Pick sheet

Race 104:45 PM Trial

1.8F · Dirt · 9 entered. Our model's top pick, Eyesa Chick Magnet, is 40% to win (morning line implies 29%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #5 Eyesa Chick Magnet ML 2-1 Fair 3-2 Model #1 ▲ Up +3 · career best ≡ Steady 81–88

Jockey C. Esqueda · Trainer S. Charette-Hill · Dist 7: 4-1-0 · 37 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	PRM	1.59091f D	ValJunFuG3 G3	2nd/10 -2½L	88	4.0-1	b LB	Outside; good finish
9/6	PRM	1.59091f D	FutTrl8000	Won/8	86	1.9-1	b LB	Took over; held clear
7/4	PRM	1.59091f D	PRMGoldFut264k	4th/10 by nk	88	16-1	b LB	Up close; yield late

Case: Last out 2nd in the ValJunFuG3-G3 at PRM. Last Brisnet figures 88-86-88. 4-for-7 at the distance. S. Charette-Hill / C. Esqueda.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1.59091f). Never raced at Will Rogers Downs.

Contender #6 Crash For Kash ML 3-1 Fair 7-2 Model #2 Top last-race fig ▲ Up +6 · career best ★ Best at 1.81818f dirt: 92 ≡ Steady 86–95

Jockey R. Garcia · Trainer J. Olmstead · KEE 2: 0-2-0 · Dist 7: 2-2-0 · best fig at 1.81818f dirt 92 · 21 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	WRD	1½f D	Alw n3l	2nd/10 -2L	95	1.3-1	b L	Lunged st;closed fast
9/14	WRD	1.59091f D	sFutTrl5000	2nd/8 -2L	86	4.5-1	b L	Step slow;closed gap
8/8	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	4th/10 -¾L	89	2.9-1	b L	Bid; tired;

Case: Last out 2nd in the Alw21160n3l at WRD. Last Brisnet figures 95-86-89. Best at today's distance 92. 2-for-7 at the distance. 0-for-2 at Will Rogers Downs. J. Olmstead / R. Garcia.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Use #7 Taco Tuezday ML 4-1 Fair 6-1 Model #3 ▼▼ Big drop -9 Last out 8th/10 -4¼L in the ValJunFuG3-G3 at PRM. Last Brisnet figures 70-82-84. 2-for-6 at the distance. J. Olmstead / A. Alvidrez. Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1.59091f). Never raced at Will Rogers Downs.

Jockey A. Alvidrez · Trainer J. Olmstead · Dist 6: 2-0-0 · 37 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	PRM	1.59091f D	ValJunFuG3 G3	8th/10 -4¼L	70	18-1	b LB	Bumped after start
9/6	PRM	1.59091f D	FutTrl8000	Won/8	82	2.9-1	b LB	Kicked clear
7/19	PRM	1.36364f D	MSW	Won/6	84	2.6-1	b LB	Kept clear

Narrowing the field: A #1, #5, #6 · B #2, #3, #7 · C #8, #9 · ? #4 (no figures yet, never thrown out)

Angles: #9 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (75 vs 80)

R10 WRD · Trial

4:45 PM ET · 400 Yards Dirt · $5,000 · 8 runners (1 out)4:45 PM · 1.8f Dirt · 8 runners (1 out)

Official $5,000 · Trial

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Dos GrandioseRan 3rdR. Cruz · D. KeenerCruz · KeenerA85 82 82▲+5≡6-1Fair 7-112%▲ Up +585 82 82 ≡A

Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +5 · ≡ Steady figures 76–85 · Last 3 figs 85 82 82

Jockey Roman Cruz 33% career ★ 25-for-111 on dirt this meet (23%), #3 of 33 · Trainer Dee Keener 35% career ★ 7-for-34 on dirt this meet (21%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Emerald Bay 2-1, R3: I Am A Candy Tree 2-1, R5: Echos Of Cowboy 20-1, R9: Valiant Sass 2-1 +1 more · Trainer R2: Emerald Bay 2-1, R3: Bernina Express 15-1, R9: Valiant Sass 2-1

