Pick sheet

Race 31:50 PM Trial

1.6F · Dirt · 8 entered. Our model's top pick, I Am a Candy Tree, is 27% to win (morning line implies 26%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #5 I Am a Candy Tree ML 2-1 Fair 5-2 Model #1 ▼▼ Big drop -11 ▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (82 vs 96)

Jockey R. Cruz · Trainer H. Ramirez · KEE 1: 0-0-1 · Dist 11: 1-2-1 · best fig at 1.59091f dirt 96 · 13 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/19	WRD	1.59091f D	Alw n2l	3rd/8 -1½L	82	2.7-1	b L	Chased;held for 3rd
7/18	FMT	1.59091f D	SpeedhrsDb25k	4th/10 -¾L	96	18-1	b L	Bobbled st;outkicked
7/2	FMT	1.59091f D	DbyTrl 5000	2nd/8 -1L	92	14-1	b L	No match;held 2nd

Case: Last out 3rd in the Alw20140n2l at WRD. Last Brisnet figures 82-96-92. Best at today's distance 96. 1-for-11 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Will Rogers Downs. H. Ramirez / R. Cruz.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #2 Dr Cocktail Hour ML 3-1 Fair 3-1 Model #2 Top last-race fig ▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best

Jockey J. Pulido · Trainer J. Vane · KEE 1: 1-0-0 · Dist 8: 2-1-0 · best fig at 1.59091f dirt 86 · 35 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	WRD	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	Won/9	96	1.0-1	b L	Took command;held sway
7/6	IND	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	5th/9 -1L	91	5.2-1	b L	Good break; no menace
5/30	IND	1.81818f D	DbyTrl 14000	9th/10 -2¼L	76	1.5-1	b L	Stumbled start

Case: Last out won in the Alw20390n2l at WRD. Last Brisnet figures 96-91-76. Best at today's distance 86. 2-for-8 at the distance. 1-for-1 at Will Rogers Downs. J. Vane / J. Pulido.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Use #6 Corona Downhill ML 4-1 Fair 6-1 Model #3 ▼▼ Big drop -14 Last out 3rd in the Clm25000n2l at WRD. Last Brisnet figures 76-95-91. Best at today's distance 77. 1-for-13 at the distance. 0-for-2 at Will Rogers Downs. J. Olmstead / A. Alvidrez. Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey A. Alvidrez · Trainer J. Olmstead · KEE 2: 0-0-2 · Dist 13: 1-2-5 · best fig at 1.59091f dirt 77 · 21 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	WRD	1.59091f D	Clm 25k n2l	3rd/7 -½L	76	3.8-1	b L	Led;outkicked late
8/27	CBY	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	3rd/7 -2¼L	95	0.5-1	b L	Late gain
8/1	PRM	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	4th/9 -1½L	91	4.4-1	b LB	Yielded late

Longshot #8 Tux Hard Shop ML 15-1 Fair 15-1 Model #6 ▲ Up +7

Jockey R. Garcia · Trainer J. Olmstead · KEE 3: 1-0-1 · Dist 17: 3-1-2 · best fig at 1.59091f dirt 88 · 20 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	WRD	1.59091f D	sAlw26200nc	3rd/6 -1¾L	83	11-1	b L	Lugged in;closed gap
9/7	PRM	1.81818f D	DbyTrl 8000	6th/9 -1½L	74	6.1-1	b LB	No late bid
8/23	PRM	1.59091f D	Alw b	4th/7 -2½L	83	29-1	b LB	Solid bump mid-race

Case: Last out 3rd in the sAlw26200nc at WRD. Last Brisnet figures 83-74-83. Best at today's distance 88. 3-for-17 at the distance. 1-for-3 at Will Rogers Downs. J. Olmstead / R. Garcia.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

★ Distance horse: #1 Political Spin (6-1) has the best figure in the field at 1.59091f dirt: 99 from 6 tries, record at the distance 14: 1-3-1. Not one of our picks.

Narrowing the field: A #2, #3, #5 · B #1, #6, #8 · C #4, #7

Angles: #4 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (77 vs 84) · #5 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (82 vs 96)

R3 WRD · Trial

1:50 PM ET · 350 Yards Dirt · $5,000 · 8 runners1:50 PM · 1.6f Dirt · 8 runners

Official $5,000 · Trial

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #1 Political Spin (6-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 99 from 6 tries. Not in our top three.

