R2 Remington Park · Maiden Special Weight

7:58 PM ET · 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · $38,000 · 8 runners7:58 PM · 5½f Dirt · 8 runners

Upcoming $38K · Maiden Special Weight

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Just Epic▼S. Elliott · S. AsmussenElliott · AsmussenA51 64@trip 518-1Fair 6-114%—51 64@trip 51A▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 751
Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Best fig at today's trip 51 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 51 64
▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 75
Jockey S Elliott 35% career 7-for-67 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Steven M Asmussen 36% career ★ 31-for-129 on dirt this meet (24%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R3: Mrs Yorke 8-1, R5: Knick The Quick 9-2, R7: Presidential 3-1, R8: Irresistible 2-1 +1 more · Trainer R1: Big Tech 5-2, this race: Sykes 3-1, R3: Promptly 5-2, R3: Authentic Kitten 8-5 +9 more
60D LAYOFF
Back after 116 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field. Drops from maiden special weight to maiden special weight.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 14d ago
RECORD S Elliott from post 1 here: 28 wins, 77 top-3 in 144 rides · 19% wins from all posts here
RECORD Grays/roans win 11% here vs 13% for all horses (623 starts)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
7/6 ELP 5½f D MSW 11th/11 -12L 51 31-1 Drop back early;outrun
4/29 CD 4½f D MSW 7th/11 -11L 64 11-1 2wd btwn; no bid
2Husker CatF. Wethey Jr. · S. YoungWethey Jr. · Young?5-1Fair 7-112%—Debut?3
Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier ?
Jockey Floyd Jr Wethey 11-for-76 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Scott E Young 30% career 4-for-46 on dirt this meet (9%)
Also today · Jockey R4: Brass Nucks 9-5, R5: Royalist 15-1, R9: Floras Ora 9-2 · Trainer R4: Brass Nucks 9-5, R4: Fair Hope 6-1, R8: Cali Cream 8-1
Unraced so far; the pedigree is Flat Out out of Dontmeswithdiscat. Debut for a trainer who is 14% with first-timers, over 91 starts.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 3 works in 30d, last 8d ago
Last three races
First start. By Flat Out out of Dontmeswithdiscat (Tale of the Cat)
Trainer S. Young: 1st-time starters: 14% wins, 30% in the money (91 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 17% wins, 32% in the money (75 starts) · Maiden special weights: 15% wins, 33% in the money (241 starts)
Jockey F. Wethey Jr. in sprints: 63 wins from 340 (19%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/22 RP 4f :49.80 handily 8/12
10/10 RP 4f :50.20 handily 57/105
10/3 RP 4f :49.80 handily 35/94
9/26 RP 4f :49.20 handily 26/69 from gate
9/19 RP 4f :50.20 handily 64/94
3That's a Story▼LSW. Hamilton · A. Baldillez Jr.Hamilton · Baldillez Jr.B4010-1Fair 12-18%—40B▼ Best fig 40 is 5+ under today's par 75LS
Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 40
▼ Best fig 40 is 5+ under today's par 75LS
Longshot read: 10-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 8% against a line of 7%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Weston Hamilton 20% career 4-for-63 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Alejandro Jr Baldillez 0-for-1 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R5: Mister J. P. 12-1, R6: Gold Front 8-1
Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here. A step up in company: maiden special weight before, maiden special weight today.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 6d back)
RECORD Weston Hamilton from post 3 here: 3 wins, 11 top-3 in 30 rides · 8% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/6 CBY 5f T MSW 5th/6 -18L 40 5.2-1 b Chase3w3/8;weakened
4Putnam Market▼▲R. Huckaby · S. RushtonHuckaby · RushtonA399-2Fair 7-112%—39A▼ Best fig 39 is 5+ under today's par 75▲ Lone speed on early pace
Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #6 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 39
▼ Best fig 39 is 5+ under today's par 75▲ Lone speed on early pace
Jockey Ronnie Huckaby 22% career 2-for-45 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer Stacy Rushton 26% career 1-for-8 on dirt this meet (12%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Nacho Bar 7-2, R6: Wearacap 8-1, R7: Board Of Directors 6-1
New trainer: Michael J Maker had it last time, Stacy Rushton now. 11th last time, 13 lengths back, in a field of 11.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Frct beh gt; brk out; 6w. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.
WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 4d ago
RECORD Grays/roans win 11% here vs 13% for all horses (623 starts)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/23 CD 6f D MCL 150k 11th/11 -13L 39 6.4-1 b Frct beh gt;brk out;6w
5LexizzE. Valdez-Jiminez · R. CravensValdez-Jiminez · Cravens?10-1Fair 12-17%—Debut?
Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #8 · Tier ?
Jockey Ernesto Valdez-Jiminez 31% career 6-for-58 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Ronnie Iii Cravens 2-for-25 on dirt this meet (8%)
Also today · Jockey R3: It's Time For Zima 5-1, R4: Fair Hope 6-1, R5: Fuel 5-1 · Trainer R3: Swiftliketaylor 12-1, R5: Fuel 5-1
Jky 7/40 from post 5
First-time starter from a barn that wins 3% of the time with them (69 tried). There is gate work on its record, the latest on Oct 17.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS Routine prep: 3 works in 30d, last 13d ago
RECORD Ernesto Valdez-Jiminez from post 5 here: 7 wins, 18 top-3 in 40 rides · 12% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Lexitonian out of Mizz Cat C S (Mizzen Mast)
Trainer R. Cravens: 1st-time starters: 3% wins, 28% in the money (69 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 0% wins, 28% in the money (39 starts) · Maiden special weights: 7% wins, 34% in the money (219 starts)
Jockey E. Valdez-Jiminez in sprints: 25 wins from 207 (12%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/17 RP 5f 1:03.00 handily 41/49 from gate
10/10 RP 4f :49.80 handily 42/105
10/3 RP 4f :48.40 handily 9/94 from gate
9/25 RP 4f :50.20 handily 29/47
9/4 RP 4f :49.20 handily 28/54
6Divine PassingR. Eramia · J. OffolterEramia · Offolter?5-2Fair 9-218%—Debut?
Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #7 · Tier ?
Jockey Richard E Eramia 30% career 5-for-49 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Joe S Offolter 34% career 6-for-33 on dirt this meet (18%)
Also today · Jockey R6: Schwarzmeier 6-1, R7: Big Bernie 5-1, R9: Ready 3-1 · Trainer R8: Long Long Time 9-2
Unraced, but it had the morning's best 4F work on Oct 10, in :47.60. On Sep 20 it was 2nd of 6 at 3F (:37.40).
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 10 (4F in :47.60), 1 work in 30d
RECORD Richard E Eramia from post 6 here: 12 wins, 32 top-3 in 84 rides · 14% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Pass the Buck out of Holy Creed (Jimmy Creed)
Trainer J. Offolter: 1st-time starters: 18% wins, 38% in the money (72 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 21% wins, 39% in the money (61 starts) · Maiden special weights: 19% wins, 41% in the money (189 starts)
Jockey R. Eramia in sprints: 15 wins from 158 (9%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/10 RP 4f :47.60 handily 1/105 ● bullet
9/29 RP 4f :48.40 handily 3/11 from gate
9/20 RP 3f :37.40 handily 2/6
9/12 RP 3f :36.60 handily 1/38 ● bullet

