Pick sheet

Race 21:25 PM Trial

1.6F · Dirt · 8 entered. Our model's top pick, The Cowboy Chick, is 37% to win (morning line implies 34%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #6 The Cowboy Chick ML 3-1 Fair 9-5 Model #1 ▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best

Jockey A. Alvidrez · Trainer J. Olmstead · KEE 5: 1-2-0 · Dist 16: 2-4-1 · best fig at 1.59091f dirt 84 · 21 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	WRD	1.36364f D	Alw n3l	2nd/8 -1L	94	7.1-1	b L	Surged late;missed
9/7	PRM	1.81818f D	DbyTrl 8000	7th/9 -2½L	76	53-1	b LB	Flattened out
8/16	PRM	1.59091f D	OC 15k	3rd/8 -¾L	84	15-1	b LB	Drifted in start

Case: Last out 2nd in the Alw20310n3l at WRD. Last Brisnet figures 94-76-84. Best at today's distance 84. 2-for-16 at the distance. 1-for-5 at Will Rogers Downs. J. Olmstead / A. Alvidrez.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #2 Azoomin Cowboy ML 6-1 Fair 9-2 Model #2 ▲ Up +3

Jockey C. Esqueda · Trainer J. Hernandez-Martinez · KEE 5: 1-1-2 · Dist 11: 2-2-2 · best fig at 1.59091f dirt 88 · 47 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/15	WRD	1.36364f D	sAlw21500n3l	7th/10 -1½L	94	6.1-1	b L	Broke in;in tight late
7/17	FMT	1.36364f D	sAlw18500n2l	Won/10	101	1.7-1	b L	Took command outside
7/2	FMT	1.59091f D	DbyTrl 5000	6th/8 -3¼L	88	4.0-1	b L	Off pace;evenly

Case: Last out 7th/10 -1½L in the sAlw21500n3l at WRD. Last Brisnet figures 94-101-88. Best at today's distance 88. 2-for-11 at the distance. 1-for-5 at Will Rogers Downs. J. Hernandez-Martinez / C. Esqueda.

Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Use #1 Holliewood ML 8-1 Fair 6-1 Model #3 ▼ Down -3 Last out 6th/8 -1¼L in the Alw21965b at PRM. Last Brisnet figures 81-87-91. Best at today's distance 89. 3-for-10 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Will Rogers Downs. J. Olmstead / F. Ramirez Jr.. Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Jockey F. Ramirez Jr. · Trainer J. Olmstead · KEE 1: 0-0-0 · Dist 10: 3-2-1 · best fig at 1.59091f dirt 89 · 51 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/11	PRM	1.36364f D	Alw b	6th/8 -1¼L	81	24-1	b LB	Bumpd early;no threat
8/20	CBY	1.81818f D	Cby Dby38k	7th/9 -3¼L	87	26-1	b L	No factor
8/6	CBY	1.81818f D	DbyTrl 7000	2nd/7 -1L	91	5.0-1	b L	Drifted;re-bid;missed

Longshot #7 Southard Legend ML 10-1 Fair 6-1 Model #4 ▼▼ Big drop -12

Jockey R. Garcia · Trainer J. Olmstead · KEE 5: 0-1-2 · Dist 16: 1-4-3 · best fig at 1.59091f dirt 82 · 19 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/13	WRD	1.36364f D	sAlw20900n2l	7th/7 -3¾L	75	7.5-1	b L	Pinched start;trailed
9/27	WRD	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	3rd/9 -2¼L	91	12-1	b L	Bid;outkicked for 2nd
8/22	PRM	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	4th/7 -¾L	81	3.2-1	b LB	Broke in;even late

Case: Last out 7th/7 -3¾L in the sAlw20900n2l at WRD. Last Brisnet figures 75-91-81. Best at today's distance 82. 1-for-16 at the distance. 0-for-5 at Will Rogers Downs. J. Olmstead / R. Garcia.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

★ Distance horse: #4 Wf Tuff As Diamonds (15-1) has the best figure in the field at 1.59091f dirt: 93 from 4 tries, record at the distance 15: 2-3-3. Not one of our picks.

Narrowing the field: A #3, #5, #6 · B #1, #2, #4 · C #7, #8

R2 WRD · Trial

1:25 PM ET · 350 Yards Dirt · $5,000 · 7 runners (1 out)1:25 PM · 1.6f Dirt · 7 runners (1 out)

Official $5,000 · Trial

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #4 Wf Tuff As Diamonds (15-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 93 from 4 tries. Not in our top three.

