R3 Woodbine · Maiden Optional Claiming $40,000

1:33 PM ET · 1 1/16 Miles Turf · $71,700 · 3 runners (4 out)1:33 PM · 1 1/16m Turf · 3 runners (4 out)

Official $72K · Maiden Optional Claiming $40,000

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Full Star▼L. Salles · L. BarrowSalles · BarrowB68 44 60▲▲+13↕15-14%▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best68 44 60 ↕B▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 79

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 44–68 · Last 3 figs 68 44 60

▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 79

Jockey Leo Salles 27% career 0-for-11 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer L Rodney Barrow 32% career 1-for-5 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R4: Red Destiny 6-1

CLASS UP

Purse goes from $53,600 to $71,700, a step up. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 68 against a 79 par.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 43d back)

RECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD Leo Salles from post 1 here: 14 wins, 52 top-3 in 158 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	WO	1m T	Moc25000	3rd/10	68	43-1	b L	Brsh st;lead3W1/4;fade
9/25	WO	7f D	MCL 10kc	7th/9 -6½L	44	6.8-1	b L	Chased 3w; gave way
9/7	WO	6½f D	MCL 10k	3rd/9 -1L	60	16-1	b L	Mildly ins1/8;up 3rd

2Paddy Holiday▲F. Aebly · K. AttardAebly · AttardA74 66 69►@trip 693-120%► Steady74 66 69@trip 69A▲ Lone speed on early pace

Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 69 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 66 69

▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey Fraser Aebly 32% career 10-for-70 on turf this meet (14%) · Trainer Kevin Attard 33% career 5-for-50 on turf this meet (10%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Twist Of Sugar 2-1, R4: Karat Gold 2-1, R5: Pharoah's Affair 8-1, R7: War Signal 8-1 +2 more · Trainer R5: Aretha 4-1, R8: Ghost Striker 10-1, R8: Annastaij 8-1

Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here. Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 81, with 73 next best.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 13d back

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD Fraser Aebly from post 2 here: 32 wins, 114 top-3 in 220 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	WO	7f D	Moc40000	4th/7 -4L	74	5.1-1	b L	Wait5/16;evnly;fringes
9/6	WO	7½f T	Moc40000	5th/9 -5L	66	3.1-1	b L	5Wstr chance;flattened
8/15	WO	1 1/16 T	Moc40000	3rd/11	69	2.3-1	b L	Swept 4w;shift in;fade

3Stella Point▼D. Nelson · N. WilliamsNelson · WilliamsC57 40 60▲▲+13↕20-14%▲▲ Big jump +1357 40 60 ↕C▼ Best fig 60 is 5+ under today's par 79

Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +13 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 33–60 · Last 3 figs 57 40 60

▼ Best fig 60 is 5+ under today's par 79

Jockey Dane Nelson 31% career 1-for-10 on turf this meet (10%) · Trainer Noel A Williams 31% career 0-for-3 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Alfred Bellows 10-1, R11: Scat Humor 20-1

CLASS UP0/5 board here

Goes 1 1/16 miles after running 6 furlongs last time. Beaten 7 lengths for 5th in a 5-horse race at WO.

EVEN PACE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 29d ago

RECORD Not on the board in 5 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	WO	6f T	Moc40000	5th/5 -7L	57	27-1	b L	Could not keep up turn
9/11	WO	6½f D	Moc25000	4th/4 -15L	40	21-1	b L	Retreat5/16;lost touch
8/23	WO	7f D	Moc25000	6th/6 -12L	60	50-1	b L	Lagged behind turn

4Mystic Path▼LSRan 2ndL. Contreras · J. CarrollContreras · CarrollB64 60 71►8-1Fair 10-110%► Steady64 60 71B▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 79LS

Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 64 60 71

▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 79LS

Longshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 10% against a line of 9%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Luis Contreras 28% career 2-for-13 on turf this meet (15%) · Trainer Josie Carroll 38% career 2-for-16 on turf this meet (12%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Sonofaghost 8-1 · Trainer R7: Madame Obey 12-1

Jky 7/56 from post 4

7th last time, 12 lengths back, in a field of 9. A 71 is the high figure lately, short of the 79 par.

EVEN PACE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 2 works in 30d and the last 7d back

RECORD Not on the board in 3 starts here

RECORD Luis Contreras from post 4 here: 7 wins, 27 top-3 in 56 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/6	WO	7½f T	Moc40000	7th/9 -12L	64	4.8-1	b L	Stp slw;passed tired
7/5	WO	1m T	MSW	7th/10 -12L	60	7.2-1	b L	Bump/tight brk;no bid
5/24	WO	7f D	MSW	7th/11 -14L	71	4.8-1	b L	6wstr;little impact

5Erie Shores▼D. Gaskin · T. GattellaroGaskin · GattellaroB64 64 69▼-3≡@trip 706-114%▼ Down -364 64 69 ≡@trip 70B▼ Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 79
Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -3 · ≡ Steady figures 64–69 · Best fig at today's trip 70 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 64 64 69
▼ Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 79
Jockey Da-Sean Zavier Gaskin 28% career 1-for-10 on turf this meet (10%) · Trainer Tony Michael Gattellaro 28% career 1-for-5 on turf this meet
Also today · Jockey R2: Arami's Speighster 8-1, R9: Fury's Flight 6-1 · Trainer R9: Fury's Flight 6-1
★ FASTEST WORK
Still looking for the first win after 6 starts. Was running in maiden special weight; today's maiden opt clm is an easier level on paper.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 27 (5F in :58.60), 1 work in 30d
RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 6 starts here
RECORD Da-Sean Zavier Gaskin from post 5 here: 6 wins, 26 top-3 in 81 rides · 9% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/4 WO 1⅜m T MSW 6th/6 -9½L 64 43-1 L Lead;used up;empty
8/15 WO 1⅛m D MSW 7th/7 -10L 64 44-1 L Stalked 2-3w; faded
7/26 WO 1 1/16 D MSW 5th/10 -9L 69 33-1 L 2-3w turns;improved

