R2 ZIA · Trial

2:32 PM ET · 350 Yards Dirt · $12,000 · 7 runners2:32 PM · 1.6f Dirt · 7 runners

Upcoming $12K · Trial

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Bogarts Dreamgirl▼★L. Martinez · M. RodriguezMartinez · RodriguezA54 79 98▼▼-33↕@trip 984-1Fair 8-111%▼▼ Big drop -3354 79 98 ↕@trip 98A▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (54 vs 79)★ Best at the trip 983

Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -33 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 54–98 · Best fig at today's trip 98 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 54 79 98

▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (54 vs 79)★ Best at the trip 98

Jockey Luis Martinez 33% career · Trainer Manuel Rodolfo Rodriguez 33% career

Also today · Jockey R3: Obsidian Panther 30-1, R4: Bogarts Brown Sugar 9-5, R5: Kings Landing 9-2, R6: Jd Heart Strings 8-1 · Trainer R3: Rr Maka Miracle 30-1, R3: Obsidian Panther 30-1, R4: Bogarts Brown Sugar 9-5, R5: Kings Landing 9-2 +1 more

Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 98, with 88 next best. Figures have slipped: 98, 79, 54 over its last three.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 62d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/24	ALB	1.81818f D	sFutTrl10000	5th/10 -1¼L	54	2.4-1	b L	Even effort
7/3	ALB	1.81818f D	sFutTrl10000	4th/10 -2L	79	0.6-1	b L	Came in strt;hung late
6/14	ALB	1.59091f D	sMtnTopJuv50k	2nd/8 -½L	98	16-1	b L	Clean trip; solid bid

2Daddies DiamondF. Zamora · J. RenteriaZamora · RenteriaC35 4320-1Fair 50-12%—35 43C
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 35 43
Jockey Francisco Zamora 14% career · Trainer Jacob Renteria 14% career
Also today · Jockey R1: Wall Street Logic 7-2, R6: Ciao Fore Now 6-1, R7: Jm Famousberry 15-1, R8: Mi Capitan 3-1 +4 more · Trainer R11: Luna Kiss 20-1
Finished 8th in a 9-horse stakes race at ALB, beaten 10 lengths.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 72d back
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/24 ALB 1.81818f D sFutTrl10000 8th/9 -10L 35 93-1 b L Off step slow
9/7 ALB 1.81818f D sMdSpWt 10th/10 -10L 43 49-1 b L Hopped; lost footing
3Chasing VenusN. Garcia Jr. · W. GilesGarcia Jr. · GilesB63 88@trip 886-1Fair 8-110%—63 88@trip 88B
Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 88 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 63 88
Jockey Noe Jr Garcia 33% career · Trainer Wesley T Giles 33% career ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R3: Cartel Fire Chick 10-1, R4: Holdmyhailo 6-1, R5: Thats Amoree 8-1, R7: Czar Catrina 4-1 +3 more · Trainer R3: Cartel Fire Chick 10-1, R4: Holdmyhailo 6-1, R5: Thats Amoree 8-1, R6: Ciao Fore Now 6-1 +5 more
◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE
Noe Jr Garcia takes over from Gabriel Medrano in the saddle. Last out was 4th, 3 lengths behind the winner, in a 10-horse stakes race at ALB.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
TROUBLED TRIP Bumped; late rally last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 58d ago)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/24 ALB 1.81818f D sFutTrl10000 4th/10 -3L 63 8.3-1 b L Bumped; late rally
8/13 ALB 1.59091f D fsMdSpWt Won/10 88 5.8-1 b L Bump;gd spd;won clear

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/24	ALB	1.81818f D	sFutTrl10000	8th/9 -10L	35	93-1	b L	Off step slow
9/7	ALB	1.81818f D	sMdSpWt	10th/10 -10L	43	49-1	b L	Hopped; lost footing

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/24	ALB	1.81818f D	sFutTrl10000	4th/10 -3L	63	8.3-1	b L	Bumped; late rally
8/13	ALB	1.59091f D	fsMdSpWt	Won/10	88	5.8-1	b L	Bump;gd spd;won clear

4Rc a Flashn CometR. Ortega · D. Gomez-BarrazaOrtega · Gomez-BarrazaB81 74 69▲+6@trip 818-1Fair 20-15%▲ Up +681 74 69@trip 81B

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +6 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 74 69

Jockey Raul Ortega 26% career · Trainer David M Gomez-Barraza 32% career

Also today · Jockey R10: Zooming Dynasty 8-1 · Trainer R1: Political Mystery 5-2, this race: Sonuva Butch 9-5, R3: Toppa The Moon 5-1, R3: Perrys Alibi 3-5 +5 more

60D LAYOFF

Drops from allowance to stakes nongraded. Changes barns, from Jorge A Morales-Flores to David M Gomez-Barraza.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 8d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/28	ALB	1.59091f D	sAlw35700n2x	5th/8 -2L	81	56-1	b L	Duel;wkn
7/3	ALB	1.81818f D	sFutTrl10000	7th/10 -3¾L	74	25-1	b L	Bumped after start
5/29	ALB	1.59091f D	sFutTrl10000	7th/10 -2¾L	69	4.1-1	b L	Ducked out start

