R7 Woodbine · Optional Claiming $50,000

4:08 PM ET · 1 1/16 Miles Turf · $128,200 · 7 runners4:08 PM · 1 1/16m Turf · 7 runners

Upcoming $128K · Optional Claiming $50,000

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1TakemetothebeachC. Douglas · P. DixonDouglas · DixonB74 70 94▼▼-9↕@trip 8010-1Fair 20-15%▼▼ Big drop -974 70 94 ↕@trip 80B

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 70–94 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 70 94

Jockey Christoff Douglas 14% career 7-for-47 on turf this meet (15%) · Trainer Patrick Dixon 28% career 1-for-25 on turf this meet (4%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Vegas Road 6-1, R3: Raging Timber 5-2, R6: Princess Anna 20-1, R8: Crazy Busy 20-1 +3 more · Trainer R3: Raging Timber 5-2, R3: Beach Factor 2-1, R9: Unforgettable Face 5-1

★ FASTEST WORKJky 6/37 from post 1

Tops the field on speed figures, a 94 against 90 for the next best. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.

PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 8)

WORKS SHARP 5f in :59.20 on Aug 8 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD Christoff Douglas from post 1 here: 6 wins, 18 top-3 in 37 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	WO	1m T	OC 50k n2x	5th/6 by hd	74	7.3-1	b L	Set soft pace;wilted16
8/16	WO	1 1/16 D	OC 50k n2xc	5th/6 -3L	70	1.4-1	b L	Duel inside;gave way
6/28	WO	1 1/16 D	OC 80k n3x	3rd/7	94	3.5-1	b L	To lead1/2;caught late

2Katie's GraceR. Munger · C. Day-PhillipsMunger · Day-PhillipsA67 88 88▼▼-20↕2-1Fair 5-229%▼▼ Big drop -2067 88 88 ↕A1

Card model 29% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -20 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 67–88 · Last 3 figs 67 88 88

Jockey Ryan Munger 30% career 5-for-45 on turf this meet (11%) · Trainer Catheri Day-Phillips 2-for-16 on turf this meet (12%)

Also today · Jockey R4: Illuminara 8-1, R8: Classic Lines 6-1, R9: Bad Penny 15-1 · Trainer R4: Illuminara 8-1, R9: Lapin De Plage 10-1, R9: Bad Penny 15-1

6/10 board here

Purse drops from $400,000 to $128,200 against its last start. Cuts back from 1 1/2 miles to 1 1/16 miles.

EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 8d back

RECORD 2 wins, 6 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD Ryan Munger from post 2 here: 35 wins, 96 top-3 in 200 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	WO	1½m T	rBreedersB400k	5th/6 -5L	67	0.8-1	b L	Rallied 3wd; outkicked
9/6	WO	1¼m T	frWondrWhreB250k	2nd/6 -½L	88	3.5-1	b L	3-5w;duel str;held off
8/8	WO	1 1/16 D	frBisonCityB250k	Won/5 by 1½	88	3.9-1	b L	Drove by4W mid-stretch

3War Signal▲F. Aebly · M. CasseAebly · CasseB84 41 75▲▲+25↕8-1Fair 10-19%▲▲ Big jump +25 · career best84 41 75 ↕B▲ Last fig 84 at/above par 84

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +25 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 41–84 · Last 3 figs 84 41 75

▲ Last fig 84 at/above par 84

Jockey Fraser Aebly 32% career 10-for-70 on turf this meet (14%) · Trainer Mark Casse 36% career ★ 13-for-61 on turf this meet (21%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Twist Of Sugar 2-1, R3: Paddy Holiday 3-1, R4: Karat Gold 2-1, R5: Pharoah's Affair 8-1 +2 more · Trainer R5: Majaz 8-5, this race: Vanity 5-2, R8: Willing Guest 4-1, R8: Ez Miss Sassy 5-2 +2 more

60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Goes 1 1/16 miles after running 7 furlongs last time. 4th last time, 2 lengths back, in a field of 7.

PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 6)

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 3 works in 30d, last 15d ago

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 9 starts here

RECORD Fraser Aebly from post 3 here: 38 wins, 106 top-3 in 239 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/14	WO	7f T	OC 50k n2x	4th/7 -2L	84	13-1	L	Stalk 3w trn;stdy late
5/29	WO	1 1/16 D	OC 50k n2x	4th/5 -22L	41	7.3-1	L	Lost touch far turn
4/25	WO	6½f D	OC 50k n2x	4th/5 -7½L	75	14-1	L	Trailed;failed to fire

4Mew N Me▲P. Moran · A. McPhersonMoran · McPhersonA88 82 85▲+5≡7-2Fair 5-117%▲ Up +5 · career best88 82 85 ≡A▲ Last fig 88 at/above par 843

Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +5 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 82–88 · Last 3 figs 88 82 85

▲ Last fig 88 at/above par 84

Jockey Pietro Moran 32% career 15-for-76 on turf this meet (20%) · Trainer Alex McPherson 1-for-2 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Edey 8-5, R2: Dontgobackonurword 6-1, R4: Glint Over Essa 12-1, R5: Aretha 4-1 +4 more

★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST7/11 board here

Won last out in a 10-horse optional claiming race at WO. Was 9th of 10 at the first call last time.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 76d back)

RECORD 3 wins, 7 on the board from 11 starts here

RECORD Pietro Moran from post 4 here: 40 wins, 99 top-3 in 220 rides · 18% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	WO	7f T	OC 50k n2l	Won/10 by 3½	88	12-1	b L	Fan 8w;gaining;just up
9/26	WO	6½f D	OC 50k n2l	3rd/9 -3½L	82	2.2-1	b L	Closed willingly 5wd
8/29	WO	7f D	OC 50k n2l	2nd/7 -1½L	85	8.0-1	b L	5Wstr charging;almost

5Talent Show▲J. Alderson · D. RombisAlderson · RombisA90 81 70▲▲+14@trip 906-1Fair 8-110%▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best90 81 70@trip 90A▲ Last fig 90 at/above par 84

Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 90 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 90 81 70

▲ Last fig 90 at/above par 84

Jockey Jeffrey Ian Alderson 28% career ★ 5-for-20 on turf this meet (25%), #1 of 26 · Trainer Debra E Rombis 24% career 3-for-5 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R5: Faith Understood 15-1, R6: Flatter Effect 2-1, R9: Lively Up 12-1, R10: Earendel 20-1 +1 more

WON LAST6/8 board here

Has moved up each time out, 70 to 81 to 90. Last start was a win, in a 9-horse optional claiming race at WO at 5-1.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 73d back)

RECORD 3 wins, 6 on the board from 8 starts here

RECORD Jeffrey Ian Alderson from post 5 here: 6 wins, 27 top-3 in 89 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	WO	1 1/16 T	OC 32k n1x	Won/9	90	5.0-1	b L	Inside bid;edged clear
9/20	WO	1m T	Alw s	Won/7 by 2	81	1.9-1	b L	Chck3x's;up at wire
8/29	WO	1 1/16 D	Alw s	5th/7 -3¼L	70	0.9-1	b L	Check2Pmidway1st turn

6Madame Obey▼LSR. Hernandez · J. CarrollHernandez · CarrollC72 77 86▼▼-912-1Fair 12-18%▼▼ Big drop -972 77 86C▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (72 vs 77)LS

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · Last 3 figs 72 77 86

▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (72 vs 77)LS

Longshot read: 12-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 8% against a line of 6%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Rafael Manuel Hernandez 38% career ★ 10-for-50 on turf this meet (20%), #3 of 26 · Trainer Josie Carroll 38% career 2-for-16 on turf this meet (12%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Your Valentino 3-1, R4: Whitemudwest 7-2, R5: Majaz 8-5, R8: Glorious Gem 9-5 +2 more · Trainer R3: Mystic Path 8-1

