R2 Woodbine · Claiming $5,000

1:00 PM ET · 7 Furlongs Dirt · $27,000 · 8 runners1:00 PM · 7f Dirt · 8 runners

Official $27K · Claiming $5,000

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #1 Sonofaghost (8-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 81 from 2 tries. Not in our top three.

  1. 1Sonofaghost★Ran 3rdL. Contreras · H. LadauceurContreras · LadauceurA75 60 72▲+5@trip 818-1Fair 10-19%▲ Up +575 60 72@trip 81A★ Best at the trip 81

    Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +5 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 60 72

    ★ Best at the trip 81
    Jockey Luis Contreras 28% career 1-for-16 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Harold Ladauceur
    Also today · Jockey R3: Mystic Path 8-1
    Jky 7/44 from post 1

    Class relief: $15,000 claiming last time, $5,000 claiming today. Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 81, with 79 next best.

    PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
    WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Aug 8 (5F in :59.00), 1 work in 30d
    RECORD Luis Contreras from post 1 here: 7 wins, 16 top-3 in 44 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/16WO6½f DClm 15k b6th/97515-1LDuel;cling1/8;yielded
    9/7FE6½f DsLakeErie150k8th/10 -10L608.4-1LRoused; no response
    7/24CML1 1/16 DCountLtm50k6th/8 -6¼L7229-1LBrokeinward;lackedclos
  2. 2Big Baby HenryRan 2ndK. Nicholls · M. GlazierNicholls · GlazierB74 75 71►≡@trip 777-2Fair 6-115%► Steady74 75 71 ≡@trip 77B

    Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 71–77 · Best fig at today's trip 77 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 75 71

    Jockey Keveh Nicholls 30% career 6-for-45 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Michael Glazier 20% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R4: Maria Sofia 5-2, R5: Tap My Desire 12-1

    Was running in $9,500 claiming; today's $5,000 claiming is an easier level on paper. Finished 4th in a 7-horse $9,500 claiming race at WO, beaten 2 lengths.

    EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 63d back)
    RECORD 2 wins, 7 on the board from 16 starts here
    RECORD Keveh Nicholls from post 2 here: 19 wins, 62 top-3 in 122 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/2WO6½f DClm 10k4th/7 -2L7414-1LBrk out;willing;minors
    9/6WO6f DClm 7k3rd/10 -3½L759.1-1LAntsy;6Wstr late rally
    8/15WO6½f DClm 7k6th/10 -6¼L714.3-1LBrk in;brief run3W1/4
  3. 3DontgobackonurwordRan 1stP. Moran · W. TharrenosMoran · TharrenosA75 72 66▲+4@trip 796-1Fair 5-117%▲ Up +475 72 66@trip 79A3

    Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +4 · Best fig at today's trip 79 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 72 66

    Jockey Pietro Moran 32% career 16-for-87 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer William Tharrenos 35% career ★ 9-for-37 on dirt this meet (24%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Edey 8-5, R4: Glint Over Essa 12-1, R5: Aretha 4-1, R6: Family Love 5-2 +4 more · Trainer this race: Gran Spirited 5-2, R4: Glint Over Essa 12-1, R5: Noche De Damas 20-1, R6: I Knew I Could 4-1 +1 more

    Has moved up each time out, 66 to 72 to 75. Last out was 6th, 7¾ lengths behind the winner, in an 8-horse $7,000 claiming race at WO.

    EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 41 days ago
    RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 10 starts here
    RECORD Pietro Moran from post 3 here: 44 wins, 116 top-3 in 201 rides · 18% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/9WO6½f DClm 7k b6th/8 -7¾L756.8-1b LCame out 8w; mildly
    9/25WO6f DClm 7k b4th/8 -11L722.7-1b LBest stride late 6wd
    8/28WO1 1/16 TClm 15k b6th/6 -2¾L662.5-1b LTracked;gaveway3P3/16
  4. 4Gran SpiritedRan 5thJ. Anderson · W. TharrenosAnderson · TharrenosA69 77 75▼-5≡@trip 775-2Fair 7-222%▼ Down -569 77 75 ≡@trip 77A1

    Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -5 · ≡ Steady figures 69–77 · Best fig at today's trip 77 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 69 77 75

    Jockey Jodeien Anderson 22% career 0-for-9 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer William Tharrenos 35% career ★ 9-for-37 on dirt this meet (24%)
    Also today · Jockey R6: Ginger Illusion 15-1 · Trainer this race: Dontgobackonurword 6-1, R4: Glint Over Essa 12-1, R5: Noche De Damas 20-1, R6: I Knew I Could 4-1 +1 more
    5/9 board here

    Changes barns, from Tedston Holder to William Tharrenos. Jodeien Anderson takes over from Jose Luis Campos in the saddle.

    PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
    WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 6d ago
    RECORD 0 wins, 5 on the board from 9 starts here
    RECORD Jodeien Anderson from post 4 here: 2 wins, 10 top-3 in 40 rides · 4% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/9WO6½f DClm 7k b8th/8 -7¾L699.2-1LRidden7/16;no response
    9/18WO7f DClm 7k3rd/8 by hd773.7-1LDuel ins1/8;not enough
    9/6WO6f DClm 7k2nd/10 -4¾L758.2-1LLacked room3/16-16th
  5. 5Arami's Speighster▼Ran 6thD. Gaskin · D. WillsGaskin · WillsB75 72 72►≡@trip 728-1Fair 12-18%► Steady75 72 72 ≡@trip 72B▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 81

    Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 72–75 · Best fig at today's trip 72 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 72 72

    ▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 81
    Jockey Da-Sean Zavier Gaskin 28% career 0-for-22 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Daniel Wills 20% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R3: Erie Shores 6-1, R9: Fury's Flight 6-1
    ★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

    Comes in off a victory in a 6-horse $8,000 claiming race at FE. Stretches out from 6 furlongs to 7 furlongs.

    PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
    SHARP LAST OUT Chart comment from the last start: 3-p str; much the best.
    WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Aug 25 (3F in :36.40), 0 works in 30d
    RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts here
    RECORD Da-Sean Zavier Gaskin from post 5 here: 6 wins, 26 top-3 in 81 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/19FE6f DClm 8k n2lWon/6751.0-1b L3-p str; much the best
    9/29FE6f DClm 6k n2l2nd/6720.5-1b LVied str; good effort
    9/15FE6½f DClm 8k n2l2nd/8 -2½L722.4-1b L5p; clearly 2nd best
  6. 6Your ValentinoRan 4thR. Hernandez · S. PionHernandez · PionB73 77 72►≡@trip 723-1Fair 4-120%► Steady73 77 72 ≡@trip 72B2

    Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 69–77 · Best fig at today's trip 72 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 77 72

    Jockey Rafael Manuel Hernandez 38% career 10-for-56 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Sylvain Pion 28% career 0-for-8 on dirt this meet (0%)
    Also today · Jockey R4: Whitemudwest 7-2, R5: Majaz 8-5, R7: Madame Obey 12-1, R8: Glorious Gem 9-5 +2 more

    Goes 7 furlongs after running 5½ furlongs last time. Quick turnaround, just 8 days since the last start.

    PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 51 days ago
    RECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 13 starts here
    RECORD Rafael Manuel Hernandez from post 6 here: 45 wins, 116 top-3 in 259 rides · 21% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/23WO5½f DClm 7k b5th/7 -2½L732.5-1b LStalk behind; no rally
    10/9WO6½f DClm 7k b3rd/8 -2L774.8-1b LStalk 3-4w;no late bid
    9/18WO7f DClm 7k b4th/7 -3½L726.2-1b LChase2Wturn;faded1/8
  7. 7Bold ReloadRan 8thC. Jordan · P. LepianeJordan · LepianeC65 62 74►@trip 8020-1Fair 50-12%► Steady65 62 74@trip 80C

    Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 80 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 65 62 74

    Jockey Corey Jordan 26% career 0-for-9 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Paul Lepiane 14% career
    CLASS DROP

    New trainer: Abraham R Katryan had it last time, Paul Lepiane now. Gets a new rider, Corey Jordan replacing Leo Salles.

    PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 3)
    WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 29d ago
    RECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 14 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/20FE6f DClm 5k b3rd/9 -3½L6518-1b L3-path str; held show
    10/10WO7f DClm 7k6th/7 -6¼L6214-1LPushed out7W3/16
    9/6WO6f DClm 7k5th/10 -3L7412-1LOutkicked btwn 70yds
  8. 8Alfred BellowsLSRan 7thD. Nelson · D. YuNelson · YuC67 75 62▼-4@trip 4810-1Fair 12-18%▼ Down -467 75 62@trip 48CLS

    Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -4 · Best fig at today's trip 48 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 75 62

    LS

    Longshot read: 10-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 8% against a line of 7%. A read, not a bet.