5Sonuva ButchO. Andrade Jr. · D. Gomez-BarrazaAndrade Jr. · Gomez-BarrazaA74 74 77▼-59-5Fair 1-151%▼ Down -574 74 77A1

Card model 51% · Fair odds 1-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -5 · Last 3 figs 74 74 77

Jockey Oscar Jr Andrade 14% career · Trainer David M Gomez-Barraza 32% career

Also today · Jockey R1: Political Mystery 5-2, R3: Toppa The Moon 5-1, R4: Brookman 4-1, R5: Imma Dandy 2-1 +5 more · Trainer R1: Political Mystery 5-2, this race: Rc A Flashn Comet 8-1, R3: Toppa The Moon 5-1, R3: Perrys Alibi 3-5 +5 more

Runs for $12,000 today after a $1,061,369 race last time. Worked 1F in :12.00 on Sep 1, 3rd of 8 at the distance.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 60d ago)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	ALB	1.81818f D	sNMSFrFuRG1 G1	7th/8 -3¾L	74	27-1	b L	No bid
9/24	ALB	1.81818f D	sFutTrl10000	2nd/10 by hd	74	20-1	b L	Dueled; just missed
7/18	ALB	1.81818f D	sMdSpWt	Won/9	77	2.6-1	b L	Speed; handily

6Big Avery▼J. Enriquez · R. WilsonEnriquez · WilsonA70 85 82▼▼-12@trip 793-1Fair 5-117%▼▼ Big drop -1270 85 82@trip 79A▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (70 vs 85)2

Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -12 · Best fig at today's trip 79 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 70 85 82

▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (70 vs 85)

Jockey Jacob Enriquez 35% career · Trainer Renee Wilson 32% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R3: Jess Good Times 4-1, R4: Suspicious Rizzler 10-1, R5: Acrylic 8-5, R6: My Cousin Vinnee 4-1 +5 more · Trainer R3: Jess Good Times 4-1, R4: Suspicious Rizzler 10-1, R4: Mw Big Daddy Issues 15-1, R5: Acrylic 8-5 +5 more

Beaten ½ length for 2nd in a 9-horse stakes race at ALB.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Brush; outfinished. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 57d ago)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/24	ALB	1.81818f D	sFutTrl10000	2nd/9 -½L	70	0.7-1	b L	Brush; outfinished
7/19	ALB	1.81818f D	sZia Juv50k	5th/10 -3L	85	15-1	b L	Came in start; drifted
7/3	ALB	1.81818f D	sFutTrl10000	3rd/10 -1L	82	5.3-1	b L	Chased; couldn't gain

7Eye Have ClassC. Cardenas · A. VallesCardenas · VallesB79 72 63▲▲+10@trip 7315-1Fair 20-15%▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best79 72 63@trip 73B

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 73 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 72 63

Jockey Christian Cardenas 32% career · Trainer Albert Valles 22% career

Also today · Jockey R3: Rr Maka Miracle 30-1, R5: Jg Coby 2 15-1, R7: Sofi 20-1, R8: Franciscan 8-1 +2 more · Trainer R5: Jg Coby 2 15-1

LASIX 1STWON LAST

Has moved up each time out, 63 to 72 to 79. Gets a new rider, Christian Cardenas replacing Oscar Jr Andrade.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 99d ago)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	ALB	1.81818f D	sMd15000	Won/8	79	5.1-1	b	Dueled; prevailed
9/7	ALB	1.81818f D	sMdSpWt	5th/10 -3L	72	44-1	b	Bumped; squeezed start
7/3	ALB	1.81818f D	sFutTrl10000	8th/9 -5¾L	63	53-1	b	Broke slowly; crowded

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

ZIA · RACE 2

UPCOMING

Trial

Field

7 runners

Purse

$12,000

Post

2:32 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#5 · 51%

Stakes, for 2-year-olds, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 350 Yards: 17.07

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #5 Sonuva Butch (a tactical type, M/L 9-5). Recent figures: 74 · 74 · 77. Backup is #6 Big Avery at 3-1. Use #1 Bogarts Dreamgirl in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #5 SONUVA BUTCH (9-5) — our number agrees.
#5 SONUVA BUTCH — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 35.5%, they've got 30.5%.
#6 BIG AVERY — our #2 number, about right at the windows (21.9% to their 21.3%).
#1 BOGARTS DREAMGIRL — our #3 number, about right at the windows (15.0% to their 17.1%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#5 SONUVA BUTCH — we make it 35.5%, the morning line works out to 30.5%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Bogarts Dreamgirl, #2 Daddies Diamond, #3 Chasing Venus.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Bogarts Dreamgirl2Daddies Diamond3Chasing Venus4Rc A Flashn Comet5Sonuva Butch6Big Avery7Eye Have Class

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Sonuva Butch

Bogarts Dreamgirl

Daddies Diamond

Chasing Venus

Rc A Flashn Comet

Big Avery

Eye Have Class

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Bet types

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1ST LEG .50 PICK 4

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