R9 Woodbine · Maiden Special Weight

5:27 PM ET · 7 1/2 Furlongs Turf · $125,500 · 10 runners5:27 PM · 7½f Turf · 10 runners

Upcoming $126K · Maiden Special Weight

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Double Or Nothing▼C. Douglas · M. DepauloDouglas · DepauloC69 6920-1Fair 50-12%—69 69C▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 81
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 69 69
▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 81
Jockey Christoff Douglas 14% career 7-for-47 on turf this meet (15%) · Trainer Michael P Depaulo
Also today · Jockey R1: Vegas Road 6-1, R3: Raging Timber 5-2, R6: Princess Anna 20-1, R7: Takemetothebeach 10-1 +3 more
★ FASTEST WORKJky 6/37 from post 1
Runs for $125,500 after a $71,700 race last out. Stretches out from 6 furlongs to 7½ furlongs.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Slw st; 6Wstr; mildly. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 28d ago
RECORD Christoff Douglas from post 1 here: 6 wins, 18 top-3 in 37 rides · 11% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/9 WO 6f T Moc40000 4th/6 -4½L 69 11-1 L Slw st;6Wstr;mildly
9/19 WO 6½f T MSW 7th/10 -7¾L 69 54-1 b L Slw st;passed tired
2Souper Gin's World▼▲S. Civaci · M. CasseCivaci · CasseB73 73 71►4-1Fair 9-219%► Steady73 73 71B▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 81▲ Lone speed on early pace2
Card model 19% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 73 73 71
▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 81▲ Lone speed on early pace
Jockey Sahin Civaci 40% career 2-for-24 on turf this meet (8%) · Trainer Mark Casse 36% career ★ 13-for-61 on turf this meet (21%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Kimberlina 8-1, R6: Foxalicious 8-1 · Trainer R5: Majaz 8-5, R7: War Signal 8-1, R7: Vanity 5-2, R8: Willing Guest 4-1 +2 more
Last out was 3rd, 1 length behind the winner, in a 9-horse maiden special weight race at WO. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 73 against a 81 par.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 3)
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 30d ago
RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts here
RECORD Sahin Civaci from post 2 here: 48 wins, 118 top-3 in 205 rides · 23% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/10 WO 7f T MSW 3rd/9 -1L 73 5.0-1 L Pressured; no extra
7/26 WO 1m T MSW 4th/9 73 2.6-1 L Set pace;faded late
6/20 WO 5f T MSW 4th/7 -5L 71 1.3-1 L Best stride final 16th
3Fury's FlightD. Gaskin · T. GattellaroGaskin · GattellaroA77 806-1Fair 7-112%—77 80A
Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 77 80
Jockey Da-Sean Zavier Gaskin 28% career 1-for-10 on turf this meet (10%) · Trainer Tony Michael Gattellaro 28% career 1-for-5 on turf this meet
Also today · Jockey R2: Arami's Speighster 8-1, R3: Erie Shores 6-1 · Trainer R3: Erie Shores 6-1
★ FASTEST WORK
Owns the highest recent figure here at 80. Goes 7½ furlongs after running 6½ furlongs last time.
EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.
TROUBLED TRIP 3Wturn; 7Wstr; up for3rd last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Aug 9; 1 work in 30d
RECORD Da-Sean Zavier Gaskin from post 3 here: 4 wins, 21 top-3 in 65 rides · 9% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/19 WO 6½f T MSW 3rd/10 -4½L 77 6.6-1 L 3Wturn;7Wstr;up for3rd
8/29 WO 7f D MSW 3rd/7 -8L 80 5.2-1 L Veer out;eager1/2-7/16
4Lively Up▼J. Alderson · W. TharrenosAlderson · TharrenosC72 6012-1Fair 15-16%—72 60C▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 81
Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 72 60
▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 81
Jockey Jeffrey Ian Alderson 28% career ★ 5-for-20 on turf this meet (25%), #1 of 26 · Trainer William Tharrenos 35% career 3-for-13 on turf this meet (23%)
Also today · Jockey R5: Faith Understood 15-1, R6: Flatter Effect 2-1, R7: Talent Show 6-1, R10: Earendel 20-1 +1 more · Trainer R2: Dontgobackonurword 6-1, R2: Gran Spirited 5-2, R4: Glint Over Essa 12-1, R5: Noche De Damas 20-1 +1 more
★ FASTEST WORK
Purse goes from $71,700 to $125,500, a step up. Beaten 2½ lengths for 3rd in a 6-horse race at WO.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 4 (4F in :48.20), 2 works in 30d
RECORD Jeffrey Ian Alderson from post 4 here: 7 wins, 15 top-3 in 62 rides · 9% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/9 WO 6f T Moc40000 3rd/6 -2½L 72 4.0-1 L Tracked rail;clear3rd
6/7 WO 6f D MSW 8th/8 -11L 60 3.5-1 L 3w;6w3/16;checked 1/8

