Pick sheet

Race 63:05 PM Trial

1.8F · Dirt · 9 entered. Our model's top pick, Apollitikal Dreamer, is 36% to win (morning line implies 27%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #3 Apollitikal Dreamer ML 2-1 Fair 9-5 Model #1 ► Steady ≡ Steady 84–90

Jockey R. Garcia · Trainer J. Olmstead · KEE 1: 1-0-0 · Dist 6: 4-1-1 · 48 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/14	WRD	1.59091f D	sFutTrl5000	Won/8	88	0.1-1	b L	Bmp st;duel;prevailed
7/4	PRM	1.59091f D	PRMGoldFut264k	Won/10	90	0.6-1	b LB	Vied; held on
6/15	PRM	1.59091f D	FutTrl8000	Won/8	88	0.2-1	b LB	Clear throughout

Case: Last out won in the sFutTrl5000 at WRD. Last Brisnet figures 88-90-88. 4-for-6 at the distance. 1-for-1 at Will Rogers Downs. J. Olmstead / R. Garcia.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1.59091f).

Contender #5 Hardtohock ML 3-1 Fair 7-2 Model #2 ► Steady ↕ Up and down 75–98

Jockey B. Candanosa · Trainer S. Mendoza · KEE 2: 2-0-0 · Dist 6: 2-1-0 · 15 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	ALB	1.59091f D	AQHAJuvG2 G2	5th/10 -¾L	90	1.0-1	b	Weakened
9/28	WRD	1.59091f D	WRDJuvChal30k	Won/10	98	0.7-1	b	Quick move;drew clear
9/15	WRD	1.59091f D	FutTrl5000	Won/9	91	2.2-1	b	Took command;drew away

Case: Last out 5th/10 -¾L in the AQHAJuvG2-G2 at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 90-98-91. 2-for-6 at the distance. 2-for-2 at Will Rogers Downs. S. Mendoza / B. Candanosa.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1.59091f).

Use #6 Henry Standing Bear ML 4-1 Fair 7-1 Model #3 ▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best ↕ Up and down 63–88 Last out 2nd in the MdSpWt at WRD. Last Brisnet figures 88-87-63. Best at today's distance 63. 0-for-5 at the distance. 0-for-2 at Will Rogers Downs. J. Davis / E. Escobedo. Knock: 0-for-5 at the distance. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey E. Escobedo · Trainer J. Davis · KEE 2: 0-2-0 · Dist 5: 0-2-0 · best fig at 1.81818f dirt 63 · 19 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/13	WRD	1.59091f D	MSW	2nd/8 -½L	88	1.1-1	b L	Closed late;held 2nd
9/27	WRD	1.59091f D	MSW	2nd/10 -1L	87	16-1	b L	Late surge;missed
6/27	ALB	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	8th/9 -4¼L	63	22-1	b L	Outrun

Narrowing the field: A #3, #5, #9 · B #1, #6, #7 · C #2, #4, #8

R6 WRD · Trial

3:05 PM ET · 400 Yards Dirt · $5,000 · 9 runners3:05 PM · 1.8f Dirt · 9 runners

Official $5,000 · Trial

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Aj ImperiumRan 7thA. Alvidrez · J. OlmsteadAlvidrez · OlmsteadB87 79 82▲▲+86-1Fair 8-110%▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best87 79 82B

Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · Last 3 figs 87 79 82

Jockey Armando Alvidrez 28% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jason L Olmstead 35% career 3-for-59 on dirt this meet (5%)

Also today · Jockey R2: The Cowboy Chick 3-1, R3: Corona Downhill 4-1, R4: Uncle Redheads 4-1, R8: Lonestar Jess 15-1 +2 more · Trainer R2: Holliewood 8-1, R2: The Cowboy Chick 3-1, R2: Southard Legend 10-1, R3: Political Spin 6-1 +25 more

