Pick sheet

Race 94:20 PM Trial

1.8F · Dirt · 9 entered. Our model's top pick, Mundaybluez, is 32% to win (morning line implies 26%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #4 Mundaybluez ML 2-1 Fair 2-1 Model #1 ▲ Up +6 ↕ Up and down 65–87

Jockey C. Benn · Trainer M. Norton · Dist 5: 1-3-1 · 35 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/28	IND	1.36364f D	MSW	Won/10 by ½	84	0.3-1	b L	Surged to front
7/29	IND	1½f D	MSW	2nd/10 by nk	87	0.9-1	b L	Step in; bmp rival
6/27	IND	1.59091f D	FutTrl14000	2nd/9 by nk	82	2.6-1	b L	Prominent; 2nd best

Case: Last out won in the MdSpWt at IND. Last Brisnet figures 84-87-82. 1-for-5 at the distance. M. Norton / C. Benn.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1.59091f). Never raced at Will Rogers Downs.

Contender #1 Miss D Meanor ML 3-1 Fair 5-1 Model #2 ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best ↕ Up and down 73–92

Jockey J. Mata · Trainer H. Ramirez · KEE 2: 0-2-0 · Dist 4: 0-2-0 · 28 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/5	WRD	1½f D	sMdSpWt	2nd/10 -2¼L	92	5.1-1	b L	Bobbled;rallied;up 2nd
9/14	WRD	1.59091f D	sFutTrl5000	2nd/8 by hd	90	67-1	b L	Awk st;vied;clear 2nd
7/3	FMT	1.59091f D	FutTrl5000	5th/8 -3L	73	34-1	b L	Rank early;evenly late

Case: Last out 2nd in the sMdSpWt at WRD. Last Brisnet figures 92-90-73. 0-for-4 at the distance. 0-for-2 at Will Rogers Downs. H. Ramirez / J. Mata.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1.59091f). 0-for-4 at the distance.

Use #7 Jess Danica ML 6-1 Fair 6-1 Model #3 ► Steady Last out 4th/10 -2L in the ValJunFuG3-G3 at PRM. Last Brisnet figures 82-82-74. 1-for-7 at the distance. S. Charette-Hill / J. Flores. Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1.59091f). Never raced at Will Rogers Downs.

Jockey J. Flores · Trainer S. Charette-Hill · Dist 7: 1-3-0 · 38 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	PRM	1.59091f D	ValJunFuG3 G3	4th/10 -2L	82	12-1	b LB	Bumped between start
9/6	PRM	1.59091f D	FutTrl8000	2nd/9	82	1.7-1	b LB	Led late; just missed
8/2	PRM	1.59091f D	Alw n2l	4th/5 -1½L	74	1.5-1	b LB	Broke in;weakened

Longshot #6 Tres Me Down ML 20-1 Fair 15-1 Model #6

Jockey O. Villa · Trainer J. Vane · KEE 1: 0-1-0 · Dist 2: 0-1-0 · 36 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	WRD	1.13636f D	MCL 15k	2nd/10 -½L	89	1.2-1	b L	Chased;up for 2nd
3/8	RP	1.13636f D	sMdSpWt	4th/10 -2L	70	6.1-1	b L	Drifted out early

Case: Last out 2nd in the Md15000 at WRD. Last Brisnet figures 89-70. 0-for-2 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Will Rogers Downs. J. Vane / O. Villa.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1.13636f). 0-for-2 at the distance.

Narrowing the field: A #1, #4, #8 · B #3, #5, #7 · C #2, #6, #9

Angles: #8 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (86 vs 98)

R9 WRD · Trial

4:20 PM ET · 400 Yards Dirt · $5,000 · 9 runners4:20 PM · 1.8f Dirt · 9 runners

Upcoming $5,000 · Trial

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Miss D MeanorJ. Mata · H. RamirezMata · RamirezA92 90 73▲▲+12↕3-1Fair 5-116%▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best92 90 73 ↕A2

Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 73–92 · Last 3 figs 92 90 73

Jockey Jaime Mata 26% career 1-for-17 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Hernesto Ramirez 32% career 2-for-43 on dirt this meet (5%)

Also today · Jockey R4: Coronado Bay Nh 20-1 · Trainer R4: Coronado Bay Nh 20-1, R6: Leaf On The Wind 5-1

Drops from maiden special weight to stakes nongraded. Finished 2nd in a 10-horse maiden special weight race at WRD, beaten 2¼ lengths.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Bobbled; rallied; up 2nd. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 75d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/5	WRD	1½f D	sMdSpWt	2nd/10 -2¼L	92	5.1-1	b L	Bobbled;rallied;up 2nd
9/14	WRD	1.59091f D	sFutTrl5000	2nd/8 by hd	90	67-1	b L	Awk st;vied;clear 2nd
7/3	FMT	1.59091f D	FutTrl5000	5th/8 -3L	73	34-1	b L	Rank early;evenly late

