R6 Woodbine · Maiden Optional Claiming $40,000

3:28 PM ET · 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · $71,700 · 8 runners3:28 PM · 5½f Dirt · 8 runners

Upcoming $72K · Maiden Optional Claiming $40,000

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Flatter Effect▼J. Alderson · R. HayashiAlderson · HayashiA592-1Fair 2-131%—59A▼ Best fig 59 is 5+ under today's par 751
Card model 31% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 59
▼ Best fig 59 is 5+ under today's par 75
Jockey Jeffrey Ian Alderson 28% career 6-for-31 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Richard G Hayashi 21% career 2-for-12 on dirt this meet (17%)
Also today · Jockey R5: Faith Understood 15-1, R7: Talent Show 6-1, R9: Lively Up 12-1, R10: Earendel 20-1 +1 more
Jky 11/83 from post 1
Owns the highest recent figure here at 59. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.
EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.
WORKS Routine prep: 2 works in 30d, last 6d ago
RECORD Jeffrey Ian Alderson from post 1 here: 11 wins, 33 top-3 in 83 rides · 9% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/10 WO 6f D Moc40000 2nd/8 59 3.2-1 L Fractious;caught late
2Forever GratefulJ. Crawford · P. HallCrawford · Hall?6-1Fair 10-18%—Debut?
Card model 8% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier ?
Jockey J Crawford 30% career 1-for-19 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Philip Hall 30% career 2-for-19 on dirt this meet (11%)
Also today · Jockey R11: Momanda 12-1 · Trainer R5: Tap My Desire 12-1
Debut for this Point Of Entry filly, whose dam is Grateful Praise. It has been schooling from the gate (latest Sep 27).
EVEN PACE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 13d back)
RECORD J Crawford from post 2 here: 8 wins, 27 top-3 in 77 rides · 9% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Point of Entry out of Grateful Praise (Alternation)
Trainer P. Hall: 1st-time starters: 0% wins, 19% in the money (16 starts) · 2-year-olds: 6% wins, 31% in the money (49 starts)
Jockey J. Crawford in sprints: 36 wins from 191 (19%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/18 WO 4f :49.40 breezing 38/83
10/4 WO 4f :48.60 breezing 31/81
9/27 WO 4f :50.00 breezing 56/71 from gate
9/20 WO 4f :49.60 breezing 47/75
9/13 WO 4f :48.80 breezing 18/57
3Family LoveP. Moran · D. DesruisseauxMoran · Desruisseaux?5-2Fair 7-222%—Debut?2
Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier ?
Jockey Pietro Moran 32% career 16-for-87 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Dale A Desruisseaux 31% career 0-for-12 on dirt this meet (0%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Edey 8-5, R2: Dontgobackonurword 6-1, R4: Glint Over Essa 12-1, R5: Aretha 4-1 +4 more · Trainer R8: Glorious Gem 9-5
Debut for a trainer who is 17% with first-timers, over 42 starts. On Oct 11 it was 3rd of 27 at 3F (:35.60).
EVEN PACE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS Average work schedule for this field (3 works in 30d, last 10d ago)
RECORD Pietro Moran from post 3 here: 44 wins, 116 top-3 in 201 rides · 18% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Practical Joke out of Lots to Like (Speightstown)
Trainer D. Desruisseaux: 1st-time starters: 17% wins, 38% in the money (42 starts) · 2-year-olds: 21% wins, 51% in the money (96 starts)
Jockey P. Moran in sprints: 66 wins from 343 (19%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/21 WO 5f 1:03.00 breezing 6/7
10/11 WO 3f :35.60 breezing 3/27 from gate
10/3 WO 4f :48.00 breezing 8/73
9/26 WO 3f :37.20 breezing 6/8
9/19 WO 3f :40.00 breezing 9/10
4I Knew I Could▼E. Wilson · W. TharrenosWilson · TharrenosA314-1Fair 9-218%—31A▼ Best fig 31 is 5+ under today's par 753
Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #3 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 31
▼ Best fig 31 is 5+ under today's par 75
Jockey Emma Jayne Wilson 30% career ★ 10-for-49 on dirt this meet (20%), #3 of 31 · Trainer William Tharrenos 35% career ★ 9-for-37 on dirt this meet (24%)
Also today · Jockey R5: Noche De Damas 20-1, R7: Vanity 5-2, R8: Willing Guest 4-1, R9: Secretly Delighted 8-5 +2 more · Trainer R2: Dontgobackonurword 6-1, R2: Gran Spirited 5-2, R4: Glint Over Essa 12-1, R5: Noche De Damas 20-1 +1 more
6th last time, 5 lengths back, in a field of 8. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 31 against a 75 par.
EVEN PACE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 13 days ago
