Pick sheet

Race 115:10 PM Clm 10000n2l

1.1F · Dirt · 10 entered. Our model's top pick, Ss First Down Fancy, is 34% to win (morning line implies 22%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #1 Ss First Down Fancy ML 5-2 Fair 2-1 Model #1 Top last-race fig ▼ Down -6 ★ Best at 1.13636f dirt: 95

Jockey R. Cruz · Trainer S. Valdivia · KEE 3: 0-0-1 · Dist 11: 1-2-2 · best fig at 1.13636f dirt 95 · 28 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	WRD	1.36364f D	Clm 10k n2l	3rd/10 -1L	85	3.4-1	b L	Vied;yielded late
9/5	SRR	1½f D	Clm 10k n2l	2nd/9 by hd	93	4.4-1	b L	2nd best
8/21	SRR	1f D	MCL 20k	Won/6	95	3.1-1	b L	Much the best

Case: Last out 3rd in the Clm10000n2l at WRD. Last Brisnet figures 85-93-95. Best at today's distance 95. 1-for-11 at the distance. 0-for-3 at Will Rogers Downs. S. Valdivia / R. Cruz.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #8 Naidu ML 7-2 Fair 5-1 Model #2 ▼ Down -4

Jockey B. Candanosa · Trainer G. Valdivia · KEE 5: 1-0-3 · Dist 14: 1-1-4 · best fig at 1.13636f dirt 78 · 21 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	WRD	1.59091f D	Clm 25k n2l	5th/7 -1¾L	74	7.5-1	b L	Tight st;needed more
9/28	WRD	1.36364f D	Clm 15k n2l	3rd/10 -2½L	86	2.3-1	b L	Broke in;finished well
6/27	FMT	1.13636f D	Clm 15k n2l	5th/8 -2¼L	78	2.8-1	b L	Off pace;mild rally

Case: Last out 5th/7 -1¾L in the Clm25000n2l at WRD. Last Brisnet figures 74-86-78. Best at today's distance 78. 1-for-14 at the distance. 1-for-5 at Will Rogers Downs. G. Valdivia / B. Candanosa.

Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Use #5 Striking Storm ML 4-1 Fair 6-1 Model #3 ▼▼ Big drop -8 Last out 3rd in the sClm10000n2l at WRD. Last Brisnet figures 74-85-82. Best at today's distance 87. 1-for-15 at the distance. 0-for-8 at Will Rogers Downs. L. Chavira / C. Benn. Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey C. Benn · Trainer L. Chavira · KEE 8: 0-1-1 · Dist 15: 1-2-3 · best fig at 1.13636f dirt 87 · 14 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	WRD	1.59091f D	sClm10000n2l	3rd/9 -1L	74	3.7-1	b L	Kept at bay;held 3rd
10/4	WRD	1.36364f D	sClm10000n2l	5th/9 -3L	85	5.2-1	b L	Off pace;evenly
9/22	WRD	1.59091f D	STA	4th/8 -2½L	82	79-1	b L	Chased;no final kick

Longshot #4 Pyc Glory ML 8-1 Fair 10-1 Model #4 ▼ Down -5 ▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (76 vs 90)

Jockey R. Garcia · Trainer H. Ontiveros · KEE 1: 0-0-0 · Dist 14: 1-2-2 · best fig at 1.13636f dirt 89 · 28 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	WRD	1.36364f D	Clm 10k n2l	10th/10 -2¾L	76	7.3-1	b L	Chased;weakened
7/11	LMR	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	2nd/6	90	17-1	b LB	No match for winner
6/19	ARP	0.454545f D	Alw nc	5th/9	—	5.6-1	b LB	Late bid

Case: Last out 10th/10 -2¾L in the Clm10000n2l at WRD. Last Brisnet figures 76-90. Best at today's distance 89. 1-for-14 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Will Rogers Downs. H. Ontiveros / R. Garcia.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Narrowing the field: A #1, #4, #5 · B #2, #8, #10 · C #3, #6, #7, #9

Angles: #4 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (76 vs 90)

R11 WRD · Claiming $10,000

5:10 PM ET · 250 Yards Dirt · $15,000 · 10 runners5:10 PM · 1.1f Dirt · 10 runners