Drops from allowance to stakes nongraded. Dee Keener takes over the training from Michael Moss.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 75d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	WRD	1½f D	Alw n3l	7th/10 -4¼L	85	4.7-1	b L	Broke in;moved up
9/14	WRD	1.59091f D	sFutTrl5000	5th/8 -3L	82	14-1	b L	Chased;flattened
5/30	RP	1.59091f D	sEasyJetR G2	7th/10 -1L	82	26-1	b L	Quik start;faded

2JunctureRan 7thC. Smith · S. ValdiviaSmith · ValdiviaB81 96 75►↕12-1Fair 20-15%► Steady81 96 75 ↕B
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 68–96 · Last 3 figs 81 96 75
Jockey Cody Rodger Smith 31% career 9-for-89 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Samuel E Valdivia 29% career 11-for-59 on dirt this meet (19%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Make It Country 6-1, R4: Mr Booombastic 8-1, R6: Sinful Gem 15-1, R9: Painted Smoke Wagon 10-1 · Trainer R7: Another Rownd 20-1, R9: Painted Smoke Wagon 10-1, R11: Ss First Down Fancy 5-2
Owns the highest recent figure here at 96. Class relief: allowance last time, stakes nongraded today.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 81d back)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/5 WRD 1.36364f D Alw n2l 5th/9 -3L 81 14-1 b L Off pace;evenly
8/27 SRR 1f D MSW Won/7 by nk 96 0.9-1 b Up late for win
8/19 SRR 1.59091f D FutTrl10000 5th/9 -1½L 75 43-1 b Evenly paced

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/5	WRD	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	5th/9 -3L	81	14-1	b L	Off pace;evenly
8/27	SRR	1f D	MSW	Won/7 by nk	96	0.9-1	b	Up late for win
8/19	SRR	1.59091f D	FutTrl10000	5th/9 -1½L	75	43-1	b	Evenly paced

3D AmorRan 6thG. Gutierrez · K. WillisGutierrez · WillisB86 77 57▲▲+16↕@trip 7515-1Fair 30-13%▲▲ Big jump +1686 77 57 ↕@trip 75B

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +16 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 57–86 · Best fig at today's trip 75 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 86 77 57

Jockey Gonzalo Gutierrez 32% career 4-for-81 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Kasey Willis 35% career 3-for-18 on dirt this meet (17%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Vf Party Girl 12-1, R4: Vaquero 123 20-1, R9: Bad N Bourgeoisie 15-1, R11: Pyc Wicked Fun 15-1 · Trainer R9: Bad N Bourgeoisie 15-1

Has moved up each time out, 57 to 77 to 86. Beaten 4 lengths for 6th in a 10-horse allowance race at WRD.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 143 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	WRD	1½f D	Alw n3l	6th/10 -4L	86	31-1	b L	Crowded st;improved
9/14	WRD	1.59091f D	sFutTrl5000	7th/8 -4¼L	77	9.1-1	b L	Off slow;no rally
8/7	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	10th/10 -8¾L	57	13-1	b L	Outrun;

4Kiss Me Good BiRan 8thE. Escobedo · T. CrawfordEscobedo · Crawford?20-1Fair 50-12%—Debut?
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #8 · Tier ?
Jockey Edwin G Escobedo 36% career 7-for-53 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Tyler Cole Crawford 28% career 0-for-26 on dirt this meet (0%)
Also today · Jockey R2: Shannons Dynasty 12-1, R4: Valiant Geronimo 15-1, R5: Dulces Fire Z 2-1, R6: Henry Standing Bear 4-1 +3 more · Trainer R9: Ghirardelli Dark 5-1
Debut for this Jess Good Candy colt, whose dam is Kiss Me In The Snow. Worked 1F in :12.20 on Sep 5, 3rd fastest of 13 that morning.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 13d ago
Last three races
First start. By Jess Good Candy out of Kiss Me in the Snow (Kiss My Hocks)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/19 WRD 1f :12.80 handily 6/10 from gate
10/3 ALB 1f :13.00 handily 19/20 from gate
9/5 ALB 1f :12.20 handily 3/13 from gate

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/19	WRD	1f	:12.80	handily	6/10	from gate
10/3	ALB	1f	:13.00	handily	19/20	from gate
9/5	ALB	1f	:12.20	handily	3/13	from gate

