Pick sheet

Race 94:20 PM Trial

1.8F · Dirt · 9 entered. Our model's top pick, Valiant Sass, is 34% to win (morning line implies 28%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #4 Valiant Sass ML 2-1 Fair 2-1 Model #1 Top last-race fig ▲ Up +7 · career best

Jockey R. Cruz · Trainer D. Keener · KEE 1: 1-0-0 · Dist 6: 2-2-0 · 48 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/14	WRD	1.59091f D	sFutTrl5000	Won/8	88	1.0-1	b L	Shook free;dug in late
8/7	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	2nd/8 -1L	87	6.3-1	b L	Dueled; just missed;
6/26	ALB	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	9th/9 -18L	—	1.2-1	b L	Eased; walked off

Case: Last out won in the sFutTrl5000 at WRD. Last Brisnet figures 88-87. 2-for-6 at the distance. 1-for-1 at Will Rogers Downs. D. Keener / R. Cruz.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #2 Brooks Jess Hockn ML 3-1 Fair 3-1 Model #2 ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best ★ Best at 1.81818f dirt: 84

Jockey J. Soto · Trainer J. Olmstead · KEE 2: 0-1-1 · Dist 7: 1-2-1 · best fig at 1.81818f dirt 84 · 20 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	WRD	1½f D	Alw n2l	2nd/9 -1L	87	7.2-1	b L	Outkicked;held for 2nd
9/14	WRD	1.59091f D	sFutTrl5000	3rd/8 -1¾L	85	9.5-1	b L	Step slow;gaining late
8/14	ALB	1.81818f D	MSW	Won/10	84	3.2-1	b L	Speed; driving

Case: Last out 2nd in the Alw20900n2l at WRD. Last Brisnet figures 87-85-84. Best at today's distance 84. 1-for-7 at the distance. 0-for-2 at Will Rogers Downs. J. Olmstead / J. Soto.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Use #7 Ghirardelli Dark ML 5-1 Fair 10-1 Model #3 ▼▼ Big drop -16 Last out 4th/7 -2¾L in the FutTrl8000 at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 67-88-81. Best at today's distance 81. 1-for-5 at the distance. T. Crawford / E. Escobedo. Knock: Never raced at Will Rogers Downs. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey E. Escobedo · Trainer T. Crawford · Dist 5: 1-1-0 · best fig at 1.81818f dirt 81 · 37 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	ALB	1.81818f D	FutTrl8000	4th/7 -2¾L	67	4.0-1	b L	Best of others;
8/8	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	5th/10 -1¼L	88	7.8-1	b L	Even effort;
6/27	ALB	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	2nd/10 -1L	81	10-1	b L	Chased; no match

Longshot #9 Kool Trick ML 12-1 Fair 12-1 Model #5 ► Steady

Jockey R. Garcia · Trainer J. Olmstead · KEE 1: 0-0-0 · Dist 5: 0-0-1 · 19 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/13	WRD	1.59091f D	MSW	5th/8 -4L	72	16-1	b L	Lugged in;no rally
9/6	PRM	1.59091f D	FutTrl8000	5th/8 -3¾L	67	59-1	b LB	Needed more
7/5	PRM	1½f D	MSW	3rd/9 by nk	81	33-1	b LB	Even finish

Case: Last out 5th/8 -4L in the MdSpWt at WRD. Last Brisnet figures 72-67-81. 0-for-5 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Will Rogers Downs. J. Olmstead / R. Garcia.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1.59091f). 0-for-5 at the distance.

Narrowing the field: A #2, #4, #7 · B #1, #6, #9 · C #3, #5, #8

R9 WRD · Trial

4:20 PM ET · 400 Yards Dirt · $5,000 · 9 runners4:20 PM · 1.8f Dirt · 9 runners

Official $5,000 · Trial

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Hez Out For BloodRan 3rdA. Alvidrez · J. OlmsteadAlvidrez · OlmsteadB71 80 79▼-78-1Fair 10-19%▼ Down -771 80 79B

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -7 · Last 3 figs 71 80 79

Jockey Armando Alvidrez 28% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jason L Olmstead 35% career 3-for-59 on dirt this meet (5%)

