1Let's Go SouperRan 1stR. Maragh · G. CoxMaragh · CoxA67 81 68▼▼-117-2Fair 6-114%
▼▼ Big drop -1167 81 68A3Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -11 · Last 3 figs 67 81 68
Jockey Romero Ramsay Maragh 27% career 2-for-37 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Gail Cox 42% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet5/10 board hereTops the field on speed figures, an 84 against 80 for the next best. Was running in optional claiming; today's $25,000 claiming is an easier level on paper.
PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 3)WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 7d agoRECORD 1 win, 5 on the board from 10 starts hereRECORD Romero Ramsay Maragh from post 1 here: 7 wins, 31 top-3 in 61 rides · 10% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/27 WO 6f D OC 40k 6th/7 -5L 67 4.1-1 L Made little impression 9/5 WO 6½f D OC 40k 3rd/5 81 3.3-1 L Open up3/16;no match 8/8 WO 6f D OC 40k 8th/8 -6L 68 3.5-1 L Stumbled st;had little 2Vegas RoadRan 2ndC. Douglas · T. NeigelDouglas · NeigelB65 75 80▼▼-11@trip 726-1Fair 10-19%
▼▼ Big drop -1165 75 80@trip 72BCard model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -11 · Best fig at today's trip 72 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 65 75 80
Jockey Christoff Douglas 14% career 11-for-81 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Tara Neigel 20% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meetAlso today · Jockey R3: Raging Timber 5-2, R6: Princess Anna 20-1, R7: Takemetothebeach 10-1, R8: Crazy Busy 20-1 +3 moreFigures have slipped: 80, 75, 65 over its last three. 6th last time, 2 lengths back, in a field of 9.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Stumbled; lack rally1/8. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Jul 12; 2 works in 30dRECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 7 starts hereRECORD Christoff Douglas from post 2 here: 3 wins, 14 top-3 in 46 rides · 11% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/17 WO 5½f D OC 40k 6th/9 -2L 65 11-1 b L Stumbled;lack rally1/8 8/27 WO 5f T OC 40k 4th/7 -2½L 75 7.2-1 b L Chased turn;stalled1/8 8/8 WO 6f D OC 40k 4th/8 80 11-1 b L Stumble st;led;fade70y 3Twist of SugarRan 6thF. Aebly · S. ChircopAebly · ChircopA72 75 70►@trip 702-1Fair 7-222%
► Steady72 75 70@trip 70A2Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 70 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 75 70
Jockey Fraser Aebly 32% career 17-for-96 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Steven Chircop 30% career 4-for-25 on dirt this meet (16%)Also today · Jockey R3: Paddy Holiday 3-1, R4: Karat Gold 2-1, R5: Pharoah's Affair 8-1, R7: War Signal 8-1 +2 more · Trainer R4: Karat Gold 2-1, R5: Faith Understood 15-1, R10: Souper Diva 8-1, R10: Rock Hard Rose 3-1 +1 more★ FASTEST WORK6/11 board hereWent to the front early last out (early pace figure 93). Carries 123 pounds, 4 more than last time.
PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 8)WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.00 on Oct 24 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30dRECORD 1 win, 6 on the board from 11 starts hereRECORD Fraser Aebly from post 3 here: 38 wins, 106 top-3 in 239 rides · 14% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/2 WO 5f D Clm 25k n2l 2nd/6 72 1.4-1 b L Clear; second best 8/30 WO 5f T Clm 25k n2l 3rd/6 75 3.0-1 b L Lead;ask wire;nabbed 8/1 WO 5½f D Clm 15k n2l 4th/6 by hd 70 2.9-1 b L Early lead rail;fade16 4KimberlinaLSRan 5thS. Civaci · S. AttardCivaci · AttardB71 73 72►≡@trip 728-1Fair 10-19%
► Steady71 73 72 ≡@trip 72BLSCard model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 71–75 · Best fig at today's trip 72 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 73 72
LSLongshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 9% against a line of 9%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Sahin Civaci 40% career ★ 5-for-24 on dirt this meet (21%), #2 of 31 · Trainer Steve Attard 33% career 4-for-29 on dirt this meet (14%) ★ hot★ FASTEST WORKLast out was 6th, 3½ lengths behind the winner, in a 6-horse $23,500 claiming race at WO. Fastest 3F work of its morning on Jul 20 (:35.40), a sign it is training forwardly.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 70d agoRECORD 0 wins, 4 on the board from 10 starts hereRECORD Sahin Civaci from post 4 here: 52 wins, 116 top-3 in 201 rides · 23% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/8 WO 6f D Clm 25k n2l 6th/6 -3½L 71 2.7-1 b L Could not quicken5/16 9/17 WO 6f D Clm 25k n2l 4th/6 -2½L 73 4.8-1 b L Chase3Wturn;evenly 8/30 WO 5f T Clm 25k n2l 4th/6 -5½L 72 4.0-1 b L 4Wstr;gradually minors 5Astonesthrowaway▼Ran 4thE. Flores · N. NosowenkoFlores · NosowenkoB62 60 35▲+4↕12-1Fair 20-14%
