R10 Woodbine · Optional Claiming $32,000

6:03 PM ET · 6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · $125,000 · 9 runners6:03 PM · 6½f Dirt · 9 runners

Upcoming $125K · Optional Claiming $32,000

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #3 Fourfiftyfour (6-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 86 from 4 tries. Not in our top three.

1Souper DivaLSJ. Campos · S. ChircopCampos · ChircopB70 84 80▼▼-8@trip 848-1Fair 8-111%▼▼ Big drop -870 84 80@trip 84BLS

Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · Best fig at today's trip 84 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 70 84 80

Longshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 11% against a line of 9%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Jose Luis Campos 26% career 10-for-57 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Steven Chircop 30% career 4-for-25 on dirt this meet (16%)

Also today · Jockey R5: Goldleaf 3-1 · Trainer R1: Twist Of Sugar 2-1, R4: Karat Gold 2-1, R5: Faith Understood 15-1, this race: Rock Hard Rose 3-1 +1 more

★ FASTEST WORK7/11 board here

Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here. Goes 6½ furlongs after running 5 furlongs last time.

PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 7)

WORKS SHARP 4f in :48.20 on Aug 21 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

RECORD 3 wins, 7 on the board from 11 starts here

RECORD Jose Luis Campos from post 1 here: 27 wins, 86 top-3 in 204 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/24	WO	5f T	OC 32k n1x	9th/12 -3¾L	70	7.6-1	L	Stp slw;duel3/8;wilted
9/7	FE	6½f D	fsRndeauBayB150k	3rd/7	84	1.9-1	L	Set pace; outfinished
8/30	WO	7f D	AlgomaB200k	5th/11	80	8.2-1	L	Soon led; no late kick

2Earendel▼J. Alderson · S. AttardAlderson · AttardC70 79 77►↕@trip 6220-1<1%► Steady70 79 77 ↕@trip 62C▼ Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 87

Card model <1% · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 55–79 · Best fig at today's trip 62 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 70 79 77

▼ Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 87

Jockey Jeffrey Ian Alderson 28% career 6-for-31 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Sid C Attard 33% career 4-for-29 on dirt this meet (14%)

Also today · Jockey R5: Faith Understood 15-1, R6: Flatter Effect 2-1, R7: Talent Show 6-1, R9: Lively Up 12-1 +1 more

Jky 13/94 from post 2

A 79 is the high figure lately, short of the 87 par. Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 2 works in 30d, last 21d back

RECORD 3 wins, 3 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD Jeffrey Ian Alderson from post 2 here: 13 wins, 35 top-3 in 94 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	WO	7½f T	OC 32k n1x	6th/7 -6L	70	11-1	L	Chased pace;gaveway
8/29	WO	6½f T	OC 32k n1x	4th/7 -1L	79	2.7-1	L	Bmpd brk;bid 3/16
8/6	WO	7½f T	Clm 25k b	Won/8	77	2.9-1	L	Hound pace;shot clr1/8

3Fourfiftyfour▲★F. Aebly · B. MinshallAebly · MinshallB64 79 79▼▼-17@trip 866-1Fair 7-113%▼▼ Big drop -1764 79 79@trip 86B▲ Rider upgrade (26% vs 21%) cutting back to a sprint★ Best at the trip 86

Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -17 · Best fig at today's trip 86 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 64 79 79

▲ Rider upgrade (26% vs 21%) cutting back to a sprint★ Best at the trip 86

Jockey Fraser Aebly 32% career 17-for-96 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Barbara J Minshall 29% career 2-for-16 on dirt this meet (12%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Twist Of Sugar 2-1, R3: Paddy Holiday 3-1, R4: Karat Gold 2-1, R5: Pharoah's Affair 8-1 +2 more

10/15 board here

Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 86, with 84 next best. Cuts back from 1 1/16 miles to 6½ furlongs.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 8d back

RECORD 2 wins, 10 on the board from 15 starts here

RECORD Fraser Aebly from post 3 here: 38 wins, 106 top-3 in 239 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	WO	1 1/16 T	OC 32k n1x	9th/9 -8¼L	64	12-1	b L	Stalked;drop back 3wd
8/16	WO	6½f D	OC 32k n1x	2nd/7 -6L	79	5.4-1	b L	Stdy'd brk;advanced 4w
7/11	WO	6f D	OC 32k n1x	4th/5 -4L	79	2.5-1	b L	Outs;evenly;caught one

4HawberryC. Douglas · K. ColeDouglas · ColeA80 84 82►@trip 805-2Fair 3-125%► Steady80 84 82@trip 80A1

