Pick sheet

Race 11:00 PM Alw 20900n2l

1.6F · Dirt · 7 entered. Our model's top pick, Electrifying, is 29% to win (morning line implies 28%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #2 Electrifying ML 2-1 Fair 5-2 Model #1 ▼ Down -5 ≡ Steady 83–92

Jockey M. Delgado · Trainer J. Joiner · KEE 6: 0-2-2 · Dist 10: 1-3-2 · best fig at 1.59091f dirt 92 · 28 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/5	WRD	2f D	DbyTrl 5000	6th/9 -3L	83	9.4-1	b L	Off slow;no late kick
9/21	WRD	1.59091f D	sAlw20900n2l	2nd/8 -1½L	87	1.2-1	b L	Bmpd st;bid;good try
5/2	RP	1.59091f D	Alw n2l	2nd/9	86	4.1-1	b L	Nosed out at wire

Case: Last out 6th/9 -3L in the fDbyTrl 5000 at WRD. Last Brisnet figures 83-87-86. Best at today's distance 92. 1-for-10 at the distance. 0-for-6 at Will Rogers Downs. J. Joiner / M. Delgado.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #4 Tres a Blood ML 3-1 Fair 7-2 Model #2 ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best

Jockey C. Esqueda · Trainer E. Hardy · KEE 1: 0-0-1 · Dist 14: 1-3-3 · best fig at 1.59091f dirt 83 · 20 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/13	WRD	1.36364f D	sAlw20900n2l	3rd/7 -1L	90	6.2-1	b L	Outfinished for 2nd
9/18	PRM	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	2nd/7 -1½L	81	2.4-1	b LB	Second best
8/22	PRM	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	3rd/7 -¾L	84	3.3-1	b LB	Edged closer

Case: Last out 3rd in the sAlw20900n2l at WRD. Last Brisnet figures 90-81-84. Best at today's distance 83. 1-for-14 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Will Rogers Downs. E. Hardy / C. Esqueda.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Use #3 Arock ML 5-1 Fair 6-1 Model #3 ► Steady Last out 4th/7 -1¾L in the sAlw20900n2l at WRD. Last Brisnet figures 89-94-88. Best at today's distance 83. 1-for-5 at the distance. 1-for-2 at Will Rogers Downs. S. Capps / C. Smith. Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Jockey C. Smith · Trainer S. Capps · KEE 2: 1-0-0 · Dist 5: 1-1-0 · best fig at 1.59091f dirt 83 · 20 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/13	WRD	1.36364f D	sAlw20900n2l	4th/7 -1¾L	89	1.1-1	L	Chased;gaining late
9/22	WRD	1.36364f D	sMdSpWt	Won/10	94	0.6-1	L	Bmpd st;vied;dug in
6/27	FMT	1.36364f D	sMdSpWt	2nd/10 by hd	88	2.7-1	b L	Dueled;outfinished

★ Distance horse: #6 Fly N Cowgirl (6-1) has the best figure in the field at 1.59091f dirt: 97 from 5 tries, record at the distance 7: 1-0-3. Not one of our picks.

Narrowing the field: A #4, #5, #6 · B #2, #3, #7 · C #1

R1 WRD · State-Bred Allowance · $20,900 purse

1:00 PM ET · 350 Yards Dirt · $20,900 · 7 runners1:00 PM · 1.6f Dirt · 7 runners

Upcoming $21K · State-Bred Allowance · $20,900 purse

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #6 Fly N Cowgirl (6-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 97 from 5 tries. Not in our top three.