▲ Up +462 60 35 ↕B▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesCard model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +4 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 35–78 · Last 3 figs 62 60 35
▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesJockey Eswan Flores 32% career 5-for-36 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Nicholas Nosowenko 25% career 0-for-16 on dirt this meet (0%)Also today · Jockey R10: Society's Kat 12-1, R11: Definite Diva 5-2 · Trainer R11: Definite Diva 5-2Has moved up each time out, 35 to 60 to 62. Worked 4F in :49.40 on Oct 23, 3rd of 7 at the distance.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 8d back)RECORD Eswan Flores from post 5 here: 15 wins, 56 top-3 in 152 rides · 12% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/2 WO 5f D Clm 25k n2l 4th/6 -4L 62 18-1 b L Inside;off rail 1/4 8/30 WO 5f T Clm 25k n2l 6th/6 -6L 60 4.6-1 b L Retreated on rail turn 4/20 AQU 6f D fsAlw72000n1x 8th/8 -16L 35 5.0-1 L Chased 4-3w; faltered 6EdeyRan 3rdP. Moran · J. EnsomMoran · EnsomA71 78 79▼-7≡8-5Fair 7-541%
▼ Down -771 78 79 ≡A1Card model 41% · Fair odds 7-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -7 · ≡ Steady figures 71–79 · Last 3 figs 71 78 79
Also today · Jockey R2: Dontgobackonurword 6-1, R4: Glint Over Essa 12-1, R5: Aretha 4-1, R6: Family Love 5-2 +4 moreJim Ensom takes over the training from Kevin Attard. Owns the highest recent figure here at 84.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 13d agoRECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 4 starts hereRECORD Pietro Moran from post 6 here: 37 wins, 100 top-3 in 223 rides · 18% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/27 WO 6f D OC 40k c 4th/7 -2L 71 1.4-1 L Kept trying;fringes 8/22 WO 1 1/16 D OC 50k n2l 4th/5 -½L 78 1.9-1 L Set pace;faded2P16th 7/11 WO 1m T OC 50k n2l 2nd/8 79 3.6-1 L Pace;clear;reeled in
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
● Official result
$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below
Our top pick, #6 Edey, finished 3rd.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
WOODBINE · RACE 1
OFFICIALClaiming $25,000
Claiming $25,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, that have not won two races lifetime.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 5 1/2 Furlongs: 62.28
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #6 Edey (a presser/stalker, M/L 8-5). Recent figures: 71 · 78 · 79. Backup is #3 Twist Of Sugar at 2-1. Use #1 Let's Go Souper in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
● OUTCOME · 3RD
Top pick Edey ran 3rd · Let`s Go Souper won (our #3)
What worked
- ✓ Top pick in the money (3rd)
- ✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #3)
- ✓ Our top 3 finished 3rd, 6th, 1st
TBredIQ ranking → finish
| #1 | #6 EDEY | 3rd |
| #2 | #3 TWIST OF SUGAR | 6th |
| #3 | #1 LET'S GO SOUPER | 1st |
| #4 | #2 VEGAS ROAD | 2nd |
| #5 | #4 KIMBERLINA | 5th |
Actual finish
| 1st | #1 Let's Go Souper | our #3 |
| 2nd | #2 Vegas Road | our #4 |
| 3rd | #6 Edey | our #1 |
| 4th | #5 Astonesthrowaway | our #6 |
| 5th | #4 Kimberlina | our #5 |
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #6 EDEY (8-5) — our number agrees.
- #6 EDEY — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (31.9% to their 30.3%).
- #3 TWIST OF SUGAR — our #2 number, about right at the windows (25.5% to their 26.2%).
- #1 LET'S GO SOUPER — our #3 number, about right at the windows (17.3% to their 17.5%).
Model vs the morning line
- The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #3 Twist Of Sugar; pressure from #1 Let's Go Souper, #2 Vegas Road; the shape helps #2 Vegas Road, #4 Kimberlina, #5 Astonesthrowaway; and works against #1 Let's Go Souper, #3 Twist Of Sugar.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
ROLLING DOUBLE / EXACTA / 0.20 TRIFECTA / 0.20 SUPERFECTA
0.20 PICK 3 (RACES 1-2-3)/ $1 SWINGER
BET OPTIONS
WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta