R8 Remington Park · Allowance · $39,000 purse

10:46 PM ET · 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · $39,000 · 7 runners10:46 PM · 5½f Dirt · 7 runners

Upcoming $39K · Allowance · $39,000 purse

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles
  1. 1Long Long Time▼J. Alvarez · J. OffolterAlvarez · OffolterB72 74 66▲+7@trip 669-2Fair 6-114%▲ Up +772 74 66@trip 66B▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 82

    Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +7 · Best fig at today's trip 66 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 74 66

    ▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 82
    Jockey Jose L Alvarez 34% career 9-for-53 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Joe S Offolter 34% career 6-for-33 on dirt this meet (18%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R9: Hollywoodboulevard 6-1 · Trainer R2: Divine Passing 5-2
    3/4 board here

    Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here. Beaten ½ length for 2nd in a 9-horse allowance race at RP.

    PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 8)
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 27 days ago
    RECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 4 starts here
    RECORD Jose L Alvarez from post 1 here: 15 wins, 50 top-3 in 101 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/9RP-5f TAlw n2l2nd/9 -½L727.6-1b LEarly speed; held 2nd
    9/12RP5f TClm 30k n2l4th/10 -1L746.3-1b LVied inside; bore out
    8/29RP5½f DAlw n1x2nd/6 -4L6611-1b LHustled; 2w; weakened
  2. 2IrresistibleS. Elliott · S. AsmussenElliott · AsmussenA80 75 83►≡2-1Fair 7-221%► Steady80 75 83 ≡A

    Card model 21% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #6 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 75–83 · Last 3 figs 80 75 83

    Jockey S Elliott 35% career 7-for-67 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Steven M Asmussen 36% career ★ 31-for-129 on dirt this meet (24%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R2: Just Epic 8-1, R3: Mrs Yorke 8-1, R5: Knick The Quick 9-2, R7: Presidential 3-1 +1 more · Trainer R1: Big Tech 5-2, R2: Just Epic 8-1, R2: Sykes 3-1, R3: Promptly 5-2 +9 more
    3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

    Last out was 2nd, 1½ lengths behind the winner, in a 7-horse allowance race at RP. S Elliott takes over from Erik Asmussen in the saddle.

    EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.
    TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Block brk; 4p; late gain. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.
    WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 3 works in 30d, last 6d ago
    RECORD S Elliott from post 2 here: 28 wins, 82 top-3 in 132 rides · 19% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/1RP6f DAlw n1x2nd/7 -1½L801.0-1LBlock brk;4p;late gain
    9/7KD7f TAlw n1x9th/12 -7¾L7537-1LSaved ground;no rally
    8/30KD6½f TAlw n1x9th/12 -7½L8316-1L4w;bothered;wknd
  3. 3Canoga▼G. Franko-Angeles · C. TroutFranko-Angeles · TroutC68 73 72►≡@trip 655-1Fair 7-113%► Steady68 73 72 ≡@trip 65C▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 82

    Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 65–73 · Best fig at today's trip 65 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 73 72

    ▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 82
    Jockey Geovanni Franko-Angeles · Trainer C R Trout 28% career ★ 5-for-23 on dirt this meet (22%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Pilot's Creed 12-1, R3: Promptly 5-2, R7: Mandolin Wind 12-1, R9: Jocasta 4-1
    2/4 board here

    Stretches out from -5 furlongs to 5½ furlongs. Best recent figure is 73, well under the 82 par for this level.

    EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 35d ago
    RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 4 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/9RP-5f TAlw n2l5th/9 -3L6815-1b LBid 2w; no threat
    9/10RP5f DMCL 30kWon/7731.0-1b LRallied; 3w; driving
    10/2RP-5f TMCL 30k3rd/10 -2½L724.3-1b LInside; no menace
  4. 4Greely's Gold▲R. Vazquez · A. GustafsonVazquez · GustafsonA85 70 77▲▲+12@trip 858-1Fair 6-114%▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best85 70 77@trip 85A▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 821

    Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 85 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 70 77

    ▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 82
    Jockey R A Vazquez 33% career 13-for-70 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Austin Gustafson 34% career ★ 5-for-25 on dirt this meet (20%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R1: Close Call 3-1, R3: Epic Selloff 6-1, R5: McKinsense 6-1, R6: Let's Go Mark 7-2 +2 more · Trainer R3: Epic Selloff 6-1
    3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST

    Owns the highest recent figure here at 85. Moves up from maiden claiming $30,000 to allowance.

    PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 7)
    SHARP LAST OUT Chart comment from the last start: Early speed; much best.
    WORKS Average work schedule for this field (3 works in 30d, last 10d ago)
    RECORD R A Vazquez from post 4 here: 12 wins, 24 top-3 in 46 rides · 26% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/12RP5½f DMCL 30kWon/4850.5-1LEarly speed; much best
    7/10LS5f TMSW6th/11 -3L704.3-1LPrompted 2wd; wknd
    5/7IND6f DMSW2nd/9 -1½L7715-1LBmp st;duel;no match
  5. 5Cali CreamF. Jara · S. YoungJara · YoungB68 71 81▼▼-88-1Fair 12-17%▼▼ Big drop -868 71 81B

    Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · Last 3 figs 68 71 81

    Jockey Fernando Jara 31% career 3-for-37 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Scott E Young 30% career 4-for-46 on dirt this meet (9%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Fine Tuned 30-1, R5: Koschei 15-1 · Trainer R2: Husker Cat 5-1, R4: Brass Nucks 9-5, R4: Fair Hope 6-1

    Trending the wrong way on speed, 81 to 71 to 68. Switches from turf to dirt.

    PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 6)
    TROUBLED TRIP Vied 2w; faltered last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 63d ago
    RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/8RP-7½f TAlw n2l8th/10 -2L687.4-1b LVied 2w; faltered
    9/18RP-7½f TAlw n2l4th/8715.2-1LPace inside; hung late
    9/3RP6f DMSWWon/10814.6-1LDuel2w;dug in;drw off
  6. 6Private DebbieE. Asmussen · S. AsmussenAsmussen · AsmussenA71 78 80▼-6@trip 725-2Fair 4-120%▼ Down -671 78 80@trip 72A3

    Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -6 · Best fig at today's trip 72 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 78 80

    Jockey Erik Asmussen 34% career ★ 29-for-103 on dirt this meet (28%), #1 of 28 · Trainer Steven M Asmussen 36% career ★ 31-for-129 on dirt this meet (24%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R1: Big Tech 5-2, R2: Sykes 3-1, R3: Authentic Kitten 8-5, R4: Fire In My Sul 3-1 +4 more · Trainer R1: Big Tech 5-2, R2: Just Epic 8-1, R2: Sykes 3-1, R3: Promptly 5-2 +9 more
    ◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE2/3 board here

    Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt. Goes 5½ furlongs after running -5 furlongs last time.

    EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.
    TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (3w; steadied; gaining), and the figure already reflects it.
    WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 2 works in 30d and the last 5d back
    RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 3 starts here
    RECORD Erik Asmussen from post 6 here: 10 wins, 26 top-3 in 45 rides · 27% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/9RP-5f TAlw n2l3rd/9 -1½L715.2-1L3w; steadied; gaining;
    9/17RP6f DAlw n2l2nd/5 by hd781.3-1L3w; led; held place
    8/21RP6f DAlw n1x4th/12 by hd8011-1LChasd 2w;4w upr;vied
  7. 7Brienz▲R. Diaz · D. PishDiaz · PishB82 78 80▲+310-1Fair 8-111%▲ Up +3 · career best82 78 80B▲ Last fig 82 at/above par 822

    Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +3 · career best · Last 3 figs 82 78 80

    ▲ Last fig 82 at/above par 82
    Jockey Rene Diaz 33% career 7-for-65 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Danny Pish 29% career 3-for-29 on dirt this meet (10%)
    Also today · Jockey R2: Going For Dough 10-1, R3: Swiftliketaylor 12-1, R4: Quality Style 5-2, R6: Jackman's Ride 5-2 · Trainer R5: Mister J. P. 12-1, R6: Let's Go Mark 7-2
    180D+ LAYOFFLASIX 1ST3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

    Back after 189 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field. Runs for $39,000 today after a $135,000 race last time.

    EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.
    WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 22 (3F in :36.20), 3 works in 30d
    RECORD Rene Diaz from post 7 here: 5 wins, 14 top-3 in 46 rides · 12% wins from all posts here
    RECORD Grays/roans win 11% here vs 13% for all horses (623 starts)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    4/24OP6f DfrSthnHsptyB135k4th/6 -3½L829.8-1Rated 3-5p; evenly str
    4/2OP6f DOC 150k n1x3rd/6 -¾L787.8-1LLoom4p1/4;6p lane;even
    2/26OP6f DMSWWon/6803.8-1LIns-2p;bid btw3/16;clr

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks
1 2 3
Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair
The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?
The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72
Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕
≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★
Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips
Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
¼½FINISHSTART5 1/2 FURLONGS · DIRT · main1-turn

REMINGTON PARK · RACE 8

UPCOMING

Allowance · $39,000 purse

Field
7 runners
Purse
$39,000
Post
10:46 PM ET
Pace
Speed Duel
Card model top pick
#4 · 14%

Allowance, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, that have not won two races lifetime.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

● Track record at 5 1/2 Furlongs: 62.0

The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #4 Greely's Gold (early speed, M/L 8-1). Recent figures: 85 · 70 · 77. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #7 Brienz at 10-1. Use #6 Private Debbie in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

  • Market favourite #2 IRRESISTIBLE (2-1) — our number has it ranked #6.
  • #2 IRRESISTIBLE — our #6 number, about right at the windows (24.5% to their 26.0%).
  • #6 PRIVATE DEBBIE — our #3 number, about right at the windows (22.2% to their 22.3%).
  • #1 LONG LONG TIME — our #4 number, about right at the windows (14.4% to their 14.2%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

  • Longshot the model rates above its line: #4 GREELY'S GOLD (8-1) — our fair 10.2% is above the morning line's 8.7%; supported by: top barn (34%) + jockey (33%) at 8-1 (a hot trainer-jockey pairing; on our own re-test it did not beat its odds)
Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #4 Greely's Gold; pressure from #1 Long Long Time, #5 Cali Cream; and works against #1 Long Long Time, #4 Greely's Gold, #5 Cali Cream.

Lead
4Greely's Gold931Long Long Time915Cali Cream91
Press
7Brienz863Canoga846Private Debbie82
Stalk
2Irresistible80
Close
none

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

4
Greely's Gold
93
1
Long Long Time
91
5
Cali Cream
91
7
Brienz
86
3
Canoga
84
6
Private Debbie
82
2
Irresistible
80

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

7
Brienz
15
4
Greely's Gold
13
5
Cali Cream
11
2
Irresistible
6
1
Long Long Time
3
3
Canoga
3
6
Private Debbie
3
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