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Figures have slipped: 86, 77, 72 over its last three. Worked 4F in :48.20 on Oct 5, 2nd of 10 at the distance.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 3 works in 30d, last 7d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 3 on the board from 8 starts here

RECORD Rafael Manuel Hernandez from post 6 here: 45 wins, 116 top-3 in 259 rides · 21% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	WO	1m T	OC 50k n2x	6th/6 -3¾L	72	7.5-1	b L	Stp slw;chased;tired
7/6	WO	7½f T	OC 50k n2x	5th/7 -9L	77	1.4-1	b L	Brk out;passed tired
6/6	WO	7½f T	OC 32k n1x	Won/10 by 1½	86	2.9-1	b L	Swung 4w;led late;held

7VanityE. Wilson · M. CasseWilson · CasseB79 87 81►5-2Fair 7-223%► Steady79 87 81B2

Card model 23% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 79 87 81

Jockey Emma Jayne Wilson 30% career 6-for-48 on turf this meet (12%) · Trainer Mark Casse 36% career ★ 13-for-61 on turf this meet (21%)

Also today · Jockey R5: Noche De Damas 20-1, R6: I Knew I Could 4-1, R8: Willing Guest 4-1, R9: Secretly Delighted 8-5 +2 more · Trainer R5: Majaz 8-5, this race: War Signal 8-1, R8: Willing Guest 4-1, R8: Ez Miss Sassy 5-2 +2 more

WON LAST4/4 board here

Switches from dirt to turf. Winner of a 7-horse optional claiming race at WO last time.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

TROUBLED TRIP Shuffle1/4; rushed home last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 30 days ago

RECORD On the board in all 4 starts here (2 wins)

RECORD Emma Jayne Wilson from post 7 here: 20 wins, 48 top-3 in 139 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	WO	1 1/16 D	OC 50k n2l	Won/7 by 2	79	2.5-1	L	Shuffle1/4;rushed home
8/29	WO	7f D	MSW	Won/7 by hd	87	1.1-1	L	Circle3W5/16;inch away
11/2	WO	1 1/16 D	Mazarine G3	2nd/6 -2L	81	7.8-1	L	5Wstr;kept coming on

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

WOODBINE · RACE 7

UPCOMING

Optional Claiming $50,000

Field

7 runners

Purse

$128,200

Post

4:08 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#2 · 29%

Claiming $50,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, that have not won two races other than maiden, claiming, or starter.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 1 1/16 Miles: 98.34

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #2 Katie's Grace (a closer, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 67 · 88 · 88. Backup is #7 Vanity at 5-2. Use #4 Mew N Me in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #2 KATIE'S GRACE (2-1) — our number agrees.
#2 KATIE'S GRACE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (27.0% to their 26.4%).
#7 VANITY — our #2 number, about right at the windows (22.3% to their 22.6%).
#4 MEW N ME — our #3 number, about right at the windows (18.8% to their 17.6%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #3 War Signal; pressure from #1 Takemetothebeach, #7 Vanity; the shape helps #4 Mew N Me, #6 Madame Obey, #7 Vanity; and works against #1 Takemetothebeach, #3 War Signal.

Lead

3War Signal921Takemetothebeach80

Press

7Vanity786Madame Obey77

Stalk

4Mew N Me86

5Talent Show832Katie's Grace46

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

War Signal

Mew N Me

Takemetothebeach

Vanity

Madame Obey

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Talent Show

Katie's Grace

Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

ROLLING DOUBLE / EXACTA / 0.20 TRIFECTA / 0.20 SUPERFECTA

0.20 PICK 3 (RACES 7-8-9)/0.20 PICK 5 (RACES 7-8-9-10-11) / $1 SWINGER

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

BET OPTIONS

WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta

Wagers offered on this race — analysis only, no stake sizing.