Pick sheet

Race 42:15 PM TrialEarly Pick 4 starts

1.6F · Dirt · 8 entered. Our model's top pick, Famous N Relentless, is 37% to win (morning line implies 28%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #5 Famous N Relentless ML 2-1 Fair 9-5 Model #1 Top last-race fig ▲ Up +7

Jockey R. Garcia · Trainer J. Olmstead · KEE 5: 2-1-0 · Dist 17: 8-3-2 · best fig at 1.59091f dirt 91 · 35 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	WRD	1.81818f D	Alw nc	Won/7	93	0.9-1	b L	Led;dug in late;held
8/9	ALB	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	5th/7 -4L	84	1.7-1	b L	Faded;
7/11	ALB	2f D	RainbDbyG1 G1	9th/10 -2¼L	80	16-1	b L	Bolted inside mid str

Case: Last out won in the Alw25860nc at WRD. Last Brisnet figures 93-84-80. Best at today's distance 91. 8-for-17 at the distance. 2-for-5 at Will Rogers Downs. J. Olmstead / R. Garcia.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #4 Atsi Monday ML 3-1 Fair 7-2 Model #2 ▼ Down -3

Jockey F. Ramirez Jr. · Trainer J. Olmstead · KEE 1: 0-0-0 · Dist 14: 5-1-3 · best fig at 1.59091f dirt 95 · 37 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	PRM	1.81818f D	AltoonaDby145k	6th/10 by nk	85	9.5-1	b LB	No final bid
9/7	PRM	1.81818f D	DbyTrl 8000	Won/8	85	3.2-1	b LB	Going away
7/6	PRM	1.59091f D	PRMGoldDby164k	6th/10 -2L	83	2.2-1	b LB	Needed more

Case: Last out 6th/10 by nk in the AltoonaDby145k at PRM. Last Brisnet figures 85-85-83. Best at today's distance 95. 5-for-14 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Will Rogers Downs. J. Olmstead / F. Ramirez Jr..

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Use #7 Uncle Redheads ML 4-1 Fair 9-2 Model #3 ▼ Down -4 ≡ Steady 87–95 Last out 4th/10 by nk in the AltoonaDby145k at PRM. Last Brisnet figures 88-87-95. Best at today's distance 91. 9-for-18 at the distance. 0-for-2 at Will Rogers Downs. J. Olmstead / A. Alvidrez. Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Jockey A. Alvidrez · Trainer J. Olmstead · KEE 2: 0-1-0 · Dist 18: 9-4-2 · best fig at 1.59091f dirt 91 · 37 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	PRM	1.81818f D	AltoonaDby145k	4th/10 by nk	88	1.9-1	b LB	Bid; not enough
9/7	PRM	1.81818f D	DbyTrl 8000	Won/9 by ½	87	2.6-1	b LB	Cleared late;held on
8/20	CBY	1.81818f D	Cby Dby38k	3rd/9	95	0.7-1	b L	Led inside;caught late

★ Distance horse: #3 Mr Booombastic (8-1) has the best figure in the field at 1.59091f dirt: 98 from 7 tries, record at the distance 12: 4-1-2. Not one of our picks.

Narrowing the field: A #5, #6, #7 · B #3, #4, #8 · C #1, #2

Angles: #3 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (80 vs 97)

R4 WRD · Trial

2:15 PM ET · 350 Yards Dirt · $5,000 · 8 runners2:15 PM · 1.6f Dirt · 8 runners

Official $5,000 · Trial

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #3 Mr Booombastic (8-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 98 from 7 tries. Not in our top three.

1Pyc DynastyRan 8thR. Vega · M. Chavez-GutierrezVega · Chavez-GutierrezC84 73 71▲▲+13@trip 7712-1Fair 30-14%▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best84 73 71@trip 77C

Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 77 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 84 73 71

Jockey Randy Vega 27% career 2-for-54 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer Marco Adair Chavez-Gutierrez 14% career

Also today · Jockey R1: Squeakies Toy 20-1, R9: Kornegay 15-1

CLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

Winner of a 6-horse maiden claiming $10,000 race at WRD last time. Was running in maiden claiming $10,000; today's stakes nongraded is an easier level on paper.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1F on Sep 3; 0 works in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	WRD	1.36364f D	sMd10000	Won/6	84	3.2-1	b	Speed;held gamely late
6/27	FMT	1.13636f D	MCL 15k	3rd/6 -2½L	73	2.0-1	b L	Late rally;up for 3rd
5/14	RP	1.13636f D	sMd10000	2nd/10 by hd	71	3.1-1	b L	Dueled every step

2Vaquero 123Ran 6thG. Gutierrez · B. ClayGutierrez · ClayC72 90 54►↕@trip 9020-1Fair 50-12%► Steady72 90 54 ↕@trip 90C
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 54–90 · Best fig at today's trip 90 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 90 54
Jockey Gonzalo Gutierrez 32% career 4-for-81 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Buddy Leon Clay 25% career 1-for-14 on dirt this meet (7%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Vf Party Girl 12-1, R9: Bad N Bourgeoisie 15-1, R10: D Amor 15-1, R11: Pyc Wicked Fun 15-1
Class relief: maiden special weight last time, stakes nongraded today. Winless in 12 starts at this distance.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 8d ago
RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/22 WRD 1.36364f D sMdSpWt 9th/10 -4¼L 72 30-1 b L Fractious;no menace
8/26 SRR 1½f D MSW 3rd/5 -3¼L 90 2.2-1 b L Late rally
6/20 FMT 1.59091f D MSW 9th/9 -4¾L 54 3.6-1 b L Awkward start

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/22	WRD	1.36364f D	sMdSpWt	9th/10 -4¼L	72	30-1	b L	Fractious;no menace
8/26	SRR	1½f D	MSW	3rd/5 -3¼L	90	2.2-1	b L	Late rally
6/20	FMT	1.59091f D	MSW	9th/9 -4¾L	54	3.6-1	b L	Awkward start

3Mr Booombastic▼★Ran 3rdC. Smith · J. BurciagaSmith · BurciagaB80 97 89▼▼-14@trip 988-1Fair 12-17%▼▼ Big drop -1480 97 89@trip 98B▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (80 vs 97)★ Best at the trip 98

Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -14 · Best fig at today's trip 98 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 97 89

▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (80 vs 97)★ Best at the trip 98

Jockey Cody Rodger Smith 31% career 9-for-89 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Jose Angel Burciaga 14% career 1-for-6 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Make It Country 6-1, R6: Sinful Gem 15-1, R9: Painted Smoke Wagon 10-1, R10: Juncture 12-1

Tops the field on speed figures, a 97 against 96 for the next best. A big drop, allowance to stakes nongraded, and worth asking why.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 54d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	WRD	1.59091f D	sAlw26200nc	5th/6 -1L	80	3.2-1	b	Step slow;no late kick
7/18	FMT	1.59091f D	SpeedhrsDb25k	2nd/10	97	31-1	b	Led;dug in;outfinished
7/2	FMT	1.59091f D	DbyTrl 5000	3rd/8 -1L	89	7.1-1	b	Chase;outkicked for 2d

4Atsi MondayRan 2ndF. Ramirez Jr. · J. OlmsteadRamirez Jr. · OlmsteadB85 85 83▼-3@trip 953-1Fair 7-223%▼ Down -385 85 83@trip 95B2

Card model 23% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -3 · Best fig at today's trip 95 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 85 83

Jockey Francisco Raul Jr Ramirez 33% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jason L Olmstead 35% career 3-for-59 on dirt this meet (5%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Holliewood 8-1, R5: Aj Wine Wagon 6-1, R6: Quit Kissin My Hocks 15-1, R7: Aj Time To Fly 15-1 +1 more · Trainer R2: Holliewood 8-1, R2: The Cowboy Chick 3-1, R2: Southard Legend 10-1, R3: Political Spin 6-1 +25 more