1Political Spin★Ran 3rdJ. Soto · J. OlmsteadSoto · OlmsteadB79 95 80▼▼-12↕@trip 996-1Fair 10-19%▼▼ Big drop -1279 95 80 ↕@trip 99B★ Best at the trip 99

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -12 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 79–99 · Best fig at today's trip 99 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 95 80

★ Best at the trip 99

Jockey Jhaciel Soto 26% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jason L Olmstead 35% career 3-for-59 on dirt this meet (5%)

Also today · Jockey R4: Relentless Wine 10-1, R5: Kissin Lane Lo 3-1, R6: Duty Callz 20-1, R7: Urban Cowboy 123 4-1 +3 more · Trainer R2: Holliewood 8-1, R2: The Cowboy Chick 3-1, R2: Southard Legend 10-1, this race: Corona Downhill 4-1 +25 more

2/4 board here

A big drop, allowance to stakes nongraded, and worth asking why. Tops the field on speed figures, a 99 against 96 for the next best.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 237d back)

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 4 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/19	WRD	1.59091f D	Alw n2l	6th/8 -2½L	79	5.7-1	b L	Close early;faded
8/22	ALB	1.59091f D	MSW	Won/10	95	6.1-1	b L	Broke sharp; driving
7/11	ALB	1.81818f D	MSW	4th/10 -2L	80	3.6-1	b L	Bid; improved position

2Dr Cocktail HourRan 2ndJ. Pulido · J. VanePulido · VaneA96 91 76▲▲+13@trip 863-1Fair 3-126%▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best96 91 76@trip 86A2

Card model 26% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 86 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 96 91 76

Jockey Juan Pulido 44% career ★ 13-for-38 on dirt this meet (34%), #1 of 33 · Trainer Jed H Vane 34% career ★ 11-for-26 on dirt this meet (42%), #2 of 44 ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R5: Arbuckles 15-1, R7: Dressed N Blackk 2-1 · Trainer R7: Dressed N Blackk 2-1

★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

Comes in off a victory in a 9-horse allowance race at WRD. Has moved up each time out, 76 to 91 to 96.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1F on Sep 16; 0 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	WRD	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	Won/9	96	1.0-1	b L	Took command;held sway
7/6	IND	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	5th/9 -1L	91	5.2-1	b L	Good break; no menace
5/30	IND	1.81818f D	DbyTrl 14000	9th/10 -2¼L	76	1.5-1	b L	Stumbled start

3MaverykkRan 1stM. Delgado · J. JoinerDelgado · JoinerA95 46 88▲▲+19↕@trip 975-1Fair 7-113%▲▲ Big jump +1995 46 88 ↕@trip 97A

Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +19 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 46–95 · Best fig at today's trip 97 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 95 46 88

Jockey Mario Delgado 32% career 12-for-84 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Justin W Joiner 32% career 4-for-22 on dirt this meet (18%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Vf Zip N Run 10-1, R6: Mannfredi 8-1, R7: Another Rownd 20-1, R8: Bv Wanta B A Cowboy 15-1 +1 more · Trainer R6: Mannfredi 8-1, R8: Bv Wanta B A Cowboy 15-1

WON LAST

Won last out in a 7-horse allowance race at WRD. Class relief: allowance last time, stakes nongraded today.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 69 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/21	WRD	1.59091f D	Alw n3l	Won/7 by hd	95	1.4-1	b L	Step slow;duel;won nod
5/30	RP	1.81818f D	HrtgPlDbG2 G2	8th/9 -11L	46	25-1	b L	Head high;lackd a bid
5/9	RP	1.81818f D	DbyTrl 10000	4th/8	88	2.6-1	b L	4way duel;fotod out

4Bernina Express▼Ran 8thJ. Torres · D. KeenerTorres · KeenerC77 84 88▼▼-10@trip 8815-1Fair 50-12%▼▼ Big drop -1077 84 88@trip 88C▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (77 vs 84)

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · Best fig at today's trip 88 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 84 88

▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (77 vs 84)