Card model 25% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 80 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 84 82

Jockey Christoff Douglas 14% career 11-for-81 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Krista Cole 17% career 1-for-18 on dirt this meet (6%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Vegas Road 6-1, R3: Raging Timber 5-2, R6: Princess Anna 20-1, R7: Takemetothebeach 10-1 +3 more

Last out was 4th, 6 lengths behind the winner, in a 9-horse optional claiming race at WO. Was 8th of 9 at the first call last time.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 7d ago

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 7 starts here

RECORD Christoff Douglas from post 4 here: 7 wins, 23 top-3 in 58 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	WO	6½f D	OC 50k n2l	4th/9 -6L	80	5.7-1	b L	Gaining late inside
8/30	WO	7f D	AlgomaB200k	2nd/11 -3L	84	12-1	b L	Inside advance;up 2nd
8/8	WO	6f D	OC 50k n2l	4th/7 -5½L	82	31-1	b L	Taken up brk;gain insd

5Verdejo▼P. Moran · M. MattineMoran · MattineA80 81 74▲+4@trip 814-1Fair 6-115%▲ Up +480 81 74@trip 81A▼ Best fig 82 is 5+ under today's par 873

Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +4 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 81 74

▼ Best fig 82 is 5+ under today's par 87

Jockey Pietro Moran 32% career 16-for-87 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Michael Mattine 26% career 3-for-20 on dirt this meet (15%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Edey 8-5, R2: Dontgobackonurword 6-1, R4: Glint Over Essa 12-1, R5: Aretha 4-1 +4 more

9/16 board here

Raises its level, $23,500 claiming last time and allowance optional claiming now. Switches from turf to dirt.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Rally6W1/8; not enough), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 51 days ago

RECORD 2 wins, 9 on the board from 16 starts here

RECORD Pietro Moran from post 5 here: 32 wins, 108 top-3 in 214 rides · 18% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/15	WO	6½f T	Clm 25k	2nd/7 -1½L	80	4.2-1	b L	Rally6W1/8;not enough
9/25	WO	6½f D	Clm 25k	Won/7	81	3.3-1	b L	Control pace;had more
8/22	WO	5½f D	OC 32k n1x	6th/8 -8¾L	74	11-1	b L	Force out brk;near ins

6Rarified▼▲J. Samuel · R. JonesSamuel · JonesC77 76 77►≡@trip 7210-1Fair 12-17%► Steady77 76 77 ≡@trip 72C▼ Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 87▲ Lone speed on early pace

Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 72–77 · Best fig at today's trip 72 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 76 77

▼ Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 87▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey Jalon L Samuel 24% career 1-for-15 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer Ryan A Jones 25% career 1-for-13 on dirt this meet (8%)

Also today · Trainer R11: Scat Humor 20-1

CLASS UP★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST9/16 board here

Winner of a 7-horse optional claiming race at WO last time. Was running in optional claiming; today's allowance optional claiming is an easier level on paper.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP 3f in :36.60 on Aug 7 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30d

RECORD 3 wins, 9 on the board from 16 starts here

RECORD Jalon L Samuel from post 6 here: 1 win, 13 top-3 in 45 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	WO	6f D	OC 40k	Won/7 by 1½	77	3.8-1	L	Loom4Wstr;edged clr
9/17	WO	6½f T	Clm 25k b	2nd/7	76	2.5-1	b L	Pace in clear;no match
9/4	WO	6f T	OC 40k	2nd/4 -½L	77	8.4-1	b L	Poor st;led;nomatch1/8

7Rock Hard Rose▼E. Wilson · S. ChircopWilson · ChircopB74 80 80▼-7≡@trip 683-1Fair 9-219%▼ Down -774 80 80 ≡@trip 68B▼ Best fig 82 is 5+ under today's par 872

Card model 19% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -7 · ≡ Steady figures 74–82 · Best fig at today's trip 68 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 80 80

▼ Best fig 82 is 5+ under today's par 87

Jockey Emma Jayne Wilson 30% career ★ 10-for-49 on dirt this meet (20%), #3 of 31 · Trainer Steven Chircop 30% career 4-for-25 on dirt this meet (16%)

Also today · Jockey R5: Noche De Damas 20-1, R6: I Knew I Could 4-1, R7: Vanity 5-2, R8: Willing Guest 4-1 +2 more · Trainer R1: Twist Of Sugar 2-1, R4: Karat Gold 2-1, R5: Faith Understood 15-1, this race: Souper Diva 8-1 +1 more

