R8 Woodbine · Maiden Special Weight

4:48 PM ET · 1 Mile 70 Yards Dirt · $125,500 · 7 runners4:48 PM · 8.3f Dirt · 7 runners

Upcoming $126K · Maiden Special Weight

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Willing GuestE. Wilson · M. CasseWilson · CasseB67 71 73▼-4≡4-1Fair 5-116%▼ Down -467 71 73 ≡B3

Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -4 · ≡ Steady figures 67–73 · Last 3 figs 67 71 73

Jockey Emma Jayne Wilson 30% career ★ 10-for-49 on dirt this meet (20%), #3 of 31 · Trainer Mark Casse 36% career ★ 8-for-39 on dirt this meet (21%)

Also today · Jockey R5: Noche De Damas 20-1, R6: I Knew I Could 4-1, R7: Vanity 5-2, R9: Secretly Delighted 8-5 +2 more · Trainer R5: Majaz 8-5, R7: War Signal 8-1, R7: Vanity 5-2, this race: Ez Miss Sassy 5-2 +2 more

60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Runs for $125,500 today after a $300,000 race last time. Goes 1 1/16 miles after running 6½ furlongs last time.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Brk out; 7W3/16mild run), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS Routine prep: 3 works in 30d, last 9d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 4 starts here

RECORD Emma Jayne Wilson from post 1 here: 22 wins, 58 top-3 in 154 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/30	WO	6½f D	MuskokaB300k	6th/12 -9L	67	8.2-1	b L	Brk out;7W3/16mild run
8/1	WO	5½f D	MSW	7th/10 -4¾L	71	5.4-1	L	Bmpd early;inside turn
6/27	WO	5½f D	MSW	4th/6 -5L	73	3.0-1	L	5Wstr;evened out1/8th

