R1 Remington Park · Claiming $7,500

7:30 PM ET · 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · $12,000 · 9 runners7:30 PM · 5½f Dirt · 9 runners

Upcoming $12K · Claiming $7,500

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles
  1. 1Pollito Tito▼C. Fletcher · S. DavisFletcher · DavisB73 45 69▲▲+10↕@trip 7612-1Fair 10-18%▲▲ Big jump +1073 45 69 ↕@trip 76B▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 813

    Card model 8% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 45–76 · Best fig at today's trip 76 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 45 69

    ▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 81
    Jockey Cassidy D B Fletcher 17% career 0-for-10 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Steve D Davis 33% career 2-for-13 on dirt this meet (15%)
    CLASS DROP0/3 board here

    Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field. Finished 4th in a 7-horse $7,500 claiming race at RP, beaten 6 lengths.

    PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 36 days ago
    RECORD Not on the board in 3 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/15RP6½f DClm 7k b4th/7 -6L7358-1LInside turn; no threat
    10/1RP1m DClm 30k n3l7th/7 -21L4540-1LBmp brk;2p2nd;no bid
    8/21RP6f DClm 7k n3lc7th/10 -7L694.9-1L3w;8w upr;lackd kick
  2. 2Close Call▲★R. Vazquez · B. CasterVazquez · CasterA83 69 61▲▲+18↕@trip 833-1Fair 4-120%▲▲ Big jump +18 · career best83 69 61 ↕@trip 83A▲ Last fig 83 at/above par 81★ Best at the trip 831

    Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +18 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 61–83 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 83 69 61

    ▲ Last fig 83 at/above par 81★ Best at the trip 83
    Jockey R A Vazquez 33% career 13-for-70 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Boyd Caster 27% career 1-for-6 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R3: Epic Selloff 6-1, R5: McKinsense 6-1, R6: Let's Go Mark 7-2, R7: U. S. Army 6-1 +2 more
    ★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST3/5 board here

    Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 83, with 79 next best. Comes in off a victory in a 7-horse $7,500 claiming race at RP.

    PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
    SHARP LAST OUT Duel2w; drew away late last out, and it did it the right way.
    WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.80 on Sep 18 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d
    RECORD 2 wins, 3 on the board from 5 starts here
    RECORD R A Vazquez from post 2 here: 11 wins, 26 top-3 in 42 rides · 26% wins from all posts here
    RECORD Grays/roans win 11% here vs 13% for all horses (623 starts)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/3RP5½f DClm 7k n2lWon/78310-1b LDuel2w;drew away late
    10/30RP5f DClm 10k n2l2nd/7 -4L6911-1b LChased; 2w; 2nd best
    10/10RP5½f DClm 7k n2l4th/7 -3L619.5-1b LRallied; 5w; no threat
  3. 3WoodspointT. Bacon · O. FloresBacon · FloresB79 65 74▲+6@trip 666-1Fair 8-111%▲ Up +6 · career best79 65 74@trip 66B

    Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +6 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 66 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 65 74

    Jockey Tyler W Bacon 32% career 10-for-60 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Oscar Flores 33% career 6-for-50 on dirt this meet (12%)
    Also today · Jockey R5: Hitchcock 9-2, R6: Hola Joey 5-1, R7: Getaway Car 2-1 · Trainer R5: Hitchcock 9-2
    CLASS DROP

    Raises its level, $5,000 claiming last time and $7,500 claiming now. Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 91).

    PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 6)
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 83 days ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/27RP5f DClm 5k b2nd/6793.2-1LDuel 2w; weakened late
    9/17RP6f DClm 7k n3l4th/7 -6L651.6-1L3w turn; faltered;
    8/15PRM6f DClm 10k n3l5th/11 -1¼L745.4-1LBVied ins;wkn final fur
  4. 4Nacho BarR. Huckaby · T. MurphyHuckaby · MurphyA71 78 57►↕@trip 787-2Fair 6-114%► Steady71 78 57 ↕@trip 78A

    Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #7 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 57–78 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 78 57

    Jockey Ronnie Huckaby 22% career 2-for-45 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer Travis Swan Murphy 31% career 1-for-7 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R2: Putnam Market 9-2, R6: Wearacap 8-1, R7: Board Of Directors 6-1
    ★ FASTEST WORK

    Last out was 3rd, 2 lengths behind the winner, in a 5-horse $10,000 claiming race at RP. Was running in $10,000 claiming; today's $7,500 claiming is an easier level on paper.

    PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
    WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.00 on Oct 22 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d
    RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 5 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/1RP5½f DClm 10k n3l3rd/5 -2L711.6-1LDuel;svd gnd;gave way
    8/27RP5½f DClm 10k n3l3rd/6 by nk783.0-1LPinch; 4w; hung late
    2/2WRD6f DAlw n1x7th/8 -9¼L5727-1LShowed little
  5. 5Ihavetoomuchair▼L. Luzzi · J. CastellanosLuzzi · CastellanosB69 67 67▲+55-1Fair 7-112%▲ Up +569 67 67B▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 81

    Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +5 · Last 3 figs 69 67 67

    ▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 81
    Jockey Lane J Luzzi 27% career 2-for-28 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer Jaime Castellanos 28% career 0-for-22 on dirt this meet (0%)
    Also today · Jockey R3: Sneaking A Kiss 8-1, R9: Balmorhea 12-1 · Trainer R4: Air Of Ghurair 5-1, R7: Big Bernie 5-1
    CLASS DROP0/4 board here

    Shortens up to 5½ furlongs after going 7 furlongs. A 69 is the high figure lately, short of the 81 par.

    PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
    WORKS SHARP 3f in :35.40 on Apr 23 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d
    RECORD Not on the board in 4 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/10RP7f DClm 7k n3l4th/96941-1b LChased; 2w; led;hung
    8/22RP1m DClm 20k n3l6th/8 -11L6737-1b LBack 2w;no bid
    7/5LS1m DsClm7500n2lWon/10 by 16712-1b LSttld;bid6-7w;drw clr
  6. 6Pilot's Creed▼LSG. Franko-Angeles · R. FuentesFranko-Angeles · FuentesC72 66 68▲+3≡@trip 6312-1Fair 12-18%▲ Up +3 · career best72 66 68 ≡@trip 63C▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 81LS

    Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #4 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +3 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 66–72 · Best fig at today's trip 63 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 66 68

    ▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 81LS

    Longshot read: 12-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 8% against a line of 6%. A read, not a bet.

    Jockey Geovanni Franko-Angeles · Trainer Ruben Fuentes 30% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R3: Promptly 5-2, R7: Mandolin Wind 12-1, R8: Canoga 5-1, R9: Jocasta 4-1
    WON LAST

    Gets a new rider, Geovanni Franko-Angeles replacing Luis A Fuentes. Winner of a 6-horse $10,000 claiming race at PRM last time.

    PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 89d back)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/20PRM6f DsClm10000n2lWon/6 by 2½721.7-1LBBid 5/16p;up late
    9/3CBY5f TClm 7k bc3rd/8 -3L661.6-1LTrack;svd gnd;improved
    8/15CBY5f TAlw b4th/6 -2¾L685.3-1LBtw 2w; best of rest
  7. 7County Judge▼▼J. Padron-Barcenas · O. CogburnPadron-Barcenas · CogburnC52 49 66▼-7@trip 7130-1Fair 30-14%▼ Down -752 49 66@trip 71C▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 81▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

    Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -7 · Best fig at today's trip 71 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 52 49 66

    ▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 81▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
    Jockey Javier Padron-Barcenas 21% career 1-for-31 on dirt this meet (3%) · Trainer Orrin L Cogburn 28% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R5: Spooky Action 20-1 · Trainer R5: Koschei 15-1
    CLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORK

    Orrin L Cogburn takes over the training from Jessie W Cowan. Cuts back from 7 furlongs to 5½ furlongs.

    PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 3)
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 162 days ago
    RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 8 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/10RP7f DClm 7k n3l8th/9 -9½L5277-1b L3w; used up; gave way
    8/22RP1m DClm 20k n3l8th/8 -18L4931-1b LLungd;5-6w;tired out
    7/10FMT6½f DClm 10k n3l5th/6 -3L6623-1b L3-4w;lacked rally
  8. 8Big TechE. Asmussen · S. AsmussenAsmussen · AsmussenA73 65 73▲+4≡5-2Fair 4-120%▲ Up +473 65 73 ≡A2

    Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +4 · ≡ Steady figures 65–73 · Last 3 figs 73 65 73

    Jockey Erik Asmussen 34% career ★ 29-for-103 on dirt this meet (28%), #1 of 28 · Trainer Steven M Asmussen 36% career ★ 31-for-129 on dirt this meet (24%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R2: Sykes 3-1, R3: Authentic Kitten 8-5, R4: Fire In My Sul 3-1, R5: Potentiator 5-2 +4 more · Trainer R2: Just Epic 8-1, R2: Sykes 3-1, R3: Promptly 5-2, R3: Authentic Kitten 8-5 +9 more
    CLASS DROPWON LAST

    Back to 5½ furlongs off a 7 furlongs race. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 73 against a 81 par.

    PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
    SHARP LAST OUT Chart comment from the last start: Chased; 2w; drew off.
    WORKS Routine prep: 2 works in 30d, last 22d ago
    RECORD Erik Asmussen from post 8 here: 5 wins, 16 top-3 in 29 rides · 27% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/15RP7f DClm 7k n2lWon/9732.7-1b LChased; 2w; drew off
    9/4RP6f DClm 20k n2l5th/7 -5¾L653.2-1b LHopped start;rail trip
    8/16ELP6f DClm 12k n2l2nd/11736.3-1b L3w;cght 1/16;shy/stdy
  9. 9Fine Tuned▼F. Jara · J. PruittJara · PruittC56 52 65▼-3@trip 6730-1Fair 30-13%▼ Down -356 52 65@trip 67C▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 81

    Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -3 · Best fig at today's trip 67 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 56 52 65

    ▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 81
    Jockey Fernando Jara 31% career 3-for-37 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Jody M Pruitt 28% career 0-for-11 on dirt this meet (0%)
    Also today · Jockey R5: Koschei 15-1, R8: Cali Cream 8-1

    2nd of 17 at 4F on May 27, in :48.20. Fernando Jara takes over from Weston Hamilton in the saddle.

    PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
    WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 10d back
    RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 7 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/17RP6f DClm 7k n3l6th/7 -10L5653-1b LInside; no threat
    8/21RP6f DClm 7k n3l8th/10 -11L5278-1b L4w-ins turn;faded
    7/10FMT6½f DClm 10k n3l6th/6 -7L6520-1b LChased; no factor

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks
1 2 3
Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair
The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?
The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72
Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕
≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★
Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips
Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
¼½FINISHSTART5 1/2 FURLONGS · DIRT · main1-turn

REMINGTON PARK · RACE 1

UPCOMING

Claiming $7,500

Field
9 runners
Purse
$12,000
Post
7:30 PM ET
Pace
Pressed Pace
Card model top pick
#2 · 20%

Claiming $7,500, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won three races lifetime.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 5 1/2 Furlongs: 62.0

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #2 Close Call (a presser/stalker, M/L 3-1). Recent figures: 83 · 69 · 61. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #8 Big Tech at 5-2. Use #1 Pollito Tito in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

  • Market favourite #8 BIG TECH (5-2) — our number has it ranked #2.
  • #8 BIG TECH — our #2 number, about right at the windows (22.1% to their 22.2%).
  • #2 CLOSE CALL — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (20.3% to their 19.4%).
  • #4 NACHO BAR — our #7 number, about right at the windows (15.7% to their 17.3%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

  • The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #3 Woodspoint; pressure from #7 County Judge, #2 Close Call; the shape helps #1 Pollito Tito, #2 Close Call, #4 Nacho Bar; and works against #3 Woodspoint, #7 County Judge.

Lead
3Woodspoint917County Judge80
Press
2Close Call928Big Tech894Nacho Bar886Pilot's Creed87
Stalk
1Pollito Tito845Ihavetoomuchair839Fine Tuned77
Close
none

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

2
Close Call
92
3
Woodspoint
91
8
Big Tech
89
4
Nacho Bar
88
6
Pilot's Creed
87
1
Pollito Tito
84
5
Ihavetoomuchair
83
7
County Judge
80
9
Fine Tuned
77

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

6
Pilot's Creed
20
1
Pollito Tito
16
8
Big Tech
16
3
Woodspoint
9
9
Fine Tuned
9
5
Ihavetoomuchair
8
7
County Judge
8
4
Nacho Bar
6
2
Close Call
2
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