Pick sheet

Race 52:40 PM Trial

1.8F · Dirt · 8 entered. Our model's top pick, Dulces Fire Z, is 43% to win (morning line implies 27%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #8 Dulces Fire Z ML 2-1 Fair 7-5 Model #1 Top last-race fig ► Steady

Jockey E. Escobedo · Trainer J. Davis · Dist 6: 2-2-1 · 36 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	SWF	1.59091f D	SWF Fut300k	2nd/8 -1½L	98	2.2-1	b LB	2nd best
9/11	SWF	1.59091f D	FutTrl10000	Won/8	108	0.8-1	b LB	Dueled;game;prevailed
8/9	WYO	1.59091f D	WyoGovCpFu270k	5th/10 -½L	89	7.9-1	b LB	Bump;in-range;outkickd

Case: Last out 2nd in the SWF Fut300k at SWF. Last Brisnet figures 98-108-89. 2-for-6 at the distance. J. Davis / E. Escobedo.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1.59091f). Never raced at Will Rogers Downs.

Contender #6 Kissin Lane Lo ML 3-1 Fair 5-1 Model #2 ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best

Jockey J. Soto · Trainer J. Olmstead · KEE 1: 1-0-0 · Dist 6: 1-2-1 · best fig at 1.81818f dirt 75 · 21 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	WRD	1.36364f D	MSW	Won/10	95	0.5-1	b L	Showed speed;held safe
8/7	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	2nd/10 -½L	89	8.0-1	b L	Winner too tuff;
6/27	ALB	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	5th/10 by hd	75	10-1	b L	Broke sharply;led;hung

Case: Last out won in the MdSpWt at WRD. Last Brisnet figures 95-89-75. Best at today's distance 75. 1-for-6 at the distance. 1-for-1 at Will Rogers Downs. J. Olmstead / J. Soto.

Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Use #4 Tymetogojoe ML 4-1 Fair 8-1 Model #3 ▲ Up +3 Last out 6th/9 -2¾L in the sFutTrl5000 at WRD. Last Brisnet figures 85-89-79. Best at today's distance 79. 3-for-6 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Will Rogers Downs. J. Olmstead / R. Garcia. Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey R. Garcia · Trainer J. Olmstead · KEE 1: 0-0-0 · Dist 6: 3-1-0 · best fig at 1.81818f dirt 79 · 48 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/14	WRD	1.59091f D	sFutTrl5000	6th/9 -2¾L	85	2.1-1	b L	Tough start;not enough
8/7	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	2nd/10 by hd	89	5.5-1	b L	Dueled; just missed;
6/26	ALB	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	Won/9	79	5.1-1	b L	Dueled; proved best

Longshot #3 Arbuckles ML 15-1 Fair 20-1 Model #7 ▼▼ Big drop -13

Jockey J. Pulido · Trainer O. Hernandez · Dist 4: 0-2-1 · 14 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	EUR	1½f D	MSW	2nd/8	—	5.5-1	b B	Second best
9/11	SWF	1.59091f D	FutTrl10000	6th/6 -2¼L	66	4.4-1	b LB	Pinched st;trailed
7/26	WYO	1.36364f D	MSW	3rd/10 -½L	83	1.2-1	b LB	Game effort

Case: Last out 2nd in the MdSpWt at EUR. Last Brisnet figures 66-83. 0-for-4 at the distance. O. Hernandez / J. Pulido.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1.59091f). Never raced at Will Rogers Downs.

Narrowing the field: A #4, #6, #8 · B #1, #5, #7 · C #2, #3

R5 WRD · Trial

2:40 PM ET · 400 Yards Dirt · $5,000 · 8 runners2:40 PM · 1.8f Dirt · 8 runners

Official $5,000 · Trial

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Aj Wine WagonRan 1stF. Ramirez Jr. · J. OlmsteadRamirez Jr. · OlmsteadB83 86 73▲+7@trip 736-1Fair 12-17%▲ Up +783 86 73@trip 73B

Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +7 · Best fig at today's trip 73 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 83 86 73

Jockey Francisco Raul Jr Ramirez 33% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jason L Olmstead 35% career 3-for-59 on dirt this meet (5%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Holliewood 8-1, R4: Atsi Monday 3-1, R6: Quit Kissin My Hocks 15-1, R7: Aj Time To Fly 15-1 +1 more · Trainer R2: Holliewood 8-1, R2: The Cowboy Chick 3-1, R2: Southard Legend 10-1, R3: Political Spin 6-1 +25 more

★ FASTEST WORK

Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power. Last out was 4th, 2¾ lengths behind the winner, in an 8-horse stakes race at WRD.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1F on Jul 19; 0 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/14	WRD	1.59091f D	sFutTrl5000	4th/8 -2¾L	83	2.2-1	b L	Flattened out;mssd 3rd
8/7	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	3rd/9 -1L	86	1.8-1	b L	Fought gamely;
6/26	ALB	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	Won/10	73	22-1	b L	Head turned start