2Glorious Gem▲R. Hernandez · D. DesruisseauxHernandez · DesruisseauxA79 869-5Fair 7-544%—79 86A▲ Last fig 79 at/above par 771
Card model 44% · Fair odds 7-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 79 86
▲ Last fig 79 at/above par 77
Jockey Rafael Manuel Hernandez 38% career 10-for-56 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Dale A Desruisseaux 31% career 0-for-12 on dirt this meet (0%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R2: Your Valentino 3-1, R4: Whitemudwest 7-2, R5: Majaz 8-5, R7: Madame Obey 12-1 +2 more · Trainer R6: Family Love 5-2
Switches from turf to dirt. Tops the field on speed figures, an 86 against 82 for the next best.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.
TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: 6Wstr btwn; mildly. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 7 days ago
RECORD Rafael Manuel Hernandez from post 2 here: 75 wins, 153 top-3 in 277 rides · 21% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/4 WO 1 1/16 T rCupSaucerB300k 4th/10 -4L 79 8.4-1 L 6Wstr btwn;mildly
9/13 WO 7f T MSW 2nd/7 -4L 86 8.9-1 L Circled4W3/8-7W1/4
3Crazy Busy▼C. Douglas · B. PleterskiDouglas · PleterskiC67 69@trip 6720-1Fair 50-12%—67 69@trip 67C▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 77
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Best fig at today's trip 67 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 69
▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 77
Jockey Christoff Douglas 14% career 11-for-81 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Bosidar D Pleterski 22% career
Also today · Jockey R1: Vegas Road 6-1, R3: Raging Timber 5-2, R6: Princess Anna 20-1, R7: Takemetothebeach 10-1 +3 more
★ FASTEST WORKJky 8/45 from post 3
New trainer: Kevin Attard had it last time, Bosidar D Pleterski now. Purse goes from $53,600 to $125,500, a step up.
EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class. (early-speed points: 6)
WORKS SHARP 4f in :49.40 on Sep 16 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30d
RECORD Christoff Douglas from post 3 here: 8 wins, 20 top-3 in 45 rides · 11% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/27 WO 1 1/16 D Moc25000c 2nd/6 67 1.1-1 L Led;soft pace;2ndbest
8/15 WO 6½f T MSW 11th/11 -12L 69 7.0-1 Poised rail turn;empty
4Ghost Striker▼LSP. Moran · K. AttardMoran · AttardB6410-1Fair 10-19%—64B▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 77LS
Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 64
▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 77LS
Longshot read: 10-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 9% against a line of 7%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Pietro Moran 32% career 16-for-87 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Kevin Attard 33% career 6-for-34 on dirt this meet (18%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Edey 8-5, R2: Dontgobackonurword 6-1, R4: Glint Over Essa 12-1, R5: Aretha 4-1 +4 more · Trainer R3: Paddy Holiday 3-1, R5: Aretha 4-1, this race: Annastaij 8-1
LASIX 1ST
Best recent figure is 64, well under the 77 par for this level. Beaten 6¼ lengths for 7th in a 9-horse maiden special weight race at WO.
EVEN PACE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 8 days ago
RECORD Pietro Moran from post 4 here: 40 wins, 99 top-3 in 220 rides · 18% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/3 WO 7f D MSW 7th/9 -6¼L 64 6.1-1 Narrowed gap4W1/4
5Ez Miss Sassy▲R. Maragh · M. CasseMaragh · CasseA82 69 22▲▲+28↕@trip 695-2Fair 9-218%▲▲ Big jump +28 · career best82 69 22 ↕@trip 69A▲ Last fig 82 at/above par 772
Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +28 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 22–82 · Best fig at today's trip 69 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 69 22
▲ Last fig 82 at/above par 77
Jockey Romero Ramsay Maragh 27% career 2-for-37 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Mark Casse 36% career ★ 8-for-39 on dirt this meet (21%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Let's Go Souper 7-2 · Trainer R5: Majaz 8-5, R7: War Signal 8-1, R7: Vanity 5-2, this race: Willing Guest 4-1 +2 more
LASIX 1ST3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK
Figures are climbing: 22, 69, 82 over its last three. Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt.
EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 7; 3 works in 30d
RECORD Romero Ramsay Maragh from post 5 here: 7 wins, 21 top-3 in 50 rides · 10% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/12 WO 1m T Natalma G1 9th/11 -15L 82 71-1 Bmpd brk;pass foes
8/22 WO 1 1/16 D MSW 2nd/9 69 9.9-1 Moved 4w;led;outkicked
7/26 ELP 1m D MSW 9th/9 -15L 22 6.7-1 2p;btw;faded ins;eased
6AnnastaijF. Aebly · K. AttardAebly · AttardB738-1<1%—73B
Card model <1% · Our #7 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 73
Jockey Fraser Aebly 32% career 17-for-96 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Kevin Attard 33% career 6-for-34 on dirt this meet (18%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Twist Of Sugar 2-1, R3: Paddy Holiday 3-1, R4: Karat Gold 2-1, R5: Pharoah's Affair 8-1 +2 more · Trainer R3: Paddy Holiday 3-1, R5: Aretha 4-1, this race: Ghost Striker 10-1
3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS
Stretches out from 6½ furlongs to 1 1/16 miles. Fraser Aebly takes over from Emma Jayne Wilson in the saddle.
EVEN PACE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Sluggish st; had little. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Sep 26; 3 works in 30d
RECORD Fraser Aebly from post 6 here: 31 wins, 84 top-3 in 220 rides · 14% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/5 WO 6½f D MSW 6th/8 -6½L 73 3.5-1 L Sluggish st;had little
7Classic Lines▲R. Munger · G. CoxMunger · CoxA77 72 75▲+5≡6-1Fair 7-113%▲ Up +5 · career best77 72 75 ≡A▲ Last fig 77 at/above par 77
Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +5 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 69–77 · Last 3 figs 77 72 75
▲ Last fig 77 at/above par 77
Jockey Ryan Munger 30% career 7-for-40 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Gail Cox 42% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R4: Illuminara 8-1, R7: Katie's Grace 2-1, R9: Bad Penny 15-1 · Trainer R1: Let's Go Souper 7-2
2/4 board here
Finished 3rd in a 9-horse maiden special weight race at WO, beaten 2½ lengths. A longer trip: 7 furlongs last out, 1 1/16 miles today.
EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 7 days ago
RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 4 starts here
RECORD Ryan Munger from post 7 here: 12 wins, 58 top-3 in 158 rides · 14% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/3 WO 7f D MSW 3rd/9 -2½L 77 19-1 b L Late rally;clear 3rd
9/13 WO 7f T MSW 6th/7 -6½L 72 14-1 b L Brk in;5Wstr no finish
8/8 WO 6f D MSW 2nd/7 -6½L 75 9.1-1 b L Circle3Wturn;2ndbest