RECORD Emma Jayne Wilson from post 4 here: 25 wins, 76 top-3 in 170 rides · 14% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/10 WO 6f D Moc40000 6th/8 -5L 31 1.1-1 b L Prompt2W5/16;empty3/16
5Princess Anna▼▲C. Douglas · M. LoveDouglas · LoveB33@trip 3320-1Fair 30-13%—33@trip 33B▼ Best fig 33 is 5+ under today's par 75▲ Lone speed on early pace
Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 33 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 33
▼ Best fig 33 is 5+ under today's par 75▲ Lone speed on early pace
Jockey Christoff Douglas 14% career 11-for-81 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Michelle M Love 21% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Vegas Road 6-1, R3: Raging Timber 5-2, R7: Takemetothebeach 10-1, R8: Crazy Busy 20-1 +3 more
60D LAYOFFJky 7/37 from post 5
Returns from a 111-day break. Christoff Douglas takes over from Ryan Munger in the saddle.
EVEN PACE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 9 days ago
RECORD Christoff Douglas from post 5 here: 7 wins, 15 top-3 in 37 rides · 11% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
7/12 WO 5½f D Moc40000 6th/6 -13L 33 2.0-1 L 3Wretreat1/4;empty out
6Ginger IllusionJ. Anderson · A. CrookAnderson · Crook?15-1Fair 50-12%—Debut?
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #8 · Tier ?
Jockey Jodeien Anderson 22% career 0-for-9 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Alison Crook 14% career
Also today · Jockey R2: Gran Spirited 5-2
Jky 2/31 from post 6
First career start, by Collusion Illusion out of Ginger Voodoo. Worked 3F in :36.00 on Oct 10, 2nd fastest of 11 that morning.
EVEN PACE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 3 works in 30d and the last 7d back
RECORD Jodeien Anderson from post 6 here: 2 wins, 13 top-3 in 31 rides · 4% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Collusion Illusion out of Ginger Voodoo (Carpe Diem)
Trainer A. Crook: 1st-time starters: 0% wins, 0% in the money (1 starts) · 2-year-olds: 0% wins, 0% in the money (2 starts)
Jockey J. Anderson in sprints: 2 wins from 32 (6%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/24 WO 4f :48.60 breezing 19/74 from gate
10/17 WO 4f :50.00 breezing 27/50 from gate
10/10 WO 3f :36.00 breezing 2/11
8/16 WO 4f :49.60 breezing 11/12
8/8 WO 4f :52.20 breezing 109/109
7Hearts Collide▼A. Adams · A. CameronAdams · CameronA5012-1Fair 20-14%—50A▼ Best fig 50 is 5+ under today's par 75
Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 50
▼ Best fig 50 is 5+ under today's par 75
Jockey Austin Adams 25% career 1-for-14 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer Amanda J Cameron 25% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R9: Golden Sunset 12-1
60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS
133 days since the last start, the longest layoff in here, so it needs the works to say it's ready. A longer trip: 4½ furlongs last out, 5½ furlongs today.
EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.
WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 3 works in 30d, last 7d ago
RECORD Austin Adams from post 7 here: 10 wins, 33 top-3 in 109 rides · 9% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
6/20 WO 4½f D Moc40000 7th/8 -1½L 50 36-1 Btwn;stdy 3/8;3-4w trn
8FoxaliciousLSS. Civaci · S. AttardCivaci · Attard?8-1Fair 10-110%—Debut?LS
Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier ?
LS
Longshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 10% against a line of 9%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Sahin Civaci 40% career ★ 5-for-24 on dirt this meet (21%), #2 of 31 · Trainer Steve Attard 33% career 4-for-29 on dirt this meet (14%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Kimberlina 8-1, R9: Souper Gin's World 4-1 · Trainer R1: Kimberlina 8-1
Unraced; this barn has 20 first-time starters on record and wins 5% of them. There is gate work on its record, the latest on Oct 15.
EVEN PACE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 3 works in 30d, last 7d ago
RECORD Sahin Civaci from post 8 here: 26 wins, 49 top-3 in 117 rides · 23% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Souper Speedy out of Foxy Cleo (Whywhywhy)
Trainer S. Attard: 1st-time starters: 5% wins, 40% in the money (20 starts) · 2-year-olds: 8% wins, 42% in the money (50 starts)
Jockey S. Civaci in sprints: 17 wins from 153 (11%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/24 WO 4f :49.60 breezing 45/74
10/15 WO 4f :49.60 breezing 10/30 from gate
10/3 WO 4f :50.40 breezing 64/73
9/23 WO 3f :39.00 breezing 2/2
8/16 WO 4f :49.20 breezing 58/93 from gate