Official $15K · Claiming $10,000

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Ss First Down Fancy★Ran 1stR. Cruz · S. ValdiviaCruz · ValdiviaA85 93 95▼-6@trip 955-2Fair 2-134%▼ Down -685 93 95@trip 95A★ Best at the trip 951
Card model 34% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -6 · Best fig at today's trip 95 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 93 95
★ Best at the trip 95
Jockey Roman Cruz 33% career ★ 25-for-111 on dirt this meet (23%), #3 of 33 · Trainer Samuel E Valdivia 29% career 11-for-59 on dirt this meet (19%)
Also today · Jockey R2: Emerald Bay 2-1, R3: I Am A Candy Tree 2-1, R5: Echos Of Cowboy 20-1, R9: Valiant Sass 2-1 +1 more · Trainer R7: Another Rownd 20-1, R9: Painted Smoke Wagon 10-1, R10: Juncture 12-1
Tops the field on speed figures, a 95 against 93 for the next best. Finished 3rd in a 10-horse $10,000 claiming race at WRD, beaten 1 length.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 78d ago
RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/4 WRD 1.36364f D Clm 10k n2l 3rd/10 -1L 85 3.4-1 b L Vied;yielded late
9/5 SRR 1½f D Clm 10k n2l 2nd/9 by hd 93 4.4-1 b L 2nd best
8/21 SRR 1f D MCL 20k Won/6 95 3.1-1 b L Much the best

2Pyc Wicked FunRan 5thG. Gutierrez · J. MancillasGutierrez · MancillasB83 69 70▲▲+14@trip 9015-1Fair 30-13%▲▲ Big jump +1483 69 70@trip 90B

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +14 · Best fig at today's trip 90 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 83 69 70

Jockey Gonzalo Gutierrez 32% career 4-for-81 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Juliana Mancillas 18% career 1-for-17 on dirt this meet (6%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Vf Party Girl 12-1, R4: Vaquero 123 20-1, R9: Bad N Bourgeoisie 15-1, R10: D Amor 15-1

★ FASTEST WORK0/3 board here

Drops from allowance to $10,000 claiming. Last out was 7th, 1½ lengths behind the winner, in a 9-horse allowance race at WRD.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1F on Aug 26; 0 works in 30d

RECORD Not on the board in 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	WRD	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	7th/9 -1½L	83	56-1	b L	Broke in;chased;faded
7/17	FMT	1.36364f D	sAlw18500n2l	9th/10 -7¾L	69	47-1	b L	Squeezed back early
7/1	FMT	1.13636f D	Alw n2l	7th/8 -2¾L	70	12-1	b L	Lunged start; outrun

3Streking ChangRan 2ndC. Esqueda · T. TalleyEsqueda · TalleyC80 81 61▲▲+11↕10-1Fair 12-17%▲▲ Big jump +1180 81 61 ↕C

Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 61–81 · Last 3 figs 80 81 61

Jockey Christian Esqueda 29% career 3-for-40 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Thearon Talley 14% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Ms Chievious 2-1, R2: Azoomin Cowboy 6-1, R5: Nsm B24 8-1, R7: Counter 44 15-1 +2 more

Was running in allowance; today's $10,000 claiming is an easier level on paper. 2nd of 7 at 1F on Mar 12, in :12.40.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 55d back)

RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/13	WRD	1.36364f D	sAlw20900n2l	5th/7 -1¼L	80	80-1	b L	Step slow;no late bid
5/28	RP	1.81818f D	Clm 10k n2l	4th/10 -2L	81	17-1	b L	Outdueled for show
5/14	RP	1.36364f D	Clm 20k n2l	10th/10 -3L	61	32-1	b L	Never found stride

4Pyc Glory▼LSRan 8thR. Garcia · H. OntiverosGarcia · OntiverosA76 90 72▼-5@trip 898-1Fair 10-110%▼ Down -576 90 72@trip 89A▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (76 vs 90)LS

Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -5 · Best fig at today's trip 89 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 90 72

▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (76 vs 90)LS

Longshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 10% against a line of 9%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Ramiro Haro Garcia 33% career 6-for-47 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Hugo Ontiveros 21% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Southard Legend 10-1, R3: Tux Hard Shop 15-1, R4: Famous N Relentless 2-1, R5: Tymetogojoe 4-1 +5 more

★ FASTEST WORK

Fastest 1F work of its morning on Feb 1 (:12.40), a sign it is training forwardly. 10th last time, 2¾ lengths back, in a field of 10.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1F on Feb 1; 0 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	WRD	1.36364f D	Clm 10k n2l	10th/10 -2¾L	76	7.3-1	b L	Chased;weakened
7/11	LMR	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	2nd/6	90	17-1	b LB	No match for winner
6/19	ARP	0.454545f D	Alw nc	5th/9	—	5.6-1	b LB	Late bid