Jockey Jorge Torres 32% career 2-for-15 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Dee Keener 35% career ★ 7-for-34 on dirt this meet (21%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Lupita Silos 8-1, R6: Shaynificent 20-1, R10: Tell Em Im Busy 20-1, R11: Chuys Girl 20-1 · Trainer R2: Emerald Bay 2-1, R9: Valiant Sass 2-1, R10: Dos Grandiose 6-1

Figures have slipped: 88, 84, 77 over its last three. Gets a new rider, Jorge Torres replacing Roman Cruz.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 37d ago)

RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/5	WRD	2f D	DbyTrl 5000	9th/9 -5½L	77	14-1	b L	Crowded;ducked in st
7/18	FMT	1.59091f D	SpeedhrsDb25k	8th/10 -3¼L	84	39-1	b L	Lunged st;no threat
7/2	FMT	1.59091f D	DbyTrl 5000	5th/8 -1L	88	7.7-1	b L	Bit tight late;no kick

5I Am a Candy Tree▼Ran 5thR. Cruz · H. RamirezCruz · RamirezA82 96 92▼▼-11@trip 962-1Fair 5-227%▼▼ Big drop -1182 96 92@trip 96A▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (82 vs 96)1

Card model 27% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -11 · Best fig at today's trip 96 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 96 92

▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (82 vs 96)

Jockey Roman Cruz 33% career ★ 25-for-111 on dirt this meet (23%), #3 of 33 · Trainer Hernesto Ramirez 32% career 2-for-39 on dirt this meet (5%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Emerald Bay 2-1, R5: Echos Of Cowboy 20-1, R9: Valiant Sass 2-1, R10: Dos Grandiose 6-1 +1 more · Trainer R1: Rykar 6-1, R10: Tell Em Im Busy 20-1, R11: Redneck Fun 6-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Drops from allowance to stakes nongraded. Posted the fastest 1F work of the morning on Sep 6, in :12.20.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 6 (1F in :12.20), 1 work in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/19	WRD	1.59091f D	Alw n2l	3rd/8 -1½L	82	2.7-1	b L	Chased;held for 3rd
7/18	FMT	1.59091f D	SpeedhrsDb25k	4th/10 -¾L	96	18-1	b L	Bobbled st;outkicked
7/2	FMT	1.59091f D	DbyTrl 5000	2nd/8 -1L	92	14-1	b L	No match;held 2nd

6Corona DownhillRan 4thA. Alvidrez · J. OlmsteadAlvidrez · OlmsteadB76 95 91▼▼-14@trip 774-1Fair 6-114%▼▼ Big drop -1476 95 91@trip 77B3

Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -14 · Best fig at today's trip 77 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 95 91

Jockey Armando Alvidrez 28% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jason L Olmstead 35% career 3-for-59 on dirt this meet (5%)

Also today · Jockey R2: The Cowboy Chick 3-1, R4: Uncle Redheads 4-1, R6: Aj Imperium 6-1, R8: Lonestar Jess 15-1 +2 more · Trainer R2: Holliewood 8-1, R2: The Cowboy Chick 3-1, R2: Southard Legend 10-1, this race: Political Spin 6-1 +25 more

Was running in $25,000 claiming; today's stakes nongraded is an easier level on paper. Beaten ½ length for 3rd in a 7-horse $25,000 claiming race at WRD.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 237d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	WRD	1.59091f D	Clm 25k n2l	3rd/7 -½L	76	3.8-1	b L	Led;outkicked late
8/27	CBY	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	3rd/7 -2¼L	95	0.5-1	b L	Late gain
8/1	PRM	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	4th/9 -1½L	91	4.4-1	b LB	Yielded late

7Paint That DynastyRan 7thC. Benn · J. GomezBenn · GomezC79 80 68►@trip 9015-1Fair 30-13%► Steady79 80 68@trip 90C

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 90 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 80 68

Jockey Cordarelton J Benn 35% career 12-for-90 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Juan J Gomez 28% career 1-for-13 on dirt this meet (8%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Lil Kool Wink 15-1, R8: Besame El Polvo 20-1, R9: Cara Cortada 727 20-1, R11: Striking Storm 4-1