Also today · Jockey R2: The Cowboy Chick 3-1, R3: Corona Downhill 4-1, R4: Uncle Redheads 4-1, R6: Aj Imperium 6-1 +2 more · Trainer R2: Holliewood 8-1, R2: The Cowboy Chick 3-1, R2: Southard Legend 10-1, R3: Political Spin 6-1 +25 more

Class relief: stakes last time, stakes nongraded today. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 14d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/6	PRM	1.59091f D	FutTrl8000	7th/9 -3L	71	13-1	b LB	Failed to threaten
8/16	PRM	1½f D	MSW	2nd/9 -2L	80	1.9-1	b LB	Gaining fast
7/5	PRM	1½f D	MSW	5th/9 -1¼L	79	3.5-1	b LB	Bumped with foe early

2Brooks Jess Hockn★Ran 1stJ. Soto · J. OlmsteadSoto · OlmsteadA87 85 84▲▲+8@trip 843-1Fair 3-124%▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best87 85 84@trip 84A★ Best at the trip 842

Card model 24% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 84 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 87 85 84

★ Best at the trip 84

Jockey Jhaciel Soto 26% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jason L Olmstead 35% career 3-for-59 on dirt this meet (5%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Political Spin 6-1, R4: Relentless Wine 10-1, R5: Kissin Lane Lo 3-1, R6: Duty Callz 20-1 +3 more · Trainer R2: Holliewood 8-1, R2: The Cowboy Chick 3-1, R2: Southard Legend 10-1, R3: Political Spin 6-1 +25 more

Beaten 1 length for 2nd in a 9-horse allowance race at WRD. Was running in allowance; today's stakes nongraded is an easier level on paper.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 105d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	WRD	1½f D	Alw n2l	2nd/9 -1L	87	7.2-1	b L	Outkicked;held for 2nd
9/14	WRD	1.59091f D	sFutTrl5000	3rd/8 -1¾L	85	9.5-1	b L	Step slow;gaining late
8/14	ALB	1.81818f D	MSW	Won/10	84	3.2-1	b L	Speed; driving

3Cara Cortada 727Ran 8thC. Benn · L. ChaviraBenn · ChaviraC74 71 60▲+520-1Fair 50-12%▲ Up +574 71 60C

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +5 · Last 3 figs 74 71 60

Jockey Cordarelton J Benn 35% career 12-for-90 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Luz Chavira 34% career 2-for-31 on dirt this meet (6%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Lil Kool Wink 15-1, R3: Paint That Dynasty 15-1, R8: Besame El Polvo 20-1, R11: Striking Storm 4-1 · Trainer R11: Striking Storm 4-1

Figures are climbing: 60, 71, 74 over its last three. Gets a new rider, Cordarelton J Benn replacing Francisco Quintero.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 78d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/6	WRD	1.13636f D	MSW	8th/9 -5½L	74	93-1	b L	Slow into stride
9/15	WRD	1.36364f D	sMdSpWt	10th/10 -4½L	71	103-1	b L	In tight btw start
7/19	FMT	1.59091f D	sMdSpWt	5th/8 -2¼L	60	11-1	b L	Brk forward;no punch

4Valiant SassRan 2ndR. Cruz · D. KeenerCruz · KeenerA88 87 81▲+72-1Fair 2-134%▲ Up +7 · career best88 87 81A1

Card model 34% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +7 · career best · Last 3 figs 88 87 81

Jockey Roman Cruz 33% career ★ 25-for-111 on dirt this meet (23%), #3 of 33 · Trainer Dee Keener 35% career ★ 7-for-34 on dirt this meet (21%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Emerald Bay 2-1, R3: I Am A Candy Tree 2-1, R5: Echos Of Cowboy 20-1, R10: Dos Grandiose 6-1 +1 more · Trainer R2: Emerald Bay 2-1, R3: Bernina Express 15-1, R10: Dos Grandiose 6-1

WON LAST

Tops the field on speed figures, an 88 against 87 for the next best. Comes in off a victory in an 8-horse stakes race at WRD.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 61d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/14	WRD	1.59091f D	sFutTrl5000	Won/8	88	1.0-1	b L	Shook free;dug in late
8/7	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	2nd/8 -1L	87	6.3-1	b L	Dueled; just missed;
6/26	ALB	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	9th/9 -18L	—	1.2-1	b L	Eased; walked off