5Eyesa Chick MagnetRan 2ndC. Esqueda · S. Charette-HillEsqueda · Charette-HillA88 86 88▲+3≡2-1Fair 3-240%▲ Up +3 · career best88 86 88 ≡A1

Card model 40% · Fair odds 3-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +3 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 81–88 · Last 3 figs 88 86 88

Jockey Christian Esqueda 29% career 3-for-40 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Stacy Charette-Hill 30% career 2-for-16 on dirt this meet (12%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Ms Chievious 2-1, R2: Azoomin Cowboy 6-1, R5: Nsm B24 8-1, R7: Counter 44 15-1 +2 more

Has won 4 of 7 going today's distance. 2nd last time, 2½ lengths back, in a field of 10.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 83d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	PRM	1.59091f D	ValJunFuG3 G3	2nd/10 -2½L	88	4.0-1	b LB	Outside; good finish
9/6	PRM	1.59091f D	FutTrl8000	Won/8	86	1.9-1	b LB	Took over; held clear
7/4	PRM	1.59091f D	PRMGoldFut264k	4th/10 by nk	88	16-1	b LB	Up close; yield late

6Crash For Kash★Ran 1stR. Garcia · J. OlmsteadGarcia · OlmsteadA95 86 89▲+6≡@trip 923-1Fair 7-222%▲ Up +6 · career best95 86 89 ≡@trip 92A★ Best at the trip 922

Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +6 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 86–95 · Best fig at today's trip 92 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 95 86 89

★ Best at the trip 92

Jockey Ramiro Haro Garcia 33% career 6-for-47 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Jason L Olmstead 35% career 3-for-59 on dirt this meet (5%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Southard Legend 10-1, R3: Tux Hard Shop 15-1, R4: Famous N Relentless 2-1, R5: Tymetogojoe 4-1 +5 more · Trainer R2: Holliewood 8-1, R2: The Cowboy Chick 3-1, R2: Southard Legend 10-1, R3: Political Spin 6-1 +25 more

Was running in allowance; today's stakes nongraded is an easier level on paper. Finished 2nd in a 10-horse allowance race at WRD, beaten 2 lengths.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 142 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	WRD	1½f D	Alw n3l	2nd/10 -2L	95	1.3-1	b L	Lunged st;closed fast
9/14	WRD	1.59091f D	sFutTrl5000	2nd/8 -2L	86	4.5-1	b L	Step slow;closed gap
8/8	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	4th/10 -¾L	89	2.9-1	b L	Bid; tired;

7Taco TuezdayRan 4thA. Alvidrez · J. OlmsteadAlvidrez · OlmsteadB70 82 84▼▼-94-1Fair 6-114%▼▼ Big drop -970 82 84B3

Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · Last 3 figs 70 82 84

Jockey Armando Alvidrez 28% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jason L Olmstead 35% career 3-for-59 on dirt this meet (5%)

Also today · Jockey R2: The Cowboy Chick 3-1, R3: Corona Downhill 4-1, R4: Uncle Redheads 4-1, R6: Aj Imperium 6-1 +2 more · Trainer R2: Holliewood 8-1, R2: The Cowboy Chick 3-1, R2: Southard Legend 10-1, R3: Political Spin 6-1 +25 more

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE★ FASTEST WORK

Jockey switch: Ramiro Haro Garcia last out, Armando Alvidrez today. Figures have slipped: 84, 82, 70 over its last three.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Bumped after start), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Aug 17 (1F in :11.60), 0 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	PRM	1.59091f D	ValJunFuG3 G3	8th/10 -4¼L	70	18-1	b LB	Bumped after start
9/6	PRM	1.59091f D	FutTrl8000	Won/8	82	2.9-1	b LB	Kicked clear
7/19	PRM	1.36364f D	MSW	Won/6	84	2.6-1	b LB	Kept clear

