R1 ZIA · Claiming $10,000

2:05 PM ET · 870 Yards Dirt · $29,500 · 10 runners2:05 PM · 4.0f Dirt · 10 runners

Upcoming $30K · Claiming $10,000

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #9 Discreet Tiger (20-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 96 from 6 tries. Not in our top three.

  1. 1L Squared▼T. Hebert · J. MarlinHebert · MarlinB91 92 66▲+7↕@trip 9315-1Fair 10-19%▲ Up +791 92 66 ↕@trip 93B▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

    Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +7 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 66–93 · Best fig at today's trip 93 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 91 92 66

    ▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
    Jockey T J Hebert 32% career · Trainer Joy I Marlin 25% career
    CLASS UP

    Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power. Last out was 6th, 4 lengths behind the winner, in an 8-horse optional claiming race at ALB.

    PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 266d back)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/16ALB3.95455f DOC 20k6th/8 -4L9113-1b LDropped back
    9/11ALB3.95455f DClm 12k b3rd/8 -½L923.9-1b LDueled; held 3rd
    8/16ALB7f DOC 15k b6th/7 -3½L6619-1b LPressed 5w;leveled off
  2. 2Political MysteryO. Andrade Jr. · D. Gomez-BarrazaAndrade Jr. · Gomez-BarrazaA88 78 77▲▲+12@trip 885-2Fair 3-126%▲▲ Big jump +1288 78 77@trip 88A1

    Card model 26% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · Best fig at today's trip 88 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 88 78 77

    Jockey Oscar Jr Andrade 14% career · Trainer David M Gomez-Barraza 32% career
    Also today · Jockey R2: Sonuva Butch 9-5, R3: Toppa The Moon 5-1, R4: Brookman 4-1, R5: Imma Dandy 2-1 +5 more · Trainer R2: Rc A Flashn Comet 8-1, R2: Sonuva Butch 9-5, R3: Toppa The Moon 5-1, R3: Perrys Alibi 3-5 +5 more
    ★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

    Winner of an 8-horse $10,000 claiming race at ALB last time. Has moved up each time out, 77 to 78 to 88.

    PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
    SHARP LAST OUT Chart comment from the last start: 3w; bid; drew clear late.
    WORKS SHARP 3f in :36.80 on Sep 16 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/9ALB3.95455f DsClm10000bWon/8 by ½886.6-1L3w;bid;drew clear late
    8/13ALB3.95455f DClm 10k n3l2nd/8 -3L781.3-1LVied;stayed on;willing
    6/20ALB1.81818f DsAlw35700n3l8th/9 -3½L7714-1LNo threat
  3. 3Run Like Da DevilA. Fierro · B. StroudFierro · StroudC71 80 77▼▼-11@trip 909-2Fair 7-113%▼▼ Big drop -1171 80 77@trip 90C3

    Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -11 · Best fig at today's trip 90 (9 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 80 77

    Jockey Angel A Fierro 21% career · Trainer Brian Stroud 29% career
    Also today · Jockey R11: Myfavoritenineeleven 4-1
    60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK

    A step up in company: optional claiming before, $10,000 claiming today. A 86-day gap since its last race.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS SHARP 3f in :35.60 on Mar 28 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    8/6RET3.95455f DOC 20k3rd/7 by hd712.3-1b LVied 2w; weakened
    6/27RET2½f DGaryBaberS47k10th/10 -4¾L8046-1b LNo factor
    5/8HOU3.95455f DOC 20k5th/8 -7½L7715-1b L5 wide upper stretch
  4. 4Dazzlin DramaLSC. Ramos · A. LewisRamos · LewisC78 67 83►@trip 9515-1Fair 10-19%► Steady78 67 83@trip 95CLS

    Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 95 (10 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 67 83

    LS

    Longshot read: 15-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 9% against a line of 5%. A read, not a bet.