2Nsm B24Ran 4thC. Esqueda · C. HuntEsqueda · HuntC79 76 80►≡8-1Fair 15-16%► Steady79 76 80 ≡C

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 75–80 · Last 3 figs 79 76 80

Jockey Christian Esqueda 29% career 3-for-40 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Charles R Hunt 22% career

Also today · Jockey R1: Ms Chievious 2-1, R2: Azoomin Cowboy 6-1, R7: Counter 44 15-1, R8: Jump Jump Jerry 6-1 +2 more · Trainer R7: Counter 44 15-1

Runs for $5,000 today after a $30,000 race last time. Winless in 5 starts at this distance.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 6d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	PRM	1.59091f D	ValyJunJuv30k	5th/10 by nk	79	30-1	b LB	Bid; weakened
9/6	PRM	1.59091f D	FutTrl8000	4th/9 -1¾L	76	37-1	b LB	Brk out;bmpd;mildly
7/19	PRM	1.36364f D	MSW	3rd/6 -2¼L	80	21-1	b LB	Up for show

3ArbucklesLSRan 2ndJ. Pulido · O. HernandezPulido · HernandezC66 83 75▼▼-1315-1Fair 20-15%▼▼ Big drop -1366 83 75CLS
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -13 · Last 3 figs 66 83 75
LS
Longshot read: 15-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 5% against a line of 5%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Juan Pulido 44% career ★ 13-for-38 on dirt this meet (34%), #1 of 33 · Trainer Oswaldo Hernandez 31% career ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R3: Dr Cocktail Hour 3-1, R7: Dressed N Blackk 2-1
A big drop, maiden special weight to stakes nongraded, and worth asking why. 0 for 4 at today's distance.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 113d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/18 EUR 1½f D MSW 2nd/8 — 5.5-1 b B Second best
9/11 SWF 1.59091f D FutTrl10000 6th/6 -2¼L 66 4.4-1 b LB Pinched st;trailed
7/26 WYO 1.36364f D MSW 3rd/10 -½L 83 1.2-1 b LB Game effort

4TymetogojoeRan 3rdR. Garcia · J. OlmsteadGarcia · OlmsteadA85 89 79▲+3@trip 794-1Fair 8-111%▲ Up +385 89 79@trip 79A3

Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +3 · Best fig at today's trip 79 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 89 79

Jockey Ramiro Haro Garcia 33% career 6-for-47 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Jason L Olmstead 35% career 3-for-59 on dirt this meet (5%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Southard Legend 10-1, R3: Tux Hard Shop 15-1, R4: Famous N Relentless 2-1, R6: Apollitikal Dreamer 2-1 +5 more · Trainer R2: Holliewood 8-1, R2: The Cowboy Chick 3-1, R2: Southard Legend 10-1, R3: Political Spin 6-1 +25 more

Has won 3 of 6 going today's distance. Beaten 2¾ lengths for 6th in a 9-horse stakes race at WRD.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS SHARP 1f in :11.80 on Feb 21 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/14	WRD	1.59091f D	sFutTrl5000	6th/9 -2¾L	85	2.1-1	b L	Tough start;not enough
8/7	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	2nd/10 by hd	89	5.5-1	b L	Dueled; just missed;
6/26	ALB	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	Won/9	79	5.1-1	b L	Dueled; proved best

5Echos of CowboyRan 6thR. Cruz · J. RuizCruz · RuizB86 72 86▲+420-1Fair 30-13%▲ Up +486 72 86B

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +4 · Last 3 figs 86 72 86

Jockey Roman Cruz 33% career ★ 25-for-111 on dirt this meet (23%), #3 of 33 · Trainer Jesus Ruben Ruiz 30% career 7-for-84 on dirt this meet (8%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Emerald Bay 2-1, R3: I Am A Candy Tree 2-1, R9: Valiant Sass 2-1, R10: Dos Grandiose 6-1 +1 more

Drops from allowance to stakes nongraded. 4th last time, 2½ lengths back, in a field of 9.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 77d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/5	WRD	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	4th/9 -2½L	86	7.2-1	b L	Closed well;mssd 3rd
9/22	WRD	1.59091f D	Alw n2l	9th/10 -3¼L	72	7.3-1	b L	Crowded st;no factor
7/18	FMT	1.59091f D	Cherokee S25k	4th/9 -1¾L	86	17-1	b L	In tight early;gaining

6Kissin Lane LoRan 8thJ. Soto · J. OlmsteadSoto · OlmsteadA95 89 75▲▲+11@trip 753-1Fair 5-117%▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best95 89 75@trip 75A2

Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 75 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 95 89 75

Jockey Jhaciel Soto 26% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jason L Olmstead 35% career 3-for-59 on dirt this meet (5%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Political Spin 6-1, R4: Relentless Wine 10-1, R6: Duty Callz 20-1, R7: Urban Cowboy 123 4-1 +3 more · Trainer R2: Holliewood 8-1, R2: The Cowboy Chick 3-1, R2: Southard Legend 10-1, R3: Political Spin 6-1 +25 more

