★ Distance horse: #5 Big Morning Breeze (15-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 91 from 2 tries. Not in our top three.
1Jd Heart Strings▼L. Martinez · M. RodriguezMartinez · RodriguezA62 79 80▼▼-18@trip 808-1Fair 4-120%
▼▼ Big drop -1862 79 80@trip 80A▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (62 vs 79)3Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -18 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 62 79 80
▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (62 vs 79)Also today · Jockey R2: Bogarts Dreamgirl 4-1, R3: Obsidian Panther 30-1, R4: Bogarts Brown Sugar 9-5, R5: Kings Landing 9-2 · Trainer R2: Bogarts Dreamgirl 4-1, R3: Rr Maka Miracle 30-1, R3: Obsidian Panther 30-1, R4: Bogarts Brown Sugar 9-5 +1 moreFigures have slipped: 80, 79, 62 over its last three. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 62 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/24 ALB 1.81818f D sFutTrl10000 3rd/9 -3½L 62 7.8-1 b L Steady effort 7/3 ALB 1.81818f D sFutTrl10000 2nd/9 -2L 79 14-1 b L Broke out; no match 5/29 ALB 1.59091f D sFutTrl10000 Won/9 80 17-1 b L Broke in; dueled; best 2My Cousin Vinnee▼J. Enriquez · R. WilsonEnriquez · WilsonA64 824-1Fair 5-229%
—64 82A▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (64 vs 82)1Card model 29% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 64 82
▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (64 vs 82)Also today · Jockey R2: Big Avery 3-1, R3: Jess Good Times 4-1, R4: Suspicious Rizzler 10-1, R5: Acrylic 8-5 +5 more · Trainer R2: Big Avery 3-1, R3: Jess Good Times 4-1, R4: Suspicious Rizzler 10-1, R4: Mw Big Daddy Issues 15-1 +5 moreBeaten 2½ lengths for 3rd in a 9-horse stakes race at ALB.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.TROUBLED TRIP Brush; steady effiort last out; the speed figure already reflects it.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 57 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/24 ALB 1.81818f D sFutTrl10000 3rd/9 -2½L 64 37-1 b L Brush; steady effiort 3/14 SUN 1.36364f D sTrial 4th/10 -1¾L 82 1.9-1 b L Broke in; late kick 3Jessys Sugar DaddyJ. Flores · L. HinesFlores · HinesB78 79 53▲▲+12@trip 5310-1Fair 7-113%
▲▲ Big jump +1278 79 53@trip 53BCard model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · Best fig at today's trip 53 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 79 53
Also today · Jockey R3: Mr Frankie 15-1, R4: Zoomin Thru Juarez 12-1, R8: Big Fantasy 8-1, R10: Lil Perry Wagon 7-2 +1 more★ FASTEST WORKClass relief: maiden special weight last time, stakes nongraded today. A 48-day gap since its last race.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Apr 19 (1.1F in :13.80), 0 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/13 ALB 1.81818f D sMdSpWt 5th/10 -2L 78 4.1-1 L Gave way; 8/14 ALB 1.81818f D sMdSpWt 2nd/8 -1L 79 6.9-1 L Rallyd;up late for 2nd 5/3 RP 1.59091f D MSW 8th/10 -3L 53 12-1 b L Crowded inward at st 4Ciao Fore NowF. Zamora · W. GilesZamora · GilesB59 81 38▼▼-12↕@trip 816-1Fair 7-222%
▼▼ Big drop -1259 81 38 ↕@trip 81B2Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -12 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 38–94 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 59 81 38
Also today · Jockey R1: Wall Street Logic 7-2, R2: Daddies Diamond 20-1, R7: Jm Famousberry 15-1, R8: Mi Capitan 3-1 +4 more · Trainer R2: Chasing Venus 6-1, R3: Cartel Fire Chick 10-1, R4: Holdmyhailo 6-1, R5: Thats Amoree 8-1 +5 more★ FASTEST WORKTops the field on speed figures, a 94 against 91 for the next best. Winless in 4 starts at this distance.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Hopped; dueled), and the figure already reflects it.WORKS SHARP 1f in :12.00 on May 23 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/24 ALB 1.81818f D sFutTrl10000 2nd/10 -½L 59 7.8-1 b L Hopped; dueled 8/21 ALB 1.59091f D fsMdSpWt 3rd/10 by nk 81 2.2-1 b L Drift;late gain;caught 7/3 ALB 1.81818f D sFutTrl10000 9th/9 -12L 38 27-1 b L Reared; off slowly 5Big Morning Breeze★LSO. Andrade Jr. · D. Gomez-BarrazaAndrade Jr. · Gomez-BarrazaA80 73 91►@trip 9115-1Fair 6-113%
► Steady80 73 91@trip 91A★ Best at the trip 91LSCard model 13% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 91 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 73 91
★ Best at the trip 91LSLongshot read: 15-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 13% against a line of 9%. A read, not a bet.