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	WO	1 1/16 T	rCupSaucerB300k	4th/10 -4L	79	8.4-1	L	6Wstr btwn;mildly
9/13	WO	7f T	MSW	2nd/7 -4L	86	8.9-1	L	Circled4W3/8-7W1/4

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	WO	1 1/16 D	Moc25000c	2nd/6	67	1.1-1	L	Led;soft pace;2ndbest
8/15	WO	6½f T	MSW	11th/11 -12L	69	7.0-1		Poised rail turn;empty

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	WO	7f D	MSW	7th/9 -6¼L	64	6.1-1		Narrowed gap4W1/4

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
9/12	WO	1m T	Natalma G1	9th/11 -15L	82	71-1	Bmpd brk;pass foes
8/22	WO	1 1/16 D	MSW	2nd/9	69	9.9-1	Moved 4w;led;outkicked
7/26	ELP	1m D	MSW	9th/9 -15L	22	6.7-1	2p;btw;faded ins;eased

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/5	WO	6½f D	MSW	6th/8 -6½L	73	3.5-1	L	Sluggish st;had little

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	WO	7f D	MSW	3rd/9 -2½L	77	19-1	b L	Late rally;clear 3rd
9/13	WO	7f T	MSW	6th/7 -6½L	72	14-1	b L	Brk in;5Wstr no finish
8/8	WO	6f D	MSW	2nd/7 -6½L	75	9.1-1	b L	Circle3Wturn;2ndbest

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: #3 is the only true speed and could control it.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

WOODBINE · RACE 8

UPCOMING

Maiden Special Weight

Field

7 runners

Purse

$125,500

Post

4:48 PM ET

Pace

Tactical / Honest

Card model top pick

#2 · 44%

Maiden Special Weight, for fillies, 2-year-olds.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

● Track record at 1 Mile 70 Yards: 100.13

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #2 Glorious Gem (a closer, M/L 9-5). Recent figures: 79 · 86. Backup is #5 Ez Miss Sassy at 5-2. Use #1 Willing Guest in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #2 GLORIOUS GEM (9-5) — our number agrees.
#2 GLORIOUS GEM — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (33.2% to their 28.9%).
#5 EZ MISS SASSY — our #2 number, about right at the windows (24.4% to their 23.1%).
#1 WILLING GUEST — our #3 number, about right at the windows (18.0% to their 16.2%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Likely leader: #3 Crazy Busy.

Lead

3Crazy Busy75

Press

none

Stalk

7Classic Lines81

1Willing Guest832Glorious Gem825Ez Miss Sassy75

No style yet

6Annastaij814Ghost Striker74

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Classic Lines

Crazy Busy

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Glorious Gem

Ez Miss Sassy

Willing Guest

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Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

ROLLING DOUBLE / EXACTA / 0.20 TRIFECTA / 0.20 SUPERFECTA

0.20 PICK 3 (RACES 8-9-10) / 0.20 PICK 4 (RACES 8-9-10-11)/ $1 SWINGER

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