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/6	ELP	5½f D	MSW	11th/11 -12L	51	31-1		Drop back early;outrun
4/29	CD	4½f D	MSW	7th/11 -11L	64	11-1		2wd btwn; no bid

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/22	RP	4f	:49.80	handily	8/12
10/10	RP	4f	:50.20	handily	57/105
10/3	RP	4f	:49.80	handily	35/94
9/26	RP	4f	:49.20	handily	26/69	from gate
9/19	RP	4f	:50.20	handily	64/94

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/6	CBY	5f T	MSW	5th/6 -18L	40	5.2-1	b	Chase3w3/8;weakened

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/23	CD	6f D	MCL 150k	11th/11 -13L	39	6.4-1	b	Frct beh gt;brk out;6w

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/17	RP	5f	1:03.00	handily	41/49	from gate
10/10	RP	4f	:49.80	handily	42/105
10/3	RP	4f	:48.40	handily	9/94	from gate
9/25	RP	4f	:50.20	handily	29/47
9/4	RP	4f	:49.20	handily	28/54

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/10	RP	4f	:47.60	handily	1/105	● bullet
9/29	RP	4f	:48.40	handily	3/11	from gate
9/20	RP	3f	:37.40	handily	2/6
9/12	RP	3f	:36.60	handily	1/38	● bullet

7Going For Dough▼R. Diaz · J. CaldwellDiaz · CaldwellA66 61 45▲▲+1310-1Fair 7-112%▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best66 61 45A▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 752

Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best · Last 3 figs 66 61 45

▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 75

Jockey Rene Diaz 33% career 7-for-65 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer J R Caldwell 31% career 3-for-23 on dirt this meet (13%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Swiftliketaylor 12-1, R4: Quality Style 5-2, R6: Jackman's Ride 5-2, R8: Brienz 10-1 · Trainer R4: Quality Style 5-2, R6: Jackman's Ride 5-2

Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 66, with 64 next best. Has moved up each time out, 45 to 61 to 66.