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	WO	1⅜m T	MSW	6th/6 -9½L	64	43-1	L	Lead;used up;empty
8/15	WO	1⅛m D	MSW	7th/7 -10L	64	44-1	L	Stalked 2-3w; faded
7/26	WO	1 1/16 D	MSW	5th/10 -9L	69	33-1	L	2-3w turns;improved

6Raging Timber▼Ran 1stC. Douglas · P. DixonDouglas · DixonA73 65 71▲+5@trip 735-2Fair 4-120%▲ Up +5 · career best73 65 71@trip 73A▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 792

Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +5 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 73 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 65 71

▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 79

Jockey Christoff Douglas 14% career 7-for-47 on turf this meet (15%) · Trainer Patrick Dixon 28% career 1-for-25 on turf this meet (4%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Vegas Road 6-1, R6: Princess Anna 20-1, R7: Takemetothebeach 10-1, R8: Crazy Busy 20-1 +3 more · Trainer this race: Beach Factor 2-1, R7: Takemetothebeach 10-1, R9: Unforgettable Face 5-1

2/3 board here

Carries 116 pounds, 5 less than last time. Finished 3rd in a 7-horse race at WO, beaten 3 lengths.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 29 days ago

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

RECORD Christoff Douglas from post 6 here: 4 wins, 17 top-3 in 54 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	WO	1 1/16 T	Moc40000	3rd/7 -3L	73	5.3-1	L	2-4w turns; ran on
9/6	WO	7½f T	Moc40000	6th/9 -7½L	65	1.1-1	L	Brushed gate;rank
8/7	WO	7½f T	Moc25000	3rd/9 -5L	71	9.7-1	L	Step slow;3-7w;gaining

7Beach Factor▼Ran 3rdR. Walcott · P. DixonWalcott · DixonA68 73 69►≡@trip 692-1Fair 5-229%► Steady68 73 69 ≡@trip 69A▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 791

Card model 29% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 68–73 · Best fig at today's trip 69 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 73 69

▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 79

Jockey Rico W Walcott 30% career 0-for-14 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Patrick Dixon 28% career 1-for-25 on turf this meet (4%)

Also today · Trainer this race: Raging Timber 5-2, R7: Takemetothebeach 10-1, R9: Unforgettable Face 5-1

4/8 board here

Back to 1 1/16 miles off a 1 3/8 miles race. Worked 4F in :49.20 on Aug 7, 3rd of 14 at the distance.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 7d back

RECORD 0 wins, 4 on the board from 8 starts here

RECORD Rico W Walcott from post 7 here: 4 wins, 7 top-3 in 30 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	WO	1⅜m T	MSW	5th/6 -8L	68	14-1	b L	Could not quicken5/16
9/7	WO	1¼m T	MSW	5th/7 -3¼L	73	6.5-1	b L	Trailed; ran on inside
8/15	WO	1 1/16 T	Moc40000	2nd/11 -5L	69	2.8-1	b L	Chk'd 5/16&1/4;gaining

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: little early speed. Favors horses who can be close.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #7 Beach Factor, finished 3rd.

1st6Raging TimberWin$7.00Place$4.00Show$2.90Our #2

2nd4Mystic PathWin—Place$4.30Show$2.80Our #5

3rd7Beach FactorWin—Place—Show$2.90Our #1

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

WOODBINE · RACE 3

OFFICIAL

Maiden Optional Claiming $40,000

Field

7 runners

Purse

$71,700

Post

1:33 PM ET

Pace

Tactical / Honest

Card model top pick

#7 · 29%

Maiden Claiming, for 3-year-olds and up.

Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.

● Track record at 1 1/16 Miles: 98.34

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #7 Beach Factor (a closer, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 68 · 73 · 69. Backup is #6 Raging Timber at 5-2. Use #2 Paddy Holiday in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · 3RD

Top pick Beach Factor ran 3rd · Raging Timber won (our #2)

What worked

✓ Top pick in the money (3rd)
✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #2)
✓ Our top 3 finished 3rd, 1st, —

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#7 BEACH FACTOR	3rd
#2	#6 RAGING TIMBER	1st
#3	#2 PADDY HOLIDAY	—
#4	#5 ERIE SHORES	—
#5	#4 MYSTIC PATH	2nd

Actual finish

1st	#6 Raging Timber	our #2
2nd	#4 Mystic Path	our #5
3rd	#7 Beach Factor	our #1

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #7 BEACH FACTOR (2-1) — our number agrees.
#7 BEACH FACTOR — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (27.2% to their 27.0%).
#6 RAGING TIMBER — our #2 number, about right at the windows (22.6% to their 23.2%).
#2 PADDY HOLIDAY — our #3 number, about right at the windows (20.7% to their 20.3%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

5Erie Shores862Paddy Holiday851Full Star806Raging Timber77

7Beach Factor73

No style yet

3Stella Point814Mystic Path76

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Erie Shores

Paddy Holiday

Full Star

Raging Timber

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Beach Factor

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Bet types

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ROLLING DOUBLE / EXACTA / 0.20 TRIFECTA / 0.20 SUPERFECTA

0.20 PICK 3 (RACES 3-4-5)/ $1 SWINGER

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

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