5/5 board here

Jockey switch: Fraser Aebly last out, Emma Jayne Wilson today. Moves up from allowance to allowance optional claiming.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 25 days ago

RECORD On the board in all 5 starts here (3 wins)

RECORD Emma Jayne Wilson from post 7 here: 20 wins, 48 top-3 in 139 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	PID	6f D	Alw n1x	4th/5 -4½L	74	1.9-1	b L	Pressed; weakened
8/22	WO	5½f D	OC 32k n1x	2nd/8 -3½L	80	4.2-1	b L	Inside; held 2nd
8/6	WO	6f D	Clm 25k	Won/9	80	4.2-1	b L	Well rated; held on

8Society's Kat▼E. Flores · A. ShermanFlores · ShermanA80 75 81►≡@trip 8012-1Fair 20-14%► Steady80 75 81 ≡@trip 80A▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 75–83 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 75 81

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey Eswan Flores 32% career 5-for-36 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Allistair Sherman 36% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Astonesthrowaway 12-1, R11: Definite Diva 5-2

CLASS DROPWON LAST8/12 board here

Allistair Sherman takes over the training from Anthony Adamo. Comes in off a victory in a 7-horse $7,000 claiming race at WO.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 37d ago

RECORD 1 win, 8 on the board from 12 starts here

RECORD Eswan Flores from post 8 here: 12 wins, 28 top-3 in 105 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/8	WO	6½f D	Clm 7k bc	Won/7	80	0.6-1	L	Won under a hand ride
8/27	WO	6½f D	Clm 10k c	3rd/8 -5½L	75	1.6-1	L	Poor st;4Wturn;rallied
7/11	WO	6f D	OC 32k n1x	3rd/5 -3L	81	8.2-1	L	Burst btwn late;up 3rd

9Hard to Capture▼S. Chernetz · D. GittensChernetz · GittensC81 72 75▲+6≡@trip 7815-1Fair 15-16%▲ Up +6 · career best81 72 75 ≡@trip 78C▼ Best fig 81 is 5+ under today's par 87
Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +6 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 72–81 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 72 75
▼ Best fig 81 is 5+ under today's par 87
Jockey Skye Chernetz 24% career 2-for-13 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Devon Gittens 31% career ★ 8-for-37 on dirt this meet (22%)
WON LAST12/16 board here
Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt. Won last out in a 7-horse $25,000 claiming race at WO.
EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 49 days ago
RECORD 4 wins, 12 on the board from 16 starts here
RECORD Skye Chernetz from post 9 here: 4 wins, 10 top-3 in 32 rides · 9% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/15 WO 6½f T Clm 25k Won/7 81 22-1 L Pounce4P3/16;held on
9/25 WO 6½f D Clm 25k 4th/7 -3L 72 4.5-1 L Rally3W5/16;faded1/8
9/19 WO 6f T OC 32k n1x 8th/9 -9½L 75 49-1 L Swung 8w; no threat

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/15	WO	6½f T	Clm 25k	Won/7	81	22-1	L	Pounce4P3/16;held on
9/25	WO	6½f D	Clm 25k	4th/7 -3L	72	4.5-1	L	Rally3W5/16;faded1/8
9/19	WO	6f T	OC 32k n1x	8th/9 -9½L	75	49-1	L	Swung 8w; no threat

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

WOODBINE · RACE 10

UPCOMING

Optional Claiming $32,000

Field

9 runners

Purse

$125,000

Post

6:03 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#4 · 25%

Claiming $32,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, that have not won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 6 1/2 Furlongs: 74.44

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #4 Hawberry (a presser/stalker, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 80 · 84 · 82. Backup is #7 Rock Hard Rose at 3-1. Use #5 Verdejo in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #4 HAWBERRY (5-2) — our number agrees.
#4 HAWBERRY — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (23.5% to their 22.5%).
#7 ROCK HARD ROSE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (20.8% to their 19.7%).
#5 VERDEJO — our #3 number, about right at the windows (16.4% to their 15.8%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #1 Souper Diva; pressure from #6 Rarified, #2 Earendel; the shape helps #2 Earendel, #3 Fourfiftyfour, #4 Hawberry; and works against #1 Souper Diva.

Lead

1Souper Diva100

Press

6Rarified972Earendel917Rock Hard Rose89

Stalk

3Fourfiftyfour918Society's Kat854Hawberry79

9Hard To Capture945Verdejo89

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Souper Diva

100

Rarified

Earendel

Fourfiftyfour

Rock Hard Rose

Society's Kat

Hawberry

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Verdejo

Hard To Capture

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