    Jockey Christian Ramos 34% career · Trainer Arnold Lewis 26% career
    Also today · Jockey R3: Perrys Alibi 3-5, R4: Mw Big Daddy Issues 15-1, R5: Hot Bad Boy 12-1, R6: Seacret Society 15-1 +2 more
    60D LAYOFF

    Was 8th of 8 at the first call last time. Off 63 days since the last start.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 22d ago
    RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    8/29GIL3.95455f DGCFAAllBrd35k8th/8 -8L784.5-1LTrailed thoughout
    8/6RET3.95455f DOC 20k5th/7 -5L675.2-1L5w stretch; no threat
    7/19GIL3.95455f DAlw ncWon/8835.3-1LDueled btwn kick clear
  5. 5Mitole Two SocksL. Valenzuela · S. BuechlerValenzuela · BuechlerA84 89 94▲+5↕@trip 948-1Fair 12-18%▲ Up +584 89 94 ↕@trip 94A

    Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #7 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +5 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 55–94 · Best fig at today's trip 94 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 84 89 94

    Jockey Luis A Valenzuela 35% career · Trainer Simon J Buechler 26% career
    Also today · Jockey this race: Reconciling Force 30-1, R11: Hope For Dash 30-1
    180D+ LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK

    Freshened 188 days. Watch how its recent works look. 3 wins from 7 starts at this distance.

    PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS SHARP 3f in :36.60 on Mar 21 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    4/26SRP3.95455f DAlw b4th/7 -1L844.5-1b LStp slw;press;yielded
    3/28SUN3.95455f DAlw b6th/8 -2½L899.9-1b LChased 5-6w;flattened
    8/10WYO3.95455f DAlw n3lWon/8 by nk944.3-1b LBLate effort for win
  6. 6Wall Street LogicF. Zamora · H. AldavazZamora · AldavazA89 81 84▲+6≡@trip 917-2Fair 9-218%▲ Up +689 81 84 ≡@trip 91A2

    Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +6 · ≡ Steady figures 81–89 · Best fig at today's trip 91 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 89 81 84

    Jockey Francisco Zamora 14% career · Trainer Hermengildo Aldavaz 22% career
    Also today · Jockey R2: Daddies Diamond 20-1, R6: Ciao Fore Now 6-1, R7: Jm Famousberry 15-1, R8: Mi Capitan 3-1 +4 more · Trainer R8: Don Yuyo 8-1
    ★ FASTEST WORK

    Drops from $12,500 claiming to $10,000 claiming. The Aug 7 work, 3F in :35.60, was the best time at that distance that morning.

    PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 85d back)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/4ALB3.95455f DClm 12k b2nd/7 -2½L895.7-1b LBmp brk;3p;improved
    8/29ALB3.95455f DClm 12k b3rd/8 -4L816.2-1bBid; angled out str
    8/14ALB3.95455f DClm 12k b4th/8 -6¾L848.1-1b LOff slow; improved pos
  7. 7No Errors HereA. Medellin · A. CardenasMedellin · CardenasC84 72 75▲▲+10@trip 8410-1Fair 12-17%▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best84 72 75@trip 84C

    Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 84 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 84 72 75

    Jockey A Medellin 33% career · Trainer Arnulfo Cardenas 21% career
    Also today · Jockey R8: Love Trucken 5-1 · Trainer R8: Love Trucken 5-1
    WON LAST

    Comes in off a victory in an 8-horse $10,000 claiming race at ALB.

    PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
    SHARP LAST OUT Last time the chart read: Tracked; drew clear.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 45 days ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/3ALB3.95455f DClm 10k n2lWon/8845.5-1LTracked; drew clear
    7/4ALB3.95455f DAlw n2l5th/8 -5½L7214-1LWide; mild rally str
    5/1SRP3.95455f DAlw n2l5th/8 -6L7515-1b LDrftdout4p; even bid
  8. 8Sr Fear the StormD. Torres · T. JohnsonTorres · JohnsonB85 86 83►≡5-1Fair 8-110%► Steady85 86 83 ≡B

    Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 81–86 · Last 3 figs 85 86 83

    Jockey Daniel Antonio Torres 32% career · Trainer Tammy K Johnson 31% career
    Also today · Jockey R10: De Elegant Aj 6-1 · Trainer R9: Uncle Eds Idea 12-1, R11: Ttaannkk 6-1
    60D LAYOFF

    Goes 870 yards after running 400 yards last time. Raises its level, optional claiming last time and $10,000 claiming now.

    PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
    WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 16d back

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    8/22ALB1.81818f DOC 15k6th/7 -2¾L8520-1b LBroke well; faded
    6/20ALB1.81818f DClm 10k2nd/9 -1L863.4-1b LRalllied; up for place
    6/6ALB2f DClm 12k b2nd/9 by hd834.1-1b LBid; best of others
  9. 9Discreet Tiger▼★E. Medellin · E. Cadena Jr.Medellin · Cadena Jr.B101 91 89▲▲+15↕@trip 9620-1<1%▲▲ Big jump +15 · career best101 91 89 ↕@trip 96B▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises★ Best at the trip 96

    Card model <1% · Our #9 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +15 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 78–101 · Best fig at today's trip 96 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 101 91 89

    ▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises★ Best at the trip 96
    Jockey Erick Medellin 33% career · Trainer Emilio Jr Cadena
    CLASS DROPWON LAST

    Owns the highest recent figure here at 101. Figures are climbing: 89, 91, 101 over its last three.

    PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 122 days ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/9ALB4.54545f DClm 8k bWon/81013.3-1LKept to task;held late
    9/11ALB3.95455f DClm 12k b4th/8 -1L9112-1L4;5-w; lacked rally
    8/22ALB3.95455f DClm 7k b5th/8 -1½L894.7-1LStalked; faltered late
  10. 10Reconciling Force▲▼L. Valenzuela · Z. QuezadaValenzuela · QuezadaC68 66 65▼-4@trip 8430-1<1%▼ Down -468 66 65@trip 84C▲ Lone speed on early pace▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

    Card model <1% · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -4 · Best fig at today's trip 84 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 66 65

    ▲ Lone speed on early pace▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
    Jockey Luis A Valenzuela 35% career · Trainer Zachary Quezada 17% career
    Also today · Jockey this race: Mitole Two Socks 8-1, R11: Hope For Dash 30-1
    180D+ LAYOFF

    New trainer: Jesus J Uranga had it last time, Zachary Quezada now. Returns from a 272-day break, the biggest in the field.

    PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
    WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on May 4; 2 works in 30d

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    2/1LA4½f DClm 3k4th/7 -1½L685.7-1b LVied 3w; needed more
    1/11LA4½f DClm 3k2nd/5 -2½L662.8-1b LChased winnr;no match
    12/7LRC5f DClm 6k8th/8 -7½L6532-1b LDueled outside; tired

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks
1 2 3
Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair
The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?
The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72
Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕
≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★
Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips
Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
¼FINISHSTART870 YARDS · DIRT · main1-turn

ZIA · RACE 1

UPCOMING

Claiming $10,000

Field
10 runners
Purse
$29,500
Post
2:05 PM ET
Pace
Pace Vacuum
Card model top pick
#2 · 26%

Claiming $10,000, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won two races recently.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 870 Yards: 44.2

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #2 Political Mystery (a tactical type, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 88 · 78 · 77. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #6 Wall Street Logic at 7-2. Use #3 Run Like Da Devil in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

  • Market favourite #2 POLITICAL MYSTERY (5-2) — our number agrees.
  • #2 POLITICAL MYSTERY — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (24.8% to their 22.6%).
  • #6 WALL STREET LOGIC — our #2 number, about right at the windows (19.9% to their 17.6%).
  • #3 RUN LIKE DA DEVIL — our #3 number, about right at the windows (13.9% to their 14.4%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

  • Longshot the model rates above its line: #4 DAZZLIN DRAMA (15-1) — our fair 6.3% is above the morning line's 4.9%; needs the trip to fall right.
Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 L Squared, #2 Political Mystery, #3 Run Like Da Devil.

Lead
none
Press
none
Stalk
none
Close
none
No style yet
10Reconciling Force951L Squared2Political Mystery3Run Like Da Devil4Dazzlin Drama5Mitole Two Socks6Wall Street Logic7No Errors Here8Sr Fear The Storm9Discreet Tiger

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

10
Reconciling Force
95

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

6
Wall Street Logic
7
10
Reconciling Force
6
1
L Squared
0
2
Political Mystery
0
3
Run Like Da Devil
0
4
Dazzlin Drama
0
5
Mitole Two Socks
0
7
No Errors Here
0
8
Sr Fear The Storm
0
9
Discreet Tiger
0
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