R4 Remington Park · Claiming $7,500

8:54 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $11,500 · 6 runners8:54 PM · 6f Dirt · 6 runners

Upcoming $12K · Claiming $7,500

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Air of Ghurair▼L. Quinonez · J. CastellanosQuinonez · CastellanosB67 62 60▲▲+10@trip 605-1Fair 10-110%▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best67 62 60@trip 60B▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 79

Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 60 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 62 60

▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 79

Jockey L S Quinonez 31% career 3-for-19 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Jaime Castellanos 28% career 0-for-22 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Trainer R1: Ihavetoomuchair 5-1, R7: Big Bernie 5-1

Jky 9/50 from post 1

Drops from $10,000 claiming to $7,500 claiming. Best recent figure is 67, well under the 79 par for this level.

PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 0)

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 24d back

RECORD Not on the board in 3 starts here

RECORD L S Quinonez from post 1 here: 9 wins, 21 top-3 in 50 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	RP	6½f D	Clm 10k n2l	4th/9 -3½L	67	52-1	L	Rallied; 4w; no threat
9/17	RP	1m D	Clm 10k n2l	6th/8 -8½L	62	78-1	b L	Mild rally; no threat
8/22	RP	6½f D	Clm 10k n2l	6th/9 -6¼L	60	79-1	b L	Pinchd bck;4w;7w upr

2Fire in My Sul▼E. Asmussen · S. AsmussenAsmussen · AsmussenA37 68 79▼▼-37↕@trip 793-1Fair 7-221%▼▼ Big drop -3737 68 79 ↕@trip 79A▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (37 vs 68)2

Card model 21% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -37 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 37–79 · Best fig at today's trip 79 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 37 68 79

▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (37 vs 68)

Jockey Erik Asmussen 34% career ★ 29-for-103 on dirt this meet (28%), #1 of 28 · Trainer Steven M Asmussen 36% career ★ 31-for-129 on dirt this meet (24%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Big Tech 5-2, R2: Sykes 3-1, R3: Authentic Kitten 8-5, R5: Potentiator 5-2 +4 more · Trainer R1: Big Tech 5-2, R2: Just Epic 8-1, R2: Sykes 3-1, R3: Promptly 5-2 +9 more

Beaten 19 lengths for 9th in a 9-horse $20,000 claiming race at RP. Figures have slipped: 79, 68, 37 over its last three.

EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 32d back)

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 4 starts here

RECORD Erik Asmussen from post 2 here: 17 wins, 31 top-3 in 51 rides · 27% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/14	RP	6½f D	Clm 20k n3l	9th/9 -19L	37	19-1	b L	2w; drop back; stopped
2/27	OP	6f D	Clm 20k n2l	6th/7 -10L	68	6.6-1	b L	Veer out bmp early; 2p
1/3	DED	7f D	Alw n1x	6th/7 -2½L	79	31-1	b L	Early pc; tired1/4

3It's a Rainy Day▼▼M. Fuentes · C. CunninghamFuentes · CunninghamB53 28 45▲▲+21↕@trip 6812-1Fair 15-16%▲▲ Big jump +2153 28 45 ↕@trip 68B▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 79▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +21 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 22–53 · Best fig at today's trip 68 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 53 28 45

▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 79▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey Mario Fuentes 30% career 5-for-34 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Carl A Cunningham 28% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet

0/5 board here

A 53 is the high figure lately, short of the 79 par. Finished 7th in a 7-horse $7,500 claiming race at RP, beaten 11 lengths.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 0)

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 151d ago

RECORD Not on the board in 5 starts here

RECORD Mario Fuentes from post 3 here: 1 win, 5 top-3 in 18 rides · 7% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/3	RP	5½f D	Clm 7k n2l	7th/7 -11L	53	93-1	b L	Sttld bk; no rally
8/22	RP	1m D	Clm 5k b	10th/10 -28L	28	81-1	b L	Ins;no factor
7/1	FMT	4f D	Alw n1x	5th/6 -7¼L	45	25-1	b L	Outrun early; chased

4Brass Nucks★F. Wethey Jr. · S. YoungWethey Jr. · YoungA61 78 79▼▼-18@trip 809-5Fair 9-535%▼▼ Big drop -1861 78 79@trip 80A★ Best at the trip 801

Card model 35% · Fair odds 9-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -18 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 61 78 79

★ Best at the trip 80

Jockey Floyd Jr Wethey 11-for-76 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Scott E Young 30% career 4-for-46 on dirt this meet (9%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Husker Cat 5-1, R5: Royalist 15-1, R9: Floras Ora 9-2 · Trainer R2: Husker Cat 5-1, this race: Fair Hope 6-1, R8: Cali Cream 8-1