PACE CHALLENGE With the front end asleep, a closer has nothing to run down.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 64d ago

RECORD Rene Diaz from post 7 here: 5 wins, 14 top-3 in 46 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	RP	5f D	MSW	2nd/9 -3½L	66	10-1	b	4p;bid1/4;late gain
9/11	RP	5f T	MCL 30k	6th/9 -3½L	61	20-1	b	Bore out turn;faltered
6/14	LS	5f D	fsMdSpWt	10th/11 -17L	45	25-1	b L	Crowded st;wide trip

8SykesE. Asmussen · S. AsmussenAsmussen · Asmussen?3-1Fair 5-116%—Debut?
Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #5 · Tier ?
Jockey Erik Asmussen 34% career ★ 29-for-103 on dirt this meet (28%), #1 of 28 · Trainer Steven M Asmussen 36% career ★ 31-for-129 on dirt this meet (24%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Big Tech 5-2, R3: Authentic Kitten 8-5, R4: Fire In My Sul 3-1, R5: Potentiator 5-2 +4 more · Trainer R1: Big Tech 5-2, this race: Just Epic 8-1, R3: Promptly 5-2, R3: Authentic Kitten 8-5 +9 more
Makes her first start with no form to go on, only the Practical Joke and Hookah Lady breeding. It was the fastest 5F work of its morning on Oct 19 (1:02.00).
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Oct 19; 2 works in 30d
RECORD Erik Asmussen from post 8 here: 5 wins, 16 top-3 in 29 rides · 27% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Practical Joke out of Hookah Lady (Smoke Glacken)
Trainer S. Asmussen: 1st-time starters: 11% wins, 34% in the money (790 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 11% wins, 35% in the money (714 starts) · Maiden special weights: 15% wins, 42% in the money (2227 starts)
Jockey E. Asmussen in sprints: 81 wins from 387 (21%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/19 ELP 5f 1:02.00 breezing 1/4 ● bullet
10/8 ELP 5f 1:01.40 handily 5/10 from gate
9/24 ELP 5f 1:03.60 handily 15/16 from gate
9/15 ELP 5f 1:02.00 breezing 9/12
9/7 CD 5f 1:02.20 breezing 10/13

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/19	ELP	5f	1:02.00	breezing	1/4	● bullet
10/8	ELP	5f	1:01.40	handily	5/10	from gate
9/24	ELP	5f	1:03.60	handily	15/16	from gate
9/15	ELP	5f	1:02.00	breezing	9/12
9/7	CD	5f	1:02.20	breezing	10/13

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

REMINGTON PARK · RACE 2

UPCOMING

Maiden Special Weight

Field

8 runners

Purse

$38,000

Post

7:58 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#1 · 14%

Maiden Special Weight, for fillies, 2-year-olds.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

● Track record at 5 1/2 Furlongs: 62.0

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #1 Just Epic (a tactical type, M/L 8-1). Recent figures: 51 · 64. It needs to turn the form around after a flat last start. Backup is #7 Going For Dough at 10-1. Use #2 Husker Cat in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #6 DIVINE PASSING (5-2) — our number has it ranked #7.
#6 DIVINE PASSING — our #7 number, about right at the windows (22.0% to their 22.5%).
#8 SYKES — our #5 number, about right at the windows (19.1% to their 19.7%).
#4 PUTNAM MARKET — our #6 number, about right at the windows (13.2% to their 14.3%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #1 JUST EPIC (8-1) — our fair 10.5% is above the morning line's 8.8%; supported by: top barn (36%) + jockey (35%) at 8-1 (a hot trainer-jockey pairing; on our own re-test it did not beat its odds)

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Just Epic, #2 Husker Cat, #3 That's A Story.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

7Going For Dough76

No style yet

4Putnam Market841Just Epic753That's A Story742Husker Cat5Lexizz6Divine Passing8Sykes

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Putnam Market

Going For Dough

Just Epic

That's A Story

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Going For Dough

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