WON LAST

Winner of a 9-horse maiden special weight race at PRM last time. Class relief: maiden special weight last time, stakes nongraded today.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 241 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/12	PRM	1.36364f D	MSW	Won/9 by 1	87	5.6-1	b LB	Edged ahead;held firm
8/10	PRM	1.13636f D	MSW	5th/8 -¾L	79	5.8-1	b LB	Evenly; no kick
7/19	PRM	1.36364f D	MSW	2nd/6 -1L	82	21-1	b LB	Second best

2Duty CallzRan 8thJ. Soto · J. OlmsteadSoto · OlmsteadC7420-1Fair 50-12%—74C
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 74
Jockey Jhaciel Soto 26% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jason L Olmstead 35% career 3-for-59 on dirt this meet (5%)
Also today · Jockey R3: Political Spin 6-1, R4: Relentless Wine 10-1, R5: Kissin Lane Lo 3-1, R7: Urban Cowboy 123 4-1 +3 more · Trainer R2: Holliewood 8-1, R2: The Cowboy Chick 3-1, R2: Southard Legend 10-1, R3: Political Spin 6-1 +25 more
Was running in maiden special weight; today's stakes nongraded is an easier level on paper. Worked 1F in :11.40 on Oct 6, 2nd of 14 at the distance.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 26d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/20 WRD 1.36364f D MSW 8th/8 -4L 74 17-1 b L Off slow;no factor

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/20	WRD	1.36364f D	MSW	8th/8 -4L	74	17-1	b L	Off slow;no factor

3Apollitikal DreamerRan 1stR. Garcia · J. OlmsteadGarcia · OlmsteadA88 90 88►≡2-1Fair 9-536%► Steady88 90 88 ≡A1

Card model 36% · Fair odds 9-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 84–90 · Last 3 figs 88 90 88

Jockey Ramiro Haro Garcia 33% career 6-for-47 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Jason L Olmstead 35% career 3-for-59 on dirt this meet (5%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Southard Legend 10-1, R3: Tux Hard Shop 15-1, R4: Famous N Relentless 2-1, R5: Tymetogojoe 4-1 +5 more · Trainer R2: Holliewood 8-1, R2: The Cowboy Chick 3-1, R2: Southard Legend 10-1, R3: Political Spin 6-1 +25 more

★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

Has won 4 of 6 going today's distance. Comes in off a victory in an 8-horse stakes race at WRD.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS SHARP 1f in :11.80 on Feb 21 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/14	WRD	1.59091f D	sFutTrl5000	Won/8	88	0.1-1	b L	Bmp st;duel;prevailed
7/4	PRM	1.59091f D	PRMGoldFut264k	Won/10	90	0.6-1	b LB	Vied; held on
6/15	PRM	1.59091f D	FutTrl8000	Won/8	88	0.2-1	b LB	Clear throughout

4Quit Kissin My HocksRan 5thF. Ramirez Jr. · J. OlmsteadRamirez Jr. · OlmsteadC64 85 81▼▼-1615-1Fair 30-14%▼▼ Big drop -1664 85 81C

Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -16 · Last 3 figs 64 85 81

Jockey Francisco Raul Jr Ramirez 33% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jason L Olmstead 35% career 3-for-59 on dirt this meet (5%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Holliewood 8-1, R4: Atsi Monday 3-1, R5: Aj Wine Wagon 6-1, R7: Aj Time To Fly 15-1 +1 more · Trainer R2: Holliewood 8-1, R2: The Cowboy Chick 3-1, R2: Southard Legend 10-1, R3: Political Spin 6-1 +25 more

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE

Jockey switch: Ramiro Haro Garcia last out, Francisco Raul Jr Ramirez today. A big drop, allowance to stakes nongraded, and worth asking why.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Shut off at start), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 234d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	WRD	1½f D	Alw n2l	9th/9 -5¾L	64	12-1	b L	Shut off at start
9/14	WRD	1.59091f D	sFutTrl5000	3rd/8 -1¼L	85	10-1	b L	Closed well;held 3rd
8/2	PRM	1.59091f D	Alw n2l	3rd/5 -2L	81	6.3-1	b LB	Stumbled start