CLASS UP★ FASTEST WORK

Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here. Goes 6 furlongs after running -7½ furlongs last time.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 6)

WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.20 on Jun 12 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	RP	-7½f T	Clm 30k n2l	9th/9 -4L	61	7.3-1	b L	Stalked; 2w; gave way
9/26	RP	6f D	Clm 7k n2lc	2nd/6 by hd	78	1.4-1	b L	Dueled; 2w; hung late
7/10	LS	6½f D	MCL 7kc	Won/6	79	1.7-1	b L	Pace 2path; driving

5Quality StyleR. Diaz · J. CaldwellDiaz · CaldwellA66 43 71▲+4↕5-2Fair 9-219%▲ Up +466 43 71 ↕A3

Card model 19% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +4 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 43–72 · Last 3 figs 66 43 71

Jockey Rene Diaz 33% career 7-for-65 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer J R Caldwell 31% career 3-for-23 on dirt this meet (13%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Going For Dough 10-1, R3: Swiftliketaylor 12-1, R6: Jackman's Ride 5-2, R8: Brienz 10-1 · Trainer R2: Going For Dough 10-1, R6: Jackman's Ride 5-2

CLASS UP

Class relief: $30,000 claiming last time, $7,500 claiming today. A longer trip: 5 furlongs last out, 6 furlongs today.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 203d back)

RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 4 starts here

RECORD Rene Diaz from post 5 here: 10 wins, 28 top-3 in 65 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/10	RP	5f D	Clm 30k n2l	6th/6 -4¾L	66	20-1	b L	Vied 2w; gave way
8/22	RP	6½f D	Clm 10k n2l	9th/9 -9¼L	43	1.5-1	b L	Stmbld;duel btwn;faded
7/11	LS	1m T	Alw n2l	6th/10 -2½L	71	8.3-1	b L	Prompt;bid 2nd;falterd

6Fair Hope▼E. Valdez-Jiminez · S. YoungValdez-Jiminez · YoungB44 52 69▼▼-14↕@trip 716-1Fair 8-110%▼▼ Big drop -1444 52 69 ↕@trip 71B▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 79

Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -14 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 44–69 · Best fig at today's trip 71 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 44 52 69

▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 79

Jockey Ernesto Valdez-Jiminez 31% career 6-for-58 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Scott E Young 30% career 4-for-46 on dirt this meet (9%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Lexizz 10-1, R3: It's Time For Zima 5-1, R5: Fuel 5-1 · Trainer R2: Husker Cat 5-1, this race: Brass Nucks 9-5, R8: Cali Cream 8-1

CLASS UP

Trending the wrong way on speed, 69 to 52 to 44. 0 for 5 at today's distance.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Mar 19 (5F in 1:00.40), 0 works in 30d

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

RECORD Ernesto Valdez-Jiminez from post 6 here: 4 wins, 16 top-3 in 50 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/15	RP	5f D	Clm 20k n2l	8th/8 -15L	44	14-1	L	Lunged start;no factor
9/26	RP	6f D	Clm 7k n2l	6th/6 -3L	52	6.6-1	L	Duel inside; gave way;
9/3	RP	5½f D	Clm 7k n2l	3rd/7 -2L	69	8.3-1	L	Dueled ins; held 3rd

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

REMINGTON PARK · RACE 4

UPCOMING

Claiming $7,500

Field

6 runners

Purse

$11,500

Post

8:54 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#4 · 35%

Claiming $7,500, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won two races lifetime.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 68.0

The shape is the story here: 5 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #4 Brass Nucks (early speed, M/L 9-5). Recent figures: 61 · 78 · 79. It needs to turn the form around after a flat last start. Backup is #2 Fire In My Sul at 3-1. Use #5 Quality Style in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #4 BRASS NUCKS (9-5) — our number agrees.
#4 BRASS NUCKS — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (28.4% to their 27.9%).
#5 QUALITY STYLE — our #3 number, about right at the windows (22.5% to their 22.3%).
#2 FIRE IN MY SUL — our #2 number, about right at the windows (20.6% to their 19.5%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #4 Brass Nucks; pressure from #5 Quality Style, #6 Fair Hope; and works against #1 Air Of Ghurair, #3 It's A Rainy Day, #4 Brass Nucks.

Lead

4Brass Nucks905Quality Style906Fair Hope823It's A Rainy Day791Air Of Ghurair68

Press

none

Stalk

2Fire In My Sul91

none

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Fire In My Sul

Brass Nucks

Quality Style

Fair Hope

It's A Rainy Day

Air Of Ghurair

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Fair Hope

Air Of Ghurair

Fire In My Sul

Quality Style

It's A Rainy Day

Brass Nucks

-1

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