Also today · Jockey R1: Political Mystery 5-2, R2: Sonuva Butch 9-5, R3: Toppa The Moon 5-1, R4: Brookman 4-1 +5 more · Trainer R1: Political Mystery 5-2, R2: Rc A Flashn Comet 8-1, R2: Sonuva Butch 9-5, R3: Toppa The Moon 5-1 +5 morePurse drops from $100,000 to $12,000 against its last start. 5th last time, 2 lengths back, in a field of 8.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 57d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/11 ALB 1.81818f D sNMStFairJu100k 5th/8 -2L 80 9.9-1 b L Hop brk;chase;outkickd 9/24 ALB 1.81818f D sFutTrl10000 3rd/10 -1L 73 11-1 b L Dueled; good try 7/25 ALB 1½f D sMdSpWt Won/10 91 1.9-1 b L A complete runaway 6Seacret SocietyC. Ramos · R. WilsonRamos · WilsonB78 84 77►@trip 7715-1<1%
► Steady78 84 77@trip 77BCard model <1% · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 77 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 84 77
Also today · Jockey R1: Dazzlin Drama 15-1, R3: Perrys Alibi 3-5, R4: Mw Big Daddy Issues 15-1, R5: Hot Bad Boy 12-1 +2 more · Trainer R2: Big Avery 3-1, R3: Jess Good Times 4-1, R4: Suspicious Rizzler 10-1, R4: Mw Big Daddy Issues 15-1 +5 more60D LAYOFFRenee Wilson takes over the training from Clinton T Crawford. Freshened 104 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 29d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 7/19 ALB 1.81818f D sZia Juv50k 9th/10 -4½L 78 14-1 b L Broke in; tight early 7/3 ALB 1.81818f D sFutTrl10000 4th/9 -¾L 84 69-1 b L Away well; vied; hung 5/29 ALB 1.59091f D sFutTrl10000 5th/9 -3L 77 20-1 b L Brushed start; evenly 7Dashing Cash Dasher▼J. Enriquez · D. MeridythEnriquez · MeridythC46 8930-1Fair 30-13%
—46 89C▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (46 vs 89)Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 46 89
▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (46 vs 89)Also today · Jockey R4: Sheza Big Daddy Too 3-1, R7: Flashtoglory 3-5, R9: Naughty Politics 7-2, R11: Lil Bit Flash N Dash 3-1 · Trainer R4: Sheza Big Daddy Too 3-1, R7: Flashtoglory 3-5Gets a new rider, Jose Luis Enriquez replacing Raul Ortega. Finished 9th in a 10-horse stakes race at ALB, beaten 5¾ lengths.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 10d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/24 ALB 1.81818f D sFutTrl10000 9th/10 -5¾L 46 46-1 b L Drifted in 6/12 ALB 1.36364f D sMdSpWt 5th/10 -3¾L 89 16-1 b Late gain
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
ZIA · RACE 6
UPCOMINGTrial
Stakes, for 2-year-olds, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.
Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.
● Breed: Quarter Horse
● Track record at 350 Yards: 17.07
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #2 My Cousin Vinnee (a tactical type, M/L 4-1). Recent figures: 64 · 82. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #4 Ciao Fore Now at 6-1. Use #1 Jd Heart Strings in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #2 MY COUSIN VINNEE (4-1) — our number agrees.
- #2 MY COUSIN VINNEE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (30.4% to their 28.5%).
- #4 CIAO FORE NOW — our #2 number, about right at the windows (22.4% to their 20.3%).
- #1 JD HEART STRINGS — our #3 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 19.0%, they've got 15.8%.
Model vs the morning line
- #1 JD HEART STRINGS — we make it 19.0%, the morning line works out to 15.8%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
- Longshot the model rates above its line: #5 BIG MORNING BREEZE (15-1) — our fair 10.8% is above the morning line's 8.9%; needs the trip to fall right.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.
and works against #1 Jd Heart Strings, #2 My Cousin Vinnee, #3 Jessys Sugar Daddy.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
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