2DivinittyR. Olmstead · J. OlmsteadOlmstead · OlmsteadC76 84 83▼-5≡4-1Fair 7-112%▼ Down -576 84 83 ≡C

Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -5 · ≡ Steady figures 76–84 · Last 3 figs 76 84 83

Jockey Ryder Olmstead 14% career 0-for-19 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Jason L Olmstead 35% career 8-for-88 on dirt this meet (9%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Wise Lady 5-1, R4: Daylynn 10-1, R7: Miss Southern Perry 20-1, R8: Lacylyn 10-1 · Trainer R2: Wise Lady 5-1, R2: Cartier 3-1, R3: Miss Cyberlizeur 8-1, R3: Miss American 2-1 +14 more

Class relief: allowance last time, stakes nongraded today. Last out was 7th, 4¾ lengths behind the winner, in a 9-horse allowance race at WRD.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 236d ago)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/13	WRD	1½f D	Alw n3l	7th/9 -4¾L	76	69-1	b L	Off bit slow;no factor
8/30	PRM	1.13636f D	Clm 20k n2l	Won/6 by 1¼	84	2.5-1	b LB	Drift out; gamely
7/31	PRM	1.13636f D	MCL 15k	Won/8	83	0.8-1	b LB	Speed; kept clear

3Kj Wild LilyC. Esqueda · T. SteinEsqueda · SteinB90 76 77▲▲+1420-1Fair 50-12%▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best90 76 77B

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #9 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best · Last 3 figs 90 76 77

Jockey Christian Esqueda 29% career 3-for-47 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Tyler Stein 32% career 1-for-12 on dirt this meet (8%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Tres A Blood 3-1

Was running in allowance; today's stakes nongraded is an easier level on paper. Worked 1.1F in :13.60 on Feb 13, 2nd of 36 at the distance.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

TROUBLED TRIP Off slow; mild traffic last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 222d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	WRD	1½f D	Alw n2l	6th/10 -2¾L	90	48-1	b L	Off slow;mild traffic
9/6	PRM	1.59091f D	FutTrl8000	5th/9 -1¾L	76	29-1	b LB	Needed more
7/30	CBY	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	4th/6 -1L	77	2.9-1	b	Brk in;brshd;late gain

4MundaybluezC. Benn · M. NortonBenn · NortonA84 87 82▲+6↕2-1Fair 2-132%▲ Up +684 87 82 ↕A1

Card model 32% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +6 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 65–87 · Last 3 figs 84 87 82

Jockey Cordarelton J Benn 35% career 12-for-95 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Mallory Norton 26% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet

WON LAST

Winner of a 10-horse maiden special weight race at IND last time. Cordarelton J Benn takes over from Edgar Diaz in the saddle.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 40d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/28	IND	1.36364f D	MSW	Won/10 by ½	84	0.3-1	b L	Surged to front
7/29	IND	1½f D	MSW	2nd/10 by nk	87	0.9-1	b L	Step in; bmp rival
6/27	IND	1.59091f D	FutTrl14000	2nd/9 by nk	82	2.6-1	b L	Prominent; 2nd best

5My Flying EagleF. Calderon · G. ValdiviaCalderon · ValdiviaB95 77 83▲▲+1210-1Fair 10-18%▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best95 77 83B

Card model 8% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · Last 3 figs 95 77 83

Jockey Francisco Calderon 37% career 3-for-13 on dirt this meet (23%), #2 of 36 · Trainer Guillermo Valdivia 29% career 4-for-26 on dirt this meet (15%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Bp Southern Money 6-1, R5: Kisses N Candy 20-1, R6: Youve Got The Look 3-1, R7: Bp History Maker 4-1 · Trainer R4: Sherrys Relentless 20-1

WON LAST

Comes in off a victory in a 10-horse allowance race at WRD. A big drop, allowance to stakes nongraded, and worth asking why.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 249d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	WRD	1.36364f D	sAlw20900n2l	Won/10	95	4.2-1	b L	Speed;duel;prevailed
9/14	WRD	1.59091f D	sFutTrl5000	6th/8 -3¾L	77	18-1	b L	Pinched st;traffic
8/7	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	5th/10 -1¾L	83	36-1	b L	No rally;

6Tres Me DownLSO. Villa · J. VaneVilla · VaneC89 7020-1Fair 15-17%—89 70CLS
Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 89 70
LS
Longshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 7% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Oscar Villa 33% career 3-for-6 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jed H Vane 34% career ★ 12-for-28 on dirt this meet (43%), #2 of 46 ★ hot
Also today · Trainer R3: Relentless Chic 20-1, R4: Hott Take 8-1, R6: Hott Perfection 15-1, R7: Bp History Maker 4-1 +2 more
3rd of 10 at 1F on Sep 16, in :12.60. A big drop, maiden claiming $15,000 to stakes nongraded, and worth asking why.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 47d back
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/27 WRD 1.13636f D MCL 15k 2nd/10 -½L 89 1.2-1 b L Chased;up for 2nd
3/8 RP 1.13636f D sMdSpWt 4th/10 -2L 70 6.1-1 b L Drifted out early

7Jess DanicaJ. Flores · S. Charette-HillFlores · Charette-HillB82 82 74►6-1Fair 6-114%► Steady82 82 74B3

Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 82 82 74

Jockey James A Flores 32% career · Trainer Stacy Charette-Hill 30% career 2-for-17 on dirt this meet (12%)

Also today · Trainer R4: Embrace The Rock 4-1, R6: Cyber Sunshine 15-1

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE

Jockey switch: Garcia Rosendo E Pina last out, James A Flores today. Purse drops from $345,110 to $5,000 against its last start.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

TROUBLED TRIP Bumped between start last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 250d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	PRM	1.59091f D	ValJunFuG3 G3	4th/10 -2L	82	12-1	b LB	Bumped between start
9/6	PRM	1.59091f D	FutTrl8000	2nd/9	82	1.7-1	b LB	Led late; just missed
8/2	PRM	1.59091f D	Alw n2l	4th/5 -1½L	74	1.5-1	b LB	Broke in;weakened

8First Prized Jewel▼R. Vega · M. Chavez-GutierrezVega · Chavez-GutierrezA86 98 92▲▲+11↕8-1Fair 20-15%▲▲ Big jump +1186 98 92 ↕A▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (86 vs 98)

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 36–98 · Last 3 figs 86 98 92

▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (86 vs 98)

Jockey Randy Vega 27% career 2-for-57 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer Marco Adair Chavez-Gutierrez 14% career

Also today · Trainer R4: Vaquerita 4 3-1

Tops the field on speed figures, a 98 against 95 for the next best. Gets a new rider, Randy Vega replacing Ruben Castro.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 60d ago)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/22	WRD	1.59091f D	Alw n2l	4th/10 -½L	86	1.7-1	b	Bmpd st;yielded late
7/18	FMT	1.59091f D	SpeedhFuG3 G3	4th/9 -2L	98	30-1	b	Good try;needed more
7/3	FMT	1.59091f D	FutTrl5000	Won/8	92	19-1	b	Led;drew away late

9Wr Hott TrainM. Delgado · J. JoinerDelgado · JoinerC73 83 77►20-1Fair 30-13%► Steady73 83 77C

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 73 83 77

Jockey Mario Delgado 32% career 13-for-90 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Justin W Joiner 32% career ★ 5-for-25 on dirt this meet (20%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Electrifying 2-1, R4: Whoopsy 20-1, R6: Leaf On The Wind 5-1, R7: Penelope Cruisin 15-1 +2 more · Trainer R1: Electrifying 2-1, R4: Whoopsy 20-1, R6: Sheza Candy Wagon 20-1, R8: A Painted Fling 2-1 +1 more

Last out was 8th, 3¾ lengths behind the winner, in an 8-horse allowance race at WRD. Drops from allowance to stakes nongraded.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Shuffled st; no bid), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 69d ago)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	WRD	1.36364f D	sAlw20900n2l	8th/8 -3¾L	73	3.8-1	b L	Shuffled st;no bid
9/14	WRD	1.59091f D	sFutTrl5000	4th/8 -2¼L	83	16-1	b L	Bmpd st;no final kick
5/22	RP	1½f D	MSW	Won/8	77	9.4-1	b L	Strongest in duel

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

WRD · RACE 9

UPCOMING

Trial

Field

9 runners

Purse

$5,000

Post

4:20 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#4 · 32%

Stakes, for fillies, 2-year-olds.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 400 Yards: 19.42

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #4 Mundaybluez (a tactical type, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 84 · 87 · 82. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #1 Miss D Meanor at 3-1. Use #7 Jess Danica in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #4 MUNDAYBLUEZ (2-1) — our number agrees.
#4 MUNDAYBLUEZ — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (27.2% to their 26.2%).
#1 MISS D MEANOR — our #2 number, about right at the windows (20.1% to their 19.7%).
#2 DIVINITTY — our #4 number, about right at the windows (14.2% to their 15.7%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #6 TRES ME DOWN (20-1) — our fair 4.6% is above the morning line's 3.7%; supported by: top barn (34%) + jockey (33%) at 20-1 (a hot trainer-jockey pairing; on our own re-test it did not beat its odds)

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Miss D Meanor, #2 Divinitty, #3 Kj Wild Lily.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Miss D Meanor2Divinitty3Kj Wild Lily4Mundaybluez5My Flying Eagle6Tres Me Down7Jess Danica8First Prized Jewel9Wr Hott Train

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Jess Danica

Mundaybluez

Miss D Meanor

Divinitty

Kj Wild Lily

My Flying Eagle

Tres Me Down

First Prized Jewel

Wr Hott Train

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Bet types

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