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	WO	6f T	Moc40000	4th/6 -4½L	69	11-1	L	Slw st;6Wstr;mildly
9/19	WO	6½f T	MSW	7th/10 -7¾L	69	54-1	b L	Slw st;passed tired

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	WO	7f T	MSW	3rd/9 -1L	73	5.0-1	L	Pressured; no extra
7/26	WO	1m T	MSW	4th/9	73	2.6-1	L	Set pace;faded late
6/20	WO	5f T	MSW	4th/7 -5L	71	1.3-1	L	Best stride final 16th

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	WO	6½f T	MSW	3rd/10 -4½L	77	6.6-1	L	3Wturn;7Wstr;up for3rd
8/29	WO	7f D	MSW	3rd/7 -8L	80	5.2-1	L	Veer out;eager1/2-7/16

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	WO	6f T	Moc40000	3rd/6 -2½L	72	4.0-1	L	Tracked rail;clear3rd
6/7	WO	6f D	MSW	8th/8 -11L	60	3.5-1	L	3w;6w3/16;checked 1/8

5Unforgettable FaceP. Moran · P. DixonMoran · DixonB66 79 71▼▼-85-1Fair 6-114%▼▼ Big drop -866 79 71B3

Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · Last 3 figs 66 79 71

Jockey Pietro Moran 32% career 15-for-76 on turf this meet (20%) · Trainer Patrick Dixon 28% career 1-for-25 on turf this meet (4%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Edey 8-5, R2: Dontgobackonurword 6-1, R4: Glint Over Essa 12-1, R5: Aretha 4-1 +4 more · Trainer R3: Raging Timber 5-2, R3: Beach Factor 2-1, R7: Takemetothebeach 10-1

★ FASTEST WORK3/5 board here

Still looking for the first win after 7 starts. Back to 7½ furlongs off a 1 3/8 miles race.

PACE HELPS The front end should be a fight, and this one gets to wait on it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Aug 28; 1 work in 30d

RECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD Pietro Moran from post 5 here: 32 wins, 108 top-3 in 214 rides · 18% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	WO	1⅜m T	MSW	6th/7 -5½L	66	6.4-1	L	Set pace;fold rail1/8
9/5	WO	1¼m T	MSW	3rd/10 -3¾L	79	2.6-1	L	4wd 2nd turn;gain show
7/25	WO	1 1/16 D	MSW	3rd/8 -8½L	71	7.0-1	L	Veer in;kept on;up3rd

6Lapin De PlageD. Moran · C. Day-PhillipsMoran · Day-PhillipsB77 70 70▲+6≡@trip 7010-1Fair 15-16%▲ Up +677 70 70 ≡@trip 70B

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +6 · ≡ Steady figures 70–77 · Best fig at today's trip 70 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 70 70

Jockey David Moran 32% career 1-for-18 on turf this meet (6%) · Trainer Catheri Day-Phillips 2-for-16 on turf this meet (12%)

Also today · Trainer R4: Illuminara 8-1, R7: Katie's Grace 2-1, this race: Bad Penny 15-1