5KornegayRan 7thR. Vega · L. VillafrancoVega · VillafrancoC69 80 64▼-415-1Fair 50-12%▼ Down -469 80 64C

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -4 · Last 3 figs 69 80 64

Jockey Randy Vega 27% career 2-for-54 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer Luis Villafranco 27% career 1-for-29 on dirt this meet (3%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Squeakies Toy 20-1, R4: Pyc Dynasty 12-1 · Trainer R1: Squeakies Toy 20-1

0 for 9 at today's distance. Drops from maiden special weight to stakes nongraded.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 69 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	WRD	1.59091f D	sMdSpWt	7th/8 -2¾L	69	37-1	b L	Off slow;no threat
9/28	WRD	1.13636f D	sMdSpWt	8th/9 -4¼L	80	58-1	b L	Lugged in;no threat
9/14	WRD	1.59091f D	sFutTrl5000	DNF	—	—	b L	Declared non-starter

6Bad N BourgeoisieRan 5thG. Gutierrez · K. WillisGutierrez · WillisB85 60 68▲▲+18↕15-1Fair 20-15%▲▲ Big jump +18 · career best85 60 68 ↕B

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +18 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 60–85 · Last 3 figs 85 60 68

Jockey Gonzalo Gutierrez 32% career 4-for-81 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Kasey Willis 35% career 3-for-18 on dirt this meet (17%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Vf Party Girl 12-1, R4: Vaquero 123 20-1, R10: D Amor 15-1, R11: Pyc Wicked Fun 15-1 · Trainer R10: D Amor 15-1

60D LAYOFFLASIX 1STWON LAST

Won last out in a 4-horse maiden special weight race at SRR. Off 72 days since the last start.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 24d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/21	SRR	1.36364f D	MSW	Won/4	85	2.4-1	b	Up late for win
7/3	FMT	1.59091f D	FutTrl5000	6th/7 -3½L	60	48-1	b L	Off pace;no threat
6/20	FMT	1.59091f D	MSW	8th/9 -5½L	68	33-1	b L	On heels;gave way

7Ghirardelli DarkRan 9thE. Escobedo · T. CrawfordEscobedo · CrawfordA67 88 81▼▼-16@trip 815-1Fair 10-19%▼▼ Big drop -1667 88 81@trip 81A3

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -16 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 88 81

Jockey Edwin G Escobedo 36% career 7-for-53 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Tyler Cole Crawford 28% career 0-for-26 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Shannons Dynasty 12-1, R4: Valiant Geronimo 15-1, R5: Dulces Fire Z 2-1, R6: Henry Standing Bear 4-1 +3 more · Trainer R10: Kiss Me Good Bi 20-1

New trainer: Renee Wilson had it last time, Tyler Cole Crawford now. Owns the highest recent figure here at 88.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 214 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	ALB	1.81818f D	FutTrl8000	4th/7 -2¾L	67	4.0-1	b L	Best of others;
8/8	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	5th/10 -1¼L	88	7.8-1	b L	Even effort;
6/27	ALB	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	2nd/10 -1L	81	10-1	b L	Chased; no match

8Painted Smoke WagonRan 6thC. Smith · S. ValdiviaSmith · ValdiviaC77 75 66▲+610-1Fair 15-17%▲ Up +6 · career best77 75 66C

Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +6 · career best · Last 3 figs 77 75 66

Jockey Cody Rodger Smith 31% career 9-for-89 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Samuel E Valdivia 29% career 11-for-59 on dirt this meet (19%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Make It Country 6-1, R4: Mr Booombastic 8-1, R6: Sinful Gem 15-1, R10: Juncture 12-1 · Trainer R7: Another Rownd 20-1, R10: Juncture 12-1, R11: Ss First Down Fancy 5-2

