R3 Remington Park · Maiden Special Weight

8:26 PM ET · 1 Mile Turf · $38,000 · 7 runners8:26 PM · 1m Turf · 7 runners

Upcoming $38K · Maiden Special Weight

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1PromptlyG. Franko-Angeles · S. AsmussenFranko-Angeles · AsmussenA715-2Fair 4-121%—71A3
Card model 21% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 71
Jockey Geovanni Franko-Angeles · Trainer Steven M Asmussen 36% career 8-for-42 on turf this meet (19%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Pilot's Creed 12-1, R7: Mandolin Wind 12-1, R8: Canoga 5-1, R9: Jocasta 4-1 · Trainer R1: Big Tech 5-2, R2: Just Epic 8-1, R2: Sykes 3-1, this race: Authentic Kitten 8-5 +9 more
60D LAYOFF
Class relief: maiden special weight last time, maiden special weight today. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 6)
TROUBLED TRIP Pace; 2p upr; faltered last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 2 works in 30d, last 17d back
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
8/9 ELP 1 1/16 T MSW 7th/12 -1½L 71 22-1 L Pace; 2p upr; faltered

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/9	ELP	1 1/16 T	MSW	7th/12 -1½L	71	22-1	L	Pace; 2p upr; faltered

2Epic SelloffR. Vazquez · A. GustafsonVazquez · GustafsonA69 50 77►↕6-1Fair 5-116%► Steady69 50 77 ↕A2

Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 50–77 · Last 3 figs 69 50 77

Jockey R A Vazquez 33% career ★ 6-for-29 on turf this meet (21%) · Trainer Austin Gustafson 34% career 2-for-11 on turf this meet (18%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Close Call 3-1, R5: McKinsense 6-1, R6: Let's Go Mark 7-2, R7: U. S. Army 6-1 +2 more · Trainer R8: Greely's Gold 8-1

Austin Gustafson takes over the training from William E Morey. Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 37 days ago

RECORD R A Vazquez from post 2 here: 11 wins, 26 top-3 in 42 rides · 26% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/1	RP	1m D	MSW	3rd/7 -3L	69	2.9-1	L	Stalk;2-3p;chase on
8/21	SAR	1m D	MSW	6th/7 -19L	50	17-1	b L	Chased 4-5w; faltered
7/10	SAR	1 1/16 T	MCL 100kc	7th/8 -6¾L	77	5.6-1	L	Stumbled brk;ins turns