Winless in 5 starts at this distance. Purse goes from $71,700 to $125,500, a step up.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 3)

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (1 work in 30d, last 7d ago)

RECORD 0 wins, 4 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD David Moran from post 6 here: 10 wins, 33 top-3 in 109 rides · 8% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	WO	1 1/16 T	Moc40000	3rd/8 -1½L	77	8.0-1	b L	Brk in;stalk;even str
9/12	WO	1m T	MSW	4th/6 -3L	70	2.1-1	b L	Evenly thru-out;minors
8/15	WO	7½f T	MSW	4th/9 -1½L	70	9.6-1	b L	Inside/2p;weakened 1/8

7Bad Penny▼R. Munger · C. Day-PhillipsMunger · Day-PhillipsC71 7415-1Fair 30-14%—71 74C▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 81
Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 71 74
▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 81
Jockey Ryan Munger 30% career 5-for-45 on turf this meet (11%) · Trainer Catheri Day-Phillips 2-for-16 on turf this meet (12%)
Also today · Jockey R4: Illuminara 8-1, R7: Katie's Grace 2-1, R8: Classic Lines 6-1 · Trainer R4: Illuminara 8-1, R7: Katie's Grace 2-1, this race: Lapin De Plage 10-1
Ryan Munger takes over from Romero Ramsay Maragh in the saddle. 5th last time, 2¾ lengths back, in a field of 9.
PACE HELPS Several horses want the lead, which is the early heat a closer is looking for.
TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Traffic trn/str; bmp1/8. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.
WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 7d ago
RECORD Ryan Munger from post 7 here: 12 wins, 58 top-3 in 158 rides · 14% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/10 WO 7f T MSW 5th/9 -2¾L 71 13-1 L Traffic trn/str;bmp1/8
9/19 WO 6½f T MSW 5th/10 -7¾L 74 26-1 L Miss brk;late interest

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	WO	7f T	MSW	5th/9 -2¾L	71	13-1	L	Traffic trn/str;bmp1/8
9/19	WO	6½f T	MSW	5th/10 -7¾L	74	26-1	L	Miss brk;late interest

8Silver GalLSR. Hernandez · P. ParenteHernandez · ParenteA78 66 66▲▲+128-1Fair 10-19%▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best78 66 66ALS

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · Last 3 figs 78 66 66

Longshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 9% against a line of 8%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Rafael Manuel Hernandez 38% career ★ 10-for-50 on turf this meet (20%), #3 of 26 · Trainer Pat Parente 25% career 1-for-5 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Your Valentino 3-1, R4: Whitemudwest 7-2, R5: Majaz 8-5, R7: Madame Obey 12-1 +2 more

CLASS UP

Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf. Runs for $125,500 after a $71,700 race last out.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 2)

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 2 works in 30d and the last 6d back

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 4 starts here

RECORD Rafael Manuel Hernandez from post 8 here: 28 wins, 67 top-3 in 153 rides · 21% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	WO	7f D	Moc40000	3rd/6 -1L	78	22-1	b L	Veer out;duel thru-out
9/10	WO	6½f D	Moc25000	4th/7 -6L	66	2.5-1	b L	Btwn;2-3w;came out3/16
8/16	WO	1⅛m D	MSW	6th/6 -10L	66	26-1	b L	Bumps btwn early;4wide

9Secretly DelightedE. Wilson · M. CasseWilson · CasseA80 69 79▲+48-5Fair 5-230%▲ Up +4 · career best80 69 79A1

Card model 30% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +4 · career best · Last 3 figs 80 69 79

Jockey Emma Jayne Wilson 30% career 6-for-48 on turf this meet (12%) · Trainer Mark Casse 36% career ★ 13-for-61 on turf this meet (21%)

Also today · Jockey R5: Noche De Damas 20-1, R6: I Knew I Could 4-1, R7: Vanity 5-2, R8: Willing Guest 4-1 +2 more · Trainer R5: Majaz 8-5, R7: War Signal 8-1, R7: Vanity 5-2, R8: Willing Guest 4-1 +2 more

Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 80, with 79 next best. Was 8th of 9 at the first call last time.