5HardtohockRan 2ndB. Candanosa · S. MendozaCandanosa · MendozaA90 98 91►↕3-1Fair 7-222%► Steady90 98 91 ↕A2

Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 75–98 · Last 3 figs 90 98 91

Jockey Bryan Candanosa 36% career 4-for-21 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Samuel Mendoza 32% career ★ 5-for-25 on dirt this meet (20%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R5: Strive 10-1, R8: Senor Quintero Lo 4-1, R11: Naidu 7-2 · Trainer R8: Senor Quintero Lo 4-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 98, with 93 next best. Purse drops from $154,750 to $5,000 against its last start.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1F on Mar 20; 0 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	ALB	1.59091f D	AQHAJuvG2 G2	5th/10 -¾L	90	1.0-1	b	Weakened
9/28	WRD	1.59091f D	WRDJuvChal30k	Won/10	98	0.7-1	b	Quick move;drew clear
9/15	WRD	1.59091f D	FutTrl5000	Won/9	91	2.2-1	b	Took command;drew away

6Henry Standing BearRan 3rdE. Escobedo · J. DavisEscobedo · DavisB88 87 63▲▲+14↕@trip 634-1Fair 7-113%▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best88 87 63 ↕@trip 63B3

Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 63–88 · Best fig at today's trip 63 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 88 87 63

Jockey Edwin G Escobedo 36% career 7-for-53 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Joe M Davis 33% career 5-for-33 on dirt this meet (15%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Shannons Dynasty 12-1, R4: Valiant Geronimo 15-1, R5: Dulces Fire Z 2-1, R7: Ts Cyber Flash 3-1 +3 more · Trainer R5: Dulces Fire Z 2-1, R8: Cyber Hostage 2-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Figures are climbing: 63, 87, 88 over its last three. Posted the fastest 1F work of the morning on Aug 1, in :11.60.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1F on Aug 1; 0 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/13	WRD	1.59091f D	MSW	2nd/8 -½L	88	1.1-1	b L	Closed late;held 2nd
9/27	WRD	1.59091f D	MSW	2nd/10 -1L	87	16-1	b L	Late surge;missed
6/27	ALB	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	8th/9 -4¼L	63	22-1	b L	Outrun

7Sinful GemRan 6thC. Smith · M. HurdleSmith · HurdleB88 66 77▲▲+1615-1Fair 50-12%▲▲ Big jump +16 · career best88 66 77B

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +16 · career best · Last 3 figs 88 66 77

Jockey Cody Rodger Smith 31% career 9-for-89 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Michelle Hurdle 28% career 6-for-32 on dirt this meet (19%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Make It Country 6-1, R4: Mr Booombastic 8-1, R9: Painted Smoke Wagon 10-1, R10: Juncture 12-1 · Trainer R1: Make It Country 6-1

Off 48 days since the last start. Last out was 5th, 1¾ lengths behind the winner, in a 9-horse stakes race at WRD.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 68 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/14	WRD	1.59091f D	sFutTrl5000	5th/9 -1¾L	88	21-1	b L	Step slow;evenly late
5/7	RP	1.59091f D	FutTrl15000	6th/7 -4½L	66	17-1	b L	Brk in;lackd a bid
4/10	RP	1.59091f D	sMdSpWt	4th/9 by nk	77	11-1	b L	Sidexside all the way

8ShaynificentRan 9thJ. Torres · G. ValdiviaTorres · ValdiviaC79 6420-1Fair 99-11%—79 64C
Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 79 64
Jockey Jorge Torres 32% career 2-for-15 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Guillermo Valdivia 29% career 4-for-24 on dirt this meet (17%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Lupita Silos 8-1, R3: Bernina Express 15-1, R10: Tell Em Im Busy 20-1, R11: Chuys Girl 20-1 · Trainer R11: Naidu 7-2
Gets a new rider, Jorge Torres replacing Francisco Calderon. A 48-day gap since its last race.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
TROUBLED TRIP Hopped st; flattened last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 61 days ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/14 WRD 1.59091f D sFutTrl5000 6th/8 -1¼L 79 28-1 b L Hopped st;flattened
4/2 RP 1½f D sFutTrl15000 7th/8 -4¼L 64 30-1 b L Minor menace