1Z RexxF. Fonseca-Soto · H. HobbsFonseca-Soto · HobbsC74 88 79▼-6@trip 8410-1Fair 20-15%▼ Down -674 88 79@trip 84C

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -6 · Best fig at today's trip 84 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 88 79

Jockey Fernando Fonseca-Soto 28% career 1-for-29 on dirt this meet (3%) · Trainer Haley N Hobbs 27% career 2-for-34 on dirt this meet (6%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Firstdownfamous Racy 30-1

Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field. Beaten 1 length for 6th in a 7-horse $25,000 claiming race at WRD.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 240d ago)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	WRD	1.59091f D	Clm 25k n2l	6th/7 -1L	74	1.6-1	b L	Crowded st;flattened
9/22	WRD	2f D	Alw n2l	4th/10 -¾L	88	17-1	b L	No final kick;mssd 3rd
8/7	PRM	1.59091f D	MSW	Won/9 by ½	79	9.9-1	b LB	Up late

2ElectrifyingM. Delgado · J. JoinerDelgado · JoinerB83 87 86▼-5≡@trip 922-1Fair 5-229%▼ Down -583 87 86 ≡@trip 92B1

Card model 29% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -5 · ≡ Steady figures 83–92 · Best fig at today's trip 92 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 83 87 86

Jockey Mario Delgado 32% career 13-for-90 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Justin W Joiner 32% career ★ 5-for-25 on dirt this meet (20%)

Also today · Jockey R4: Whoopsy 20-1, R6: Leaf On The Wind 5-1, R7: Penelope Cruisin 15-1, R8: A Painted Fling 2-1 +2 more · Trainer R4: Whoopsy 20-1, R6: Sheza Candy Wagon 20-1, R8: A Painted Fling 2-1, R9: Wr Hott Train 20-1 +1 more

4/6 board here

Purse goes from $5,000 to $20,900, a step up. Finished 6th in a 9-horse race at WRD, beaten 3 lengths.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 95d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 4 on the board from 6 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/5	WRD	2f D	DbyTrl 5000	6th/9 -3L	83	9.4-1	b L	Off slow;no late kick
9/21	WRD	1.59091f D	sAlw20900n2l	2nd/8 -1½L	87	1.2-1	b L	Bmpd st;bid;good try
5/2	RP	1.59091f D	Alw n2l	2nd/9	86	4.1-1	b L	Nosed out at wire

3ArockC. Smith · S. CappsSmith · CappsB89 94 88►@trip 835-1Fair 6-115%► Steady89 94 88@trip 83B3

Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 83 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 89 94 88

Jockey Cody Rodger Smith 31% career 9-for-94 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Stacey Capps 28% career 8-for-46 on dirt this meet (17%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Sweet Lorali 2-1, R4: Graceious 15-1, R6: Tossin Back Time 20-1, R8: Remember Thiz Kiss 4-1 +1 more · Trainer R2: Sweet Lorali 2-1, R5: Southard Kisses 15-1, R10: Relentless Ruth 3-1

2nd of 73 at 1.1F on Mar 4, in :13.40. 4th last time, 1¾ lengths back, in a field of 7.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 60d ago)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/13	WRD	1.36364f D	sAlw20900n2l	4th/7 -1¾L	89	1.1-1	L	Chased;gaining late
9/22	WRD	1.36364f D	sMdSpWt	Won/10	94	0.6-1	L	Bmpd st;vied;dug in
6/27	FMT	1.36364f D	sMdSpWt	2nd/10 by hd	88	2.7-1	b L	Dueled;outfinished

4Tres a BloodC. Esqueda · E. HardyEsqueda · HardyA90 81 84▲▲+9@trip 833-1Fair 7-222%▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best90 81 84@trip 83A2

Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 83 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 90 81 84

Jockey Christian Esqueda 29% career 3-for-47 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Edward Ross Hardy 32% career 3-for-11 on dirt this meet (27%), #3 of 46

Also today · Jockey R9: Kj Wild Lily 20-1

Jockey switch: Angel O Ramirez last out, Christian Esqueda today. Posted the fastest 1.1F work of the morning on Apr 9, in :13.60.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1.1F on Apr 9; 0 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/13	WRD	1.36364f D	sAlw20900n2l	3rd/7 -1L	90	6.2-1	b L	Outfinished for 2nd
9/18	PRM	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	2nd/7 -1½L	81	2.4-1	b LB	Second best
8/22	PRM	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	3rd/7 -¾L	84	3.3-1	b LB	Edged closer