WON LAST

Has moved up each time out, 75 to 89 to 95. Won last out in a 10-horse maiden special weight race at WRD.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 28d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	WRD	1.36364f D	MSW	Won/10	95	0.5-1	b L	Showed speed;held safe
8/7	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	2nd/10 -½L	89	8.0-1	b L	Winner too tuff;
6/27	ALB	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	5th/10 by hd	75	10-1	b L	Broke sharply;led;hung

7StriveRan 7thB. Candanosa · F. ManriquezCandanosa · ManriquezB79 81 80►≡10-1Fair 12-17%► Steady79 81 80 ≡B

Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 79–81 · Last 3 figs 79 81 80

Jockey Bryan Candanosa 36% career 4-for-21 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Fernando Ivan Manriquez 28% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R6: Hardtohock 3-1, R8: Senor Quintero Lo 4-1, R11: Naidu 7-2 · Trainer R7: Ts Cyber Flash 3-1

3rd of 10 at 1F on Oct 19, in :11.40. Purse drops from $345,110 to $5,000 against its last start.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 13d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	PRM	1.59091f D	ValJunFuG3 G3	5th/10 -3¼L	79	21-1	b LB	Needed more
9/6	PRM	1.59091f D	FutTrl8000	Won/9	81	1.1-1	b LB	Speed; kept clear
7/4	PRM	1.59091f D	PRMGoldFut264k	8th/10 -3¼L	80	24-1	b LB	Never threatened

8Dulces Fire ZRan 5thE. Escobedo · J. DavisEscobedo · DavisA98 108 89►2-1Fair 7-543%► Steady98 108 89A1

Card model 43% · Fair odds 7-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 98 108 89

Jockey Edwin G Escobedo 36% career 7-for-53 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Joe M Davis 33% career 5-for-33 on dirt this meet (15%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Shannons Dynasty 12-1, R4: Valiant Geronimo 15-1, R6: Henry Standing Bear 4-1, R7: Ts Cyber Flash 3-1 +3 more · Trainer R6: Henry Standing Bear 4-1, R8: Cyber Hostage 2-1

Tops the field on speed figures, a 108 against 95 for the next best. 2nd last time, 1½ lengths back, in a field of 8.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 130 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	SWF	1.59091f D	SWF Fut300k	2nd/8 -1½L	98	2.2-1	b LB	2nd best
9/11	SWF	1.59091f D	FutTrl10000	Won/8	108	0.8-1	b LB	Dueled;game;prevailed
8/9	WYO	1.59091f D	WyoGovCpFu270k	5th/10 -½L	89	7.9-1	b LB	Bump;in-range;outkickd

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #8 Dulces Fire Z, finished 5th.

1st1Aj Wine WagonWin$26.00Place$10.80Show$6.60Our #5

2nd3ArbucklesWin—Place$6.20Show$5.60Our #7

3rd4TymetogojoeWin—Place—Show$3.80Our #3

4th2Nsm B24Our #6

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

WRD · RACE 5

OFFICIAL

Trial

Field

8 runners

Purse

$5,000

Post

2:40 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#8 · 43%

Stakes, for colts and geldings, 2-year-olds.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 400 Yards: 19.42

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #8 Dulces Fire Z (a tactical type, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 98 · 108 · 89. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #6 Kissin Lane Lo at 3-1. Use #4 Tymetogojoe in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · OUT

Aj Wine Wagon won (our #5) · top pick Dulces Fire Z ran 5th

What didn't

✗ Top pick off the board (5th)
✗ Winner was outside our top 3 (our #5)
✗ Our top 3 finished 5th, 8th, 3rd

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#8 DULCES FIRE Z	5th
#2	#6 KISSIN LANE LO	8th
#3	#4 TYMETOGOJOE	3rd
#4	#7 STRIVE	7th
#5	#1 AJ WINE WAGON	1st

Actual finish

1st	#1 Aj Wine Wagon	our #5
2nd	#3 Arbuckles	our #7
3rd	#4 Tymetogojoe	our #3
4th	#2 Nsm B24	our #6
5th	#8 Dulces Fire Z	our #1

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #8 DULCES FIRE Z (2-1) — our number agrees.
#8 DULCES FIRE Z — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (30.4% to their 26.9%).
#6 KISSIN LANE LO — our #2 number, about right at the windows (21.2% to their 20.2%).
#4 TYMETOGOJOE — our #3 number, about right at the windows (14.5% to their 16.2%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Aj Wine Wagon, #2 Nsm B24, #3 Arbuckles.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Aj Wine Wagon2Nsm B243Arbuckles4Tymetogojoe5Echos Of Cowboy6Kissin Lane Lo7Strive8Dulces Fire Z

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Dulces Fire Z

Nsm B24

Strive

Aj Wine Wagon

Arbuckles

Tymetogojoe

Echos Of Cowboy

Kissin Lane Lo

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Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

$2 EXACTA / (.50) TRIFECTA / (.10) SUPERFECTA / $2 DAILY DOUBLE

(.50) PICK 3 (RACES 5-6-7)

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