PACE HELPS The front end should be a fight, and this one gets to wait on it.

TROUBLED TRIP 2-4w; alter1/16; gaining last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 34d ago

RECORD Emma Jayne Wilson from post 9 here: 5 wins, 18 top-3 in 55 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	WO	7f T	MSW	2nd/9 -2¼L	80	2.1-1	b L	2-4w;alter1/16;gaining
9/9	KD	6½f T	MSW	5th/11 -3¾L	69	3.6-1	L	6-5w hill;widest upr
8/22	SAR	1 3/16 T	MSW	6th/8 -4½L	79	4.7-1	L	Tracked 2-3w; weakened

10Golden SunsetA. Adams · R. RaghunathAdams · RaghunathC71 71 66►≡12-1<1%► Steady71 71 66 ≡C
Card model <1% · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 66–71 · Last 3 figs 71 71 66
Jockey Austin Adams 25% career 1-for-16 on turf this meet (6%) · Trainer Ravendra B Raghunath 22% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet
Also today · Jockey R6: Hearts Collide 12-1
Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here. Maiden through 20 starts.
EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 41d back)
RECORD 0 wins, 4 on the board from 19 starts here
RECORD Austin Adams from post 10 here: 4 wins, 8 top-3 in 26 rides · 9% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/18 WO 6½f D MSW 3rd/7 -6½L 71 13-1 b L Inside; along for show
9/26 WO 6f D MSW 4th/6 -8L 71 46-1 b L Best stride late 6wd
8/29 WO 7f D MSW 7th/7 -13L 66 26-1 b L Showed little thru-out

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	WO	6½f D	MSW	3rd/7 -6½L	71	13-1	b L	Inside; along for show
9/26	WO	6f D	MSW	4th/6 -8L	71	46-1	b L	Best stride late 6wd
8/29	WO	7f D	MSW	7th/7 -13L	66	26-1	b L	Showed little thru-out

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: honest. Speed from #2, #6, #8.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

WOODBINE · RACE 9

UPCOMING

Maiden Special Weight

Field

10 runners

Purse

$125,500

Post

5:27 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#9 · 30%

Maiden Special Weight, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

● Track record at 7 1/2 Furlongs: 87.68

The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #9 Secretly Delighted (a closer, M/L 8-5). Recent figures: 80 · 69 · 79. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #2 Souper Gin's World at 4-1. Use #5 Unforgettable Face in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #9 SECRETLY DELIGHTED (8-5) — our number agrees.
#9 SECRETLY DELIGHTED — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (29.5% to their 28.3%).
#2 SOUPER GIN'S WORLD — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 17.6%, they've got 14.7%.
#5 UNFORGETTABLE FACE — our #3 number, about right at the windows (13.3% to their 12.3%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#2 SOUPER GIN'S WORLD — we make it 17.6%, the morning line works out to 14.7%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #2 Souper Gin's World; pressure from #8 Silver Gal, #6 Lapin De Plage; the shape helps #5 Unforgettable Face, #7 Bad Penny, #9 Secretly Delighted; and works against #1 Double Or Nothing, #2 Souper Gin's World, #6 Lapin De Plage.

Lead

2Souper Gin's World968Silver Gal886Lapin De Plage87

Press

none

Stalk

4Lively Up933Fury's Flight8810Golden Sunset78

7Bad Penny879Secretly Delighted865Unforgettable Face84

No style yet

1Double Or Nothing86

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Souper Gin's World

Lively Up

Fury's Flight

Silver Gal

Lapin De Plage

Golden Sunset

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Unforgettable Face

Bad Penny

Secretly Delighted

Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

ROLLING DOUBLE / EXACTA / 0.20 TRIFECTA / .20 SUPERFECTA

0.20 PICK 3 (RACES 9-10-11)/ $1 SWINGER

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

BET OPTIONS

WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta

Wagers offered on this race — analysis only, no stake sizing.