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/14	WRD	1.59091f D	sFutTrl5000	6th/8 -1¼L	79	28-1	b L	Hopped st;flattened
4/2	RP	1½f D	sFutTrl15000	7th/8 -4¼L	64	30-1	b L	Minor menace

9MannfrediRan 4thM. Delgado · J. JoinerDelgado · JoinerA93 80 87▲▲+14↕8-1Fair 10-19%▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best93 80 87 ↕A

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 71–93 · Last 3 figs 93 80 87

Jockey Mario Delgado 32% career 12-for-84 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Justin W Joiner 32% career 4-for-22 on dirt this meet (18%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Vf Zip N Run 10-1, R3: Maverykk 5-1, R7: Another Rownd 20-1, R8: Bv Wanta B A Cowboy 15-1 +1 more · Trainer R3: Maverykk 5-1, R8: Bv Wanta B A Cowboy 15-1

Drops from allowance to stakes nongraded. 2nd of 47 at 1.1F on Feb 20, in :12.60.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 68d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/5	WRD	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	2nd/9 -2L	93	2.6-1	b L	Rallied;vied late;game
9/14	WRD	1.59091f D	sFutTrl5000	5th/8 -3¾L	80	6.6-1	b L	Off slow;traffic late
5/23	RP	1½f D	sMdSpWt	Won/9	87	1.6-1	b L	First2fire;first2wire

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #3 Apollitikal Dreamer, won.

1st3Apollitikal DreamerWin$7.20Place$3.20Show$2.60Our #1

2nd5HardtohockWin—Place$2.60Show$2.20Our #2

3rd6Henry Standing BearWin—Place—Show$3.60Our #3

4th9MannfrediOur #5

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

WRD · RACE 6

OFFICIAL

Trial

Field

9 runners

Purse

$5,000

Post

3:05 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#3 · 36%

Stakes, for colts and geldings, 2-year-olds.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 400 Yards: 19.42

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #3 Apollitikal Dreamer (a tactical type, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 88 · 90 · 88. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #5 Hardtohock at 3-1. Use #6 Henry Standing Bear in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · WON

Top pick Apollitikal Dreamer won

What worked

✓ Top pick in the money (1st)
✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #1)
✓ Our top 3 finished 1st, 2nd, 3rd

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#3 APOLLITIKAL DREAMER	1st
#2	#5 HARDTOHOCK	2nd
#3	#6 HENRY STANDING BEAR	3rd
#4	#1 AJ IMPERIUM	7th
#5	#9 MANNFREDI	4th

Actual finish

1st	#3 Apollitikal Dreamer	our #1
2nd	#5 Hardtohock	our #2
3rd	#6 Henry Standing Bear	our #3
4th	#9 Mannfredi	our #5
5th	#4 Quit Kissin My Hocks	our #6

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #3 APOLLITIKAL DREAMER (2-1) — our number agrees.
#3 APOLLITIKAL DREAMER — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (28.3% to their 26.5%).
#5 HARDTOHOCK — our #2 number, about right at the windows (21.5% to their 19.9%).
#6 HENRY STANDING BEAR — our #3 number, about right at the windows (15.1% to their 15.9%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Aj Imperium, #2 Duty Callz, #3 Apollitikal Dreamer.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Aj Imperium2Duty Callz3Apollitikal Dreamer4Quit Kissin My Hocks5Hardtohock6Henry Standing Bear7Sinful Gem8Shaynificent9Mannfredi

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Aj Imperium

Duty Callz

Apollitikal Dreamer

Quit Kissin My Hocks

Hardtohock

Henry Standing Bear

Sinful Gem

Shaynificent

Mannfredi

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Bet types

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(.50) PICK 3 (RACES 6-7-8)

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