8Tell Em Im BusyRan 5thJ. Torres · H. RamirezTorres · RamirezC7120-1Fair 50-12%—71C
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 71
Jockey Jorge Torres 32% career 2-for-15 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Hernesto Ramirez 32% career 2-for-39 on dirt this meet (5%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Lupita Silos 8-1, R3: Bernina Express 15-1, R6: Shaynificent 20-1, R11: Chuys Girl 20-1 · Trainer R1: Rykar 6-1, R3: I Am A Candy Tree 2-1, R11: Redneck Fun 6-1
A big drop, maiden special weight to stakes nongraded, and worth asking why. Last out was 5th, 2¼ lengths behind the winner, in an 8-horse maiden special weight race at WRD.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 30d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/12 WRD 1.59091f D sMdSpWt 5th/8 -2¼L 71 26-1 b L Crowded st;mild rally

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	WRD	1.59091f D	sMdSpWt	5th/8 -2¼L	71	26-1	b L	Crowded st;mild rally

9Do Si Do Cowboy▼J. Soto · J. OlmsteadSoto · OlmsteadC75 80 67►@trip 6710-1<1%► Steady75 80 67@trip 67C▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (75 vs 80)

Card model <1% · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 67 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 80 67

▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (75 vs 80)

Jockey Jhaciel Soto 26% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jason L Olmstead 35% career 3-for-59 on dirt this meet (5%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Political Spin 6-1, R4: Relentless Wine 10-1, R5: Kissin Lane Lo 3-1, R6: Duty Callz 20-1 +3 more · Trainer R2: Holliewood 8-1, R2: The Cowboy Chick 3-1, R2: Southard Legend 10-1, R3: Political Spin 6-1 +25 more

Gets a new rider, Jhaciel Soto replacing Ramiro Haro Garcia. Winless in 6 starts at this distance.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 28d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	WRD	1.59091f D	sMdSpWt	2nd/8 -1L	75	4.1-1	b L	Chased;won nod 2nd
8/8	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	5th/8 -3½L	80	89-1	b L	No final kick;
6/27	ALB	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	8th/9 -3½L	67	5.5-1	b L	Stumbled; off slowly

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #5 Eyesa Chick Magnet, finished 2nd.

1st6Crash For KashWin$5.20Place$3.00Show$2.20Our #2

2nd5Eyesa Chick MagnetWin—Place$3.00Show$2.10Our #1

3rd1Dos GrandioseWin—Place—Show$2.40Our #4

4th7Taco TuezdayOur #3

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

WRD · RACE 10

OFFICIAL

Trial

Field

9 runners

Purse

$5,000

Post

4:45 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#5 · 40%

Stakes, for colts and geldings, 2-year-olds.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 400 Yards: 19.42

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #5 Eyesa Chick Magnet (a tactical type, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 88 · 86 · 88. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #6 Crash For Kash at 3-1. Use #7 Taco Tuezday in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · 2ND

Top pick Eyesa Chick Magnet ran 2nd · Crash For Kash won (our #2)

What worked

✓ Top pick in the money (2nd)
✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #2)
✓ Our top 3 finished 2nd, 1st, 4th

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#5 EYESA CHICK MAGNET	2nd
#2	#6 CRASH FOR KASH	1st
#3	#7 TACO TUEZDAY	4th
#4	#1 DOS GRANDIOSE	3rd
#5	#2 JUNCTURE	7th

Actual finish

1st	#6 Crash for Kash	our #2
2nd	#5 Eyesa Chick Magnet	our #1
3rd	#1 Dos Grandiose	our #4
4th	#7 Taco Tuezday	our #3
5th	#8 Tell Em Im Busy	our #7

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #5 EYESA CHICK MAGNET (2-1) — our number agrees.
#5 EYESA CHICK MAGNET — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 30.8%, they've got 26.6%.
#6 CRASH FOR KASH — our #2 number, about right at the windows (22.6% to their 20.0%).
#7 TACO TUEZDAY — our #3 number, about right at the windows (16.9% to their 16.0%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#5 EYESA CHICK MAGNET — we make it 30.8%, the morning line works out to 26.6%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Dos Grandiose, #2 Juncture, #3 D Amor.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Dos Grandiose2Juncture3D Amor4Kiss Me Good Bi5Eyesa Chick Magnet6Crash For Kash7Taco Tuezday8Tell Em Im Busy9Do Si Do Cowboy

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Eyesa Chick Magnet

Taco Tuezday

Dos Grandiose

Juncture

D Amor

Crash For Kash

Tell Em Im Busy

Do Si Do Cowboy

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