Has won 5 of 14 going today's distance. Purse drops from $145,000 to $5,000 against its last start.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 76d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	PRM	1.81818f D	AltoonaDby145k	6th/10 by nk	85	9.5-1	b LB	No final bid
9/7	PRM	1.81818f D	DbyTrl 8000	Won/8	85	3.2-1	b LB	Going away
7/6	PRM	1.59091f D	PRMGoldDby164k	6th/10 -2L	83	2.2-1	b LB	Needed more

5Famous N RelentlessRan 1stR. Garcia · J. OlmsteadGarcia · OlmsteadA93 84 80▲+7@trip 912-1Fair 9-537%▲ Up +793 84 80@trip 91A1

Card model 37% · Fair odds 9-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +7 · Best fig at today's trip 91 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 93 84 80

Jockey Ramiro Haro Garcia 33% career 6-for-47 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Jason L Olmstead 35% career 3-for-59 on dirt this meet (5%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Southard Legend 10-1, R3: Tux Hard Shop 15-1, R5: Tymetogojoe 4-1, R6: Apollitikal Dreamer 2-1 +5 more · Trainer R2: Holliewood 8-1, R2: The Cowboy Chick 3-1, R2: Southard Legend 10-1, R3: Political Spin 6-1 +25 more

WON LAST3/5 board here

Has moved up each time out, 80 to 84 to 93. Comes in off a victory in a 7-horse allowance race at WRD.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 237d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 3 on the board from 5 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	WRD	1.81818f D	Alw nc	Won/7	93	0.9-1	b L	Led;dug in late;held
8/9	ALB	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	5th/7 -4L	84	1.7-1	b L	Faded;
7/11	ALB	2f D	RainbDbyG1 G1	9th/10 -2¼L	80	16-1	b L	Bolted inside mid str

6Relentless WineRan 7thJ. Soto · J. OlmsteadSoto · OlmsteadA92 87 96▲+4@trip 9210-1Fair 15-16%▲ Up +492 87 96@trip 92A

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +4 · Best fig at today's trip 92 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 92 87 96

Jockey Jhaciel Soto 26% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jason L Olmstead 35% career 3-for-59 on dirt this meet (5%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Political Spin 6-1, R5: Kissin Lane Lo 3-1, R6: Duty Callz 20-1, R7: Urban Cowboy 123 4-1 +3 more · Trainer R2: Holliewood 8-1, R2: The Cowboy Chick 3-1, R2: Southard Legend 10-1, R3: Political Spin 6-1 +25 more

★ FASTEST WORK3/5 board here

Fastest 1F work of its morning on Mar 9 (:11.40), a sign it is training forwardly. Last out was 3rd, 1 length behind the winner, in a 6-horse maiden special weight race at WRD.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS SHARP 1f in :11.40 on Mar 9 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d

RECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 5 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/19	WRD	1½f D	sMdSpWt	3rd/6 -1L	92	0.2-1	b L	Vied early;outkicked
9/6	ALB	2f D	AllAmerInv100k	8th/8 -2L	87	25-1	b L	Close early;empty late
8/9	ALB	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	4th/9 -2½L	96	132-1	b L	No rally;

7Uncle RedheadsRan 4thA. Alvidrez · J. OlmsteadAlvidrez · OlmsteadA88 87 95▼-4≡@trip 914-1Fair 9-219%▼ Down -488 87 95 ≡@trip 91A3

Card model 19% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -4 · ≡ Steady figures 87–95 · Best fig at today's trip 91 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 88 87 95

Jockey Armando Alvidrez 28% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jason L Olmstead 35% career 3-for-59 on dirt this meet (5%)

Also today · Jockey R2: The Cowboy Chick 3-1, R3: Corona Downhill 4-1, R6: Aj Imperium 6-1, R8: Lonestar Jess 15-1 +2 more · Trainer R2: Holliewood 8-1, R2: The Cowboy Chick 3-1, R2: Southard Legend 10-1, R3: Political Spin 6-1 +25 more