5Striking StormRan 4thC. Benn · L. ChaviraBenn · ChaviraA74 85 82▼▼-8@trip 874-1Fair 6-115%▼▼ Big drop -874 85 82@trip 87A3

Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · Best fig at today's trip 87 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 85 82

Jockey Cordarelton J Benn 35% career 12-for-90 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Luz Chavira 34% career 2-for-31 on dirt this meet (6%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Lil Kool Wink 15-1, R3: Paint That Dynasty 15-1, R8: Besame El Polvo 20-1, R9: Cara Cortada 727 20-1 · Trainer R9: Cara Cortada 727 20-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Beaten 1 length for 3rd in a 9-horse $10,000 claiming race at WRD. Posted the fastest 1F work of the morning on May 14, in :12.60.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on May 14 (1F in :12.60), 0 works in 30d

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 6 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	WRD	1.59091f D	sClm10000n2l	3rd/9 -1L	74	3.7-1	b L	Kept at bay;held 3rd
10/4	WRD	1.36364f D	sClm10000n2l	5th/9 -3L	85	5.2-1	b L	Off pace;evenly
9/22	WRD	1.59091f D	STA	4th/8 -2½L	82	79-1	b L	Chased;no final kick

6The Handsome PrizeRan 6thJ. Pedraza · V. TorresPedraza · TorresC81 78 79▲+3≡@trip 8215-1Fair 30-13%▲ Up +381 78 79 ≡@trip 82C

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +3 · ≡ Steady figures 77–81 · Best fig at today's trip 82 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 78 79

Jockey Jasten Pedraza 17% career 0-for-19 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Valerie Torres 25% career 4-for-40 on dirt this meet (10%)

CLASS DROP

Finished 5th in a 10-horse $10,000 claiming race at WRD, beaten 2¾ lengths.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 66 days ago

RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 4 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/4	WRD	1.36364f D	Clm 10k n2l	5th/10 -2¾L	81	20-1	Lost path st;mild bid
7/15	FMT	1.13636f D	Clm 15k n2l	9th/9 -2¼L	78	26-1	Bump between start
6/11	FMT	1.13636f D	Clm 10k n2l	6th/7 -¾L	79	11-1	No final kick

7Chuys GirlRan 9thJ. Torres · M. LozaTorres · LozaC79 77 78▲▲+11↕@trip 7720-1Fair 50-12%▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best79 77 78 ↕@trip 77C

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 49–79 · Best fig at today's trip 77 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 77 78

Jockey Jorge Torres 32% career 2-for-15 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Mario J Loza 22% career 2-for-20 on dirt this meet (10%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Lupita Silos 8-1, R3: Bernina Express 15-1, R6: Shaynificent 20-1, R10: Tell Em Im Busy 20-1

CLASS UP★ FASTEST WORK

Gets a new rider, Jorge Torres replacing Gilberto Linares. The Oct 25 work, 1F in :11.60, was the best time at that distance that morning.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Bobbled st; moved up. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS SHARP 1f in :11.60 on Oct 25 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	WRD	1.36364f D	Clm 10k n2l	8th/10 -4¼L	79	50-1	b L	Bobbled st;moved up
8/21	RET	1.13636f D	Clm 5k n2l	6th/10 -2¾L	77	24-1	b L	No menace
7/19	GIL	1.36364f D	Clm 5k n2l	5th/7 -1L	78	13-1	b L	Contention early faded

8NaiduRan 10thB. Candanosa · G. ValdiviaCandanosa · ValdiviaB74 86 78▼-4@trip 787-2Fair 5-116%▼ Down -474 86 78@trip 78B2

Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -4 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 86 78

Jockey Bryan Candanosa 36% career 4-for-21 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Guillermo Valdivia 29% career 4-for-24 on dirt this meet (17%)

Also today · Jockey R5: Strive 10-1, R6: Hardtohock 3-1, R8: Senor Quintero Lo 4-1 · Trainer R6: Shaynificent 20-1

CLASS UP4/5 board here

Class relief: $25,000 claiming last time, $10,000 claiming today. Bryan Candanosa takes over from Angel O Ramirez in the saddle.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 55d back)

RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 5 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	WRD	1.59091f D	Clm 25k n2l	5th/7 -1¾L	74	7.5-1	b L	Tight st;needed more
9/28	WRD	1.36364f D	Clm 15k n2l	3rd/10 -2½L	86	2.3-1	b L	Broke in;finished well
6/27	FMT	1.13636f D	Clm 15k n2l	5th/8 -2¼L	78	2.8-1	b L	Off pace;mild rally

