R5 Woodbine · Optional Claiming $50,000

2:48 PM ET · 1 1/16 Miles Turf · $125,000 · 8 runners2:48 PM · 1 1/16m Turf · 8 runners

Upcoming $125K · Optional Claiming $50,000

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Noche De Damas▼E. Wilson · W. TharrenosWilson · TharrenosC70 77 78▼-6≡@trip 8420-1Fair 30-14%▼ Down -670 77 78 ≡@trip 84C▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (70 vs 77)

Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -6 · ≡ Steady figures 70–78 · Best fig at today's trip 84 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 70 77 78

▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (70 vs 77)

Jockey Emma Jayne Wilson 30% career 6-for-48 on turf this meet (12%) · Trainer William Tharrenos 35% career 3-for-13 on turf this meet (23%)

Also today · Jockey R6: I Knew I Could 4-1, R7: Vanity 5-2, R8: Willing Guest 4-1, R9: Secretly Delighted 8-5 +2 more · Trainer R2: Dontgobackonurword 6-1, R2: Gran Spirited 5-2, R4: Glint Over Essa 12-1, R6: I Knew I Could 4-1 +1 more

0/3 board here

Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf. Figures have slipped: 78, 77, 70 over its last three.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Check early; trailed. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Aug 9; 1 work in 30d

RECORD Not on the board in 3 starts here

RECORD Emma Jayne Wilson from post 1 here: 22 wins, 58 top-3 in 154 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	WO	1 1/16 D	OC 50k n2l	7th/7 -6¾L	70	29-1	L	Check early;trailed
7/11	WO	1m T	OC 50k n2l	5th/8 -4¾L	77	7.0-1	L	Inside to 1/8; ran on
6/20	WO	1 1/16 T	OC 50k n2l	4th/9 -4¼L	78	15-1	L	Bmp strt;mild close

2GoldleafJ. Campos · R. HaldenCampos · HaldenB81 793-1Fair 4-120%—81 79B2
Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 81 79
Jockey Jose Luis Campos 26% career 4-for-34 on turf this meet (12%) · Trainer Rachel Halden 24% career 3-for-11 on turf this meet (27%), #3 of 25
Also today · Jockey R10: Souper Diva 8-1
WON LAST
Winner of a 9-horse maiden special weight race at WO last time. Stretches out from 7 furlongs to 1 1/16 miles.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.
TROUBLED TRIP Swung 7w; clear; held last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 7d ago
RECORD Jose Luis Campos from post 2 here: 14 wins, 71 top-3 in 212 rides · 9% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/10 WO 7f T MSW Won/9 81 6.4-1 L Swung 7w;clear;held
8/29 WO 7f D MSW 4th/7 -6L 79 7.5-1 L Bump st;briefrun3W3/16

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	WO	7f T	MSW	Won/9	81	6.4-1	L	Swung 7w;clear;held
8/29	WO	7f D	MSW	4th/7 -6L	79	7.5-1	L	Bump st;briefrun3W3/16

3Majaz★R. Hernandez · M. CasseHernandez · CasseA77 75 90▼▼-8@trip 898-5Fair 9-537%▼▼ Big drop -877 75 90@trip 89A★ Best at the trip 891

Card model 37% · Fair odds 9-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · Best fig at today's trip 89 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 75 90

★ Best at the trip 89

Jockey Rafael Manuel Hernandez 38% career ★ 10-for-50 on turf this meet (20%), #3 of 26 · Trainer Mark Casse 36% career ★ 13-for-61 on turf this meet (21%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Your Valentino 3-1, R4: Whitemudwest 7-2, R7: Madame Obey 12-1, R8: Glorious Gem 9-5 +2 more · Trainer R7: War Signal 8-1, R7: Vanity 5-2, R8: Willing Guest 4-1, R8: Ez Miss Sassy 5-2 +2 more

★ FASTEST WORK

Tops the field on speed figures, a 90 against 85 for the next best. Rafael Manuel Hernandez takes over from J J Castellano in the saddle.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 62d ago