★ FASTEST WORK

Has won 9 of 18 going today's distance. Purse drops from $145,000 to $5,000 against its last start.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Jul 29 (1F in :11.40), 0 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	PRM	1.81818f D	AltoonaDby145k	4th/10 by nk	88	1.9-1	b LB	Bid; not enough
9/7	PRM	1.81818f D	DbyTrl 8000	Won/9 by ½	87	2.6-1	b LB	Cleared late;held on
8/20	CBY	1.81818f D	Cby Dby38k	3rd/9	95	0.7-1	b L	Led inside;caught late

8Valiant GeronimoRan 5thE. Escobedo · M. JungersEscobedo · JungersB80 88 81▼-4≡@trip 8115-1Fair 30-13%▼ Down -480 88 81 ≡@trip 81B

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -4 · ≡ Steady figures 80–88 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 88 81

Jockey Edwin G Escobedo 36% career 7-for-53 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Marc E Jungers 32% career 2-for-2 on dirt this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Shannons Dynasty 12-1, R5: Dulces Fire Z 2-1, R6: Henry Standing Bear 4-1, R7: Ts Cyber Flash 3-1 +3 more · Trainer R2: Shannons Dynasty 12-1

2/3 board here

Gets a new rider, Edwin G Escobedo replacing Raul Padilla Jr Hernandez. A big drop, allowance to stakes nongraded, and worth asking why.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 57d back)

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	LS	1.81818f D	Alw n2l	5th/10 -2½L	80	6.9-1	b L	Weakened late
7/30	RET	2f D	MSW	Won/7 by nk	88	1.3-1	b L	Dueled; proved best
5/9	RP	1.81818f D	DbyTrl 10000	5th/8 -2¼L	81	34-1	b L	Light bmp;wknd

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #5 Famous N Relentless, won.

1st5Famous N RelentlessWin$3.80Place$2.60Show$2.10Our #1

2nd4Atsi MondayWin—Place$5.00Show$2.80Our #2

3rd3Mr BooombasticWin—Place—Show$3.80Our #4

4th7Uncle RedheadsOur #3

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

WRD · RACE 4

OFFICIAL

Trial

Field

8 runners

Purse

$5,000

Post

2:15 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#5 · 37%

Stakes, for 3-year-olds, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 350 Yards: 16.98

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #5 Famous N Relentless (a tactical type, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 93 · 84 · 80. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #4 Atsi Monday at 3-1. Use #7 Uncle Redheads in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · WON

Top pick Famous N Relentless won

What worked

✓ Top pick in the money (1st)
✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #1)
✓ Our top 3 finished 1st, 2nd, 4th

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#5 FAMOUS N RELENTLESS	1st
#2	#4 ATSI MONDAY	2nd
#3	#7 UNCLE REDHEADS	4th
#4	#3 MR BOOOMBASTIC	3rd
#5	#6 RELENTLESS WINE	7th

Actual finish

1st	#5 Famous N Relentless	our #1
2nd	#4 Atsi Monday	our #2
3rd	#3 Mr Booombastic	our #4
4th	#7 Uncle Redheads	our #3
5th	#8 Valiant Geronimo	our #7

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #5 FAMOUS N RELENTLESS (2-1) — our number agrees.
#5 FAMOUS N RELENTLESS — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (29.3% to their 28.4%).
#4 ATSI MONDAY — our #2 number, about right at the windows (22.3% to their 21.3%).
#7 UNCLE REDHEADS — our #3 number, about right at the windows (19.3% to their 17.1%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Pyc Dynasty, #2 Vaquero 123, #3 Mr Booombastic.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Pyc Dynasty2Vaquero 1233Mr Booombastic4Atsi Monday5Famous N Relentless6Relentless Wine7Uncle Redheads8Valiant Geronimo

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Atsi Monday

Uncle Redheads

Pyc Dynasty

Vaquero 123

Mr Booombastic

Famous N Relentless

Relentless Wine

Valiant Geronimo

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