Shortens up to 350 yards after going 870 yards. Led at the first call last time.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 35d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/5	WRD	3.95455f D	Alw n3l	2nd/6	79	1.7-1	b	No match;held for 2nd
10/30	LS	2f D	Alw n1x	4th/7 -¾L	80	3.2-1	b	Bmp st;lackd kick
9/8	WRD	1.59091f D	sFutTrl5000	5th/9 -4¼L	68	5.4-1	b L	Frcts; brk very slowly

8Tux Hard ShopLSRan 6thR. Garcia · J. OlmsteadGarcia · OlmsteadB83 74 83▲+7@trip 8815-1Fair 15-16%▲ Up +783 74 83@trip 88BLS

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +7 · Best fig at today's trip 88 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 83 74 83

Longshot read: 15-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 6% against a line of 5%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Ramiro Haro Garcia 33% career 6-for-47 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Jason L Olmstead 35% career 3-for-59 on dirt this meet (5%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Southard Legend 10-1, R4: Famous N Relentless 2-1, R5: Tymetogojoe 4-1, R6: Apollitikal Dreamer 2-1 +5 more · Trainer R2: Holliewood 8-1, R2: The Cowboy Chick 3-1, R2: Southard Legend 10-1, this race: Political Spin 6-1 +25 more

★ FASTEST WORK2/3 board here

Fastest 1F work of its morning on Mar 19 (:11.60), a sign it is training forwardly. Last out was 3rd, 1¾ lengths behind the winner, in a 6-horse allowance race at WRD.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

TROUBLED TRIP Lugged in; closed gap last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP 1f in :11.60 on Mar 19 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	WRD	1.59091f D	sAlw26200nc	3rd/6 -1¾L	83	11-1	b L	Lugged in;closed gap
9/7	PRM	1.81818f D	DbyTrl 8000	6th/9 -1½L	74	6.1-1	b LB	No late bid
8/23	PRM	1.59091f D	Alw b	4th/7 -2½L	83	29-1	b LB	Solid bump mid-race

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #5 I Am A Candy Tree, finished 5th.

1st3MaverykkWin$4.80Place$2.40Show$2.10Our #4

2nd2Dr Cocktail HourWin—Place$2.40Show$2.10Our #2

3rd1Political SpinWin—Place—Show$4.40Our #5

4th6Corona DownhillOur #3

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

WRD · RACE 3

OFFICIAL

Trial

Field

8 runners

Purse

$5,000

Post

1:50 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#5 · 27%

Stakes, for 3-year-olds, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 350 Yards: 16.98

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #5 I Am A Candy Tree (a tactical type, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 82 · 96 · 92. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #2 Dr Cocktail Hour at 3-1. Use #6 Corona Downhill in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · OUT

Maverykk won (our #4) · top pick I Am A Candy Tree ran 5th

What didn't

✗ Top pick off the board (5th)
✗ Winner was outside our top 3 (our #4)
✗ Our top 3 finished 5th, 2nd, 4th

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#5 I AM A CANDY TREE	5th
#2	#2 DR COCKTAIL HOUR	2nd
#3	#6 CORONA DOWNHILL	4th
#4	#3 MAVERYKK	1st
#5	#1 POLITICAL SPIN	3rd

Actual finish

1st	#3 Maverykk	our #4
2nd	#2 Dr Cocktail Hour	our #2
3rd	#1 Political Spin	our #5
4th	#6 Corona Downhill	our #3
5th	#5 I Am a Candy Tree	our #1

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #5 I AM A CANDY TREE (2-1) — our number agrees.
#5 I AM A CANDY TREE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (26.8% to their 26.0%).
#2 DR COCKTAIL HOUR — our #2 number, about right at the windows (21.7% to their 19.5%).
#6 CORONA DOWNHILL — our #3 number, about right at the windows (14.9% to their 15.6%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Political Spin, #2 Dr Cocktail Hour, #3 Maverykk.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Political Spin2Dr Cocktail Hour3Maverykk4Bernina Express5I Am A Candy Tree6Corona Downhill7Paint That Dynasty8Tux Hard Shop

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Political Spin

Dr Cocktail Hour

Maverykk

Bernina Express

I Am A Candy Tree

Corona Downhill

Paint That Dynasty

Tux Hard Shop

Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

$2 EXACTA / (.50) TRIFECTA / (.10) SUPERFECTA / $2 DAILY DOUBLE

(.50) PICK 3 (RACES 3-4-5)

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