    Jockey Dane Nelson 31% career 3-for-29 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Danny Yu 25% career 2-for-8 on dirt this meet (25%)
    Also today · Jockey R3: Stella Point 20-1, R11: Scat Humor 20-1
    CLASS UP5/10 board here

    A big drop, $15,000 claiming to $5,000 claiming, and worth asking why. Dropped in well back early last out, 8th of 9 at the first call.

    EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 132d ago
    RECORD 2 wins, 5 on the board from 10 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/16WO6½f DClm 15k b7th/9 -8L6722-1b LBrsh st;passed tired
    9/25WO6f DClm 7k b3rd/8 -4½L7511-1b LSqz'd st; gaining late
    8/28WO6½f DClm 7k b7th/8 -8L623.7-1b LRegressed 4W on turn

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: honest. Speed from #7, #1, #5.

How to read these marks
1 2 3
Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair
The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?
The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72
Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕
≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★
Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips
Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #4 Gran Spirited, finished 5th.

1st3DontgobackonurwordWin$7.40Place$3.50Show$2.70Our #3
2nd2Big Baby HenryWin—Place$3.30Show$2.60Our #4
3rd1SonofaghostWin—Place—Show$3.90Our #5
4th6Your ValentinoOur #2
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
¼½¾FINISHSTART7 FURLONGS · DIRT · main1-turn · chute start

WOODBINE · RACE 2

OFFICIAL

Claiming $5,000

Field
8 runners
Purse
$27,000
Post
1:00 PM ET
Pace
Pressed Pace
Card model top pick
#4 · 22%

Claiming $5,000, for 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 7 Furlongs: 80.07

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #4 Gran Spirited (a presser/stalker, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 69 · 77 · 75. It needs to turn the form around after a flat last start. Backup is #6 Your Valentino at 3-1. Use #3 Dontgobackonurword in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · OUR #3 WON

Dontgobackonurword (our #3) won · top pick Gran Spirited ran 5th

What worked

  • ✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #3)

What didn't

  • ✗ Top pick off the board (5th)
  • ✗ Our top 3 finished 5th, 4th, 1st

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1#4 GRAN SPIRITED5th
#2#6 YOUR VALENTINO4th
#3#3 DONTGOBACKONURWORD1st
#4#2 BIG BABY HENRY2nd
#5#1 SONOFAGHOST3rd

Actual finish

1st#3 Dontgobackonurwordour #3
2nd#2 Big Baby Henryour #4
3rd#1 Sonofaghostour #5
4th#6 Your Valentinoour #2
5th#4 Gran Spiritedour #1
At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

  • Market favourite #4 GRAN SPIRITED (5-2) — our number agrees.
  • #4 GRAN SPIRITED — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (22.1% to their 22.6%).
  • #6 YOUR VALENTINO — our #2 number, about right at the windows (20.2% to their 19.8%).
  • #2 BIG BABY HENRY — our #4 number, about right at the windows (17.2% to their 17.6%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

  • #3 DONTGOBACKONURWORD — we make it 13.8%, the morning line works out to 11.3%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #7 Bold Reload; pressure from #1 Sonofaghost, #5 Arami's Speighster; the shape helps #1 Sonofaghost, #4 Gran Spirited, #5 Arami's Speighster; and works against #7 Bold Reload.

Lead
7Bold Reload91
Press
1Sonofaghost915Arami's Speighster89
Stalk
6Your Valentino834Gran Spirited77
Close
2Big Baby Henry818Alfred Bellows743Dontgobackonurword72

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

1
Sonofaghost
91
7
Bold Reload
91
5
Arami's Speighster
89
6
Your Valentino
83
4
Gran Spirited
77

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

8
Alfred Bellows
17
2
Big Baby Henry
13
3
Dontgobackonurword
13
Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

ROLLING DOUBLE / EXACTA / 0.20 TRIFECTA / 0.20 SUPERFECTA

0.20 PICK 3 (RACES 2-3-4) / 0.20 $100;000 PICK 5 (RACES 2-3-4-5-6)

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

BET OPTIONS

WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta

Wagers offered on this race — analysis only, no stake sizing.

For information only — not financial or wagering advice. Must be 21+ to wager where required by law. If gambling is affecting you or someone you know, help is available.