1HolliewoodRan 6thF. Ramirez Jr. · J. OlmsteadRamirez Jr. · OlmsteadB81 87 91▼-3@trip 898-1Fair 6-115%▼ Down -381 87 91@trip 89B3

Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -3 · Best fig at today's trip 89 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 87 91

Jockey Francisco Raul Jr Ramirez 33% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jason L Olmstead 35% career 3-for-59 on dirt this meet (5%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R4: Atsi Monday 3-1, R5: Aj Wine Wagon 6-1, R6: Quit Kissin My Hocks 15-1, R7: Aj Time To Fly 15-1 +1 more · Trainer this race: The Cowboy Chick 3-1, this race: Southard Legend 10-1, R3: Political Spin 6-1, R3: Corona Downhill 4-1 +25 more

★ FASTEST WORK

Drops from allowance to stakes nongraded. Figures have slipped: 91, 87, 81 over its last three.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Bumpd early; no threat. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS SHARP 1f in :12.00 on Jun 18 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/11	PRM	1.36364f D	Alw b	6th/8 -1¼L	81	24-1	b LB	Bumpd early;no threat
8/20	CBY	1.81818f D	Cby Dby38k	7th/9 -3¼L	87	26-1	b L	No factor
8/6	CBY	1.81818f D	DbyTrl 7000	2nd/7 -1L	91	5.0-1	b L	Drifted;re-bid;missed

2Azoomin CowboyRan 4thC. Esqueda · J. Hernandez-MartinezEsqueda · Hernandez-MartinezB94 101 88▲+3@trip 886-1Fair 9-218%▲ Up +394 101 88@trip 88B2

Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +3 · Best fig at today's trip 88 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 94 101 88

Jockey Christian Esqueda 29% career 3-for-40 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Jose Hernandez-Martinez

Also today · Jockey R1: Ms Chievious 2-1, R5: Nsm B24 8-1, R7: Counter 44 15-1, R8: Jump Jump Jerry 6-1 +2 more

★ FASTEST WORK4/5 board here

New trainer: Carlos Moreno had it last time, Jose Hernandez-Martinez now. Was running in allowance; today's stakes nongraded is an easier level on paper.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Feb 11 (1.1F in :12.20), 0 works in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 5 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/15	WRD	1.36364f D	sAlw21500n3l	7th/10 -1½L	94	6.1-1	b L	Broke in;in tight late
7/17	FMT	1.36364f D	sAlw18500n2l	Won/10	101	1.7-1	b L	Took command outside
7/2	FMT	1.59091f D	DbyTrl 5000	6th/8 -3¼L	88	4.0-1	b L	Off pace;evenly

3Jk Double TroubleJ. Dominguez · V. IbarraDominguez · IbarraA103 81 88▲▲+19↕@trip 925-1<1%▲▲ Big jump +19 · career best103 81 88 ↕@trip 92A

Card model <1% · Our #8 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +19 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 81–103 · Best fig at today's trip 92 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 103 81 88

Jockey Jonathan Dominguez 33% career 1-for-24 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer Victor Ibarra 34% career

60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

Won last out in an 8-horse allowance race at FMT. 122 days since the last start, the longest layoff in here, so it needs the works to say it's ready.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1F on Oct 21; 1 work in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/2	FMT	1.36364f D	sAlw19500n3l	Won/8	103	4.5-1	b L	Showed speed;held sway
5/28	RP	1½f D	Alw n3l	8th/10 -2¾L	81	7.9-1	b L	Urged;empty
5/10	RP	1.81818f D	DbyTrl 10000	3rd/8 -1L	88	6.7-1	b L	Sharp st;cldnt fend

4Wf Tuff As Diamonds★Ran 2ndF. Fonseca-Soto · H. HobbsFonseca-Soto · HobbsB85 95 92▼-7@trip 9315-1Fair 15-16%▼ Down -785 95 92@trip 93B★ Best at the trip 93

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -7 · Best fig at today's trip 93 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 95 92

★ Best at the trip 93

Jockey Fernando Fonseca-Soto 28% career 1-for-26 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer Haley N Hobbs 27% career 1-for-31 on dirt this meet (3%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Little White Dove 7-2, R7: Virtual Escape 6-1 · Trainer R1: Little White Dove 7-2, R1: Vf Party Girl 12-1