RECORD Rafael Manuel Hernandez from post 3 here: 59 wins, 143 top-3 in 262 rides · 21% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	BEL	1⅛m T	Alw n1x	8th/10 -2¾L	77	6.2-1	L	3-4path;bid5/16;empty
9/7	SAR	1m T	Alw n1x	3rd/6	75	5.2-1	L	4w upper; led; kept on
8/13	SAR	1 3/16 T	OC 55k n1x	3rd/6 by hd	90	2.2-1	L	4-3w uppr; repelled

4Tap My DesireK. Nicholls · P. HallNicholls · HallC80 76 74▲+3≡@trip 7612-1Fair 20-15%▲ Up +380 76 74 ≡@trip 76C

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +3 · ≡ Steady figures 74–82 · Best fig at today's trip 76 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 76 74

Jockey Keveh Nicholls 30% career 2-for-24 on turf this meet (8%) · Trainer Philip Hall 30% career 0-for-5 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Big Baby Henry 7-2, R4: Maria Sofia 5-2 · Trainer R6: Forever Grateful 6-1

7/10 board here

Raises its level, optional claiming last time and allowance optional claiming now. A longer trip: 7 furlongs last out, 1 1/16 miles today.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 6d back

RECORD 1 win, 7 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD Keveh Nicholls from post 4 here: 14 wins, 58 top-3 in 134 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/1	WO	7f T	OC 40k v	2nd/9 -3L	80	7.0-1	L	Sqzd st;trail;surging
9/12	WO	1 1/16 T	OC 40k	3rd/8 by nk	76	8.1-1	L	Early move around3/8
8/20	WO	7f T	OC 40k	3rd/9 -3¾L	74	3.1-1	L	Awk brk;angled 6-7w

5ArethaP. Moran · K. AttardMoran · AttardA77 83 85▼-6≡4-1Fair 5-116%▼ Down -677 83 85 ≡A3

Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -6 · ≡ Steady figures 77–85 · Last 3 figs 77 83 85

Jockey Pietro Moran 32% career 15-for-76 on turf this meet (20%) · Trainer Kevin Attard 33% career 5-for-50 on turf this meet (10%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Edey 8-5, R2: Dontgobackonurword 6-1, R4: Glint Over Essa 12-1, R6: Family Love 5-2 +4 more · Trainer R3: Paddy Holiday 3-1, R8: Ghost Striker 10-1, R8: Annastaij 8-1

2/4 board here

Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here. Trending the wrong way on speed, 85 to 83 to 77.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 20 (4F in :47.60), 2 works in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 4 starts here

RECORD Pietro Moran from post 5 here: 32 wins, 108 top-3 in 214 rides · 18% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	WO	1 1/16 D	OC 50k n2l	3rd/7 -3½L	77	2.8-1	L	Mildly;non-threat 3rd
8/29	WO	1m T	TorontoCp Stk	5th/7 -3L	83	5.3-1		3-4w;fan 7w;kept on
7/25	WO	1m T	OntColln G3	6th/8 -1½L	85	2.3-1		3P3/16in range;flatten

6Faith Understood▼J. Alderson · S. ChircopAlderson · ChircopB70 83 84▼▼-14@trip 8215-1Fair 30-13%▼▼ Big drop -1470 83 84@trip 82B▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -14 · Best fig at today's trip 82 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 70 83 84

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey Jeffrey Ian Alderson 28% career ★ 5-for-20 on turf this meet (25%), #1 of 26 · Trainer Steven Chircop 30% career 1-for-14 on turf this meet (7%)

Also today · Jockey R6: Flatter Effect 2-1, R7: Talent Show 6-1, R9: Lively Up 12-1, R10: Earendel 20-1 +1 more · Trainer R1: Twist Of Sugar 2-1, R4: Karat Gold 2-1, R10: Souper Diva 8-1, R10: Rock Hard Rose 3-1 +1 more

Winless in 5 starts at this distance. Shortens up to 1 1/16 miles after going 1 1/4 miles.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 7d back

RECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 7 starts here

RECORD Jeffrey Ian Alderson from post 6 here: 10 wins, 29 top-3 in 87 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/1	WO	1¼m T	OC 50k n2l	6th/7 -6¾L	70	7.5-1	L	Last turn;pass one
9/19	WO	1m T	OC 50k n2l	3rd/11 -4¼L	83	35-1	L	Inside to str; up show
8/22	WO	1 1/16 D	OC 50k n2l	2nd/5 -1L	84	11-1	L	4W-3Wturns;up wire2nd

7Pharoah's AffairLSF. Aebly · K. VassilievaAebly · VassilievaA77 83 82▼-5≡8-1Fair 10-19%▼ Down -577 83 82 ≡ALS

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -5 · ≡ Steady figures 77–83 · Last 3 figs 77 83 82

Longshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 9% against a line of 9%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Fraser Aebly 32% career 10-for-70 on turf this meet (14%) · Trainer Katerina Vassilieva 31% career 2-for-8 on turf this meet (25%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Twist Of Sugar 2-1, R3: Paddy Holiday 3-1, R4: Karat Gold 2-1, R7: War Signal 8-1 +2 more

4/5 board here

Owns the highest recent figure here at 90. Switches from dirt to turf.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 28d back)

RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD Fraser Aebly from post 7 here: 30 wins, 71 top-3 in 189 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	WO	1 1/16 D	OC 50k n2l	2nd/7	77	3.3-1	L	Took lead1/8;need more
9/19	WO	1m T	OC 50k n2l	6th/11 -1¼L	83	6.0-1	L	Chased;2-3w;no kick
8/16	WO	1⅛m D	MSW	Won/6	82	0.5-1	L	Bumps early; off rail

8Go OliviaJ. Hoyte · J. LayHoyte · LayB81 76 83►≡6-1Fair 12-18%► Steady81 76 83 ≡B

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 76–84 · Last 3 figs 81 76 83

Jockey Jason Hoyte 23% career 2-for-9 on turf this meet (22%) · Trainer Jordan B Lay 14% career 0-for-4 on turf this meet

CLASS DROP3/6 board here

2nd last time, 1 length back, in a field of 7. Was 6th of 7 at the first call last time.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 34d back)

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 6 starts here

RECORD Jason Hoyte from post 8 here: 2 wins, 9 top-3 in 45 rides · 7% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/17	WO	7½f T	OC 32k n1x	2nd/7 -1L	81	3.7-1	Rail rally1/8;almost
10/1	WO	1¼m T	OC 50k n2l	5th/7 -1¼L	76	5.7-1	To lead3P1/4;tired
9/19	WO	1m T	OC 50k n2l	4th/11 -1L	83	11-1	3-4w;in range 1/4

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

WOODBINE · RACE 5

UPCOMING

Optional Claiming $50,000

Field

8 runners

Purse

$125,000

Post

2:48 PM ET

Pace

Tactical / Honest

Card model top pick

#3 · 37%

Claiming $50,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, that have not won two races other than maiden, claiming, or starter.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 1 1/16 Miles: 100.85

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #3 Majaz (a presser/stalker, M/L 8-5). Recent figures: 77 · 75 · 90. It needs to turn the form around after a flat last start. Backup is #2 Goldleaf at 3-1. Use #5 Aretha in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #3 MAJAZ (8-5) — our number agrees.
#3 MAJAZ — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (30.1% to their 30.2%).
#2 GOLDLEAF — our #2 number, about right at the windows (20.8% to their 19.6%).
#5 ARETHA — our #3 number, about right at the windows (16.8% to their 15.7%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Likely leader: #3 Majaz; pressure from #8 Go Olivia, #7 Pharoah's Affair.

Lead

none

Press

3Majaz858Go Olivia857Pharoah's Affair776Faith Understood74

Stalk

2Goldleaf844Tap My Desire775Aretha74

1Noche De Damas73

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Majaz

Go Olivia

Goldleaf

Tap My Desire

Pharoah's Affair

Aretha

Faith Understood

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Noche De Damas

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