9Della DouxRan 7thJ. Cardenas · G. WalkerCardenas · WalkerC79 79 77►≡@trip 8220-1Fair 99-11%► Steady79 79 77 ≡@trip 82C

Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 77–82 · Best fig at today's trip 82 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 79 77

Jockey Jacob Cardenas 32% career 1-for-16 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Gary K Walker 22% career 0-for-12 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R7: Js Dasher Hero 20-1 · Trainer R1: Lil Kool Wink 15-1

CLASS DROP0/3 board here

Worked 1F in :12.60 on Aug 12, 3rd of 13 at the distance. Jockey switch: Cordarelton J Benn last out, Jacob Cardenas today.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 81d back)

RECORD Not on the board in 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/29	WRD	1.36364f D	sClm10000n2l	7th/10 -2½L	79	40-1	b L	Off pace;evenly
8/21	SRR	1.13636f D	Clm 15k n2l	4th/6 -1L	79	20-1	b L	Even bid
6/27	FMT	1.13636f D	Clm 15k n2l	6th/8 -¾L	77	16-1	b L	Prominent;faded

10Redneck FunRan 3rdM. Delgado · H. RamirezDelgado · RamirezB68 84 93▼▼-19↕@trip 826-1Fair 10-19%▼▼ Big drop -1968 84 93 ↕@trip 82B

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -19 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 68–93 · Best fig at today's trip 82 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 84 93

Jockey Mario Delgado 32% career 12-for-84 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Hernesto Ramirez 32% career 2-for-39 on dirt this meet (5%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Vf Zip N Run 10-1, R3: Maverykk 5-1, R6: Mannfredi 8-1, R7: Another Rownd 20-1 +1 more · Trainer R1: Rykar 6-1, R3: I Am A Candy Tree 2-1, R10: Tell Em Im Busy 20-1

0/5 board here

Trending the wrong way on speed, 93 to 84 to 68. Jockey switch: Juan Arellano last out, Mario Delgado today.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Lugged in; no late bid. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 62d ago

RECORD Not on the board in 5 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	WRD	1.59091f D	sClm10000n2l	8th/9 -2½L	68	10-1	b L	Lugged in;no late bid
9/29	WRD	1.36364f D	sClm10000n2l	5th/10 -1½L	84	12-1	b L	Chased;needed more
7/8	FMT	1.36364f D	sClm10000n2l	2nd/7	93	1.8-1	b L	Dueled; lost head bob

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #1 Ss First Down Fancy, won.

1st1Ss First Down FancyWin$6.60Place$4.60Show$3.60Our #1

2nd3Streking ChangWin—Place$12.80Show$5.80Our #6

3rd10Redneck FunWin—Place—Show$4.80Our #5

4th5Striking StormOur #3

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

WRD · RACE 11

OFFICIAL

Claiming $10,000

Field

10 runners

Purse

$15,000

Post

5:10 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#1 · 34%

Claiming $10,000, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won two races lifetime.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 250 Yards: 13.0

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #1 Ss First Down Fancy (a tactical type, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 85 · 93 · 95. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #8 Naidu at 7-2. Use #5 Striking Storm in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · WON

Top pick Ss First Down Fancy won

What worked

✓ Top pick in the money (1st)
✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #1)

What didn't

✗ Our top 3 finished 1st, 10th, 4th

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#1 SS FIRST DOWN FANCY	1st
#2	#8 NAIDU	10th
#3	#5 STRIKING STORM	4th
#4	#4 PYC GLORY	8th
#5	#10 REDNECK FUN	3rd

Actual finish

1st	#1 Ss First Down Fancy	our #1
2nd	#3 Streking Chang	our #6
3rd	#10 Redneck Fun	our #5
4th	#5 Striking Storm	our #3
5th	#2 Pyc Wicked Fun	our #7

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #1 SS FIRST DOWN FANCY (5-2) — our number agrees.
#1 SS FIRST DOWN FANCY — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (24.8% to their 22.4%).
#8 NAIDU — our #2 number, about right at the windows (18.6% to their 17.5%).
#5 STRIKING STORM — our #3 number, about right at the windows (16.2% to their 15.7%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Ss First Down Fancy, #2 Pyc Wicked Fun, #3 Streking Chang.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Ss First Down Fancy2Pyc Wicked Fun3Streking Chang4Pyc Glory5Striking Storm6The Handsome Prize7Chuys Girl8Naidu9Della Doux10Redneck Fun

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Ss First Down Fancy

Pyc Wicked Fun

Streking Chang

Pyc Glory

Striking Storm

The Handsome Prize

Chuys Girl

Naidu

Della Doux

Redneck Fun

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