3Mrs YorkeS. Elliott · M. WillisElliott · Willis?8-1Fair 15-16%—Debut?
Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier ?
Jockey S Elliott 35% career 0-for-36 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Mindy Willis 35% career 0-for-24 on turf this meet (0%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R2: Just Epic 8-1, R5: Knick The Quick 9-2, R7: Presidential 3-1, R8: Irresistible 2-1 +1 more · Trainer R9: Cafezinho 12-1
Unraced so far; the pedigree is Astern out of Ella's Glory. This barn has 54 first-time starters on record and wins 9% of them.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 9d ago
RECORD S Elliott from post 3 here: 28 wins, 73 top-3 in 131 rides · 19% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Astern out of Ella's Glory (Honour and Glory)
Trainer M. Willis: 1st-time starters: 9% wins, 26% in the money (54 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 10% wins, 22% in the money (40 starts) · Maiden special weights: 12% wins, 33% in the money (178 starts)
Jockey S. Elliott in turf: 32 wins from 182 (18%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/21 RP 5f 1:01.40 handily 5/14 from gate
9/19 RP 5f 1:01.80 handily 5/27
9/11 RP 6f 1:16.00 handily 2/4
8/29 RP 5f 1:02.60 handily 8/24
8/15 RP 4f :49.20 handily 14/118 from gate
4It's Time For ZimaE. Valdez-Jiminez · T. EoffValdez-Jiminez · EoffB72 62 30▲▲+22@trip 625-1Fair 7-112%▲▲ Big jump +22 · career best72 62 30@trip 62B
Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +22 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 62 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 62 30
Jockey Ernesto Valdez-Jiminez 31% career 4-for-23 on turf this meet (17%) · Trainer Terry Eoff 24% career 1-for-9 on turf this meet (11%)
Also today · Jockey R2: Lexizz 10-1, R4: Fair Hope 6-1, R5: Fuel 5-1 · Trainer R6: Gold Front 8-1, R9: Flyin Withthe Boss 15-1
Goes a mile after running -8 furlongs last time. Has moved up each time out, 30 to 62 to 72.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 8)
WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 13d ago
RECORD Ernesto Valdez-Jiminez from post 4 here: 3 wins, 15 top-3 in 40 rides · 12% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/4 RP -8f T MSW 3rd/9 72 36-1 b L Pace; battled; caught
7/12 LS 1m T MSW 4th/12 -4L 62 32-1 b L 4w1st;closer3w2nd;flat
6/7 LS 1m D MSW 8th/8 -13L 30 7.7-1 b L Pace; faded
5Authentic Kitten★E. Asmussen · S. AsmussenAsmussen · AsmussenA72 75 57▲▲+10↕@trip 758-5Fair 5-230%▲▲ Big jump +1072 75 57 ↕@trip 75A★ Best at the trip 751
Card model 30% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 54–75 · Best fig at today's trip 75 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 75 57
★ Best at the trip 75
Jockey Erik Asmussen 34% career ★ 9-for-39 on turf this meet (23%), #3 of 21 · Trainer Steven M Asmussen 36% career 8-for-42 on turf this meet (19%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Big Tech 5-2, R2: Sykes 3-1, R4: Fire In My Sul 3-1, R5: Potentiator 5-2 +4 more · Trainer R1: Big Tech 5-2, R2: Just Epic 8-1, R2: Sykes 3-1, this race: Promptly 5-2 +9 more
60D LAYOFF
A step up in company: maiden special weight before, maiden special weight today. Jockey switch: Alexander Castillo last out, Erik Asmussen today.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 8)
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Jul 6 (4F in :50.00), 1 work in 30d
RECORD Erik Asmussen from post 5 here: 12 wins, 23 top-3 in 40 rides · 27% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
8/4 LAD 1m T MSW 2nd/9 72 0.5-1 L Took ovr;drift;no mtch
7/12 LS 1m T MSW 3rd/12 by hd 75 6.4-1 b L Pace;dug in;gamely
6/7 LS 1m D MSW 4th/8 -2L 57 0.3-1 b L Flattened out

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/21	RP	5f	1:01.40	handily	5/14	from gate
9/19	RP	5f	1:01.80	handily	5/27
9/11	RP	6f	1:16.00	handily	2/4
8/29	RP	5f	1:02.60	handily	8/24
8/15	RP	4f	:49.20	handily	14/118	from gate

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/4	RP	-8f T	MSW	3rd/9	72	36-1	b L	Pace; battled; caught
7/12	LS	1m T	MSW	4th/12 -4L	62	32-1	b L	4w1st;closer3w2nd;flat
6/7	LS	1m D	MSW	8th/8 -13L	30	7.7-1	b L	Pace; faded

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/4	LAD	1m T	MSW	2nd/9	72	0.5-1	L	Took ovr;drift;no mtch
7/12	LS	1m T	MSW	3rd/12 by hd	75	6.4-1	b L	Pace;dug in;gamely
6/7	LS	1m D	MSW	4th/8 -2L	57	0.3-1	b L	Flattened out

6Swiftliketaylor▼LSR. Diaz · R. CravensDiaz · CravensB55 65 63▼▼-10@trip 6312-1Fair 12-18%▼▼ Big drop -1055 65 63@trip 63B▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 74LS

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · Best fig at today's trip 63 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 55 65 63

▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 74LS

Longshot read: 12-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 8% against a line of 6%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Rene Diaz 33% career 0-for-24 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Ronnie Iii Cravens 3-for-18 on turf this meet (17%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Going For Dough 10-1, R4: Quality Style 5-2, R6: Jackman's Ride 5-2, R8: Brienz 10-1 · Trainer R2: Lexizz 10-1, R5: Fuel 5-1

2/3 board here

Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 66 against a 74 par. 8th last time, 4½ lengths back, in a field of 10.

EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 69d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

RECORD Rene Diaz from post 6 here: 8 wins, 18 top-3 in 54 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	RP	-8½f T	MCL 20k	8th/10 -4½L	55	4.6-1	b L	4w 2nd turn; no threat
9/24	RP	7½f T	MCL 20k	2nd/10 by nk	65	2.3-1	b L	Settled; 3w; 2nd best
8/29	RP	1m T	MCL 30k	2nd/9	63	1.9-1	b L	Stalk; 3w; led; hung

7Sneaking a Kiss▼L. Luzzi · T. AshfordLuzzi · AshfordB63 52 45▲▲+148-1Fair 12-17%▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best63 52 45B▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 74
Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best · Last 3 figs 63 52 45
▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 74
Jockey Lane J Luzzi 27% career 1-for-18 on turf this meet (6%) · Trainer Tristan Ashford 34% career 1-for-11 on turf this meet (9%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Ihavetoomuchair 5-1, R9: Balmorhea 12-1 · Trainer R5: P R Bullet 12-1, R9: Balmorhea 12-1
0/3 board here
Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf. Figures are climbing: 45, 52, 63 over its last three.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 27d ago
RECORD Not on the board in 3 starts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/15 RP 6f D MSW 4th/7 -5¼L 63 26-1 L Chased; 2w; no menace
9/11 RP 5½f D fsMdSpWt 6th/11 -8½L 52 39-1 L Rallied; 5w; no threat
12/13 RP 5½f D fsMdSpWt 5th/9 -5½L 45 16-1 Even effort

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/15	RP	6f D	MSW	4th/7 -5¼L	63	26-1	L	Chased; 2w; no menace
9/11	RP	5½f D	fsMdSpWt	6th/11 -8½L	52	39-1	L	Rallied; 5w; no threat
12/13	RP	5½f D	fsMdSpWt	5th/9 -5½L	45	16-1		Even effort

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: honest. Speed from #1, #4, #5.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

REMINGTON PARK · RACE 3

UPCOMING

Maiden Special Weight

Field

7 runners

Purse

$38,000

Post

8:26 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#5 · 30%

Maiden Special Weight, for fillies and mares, 5-year-olds.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

● Track record at 1 Mile: 95.2

The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #5 Authentic Kitten (early speed, M/L 8-5). Recent figures: 72 · 75 · 57. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #2 Epic Selloff at 6-1. Use #1 Promptly in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #5 AUTHENTIC KITTEN (8-5) — our number agrees.
#5 AUTHENTIC KITTEN — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (29.5% to their 30.1%).
#1 PROMPTLY — our #3 number, about right at the windows (22.2% to their 22.3%).
#2 EPIC SELLOFF — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 13.3%, they've got 11.2%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#2 EPIC SELLOFF — we make it 13.3%, the morning line works out to 11.2%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #4 It's Time For Zima; pressure from #1 Promptly, #5 Authentic Kitten; and works against #1 Promptly, #3 Mrs Yorke, #4 It's Time For Zima.

Lead

4It's Time For Zima961Promptly905Authentic Kitten89

Press

none

Stalk

2Epic Selloff836Swiftliketaylor76

none

No style yet

7Sneaking A Kiss873Mrs Yorke

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

It's Time For Zima

Promptly

Authentic Kitten

Epic Selloff

Swiftliketaylor

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Sneaking A Kiss

Epic Selloff

Authentic Kitten

Promptly

Swiftliketaylor

It's Time For Zima

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Bet types

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