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	WO	6f D	Moc40000	2nd/8	59	3.2-1	L	Fractious;caught late

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/18	WO	4f	:49.40	breezing	38/83
10/4	WO	4f	:48.60	breezing	31/81
9/27	WO	4f	:50.00	breezing	56/71	from gate
9/20	WO	4f	:49.60	breezing	47/75
9/13	WO	4f	:48.80	breezing	18/57

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/21	WO	5f	1:03.00	breezing	6/7
10/11	WO	3f	:35.60	breezing	3/27	from gate
10/3	WO	4f	:48.00	breezing	8/73
9/26	WO	3f	:37.20	breezing	6/8
9/19	WO	3f	:40.00	breezing	9/10

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	WO	6f D	Moc40000	6th/8 -5L	31	1.1-1	b L	Prompt2W5/16;empty3/16

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/12	WO	5½f D	Moc40000	6th/6 -13L	33	2.0-1	L	3Wretreat1/4;empty out

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/24	WO	4f	:48.60	breezing	19/74	from gate
10/17	WO	4f	:50.00	breezing	27/50	from gate
10/10	WO	3f	:36.00	breezing	2/11
8/16	WO	4f	:49.60	breezing	11/12
8/8	WO	4f	:52.20	breezing	109/109

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
6/20	WO	4½f D	Moc40000	7th/8 -1½L	50	36-1		Btwn;stdy 3/8;3-4w trn

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/24	WO	4f	:49.60	breezing	45/74
10/15	WO	4f	:49.60	breezing	10/30	from gate
10/3	WO	4f	:50.40	breezing	64/73
9/23	WO	3f	:39.00	breezing	2/2
8/16	WO	4f	:49.20	breezing	58/93	from gate

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

WOODBINE · RACE 6

UPCOMING

Maiden Optional Claiming $40,000

Field

8 runners

Purse

$71,700

Post

3:28 PM ET

Pace

Tactical / Honest

Card model top pick

#1 · 31%

Maiden Claiming, for fillies, 2-year-olds.

Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.

● Track record at 5 1/2 Furlongs: 62.28

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #1 Flatter Effect (a presser/stalker, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 59. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #3 Family Love at 5-2. Use #4 I Knew I Could in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #1 FLATTER EFFECT (2-1) — our number agrees.
#1 FLATTER EFFECT — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (27.3% to their 26.5%).
#3 FAMILY LOVE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (22.7% to their 22.7%).
#4 I KNEW I COULD — our #3 number, about right at the windows (18.0% to their 15.9%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

7Hearts Collide871Flatter Effect84

none

No style yet

5Princess Anna934I Knew I Could872Forever Grateful3Family Love6Ginger Illusion8Foxalicious

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Hearts Collide

Flatter Effect

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Princess Anna

Hearts Collide

Flatter Effect

I Knew I Could

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Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

ROLLING DOUBLE / EXACTA / 0.20 TRIFECTA / 0.20 SUPERFECTA

0.20 PICK 3 (RACES 6-7-8)/0.20 JACKPOT POWER PK6 (RACES 6-7-8-9-10-11)

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