Has moved up each time out, 66 to 75 to 77. Cody Rodger Smith takes over from Roman Cruz in the saddle.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 15d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/14	WRD	1.59091f D	MSW	2nd/10 -1½L	77	6.0-1	b L	Chased;drifted in late
8/28	SRR	1.13636f D	MSW	2nd/5 by hd	75	4.6-1	b	Game 2nd
8/19	SRR	1.59091f D	FutTrl10000	9th/10 -3½L	66	38-1	b	Bmpd hard st

9Kool TrickLSRan 4thR. Garcia · J. OlmsteadGarcia · OlmsteadB72 67 81►12-1Fair 12-17%► Steady72 67 81BLS
Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 72 67 81
LS
Longshot read: 12-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 7% against a line of 6%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Ramiro Haro Garcia 33% career 6-for-47 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Jason L Olmstead 35% career 3-for-59 on dirt this meet (5%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R2: Southard Legend 10-1, R3: Tux Hard Shop 15-1, R4: Famous N Relentless 2-1, R5: Tymetogojoe 4-1 +5 more · Trainer R2: Holliewood 8-1, R2: The Cowboy Chick 3-1, R2: Southard Legend 10-1, R3: Political Spin 6-1 +25 more
A big drop, maiden special weight to stakes nongraded, and worth asking why. Worked 1F in :11.60 on Aug 17, 2nd of 9 at the distance.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Lugged in; no rally), and the figure already reflects it.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 76 days ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/13 WRD 1.59091f D MSW 5th/8 -4L 72 16-1 b L Lugged in;no rally
9/6 PRM 1.59091f D FutTrl8000 5th/8 -3¾L 67 59-1 b LB Needed more
7/5 PRM 1½f D MSW 3rd/9 by nk 81 33-1 b LB Even finish

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #4 Valiant Sass, finished 2nd.

1st2Brooks Jess HocknWin$6.80Place$2.60Show$2.10Our #2

2nd4Valiant SassWin—Place$2.20Show$2.10Our #1

3rd1Hez Out For BloodWin—Place—Show$3.20Our #4

4th9Kool TrickOur #5

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

WRD · RACE 9

OFFICIAL

Trial

Field

9 runners

Purse

$5,000

Post

4:20 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#4 · 34%

Stakes, for colts and geldings, 2-year-olds.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 400 Yards: 19.42

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #4 Valiant Sass (a tactical type, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 88 · 87. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #2 Brooks Jess Hockn at 3-1. Use #7 Ghirardelli Dark in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · 2ND

Top pick Valiant Sass ran 2nd · Brooks Jess Hockn won (our #2)

What worked

✓ Top pick in the money (2nd)
✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #2)
✓ Our top 3 finished 2nd, 1st, 9th

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#4 VALIANT SASS	2nd
#2	#2 BROOKS JESS HOCKN	1st
#3	#7 GHIRARDELLI DARK	9th
#4	#1 HEZ OUT FOR BLOOD	3rd
#5	#9 KOOL TRICK	4th

Actual finish

1st	#2 Brooks Jess Hockn	our #2
2nd	#4 Valiant Sass	our #1
3rd	#1 Hez Out for Blood	our #4
4th	#9 Kool Trick	our #5
5th	#6 Bad N Bourgeoisie	our #7

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #4 VALIANT SASS (2-1) — our number agrees.
#4 VALIANT SASS — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (28.9% to their 27.7%).
#2 BROOKS JESS HOCKN — our #2 number, about right at the windows (22.4% to their 20.8%).
#7 GHIRARDELLI DARK — our #3 number, about right at the windows (12.4% to their 13.9%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Hez Out For Blood, #2 Brooks Jess Hockn, #3 Cara Cortada 727.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Hez Out For Blood2Brooks Jess Hockn3Cara Cortada 7274Valiant Sass5Kornegay6Bad N Bourgeoisie7Ghirardelli Dark8Painted Smoke Wagon9Kool Trick

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Hez Out For Blood

Brooks Jess Hockn

Cara Cortada 727

Valiant Sass

Kornegay

Bad N Bourgeoisie

Ghirardelli Dark

Painted Smoke Wagon

Kool Trick

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Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

$2 EXACTA / (.50) TRIFECTA / (.10) SUPERFECTA / $2 DAILY DOUBLE

(.50) PICK 3 (RACES 9-10-11)

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