5Prince DynastyJ. Brooks · E. WillisBrooks · WillisA896-1Fair 7-112%—89A
Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 89
Jockey J D Brooks 26% career 0-for-28 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Eddie D Willis 35% career 1-for-23 on dirt this meet (4%)
Also today · Jockey R6: Sheza Candy Wagon 20-1, R10: Jessys Dynasty 6-1 · Trainer R10: Jessys Dynasty 6-1
WON LAST
Last start was a win, in a 10-horse maiden special weight race at WRD at 15-1. J D Brooks takes over from Cody Rodger Smith in the saddle.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 51d back
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/6 WRD 1.36364f D MSW Won/10 89 15-1 b L Took command;held well

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/6	WRD	1.36364f D	MSW	Won/10	89	15-1	b L	Took command;held well

6Fly N Cowgirl★J. Cardenas · R. EsquedaCardenas · EsquedaA97 82 82▲▲+13@trip 976-1Fair 7-112%▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best97 82 82@trip 97A★ Best at the trip 97

Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 97 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 97 82 82

★ Best at the trip 97

Jockey Jacob Cardenas 32% career 1-for-18 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Robert Esqueda 15% career 1-for-9 on dirt this meet (11%)

WON LAST

Tops the field on speed figures, a 97 against 94 for the next best. Last start was a win, in a 6-horse maiden special weight race at WRD at 9-1.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

SHARP LAST OUT Took command; drew away last out, and it did it the right way.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 48d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/19	WRD	1½f D	sMdSpWt	Won/6	97	9.0-1	b L	Took command;drew away
9/28	WRD	1.81818f D	WRDstfCh G3	6th/7 -4½L	82	28-1	b L	Bmpd st;no threat
7/18	FMT	1.59091f D	sMdSpWt	3rd/9 -2½L	82	2.8-1	b L	Tight early;up for 3rd

7Mary Janes TrainJ. Torres · G. Quinones-SarmientoTorres · Quinones-SarmientoB89 87 80▲▲+8@trip 9015-1Fair 20-14%▲▲ Big jump +889 87 80@trip 90B

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · Best fig at today's trip 90 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 89 87 80

Jockey Jorge Torres 32% career 2-for-20 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Gerardo Quinones-Sarmiento

Also today · Jockey R4: Embrace The Rock 4-1, R6: Cyber Sunshine 15-1

Has moved up each time out, 80 to 87 to 89. Runs for $20,900 today after a $30,000 race last time.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 58d back

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 5 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/28	WRD	1.81818f D	WRDDbyChal30k	8th/9 -3L	89	63-1	b L	Up close early;faded
9/15	WRD	1.81818f D	DbyTrl 5000	6th/10 -2L	87	6.3-1	b L	Tight btwn;faded late
6/27	FMT	1.59091f D	Alw n2l	5th/7 -¾L	80	2.0-1	b L	Tough trip;good try

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

WRD · RACE 1

UPCOMING

State-Bred Allowance · $20,900 purse

Field

7 runners

Purse

$20,900

Post

1:00 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#2 · 29%

Allowance, for 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses, that have not won two races lifetime.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 350 Yards: 16.98

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #2 Electrifying (a tactical type, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 83 · 87 · 86. Backup is #4 Tres A Blood at 3-1. Use #3 Arock in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #2 ELECTRIFYING (2-1) — our number agrees.
#2 ELECTRIFYING — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (28.3% to their 28.0%).
#4 TRES A BLOOD — our #2 number, about right at the windows (21.5% to their 21.0%).
#3 AROCK — our #3 number, about right at the windows (14.7% to their 14.0%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Z Rexx, #2 Electrifying, #3 Arock.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Z Rexx2Electrifying3Arock4Tres A Blood5Prince Dynasty6Fly N Cowgirl7Mary Janes Train

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Z Rexx

Electrifying

Arock

Tres A Blood

Prince Dynasty

Fly N Cowgirl

Mary Janes Train

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