2/4 board here

A big drop, allowance to stakes nongraded, and worth asking why. Beaten 2 lengths for 5th in a 9-horse allowance race at WRD.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 257d back)

RECORD 2 wins, 2 on the board from 4 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/6	WRD	1.13636f D	sAlw21500n3l	5th/9 -2L	85	1.8-1	b L	Chased early;flattened
9/15	WRD	1.36364f D	sAlw21500n3l	6th/10 -1¾L	95	4.9-1	b L	Chased;needed more
8/20	CBY	1.81818f D	Cby Dby38k	4th/9 -2¾L	92	4.0-1	b L	Off bit slow; rallied

5Emerald BayRan 1stR. Cruz · D. KeenerCruz · KeenerA93 98 94►@trip 892-1<1%► Steady93 98 94@trip 89A

Card model <1% · Our #7 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 89 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 93 98 94

Jockey Roman Cruz 33% career ★ 25-for-111 on dirt this meet (23%), #3 of 33 · Trainer Dee Keener 35% career ★ 7-for-34 on dirt this meet (21%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R3: I Am A Candy Tree 2-1, R5: Echos Of Cowboy 20-1, R9: Valiant Sass 2-1, R10: Dos Grandiose 6-1 +1 more · Trainer R3: Bernina Express 15-1, R9: Valiant Sass 2-1, R10: Dos Grandiose 6-1

4/4 board here

Has won 6 of 17 going today's distance. Dee Keener takes over the training from Michael Moss.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 75d ago

RECORD On the board in all 4 starts here (2 wins)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/19	WRD	2f D	WRD Oaks50k	2nd/10 -½L	93	3.7-1	b L	Turned away;game 2nd
10/5	WRD	2f D	DbyTrl 5000	Won/8	98	0.5-1	b L	Took command;cruised
9/21	WRD	1.36364f D	OC 15k	Won/10	94	0.3-1	b L	Led;kept to task

6The Cowboy ChickRan 3rdA. Alvidrez · J. OlmsteadAlvidrez · OlmsteadA94 76 84▲▲+14@trip 843-1Fair 9-537%▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best94 76 84@trip 84A1

Card model 37% · Fair odds 9-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 84 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 94 76 84

Jockey Armando Alvidrez 28% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jason L Olmstead 35% career 3-for-59 on dirt this meet (5%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Corona Downhill 4-1, R4: Uncle Redheads 4-1, R6: Aj Imperium 6-1, R8: Lonestar Jess 15-1 +2 more · Trainer this race: Holliewood 8-1, this race: Southard Legend 10-1, R3: Political Spin 6-1, R3: Corona Downhill 4-1 +25 more

3/5 board here

2nd of 19 at 1F on Mar 2, in :11.60. 2nd last time, 1 length back, in a field of 8.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 111 days ago

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 5 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	WRD	1.36364f D	Alw n3l	2nd/8 -1L	94	7.1-1	b L	Surged late;missed
9/7	PRM	1.81818f D	DbyTrl 8000	7th/9 -2½L	76	53-1	b LB	Flattened out
8/16	PRM	1.59091f D	OC 15k	3rd/8 -¾L	84	15-1	b LB	Drifted in start

7Southard LegendLSRan 5thR. Garcia · J. OlmsteadGarcia · OlmsteadC75 91 81▼▼-12@trip 8210-1Fair 6-115%▼▼ Big drop -1275 91 81@trip 82CLS

Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -12 · Best fig at today's trip 82 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 91 81

Longshot read: 10-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 15% against a line of 7%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Ramiro Haro Garcia 33% career 6-for-47 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Jason L Olmstead 35% career 3-for-59 on dirt this meet (5%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R3: Tux Hard Shop 15-1, R4: Famous N Relentless 2-1, R5: Tymetogojoe 4-1, R6: Apollitikal Dreamer 2-1 +5 more · Trainer this race: Holliewood 8-1, this race: The Cowboy Chick 3-1, R3: Political Spin 6-1, R3: Corona Downhill 4-1 +25 more

★ FASTEST WORK3/5 board here

Posted the fastest 1F work of the morning on Mar 9, in :11.40. Class relief: allowance last time, stakes nongraded today.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

TROUBLED TRIP Pinched start; trailed last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Mar 9 (1F in :11.40), 0 works in 30d

RECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 5 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/13	WRD	1.36364f D	sAlw20900n2l	7th/7 -3¾L	75	7.5-1	b L	Pinched start;trailed
9/27	WRD	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	3rd/9 -2¼L	91	12-1	b L	Bid;outkicked for 2nd
8/22	PRM	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	4th/7 -¾L	81	3.2-1	b LB	Broke in;even late

8Shannons DynastyRan 7thE. Escobedo · M. JungersEscobedo · JungersC88 89 72▲+4@trip 8912-1Fair 10-19%▲ Up +488 89 72@trip 89C

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +4 · Best fig at today's trip 89 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 88 89 72

Jockey Edwin G Escobedo 36% career 7-for-53 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Marc E Jungers 32% career 2-for-2 on dirt this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R4: Valiant Geronimo 15-1, R5: Dulces Fire Z 2-1, R6: Henry Standing Bear 4-1, R7: Ts Cyber Flash 3-1 +3 more · Trainer R4: Valiant Geronimo 15-1

★ FASTEST WORK2/3 board here

Off 50 days since the last start. Class relief: allowance last time, stakes nongraded today.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Feb 4 (1F in :11.80), 0 works in 30d

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/12	ALB	1.59091f D	Alw n2l	6th/10 -3L	88	4.7-1	b L	Improved position;
7/18	ALB	1.59091f D	Alw n2l	2nd/9 by hd	89	4.6-1	b L	Bid; just missed
6/28	ALB	2f D	DbyTrl 10000	6th/8 -2L	72	19-1	b L	Hopped;ducked in start

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #6 The Cowboy Chick, finished 3rd.

1st5Emerald BayWin$2.10Place$2.10Show$2.10Our #7

2nd4Wf Tuff As DiamondsWin—Place$6.00Show$3.00Our #6

3rd6The Cowboy ChickWin—Place—Show$2.40Our #1

4th2Azoomin CowboyOur #2

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

WRD · RACE 2

OFFICIAL

Trial

Field

8 runners

Purse

$5,000

Post

1:25 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#6 · 37%

Stakes, for 3-year-olds, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 350 Yards: 16.98

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #6 The Cowboy Chick (a tactical type, M/L 3-1). Recent figures: 94 · 76 · 84. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #2 Azoomin Cowboy at 6-1. Use #1 Holliewood in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · 3RD

Top pick The Cowboy Chick ran 3rd · Emerald Bay won (our #7)

What worked

✓ Top pick in the money (3rd)

What didn't

✗ Winner was outside our top 3 (our #7)
✗ Our top 3 finished 3rd, 4th, 6th

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#6 THE COWBOY CHICK	3rd
#2	#2 AZOOMIN COWBOY	4th
#3	#1 HOLLIEWOOD	6th
#4	#7 SOUTHARD LEGEND	5th
#5	#8 SHANNONS DYNASTY	7th

Actual finish

1st	#5 Emerald Bay	our #7
2nd	#4 Wf Tuff as Diamonds	our #6
3rd	#6 The Cowboy Chick	our #1
4th	#2 Azoomin Cowboy	our #2
5th	#7 Southard Legend	our #4

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #5 EMERALD BAY (2-1) — our number has it ranked #7.
#6 THE COWBOY CHICK — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 32.1%, they've got 20.3%.
#2 AZOOMIN COWBOY — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 20.4%, they've got 11.6%.
#1 HOLLIEWOOD — our #3 number, a price play — we're at 16.0%, the board 9.0%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#6 THE COWBOY CHICK — we make it 32.1%, the morning line works out to 20.3%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#2 AZOOMIN COWBOY — we make it 20.4%, the morning line works out to 11.6%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Longshot the model rates above its line: #7 SOUTHARD LEGEND (10-1) — our fair 13.6% is above the morning line's 7.4%; supported by: top barn (35%) + jockey (33%) at 10-1 (a hot trainer-jockey pairing; on our own re-test it did not beat its odds)

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Holliewood, #2 Azoomin Cowboy, #3 Jk Double Trouble.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Holliewood2Azoomin Cowboy3Jk Double Trouble4Wf Tuff As Diamonds5Emerald Bay6The Cowboy Chick7Southard Legend8Shannons Dynasty

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Shannons Dynasty

Holliewood

Azoomin Cowboy

Jk Double Trouble

Wf Tuff As Diamonds

Emerald Bay

The Cowboy Chick

Southard Legend

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Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

$2 EXACTA / (.50) TRIFECTA / (.10) SUPERFECTA / $2 DAILY DOUBLE

(.50) PICK 3 (RACES 2-3-4)

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