, Fernando Jara replacing Obed Sanchez. Dropped in well back early last out, 7th of 8 at the first call.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 42d back)RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 4 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/2 RP 5½f D Clm 30k n2l 8th/8 -26L 18 39-1 b Veer brk;2p;empty 11/6 RP 5½f D MCL 30k Won/11 69 9.2-1 b Vied inside; best late 10/10 RP 5f D MCL 20k 2nd/10 -1L 66 36-1 Hustled; duel 2w; hung 10RoyalistF. Wethey Jr. · E. CruzWethey Jr. · CruzC73 71 47▲+7↕@trip 7915-1Fair 30-14%
▲ Up +773 71 47 ↕@trip 79CCard model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +7 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 47–79 · Best fig at today's trip 79 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 71 47
60D LAYOFFBack after 125 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field. Has moved up each time out, 47 to 71 to 73.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 10d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 6/27 LS 6f D Clm 10k n2l 3rd/8 -2½L 73 9.9-1 L 4w 1/4;willingly btwn 5/16 LS 1m D Clm 10k n2l 2nd/7 -6L 71 4.7-1 L Ins;tip out;up for 2nd 4/18 LS 1m D Clm 25k n2l 7th/7 -9¾L 47 8.0-1 L Prssd3w;no late bid
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
REMINGTON PARK · RACE 5
UPCOMINGClaiming $20,000
Claiming $20,000, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won two races lifetime.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 68.0
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #5 Fuel (a presser/stalker, M/L 5-1). Recent figures: 74 · 55 · 72. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #3 Mister J. P. at 12-1. Use #7 Potentiator in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #7 POTENTIATOR (5-2) — our number has it ranked #3.
- #7 POTENTIATOR — our #3 number, about right at the windows (22.0% to their 22.2%).
- #5 FUEL — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 15.5%, they've got 13.0%.
- #6 HITCHCOCK — our #4 number, about right at the windows (13.8% to their 14.1%).
Model vs the morning line
- #5 FUEL — we make it 15.5%, the morning line works out to 13.0%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
- Longshot the model rates above its line: #3 MISTER J. P. (12-1) — our fair 7.3% is above the morning line's 6.0%; needs the trip to fall right.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #4 Knick The Quick; pressure from #3 Mister J. P., #5 Fuel; the shape helps #1 McKinsense, #5 Fuel, #6 Hitchcock; and works against #3 Mister J. P., #4 Knick The Quick.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
WPS / EXACTA / TRIFECTA (.50 CENT MINIMUM) / SUPERFECTA (.10 CENT MINIMUM)
PICK 3 (RACES 5-6-7) (.50 CENT MINIMUM)
BET OPTIONS
WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta